UNSC to Vote on Mali Peacekeeping Force.

Today the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) is scheduled to vote on authorising an African-led peacekeeping mission for Mali. Before I comment on that though I need to do a quick bit of housekeeping.

Yesterday (24/4/13) I received a letter from the Department of Work and Pensions (DWP) inviting me to a work focused interview at some point in May. As I'm in receipt of tax credits rather than any actual  money from the DWP this interview is entirely voluntary. I think you can guess what my answer is going to be. However I should point that it is unlikely that I will be able to hold off applying for means tested Employment Support Allowance (ESA) much beyond July 2013.

This brings me neatly onto today's UNSC vote. If the tabled resolution is passed it will authorise the deployment of an UN peacekeeping force to Mali starting on July 1st 2013 (1/7/13) however there are no guarantees that anyone will actually contribute troops to the mission. France obviously will support the resolution as will the US and the UK. Azerbaijan, Australia and Rwanda will vote lock-step with the UK. Due to the confusion regarding Syria the US and the UK is hoping that Russia and China will fail to realise that they have great incentive to veto the resolution. Therefore the early indications are that the resolution will pass. This will be a great mistake.

The fundamental question in front of the UNSC is whether Mali represents a safe and stable enough environment for a peacekeeping rather than a combat force to operate in. The answer to this clearly no. Although most of the conventional combat in Mali is now over there is a lot of evidence that many of the Islamist militants have merely melted into the local population. This sets the stage for an Afghanistan style asymmetric insurgency. Recent events in Nigeria show that African troops are not well trained nor well equipped enough to deal with this type of security threat so their presence is likely to make the situation worse. Also there is a civil society vacuum with the Malian government lacking a presence in let alone the ability to operate in much of northern Mali. Beyond that there is still the issue of the Tuareg's who show no indication of ending their quest for an independent state. It was this conflict along with the military coup that created the space for the Islamist insurgency.

As for the wider geo-political context that any peacekeeping force will be forced to operate in; In the past 10 days we have seen more then 500 people killed in things like the Boston marathon bombings, the Texas fertiliser plant explosion, the Baghdad coffee shop bombing, the weekend massacre in Baga, Nigeria and the Bangladesh factory collapse. This is clearly not a safe and stable operating environment. There is also no evidence that the US or the UK have any intention of stabilising that operating environment. Despite all the bold claims regarding the Boeing 787 Dreamliner battery fix Chris Brown remains out of prison. Also surrounding Rihanna's tour there have been a series of small, low-level, niggly little things suggesting that the US consider the operation to be continuing as planned.

For example at Rihanna's Atlanta concert the tour promoters Live Nations foolishly guest listed an individual known as Kenya Moore who is the star of a reality TV show "The Real Housewives of Atlanta." The Kenya part of her name is clearly a reference to the nation of Kenya while the fact she is a reality-TV star is a reference to the reality-TV show style nature of Rihanna and Chris Brown's car-crash of a relationship. Ahead of yesterday's Baltimore concert Rihanna on Tuesday attended the party thrown by National Football League (NFL). This was an obvious reference to Baltimore's presence in the Superbowl and the issues of African-American attitudes to homosexuality that involved. During Rihanna's Baltimore concert details emerged of a corruption scandal in the Baltimore prison system in which the leader of a prison gang impregnated at least four female prison guards in a story that can be interpreted any number of ways. In the meantime Rihanna's handlers are putting increasing levels of pressure on her fans to make sure that details of Rihanna's concerts are kept as closely guarded secrets through things like the release of the tour book.

Therefore my position remains unchanged - the UN simply cannot authorise a peacekeeping force for Mali until the US lifts it's protection of Chris Brown and he is placed on very strict bail conditions. For purely selfish reasons I would also say that the UNSC should hold off on a Mali force until such a time as the UK accepts that I am not capable of work related activity and awards me non-means tested ESA. However I'm a big boy and I think I can take care of that one myself.

13:20 on 25/4/13.

Edited at around 14:45 on 25/4/13 to add;

The UNSC has voted in favour of the resolution. What's clearly happened is that that members have believed US assurances that they're going to stabilise the operating environment by terminating the Chris Brown operation at his June 10th (10/6/13) Court apparence. Coming so close the the G8 Summit this clearly isn't going to happen and the conflict in Mali is going to re-intensify from July onwards. The US have pretty much just confirmed this with its sarcastic announcement that the Dreamliner is being cleared to carry passengers.

I must say I'm very surprised that Russia and China missed a trick by failing to veto the resolution. It's quite clear that the US and the UK are forcing African nations into this peacekeeping force with a gun to thier backs. I mean that literally because things like the attack in Baga in Nigeria show that if African nations don't sign up to the Mali operation the UK will direct the Islamists to attack neighbouring nations. Therefore if Russia and China had given those African nations a way out by vetoing the resolution they would pretty much be garunteed every mining concession and government contract on the continent for the next 20 years or so at the expense of the US in particular.

The fact that hasn't happened is just further evidence that the US' current position in the world is primarily the result of the charity of others. Something the US will be well minded to remember.