Monday 25 March 2019

Well, This is an Omnishambles.

Last Thursday (21/3/19) the British Prime Minister Theresa May, on behalf of the British government, attended the European Union (EU) Council (EUCO) summit. There she made a request for the date of Brexit to be pushed back until June 30th (30/6/19) by extending the Article 50 process.

The EU leaders rejected that request. They made a counter-offer, to extend Article 50 until May 22nd (22/5/19) on condition the Withdrawal Agreement was accepted by the UK Parliament. Failing that extending Article 50 until April 12th (12/4/19).

I describe this as the EU's counter-offer because EUCO decisions are not binding until all EUCO members give them effect. Currently Britain is a member of EUCO.

You may remember that the EU/Canada Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) was approved by EU leaders in August 2014. However it has still not come into full effect. Even provisional approval was not given until September 2017 due to delays in getting it past the subnational, regional Parliament in Belgium's Wallonia.

EUCO decisions like extending Article 50 are normally given effect through executive action. Essentially at the discretion of the national leader. In Britain this type of executive action is known as; "Royal Prerogative."

In the winter of 2016/17 there was a massive Court case in Britain, brought by Gina Miller. Over whether Royal Prerogative could be used in matters relating the Article 50.

The ruling was that it can't be. Parliament must be given a; "Meaningful Say" in matters relating to Article 50.

That ruling is entirely why we are in this current mess of Parliament being able to reject the Withdrawal Agreement over and over again. Requiring Britain to seek an extension to Article 50 in the first place.

Therefore to give effect to the EUCO's counter-offer a statutory instrument has to pass through both houses of the British Parliament and receive Royal Assent - signing by the Monarch.

Throughout Britain's membership of the EU that statutory instrument has been automatic. Through the European Communities Act 1972. However as a result of the Gina Miller case that was repealed in June 2018.

So in order to move the date of Brexit Britain needs to introduce a specific statutory instrument for that purpose. I was under the impression that the EU's intent was that Britain would do that by making the Withdrawal Agreement the statutory instrument.

I thought that was so obvious I'd worked it even before the EUCO press conference announcing the counter-offer. One of the things which made those few days so stressful for me was deciding to just say it out loud. Or only subtly hint at in the hope people would notice.

In the end I did just come out and said it. Although it seems I didn't state it clearly enough for the British government to understand.

Today (25/3/19) Prime Minister May updated Parliament on the EUCO summit. She started by claiming that the Article 50 had already been pushed back. Claiming she had used Royal Prerogative to give the offer effect at the summit.

That is just simply wrong. The UK Supreme Court has already ruled that Royal Prerogative cannot be used in matters relating to Article 50. If it hadn't the Withdrawal Agreement would have just been adopted using Royal Prerogative.

Prime Minister May has gone on to compound her error by introducing a statutory instrument which is separate from the Withdrawal Agreement. In fact she is not going to introduce the Withdrawal Agreement at all. The failure to combine the two means it lacks support.

Obviously the British government can withdraw that statutory instrument from Parliament at any time before it receives Royal Assent.

If it doesn't chaos is likely the reign between now and April 12th (12/4/19).

I am under the impression EU chose that date specifically because of a decision made by Speaker of the House of Commons, the lower house of Parliament.

On March 18th (18/3/19) the Speaker Bercow, ruled that defeated motions and amendments cannot be reintroduced within the same Parliamentary session. Motions on calling a second Brexit referendum and giving Parliament control of the Brexit process were introduced and defeated on March 14th (14/3/19).

So even under the most liberal interpretation of Speaker Bercow's ruling those amendments cannot be reintroduced until April 23rd (23/4/19) at the earliest. Sadly I think some people actually need to be told that April 23rd occurs AFTER April 12th.

All indications are though that Speaker Bercow is going to disregard his own ruling and the legal precedent behind it. He is going to allow Parliament to seize control of Brexit. Remoaner to the core they will likely try to scrap Brexit all together.

This puts the EU in an extremely difficult position.

Does it continue to recognise the British government as the representative of the nation and the British people.

Or does the EU recognise a few rogue members of a house of Parliament as that interlocutor.

In defiance of the British constitution, the rulings of and legal precedents cited by the leader of that rogue faction and the referendum result.

There is never a good time for the EU to be facing that sort of decision. However this seems a particularly bad one.

There is the situation in Venezuela.

There both houses of the Congress ruled that the office of President was vacant. After the failure to hold an election follow the expiry of the incumbent's term. In line with their constitution Congress appointed Juan Guaido as the interim President.

As a result the EU now recognises Guaido as the interlocutor of the Venezuelan people. On behalf of Congress.

Then there is Syria. The EU long ago recognised the self-styled; "Syrian Opposition" of the interlocutor of the Syrian people rather than the Syrian government. A decision which is now looking unwise.

So if a rogue faction of the British Parliament do attempt to seek recognition from the EU over Brexit both Venezuela and Syria situations are likely to get bumpy.

I'm sure the British public are all extremely proud of the illustrious company their idiot MP's have put them in.

18:25 on 25/3/19 (UK date).


1 comment:

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