Operation Oil Theft: Month 4, Week 3, Day 1.5.

I really should have done a mid-week update because it's almost been two weeks in one in Libya.

Due to the blitzkrieg style bombing of Tripoli the previous week (4/6/11 - 11/6/11) and the arguments over Syria international support for the NATO campaign is at it's lowest ever. Realistically there are now only three nations that support the operation; Britain, France and Qatar and France is beginning to wobble. International support was further undermined by incidents where NATO bombing killed both civilians and rebels and the government counter offensive which showed that on their own the rebels are incapable of overthrowing the Libyan government and too disorganised to run Libya should they overthrow the government.

The NATO campaign has also come under internal pressure from within the nations that are taking part. Apart from the legal challenge in America the head of Britain's Royal Navy warned that if Britain were to continue the mission in Libya beyond September 2011 it will have to cut other operations such as training, anti-piracy operations in the Indian Ocean or anti-drug operations in the Caribbean. As a result NATO has been trying to keep a low profile in Libya. Matters came to a head though on Thursday (16/6/11) when Muammer Qaddafi offered to hold internationally supervised, democratic elections within three months and step down if he lost. As with all other offers of a peaceful solution the rebels quickly turned it down because as a loose group of fascists and monarchists their focus is on killing Qaddafi not building a free and democratic Libya.

This prompted NATO to re-intensify it's bombing campaign on Friday (17/6/11) in order to send the message that it is still united and committed to the overthrow of Qaddafi. However behind the scenes the coalition (Britain, France, Qatar) have started discussing with other nations like Germany and South Africa the possibility of allowing Qaddafi to remain in power but send in a peace keeping force to keep the rebels and the government apart. This would be a terrible idea because although in terms of territory the rebels now control about 55% of Libya in terms of population they only control about 35% of the country and that doesn't include the large area in the centre of the country which is Qaddafi's tribal home. So introducing a peace keeping force will, at best, lead to the country effectively partitioned into three countries. At worst it will bring about a protracted, chaotic and violent tribal conflict. Both of these scenarios appeal to the coalition because the rebels control the parts of Libya with oil in it. The more chaotic the country becomes the lower the price the rebels will be able to sell that oil for boosting the profits of the coalition.