Egypt's Continuing Revolution: Month 16, Week 2, Day 7.

Between the crisis over Syria's chemical weapons and the resumption of Rihanna's Diamonds World Tour I have clearly been too distracted to write regular updates on the situation in Egypt. The big development since my last post on the subject though has been the decision to dissolve the Muslim Brotherhood. This has almost totally crippled the Brotherhood's ability to organise overtly which coupled with dwindling support has meant that weekly violent Brotherhood protests against the government have ceased in any significant form.

This does not mean that the situation in Egypt has suddenly become stable though. The collapse of law and order on the streets that began with the fall of Mubarak and continued under Mohamed Morsi's reign continues to present problems and the practice of using military Courts to deal with offenders has prompted some muted criticism from revolutionaries. However until a new constitution can be adopted and a new government sworn in to begin the process of reforming Egypt's laws and criminal justice system I don't see what other option there is. The problems with law and order have been highlighted by the football Ultras particularly Zamalek's White Knights who having been deprived of football games to watch have been engaging in protests and occasional street fighting. Added to the law and order problem relations between Egypt and some of its Gulf neighbours have become somewhat fraught with Qatar withdrawing USD2bn of aid that it had promised.

Egypt's biggest problem though remains the fight against Islamist terrorist groups based mainly in the Sinai peninsula. Although the Egyptian military has been making great progress tackling these armed groups there are a large number of disparate groups and post-Libya there are an awful lot of weapons in the region. As a result gun and grenade attacks on the security forces remain a daily occurrence in Egypt prompting some police conscripts to hold street protests demanding better weapons and protection. A worrying development is that while these attacks don't appear to become more sophisticated or organised more and more incidents are starting to occur outside of the Sinai including a RPG attack today in Cairo and a bombing in Ismailia. In Cairo in particular the threat of terrorist bombings has reached such paranoid proportions that even a simple drinks can will prompt a full-scale alert.

Facing all these pressures and daily attempts on their lives has clearly left Egypt's security forces feeling a little unloved and under-appreciated. As a result the military asked people to take to the streets on Sunday's (6/10/13) 40th anniversary of the October (Yom Kippur) war with Israel to show their support for the security forces. Many Egyptians did just that but unfortunately the event offended the Muslim Brotherhood which called it's supporters onto the streets in an apparent attempt to attack those supporting the security forces. Within Cairo the worst of the violence occurred as Brotherhood supporters attempted to march on supporters of the security forces who were celebrating in Tahrir Square. The Brotherhood supporters were stopped by the police on Ramsis street leading to lengthy violent clashes that engulfed the surrounding area. The current death toll from the Cairo confrontation stands at 19 but violence from elsewhere in the country brings that total up to 53 with 27 deaths reported in the Giza suburb. Along with some 270 injuries nationwide this makes Sunday the bloodiest day in Egypt since the dark days of August.

Apart from the street violence the anniversary of the October war has also served as a lightning rod for everybody with a weapon and a grudge against the security forces. As a result Sunday and carrying on into today has seen a number of isolated gun, bomb and RPG attacks across Egypt including the attacks in Cairo and Ismailia that are too numerous to list individually. One positive of all this is the fact that opponents of the Egypt government are resorting to using weapons indicates that they know they lack the popular support to disrupt life in Egypt through force of numbers so instead are being forced to resort to violence. The other positive is that this recent wave of violence appears to be in response to a one off anniversary rather then a new and co-ordinated campaign.

However if regular violence does once again return to the streets of Egypt it is important that it doesn't interfere with the transition process starting with the new constitution which is rumoured to be published in the coming week. After all nothing will take the wind out of the Morsi supporters sails like showing them how a democratic transition should be done.

20:05 on 7/10/13.