The UK Election: Nearly Over.

In May 2010 the UK experienced something of a coup d'etat. The Labour government was overthrown and replaced by a coalition of the Conservative Party and the Liberal Democrats (ConDem) that functioned as something of a government of national unity. One of the first acts of the ConDems was to introduce a 5 year, fixed term Parliaments in order to prevent it being overthrown by the mass protests and widespread rioting that followed.

The first part of the ConDem's mission was to carry out a mass program of right-wing social engineering that fundamentally changed the relationship between the British public and the state under the guise of "Austerity."

Probably the most widely felt element of this was the Health and Social Care Act that was eventually passed in 2012.

In its initial form this planned to scrap the legal obligation on the state to provide healthcare to the public. This obligation is the linchpin that holds the National Health Service (NHS) together. Without it the state wouldn't even have to provide a US-style Medicaid system which would see the government acting as an insurer of last resort in an entirely private healthcare system. Sadly I think what finally convinced the ConDems to abandon the plan was a realisation that without an obligation for the state to put taxpayers money into the healthcare system there would be no way that all the private companies that the act opened the healthcare system up could make vast profits.

Over the course of the ConDem government the NHS has undergone vast, repeated and unnecessary restructuring programs intended to take the system to breaking point and have increased the involvement of private, for profit companies by 100%. The Conservatives have made quite clear that if re-elected they intend to spend a further GBP8bn to increase the role of private healthcare leaving the UK with a NHS in name only.

A more pernicious element of the ConDems mission has been the Welfare Reform Act that eventually passed in 2012. This has shifted the UK's welfare state from being a legitimate safety net for the sick and unemployed to a system simply designed to deny access to as many people as possible. For example it has done away with long term payments to people with long term medical conditions by limiting payments to 1 year. In its place it brought in harsh new medical assessments carried out by the for the profit company Atos that has not only seen people with congenital defects such as Downs Syndrome but also those in comas and the dead classified as fit for work.

The ConDem's have boasted about how this new system has reduced the number of people applying for sickness benefits claiming that it has deterred fraudsters. However from my experience in dealing with people with mental health problems the last thing you want to do with people suffering from high levels of paranoia and delusion is tell them that the government is out to get them. Therefore the people who are the most likely to be deterred by this new system are not the fraudsters and the scroungers but the people who are most legitimately in need of help. I am actually seriously worried about how many of those who have been deterred from applying for help under the new system but are totally unfit for work have been forced into poverty and homelessness as a result.

Similarly the system for unemployment benefits has shifted from providing training and support for people to find work into a mechanism for reducing the amount of money paid to people by invented new ways to sanction them. For example under the new system to qualify for unemployment benefit you must attend mandatory training sessions. From what I've heard these sessions are completely useless with many of them spending five weeks on how to write a CV. This is obviously great for the private, for profit companies such as A4E that provide these training courses because they're effectively being paid by the government to do absolutely nothing at all. It is also great for the ConDems because with the training courses being so pointless people quickly become frustrated with them and stop turning up providing an excuse to stop paying them. This increase in benefit sanctions appear to have been the main driving force behind a massive increase in poverty and the use of food banks which are essentially charities handing out food to the starving.

The most dangerous element of the act though has been the introduction of work placements. This sees benefit claimants being forced to work for large private companies for free. This idea was sold to the public as a way for workers who have to get up at dawn to go to work as a way to get back at their unemployed neighbours who get lay in bed with their curtains closed. However if your boss can get an unemployed person to do your job for free how long do you think they are going to keep paying you to do your job?

It is perhaps no surprise then that the ConDem's welfare reforms have coincided with a massive increase in zero-hours contracts. These allow companies to employ people but not actually pay them for doing any work or providing them with any of the legal protections that are normally afforded to workers. The welfare reforms have also seen a massive increase in the self-employed. A large number of these people tend to have set up business providing services such as construction and driving etc to companies that used to employ them directly. However because they're now self-employed no-one has to worry about things like paying them the minimum wage.

The purpose of all this has been to get the British public so beaten down that they don't dare question their leaders because when every day you're struggling for survival you don't have any energy left to think about anything else. For example under the ConDems the UK has gone to war in Libya, very nearly gone to war in Syria and finally had to go to war in Iraq to fight the people they were supporting in Syria. This has all contributed to a collapse in the global price of oil that has reduced the UK government's revenues and the revenues of all the pension companies that are invested in the oil industry. 

However it is unlikely you would have noticed any of this in a country where political discussion has been replaced by people just shouting slogans like; "Austerity!", "Europe!" or "Immigrants!" seemingly at random.

In one way this part of the ConDem's mission has been a complete success because 'Austerity' has become a sort of a religious dogma that no political party will dare question and certainly none of the main political parties at this election are proposing a repeal of the ConDem's social engineering.

However on another level it has been a complete failure because after a year or two the ConDem's finally realised that in Britain's consumption based economy which relies on people being able to afford to buy things making everyone poor destroys the whole system. So around 2013 the ConDems abandoned their plan to eliminate the deficit and half the national debt by 2015. Instead they quietly adopted Labour's policy of halving the deficit and gradually reducing the national debt. With a coalition of two of the main parties implementing the economic plan of the third main party this really completed the government of national unity.

