Thursday, 28 March 2019

I Feel a Bit Sorry For the DUP.

As you may have heard Britain is still deep in the grip of the Brexit Saga.

This situation is entirely the fault of the British Parliament and its MP's. They are continuing to refuse to adopt the Withdrawal Agreement.

Amongst Britain's MP's there are a small group of around 100 Hard Brexiteers. They see opposing the Withdrawal Agreement as a way to ensure a No Deal Brexit. A fantasy which even they must have realised is unsustainable long term.

The much larger and more problematic group of MP's are the Remoaners. Numbering around 300 they see opposing the Withdrawal Agreement as a way to overturn the result of the public referendum and block Brexit entirely.

Throughout this saga the Remoaners have frequently liked to claim that the British Parliament is Sovereign and powerful. That is simply not true.

While Britain is a member of the EU its Parliament is a powerless vassal of the EU.

British laws are passed by the EU issuing a directive. Those European Directives then automatically become British laws through the Statutory Instrument of the European Communities Act of 1972.

British MP's have no input or power whatsoever over the passing of these new laws. Yet they are paid £77,000 a year to literally sit there on their arses doing nothing. Understandably they are deeply opposed to seeing that status quo changed.

Britain has not yet left the EU. However people are already starting to wake up to the fact that the current crop of British MP's are simply not up to the job and need to be replaced.

The Remoaners strategy to block Brexit has been laid bare by the ongoing process of Indicative Votes.

The dishonesty and just open lies being told by the Remoaners during this process has been truly shocking.

Firstly there has been the claim that Article 50 has been extended and the date of Brexit delayed beyond March 29th (29/3/19).

That is something which is not a matter of opinion or open to interpretation. It is simply untrue.

Extending Article 50 requires the 2018 EU Withdrawal Act to be amended.

The British Supreme Court is very clear on the fact that cannot be done by executive action known as; "Royal Prerogative." It can only be done through the passing of a specific Statutory Instrument.

As I write no such Statutory Instrument has been passed. Meaning that Article 50 has not been extended and the date of Brexit continues to be March 29th (29/3/19).

Despite this Remoaners have been claiming, for a full week now, and continue to claim that Article 50 has been extended and the date of Brexit has been delayed.

This is no more true than me claiming the Earth is flat. Or that the Sun orbits around that flat Earth.

Then there is the Indicative Votes themselves. Remoaners have claimed that this is Parliament taking back or seizing control of the Brexit process.

Again this is not something which is a matter of opinion or open to interpretation. It is simply untrue.

The Indicative Votes came about due to Parliament adopting an amendment in a vote on Monday (25/3/19). Known as the; "Letwin Amendment."

The Letwin Amendment simply made a request of the government. That the business put forward by MP's be given priority over the business put forward by the government on one particular day. Wednesday (27/3/19).

The business the government wanted to put forward on Wednesday (27/3/19) was a series of Indicative Votes. So they had absolutely no problem granting the request expressed in the Letwin Amendment.

As the name suggests the Indicative Votes are there to give an indication of MP's opinions. If any of them pass they don't even have the status of a request upon the government. They most certainly don't bind the government to adopting the opinion expressed.

Yesterday (27/3/19) British MP's held their first round of Indicative Votes. They considered 8 motions. None of which they agreed upon.

British MP's were though able to agree on one thing yesterday. The lower house passed the Statutory Instrument needed to extend Article 50. By a majority of 441 votes to 105.

That is the Remoaners entire strategy.

They are attempting to make it appear that Brexit is impossible. In order to trick voters into allowing them to seek extensions to Brexit and eventually do away with it entirely.

This is the only reason that EU Council (EUCO) President Donald Tusk offered the possibility of a Brexit extension until April 12th (12/4/19). While emphasising the online petition to scrap Brexit and the protest march calling for the same.

That is a serious problem. It is something that could be construed as an act of war by EUCO President Tusk against Britain.

This is exactly the type of thing that Russia is accused of doing in a host of Eastern European nations which are seeking to join the EU.

It is exactly the type of thing that Russia accuses the EU and the US of doing in Eastern European nations which don't want to join the EU. Such as Ukraine.

It is something we have seen in Syria.

Back in 2011 foreign powers wishing to overthrow the Syrian government conducted a series of online influence operations. The circulating of petitions and social media hashtags etc. They backed those online influence operations with a series of small protest marches.

Figures in the Syrian military and the Syrian Parliament were then encouraged to defect to the foreign power. Setting up a rival government and military calling itself the Syrian National Council and Free Syrian Army respectively.

They then tried to force the Syrian President to stand down. By putting around breathless rumours that he had already resigned.

Eight years later I hope I don't have to tell you that those rumours are not something which is a matter of opinion or open to interpretation. They were simply untrue.