The second part of the ConDems mission was to build up the UK Independence Party (UKIP) as a protest movement to force a fundamental change in Britain's relationship with the European Union (EU). After all some of these EU nations sign up to funny notions such as democracy, workers rights and human rights. Then once Britain's relationship with the EU had been renegotiated the plan was for the ConDem's to be replaced by a pro-EU Labour majority government which would smooth over the rift.

This part of the mission has been a complete failure because rather then causing the needle to skip from the record and silence to fall Britain's great threat to storm out of the EU party was rather drowned out by the sound of glasses clinking and polite small talk as the EU party continued unabated. So without an EU renegotiation taking place the issue has festered giving momentum to UKIP who have grown from a fringe protest group into a political party holding Parliamentary seats.

With the master plan falling to bits the rise of UKIP has triggered a substantial rise in small minority parties. You could describe this as being like the seeds of a dandelion being blown across fertile soil causing a lush and vibrant democracy to spring up. I though prefer to think of it as the UK's democracy being shattered and falling into increasingly small, nasty and irrelevant fragments;

The Green Party: Apparently their policy on human trafficking is to kidnap someones kids leading to four people getting shot right in the middle of the COP19 Summit. As a result I think they will be extremely lucky to hold onto the single seat the currently hold even if in their wildest dreams they might gain two more in Bristol and Norwich. Beyond those three areas though if you want to support them I think you'd be better off giving them a pound rather then your vote. After all I'm sure they appreciate the importance of needing to let things grow.

Plaid Cymru: The Party of Wales only compete in Wales' 40 seats so even if they succeed in winning 100% of the seats they contest they will still fall far short of dominating the 627 seat Parliament. As they're free to challenge 'Austerity' they may shave a couple of seats from Labour but unlike in Scotland their nationalism puts a lot of people off so Labour may be able to shave a couple of seats off them. Overall I think we're looking at a maximum swing of 5 seats either way. The Conservatives don't win in Wales.

The Scottish National Party (SNP): Less then a year ago the SNP didn't just lose the Scottish independence referendum but were utterly humiliated in it. Initially they were offered something called "Devolution Max" but turned it down in favour of allow 16 year olds to vote. Despite the UK Establishment desperately trying to breathe life into the SNP's campaign through Royal visits and fake opinion polls the SNP didn't even come close to winning and had Devolution Max imposed on them anyway. Since then oil has dropped below USD50 per barrel completely destroying the SNP's economic plan.

However it appears that facts and figures don't matter when you wrap yourself in the flag and define yourself by what you hate so despite their catalogue of failures the SNP's popularity has continued to grow in Scotland mainly amongst voters who seem to think they're in some sort of second round of the independence referendum.

The worst case scenario that Labour are predicting is that the will lose all of their 40 Scottish seats to the SNP. Along with other races nationally this will be enough to force Labour into second place giving a Conservative minority the first chance of forming a coalition. However it is more likely that the SNP will win all of the Liberal Democrats 11 Scottish seats and take 10-15 seats from Labour ending up with 30+ seats. This will be enough to prevent Labour from securing a majority government and will make it more difficult for them to quickly form a coalition government.

The UK Independence Party (UKIP): Even if they see a 200% increase in the number or seats they hold those 6 seats will still leave UKIP far short of the 323 seats they need to form a majority government. Therefore at this election UKIP's main role is going to be that of spoiler. In areas such as mine in London and the south-east UKIP are likely to split the Conservative vote creating an opportunity for Labour to pick up a handful of extra seats. However in the north of England where Labour have largely abandoned their traditional white, working class vote in favour of ethnic minorities and recent immigrants UKIP are likely to split the Labour vote allowing the Conservatives to pick up a few extra seats. There are more marginal seats in the north then there are in the south-east.

So looking at the new, smaller parties alongside the three main, established parties I can honestly say that I don't any of them or any combination of them running the country. However as it seems unlikely that the UK is going to do a Belgium and have the Queen run the country directly while the political parties sort themselves out over the next five years I think the best bet would be a Labour minority government. That's because being forced to work with libertarian parties such as UKIP and the Conservatives on a case by case basis should help Labour work through the control issues that have been holding them back.

Unfortunately I am unsure of how to draw up a tactical voting plan across 627 seats to make sure that happens. In fact it would take several days simply to work out all the different variables let alone how they would have to interact. The main barrier to any minority government though will be the Liberal Democrats who will always jump at the chance to join a coalition regardless of who it is with. If the SNP do particularly well the Liberal Democrats are likely to come under significant external pressure to do just that.

Although the "Cockroaches" - as they refer to themselves - can be a resilient bunch due to their role in the ConDem government the Liberal Democrats are really facing a wipeout at this election. However in 2010 what put the Liberal Democrats in a position to form a coalition was a huge swing to them from Labour. Therefore at this election there is likely to be a swing back to Labour meaning that in terms of a Labour/Liberal Democrats coalition any collapse in Liberal Democrat support is likely to be cancelled out by an increase in support for Labour.

In my tiny part of the country it is much less about national politics and much more about sending Labour the message that their crime wave needs to stop. Therefore it is important that they are prevented from gaining the Croydon Central seat and ideally expelled from the Croydon North seat. The best way to ensure that this happens is for all opposition to unite behind the Conservatives because them holding one seat and gaining another is unlikely to change the picture nationally.

However my bleeding heart feels that I should warn people that if they try that tactic nationally they're going to get everything that's coming their way.

11:50 on 3/5/15 (UK date).