As the results of the Indicative Votes were being announced Israel conducted airstrikes against the Syrian city of Aleppo. The focus of many online influence campaigns.

That should not be considered a coincidence.

That 441 MP's voted to support the Statutory Instrument extending Article 50 means they have sided with a foreign entity against the British Parliament. A foreign entity which is seeking to subvert the British democratic process and possibly overthrow the British government.

That decision automatically excludes those 441 individuals from acting as Members of the British Parliament.

Even the Syrian MP's who defected to a foreign power in 2011 had the decency to resign from the Syrian Parliament.

In the middle of all this you have the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP). Their 10 MP's are the only ones who have any legitimate objections to the Withdrawal Agreement.

They specifically object to the Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland under the Withdrawal Agreement.

This creates a slightly different set of rules between the Northern Ireland and the British mainland. What's known as; "Regulatory Divergence."

At around 12:20 on 28/3/19 (UK date) I will pick that up later.

Edited around around 20:10 on 30/3/19 (UK date) to copy & paste from another place;

I should start by pointing out that the date of Brexit has now changed. To April 12th (12/4/19).

It changed at around sundown yesterday (29/3/19).

You'll notice that's almost eight full days after Remoaner MP's and journalists tried to convince you that it had already changed.

As I said the DUP are the only party who have a legitimate objection to the Withdrawal Agreement. They are opposed to the regulatory divergence created by the "Backstop" Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland.

In the past I've said that I think they are being overly sensitive about this.

After all there is already significant regulatory divergence between Northern Ireland and the British mainland/ The vehicle number plates, the banknotes, policing and the Northern Ireland Assembly.

That though is the DUP's argument.

The Backstop is just the latest in a long line of small pieces of regulatory divergence they've been forced to accept. Their British identity is slowly being chipped away piece-by-piece.

I still think the DUP are being overly concerned about the Backstop.

After all the plan of the Withdrawal Agreement is that there is a two year Transition Period. If an agreement is not reached by then the Transition Period can be extended by another year. Only if that fails will the Backstop be invoked.

So it is no-one's plan for the Backstop to be invoked. It is an insurance policy there only if everything else fails. Britain adopting the Withdrawal Agreement does not automatically mean the Backstop will ever be used.

However given the current shambles of British politics not even I feel reassured Britain will be able to reach an agreement with itself before the extended Transition Period expires. So the DUP are right to be cautious.

That said though the current problems in the Brexit process are entirely the fault of the British Parliament.

Negotiations between Britain and the EU ended back in November 2018. Now we're really all just waiting for the British Parliament to get its act together.

As I've said the main problem is the roughly 300 Remoaners. They see opposing the Withdrawal Agreement as a way to overturn the result of the public referendum and block Brexit entirely.

That position becomes wholly untenable the moment Britain leaves the EU. I would think that over the course of three years even the most stubborn Remoaner would finally start working in the national rather than their own selfish self-interest.

Then there is the concern that the EU will try and trap Britain in the Backstop. In light of EU Council (EUCO) President Tusk's disgusting plot to try and trap Britain in the EU that is very hard to argue against.

However EUCO President Tusk is plotting to trap Britain in the EU. That is a very different proposition from trying to trap Britain in the Backstop.

The big difference is money.

While Britain is a member of the EU it contributes large sums to the EU budget. In turn the EU budget contributes large sums of money to EUCO President Tusk's native Poland.

That EU money is used to fund numerous social and civil society programs in Poland. Promoting things like gender equality, gay rights, media freedom etc.

I hate to sound like a conspiracy theorist but the name George Soros does come up a lot in this area. As it tends to do every time something undemocratic happens in the US. Such as the attempts to block Judge Kavanaugh.

In Poland a lot of that EU money is used to pay their salaries of a lot of EUCO President Tusk family, friends and supporters.

So the EU doesn't directly fund Tusk's Civil Platform (PO) Party. It just pays the salaries of a lot of people who fund Tusk's Civil Platform Party.

In much the same way that the Renewable Heat Initiative didn't directly fund the DUP. Except....

Poland's governing Law & Justice Party (PiS) are already very concerned about EU money being used to fund political activity in Poland. In what seems to be a pretty clear attempt to undermine Polish democracy.

So if the end of Britain's contributions to the EU budget do result in a cut in EU spending it's likely to be Tusk's family, friends and supporters who find themselves personally out of pocket.

Under the Withdrawal Agreement Britain's contributions to the EU budget end in 2020. Before the Transition Period has ended, let alone been extended. A good two years before the Backstop would ever be invoked

So under the Backstop the EU will have already lost its main incentive to trap Britain into anything.

There is also a massive disincentive for the EU to try and trap Britain in the Backstop.

The Backstop allows Northern Ireland to enjoy all the advantages of remaining a part of the EU Single Market. While at the same time allowing Britain, as a whole, to opt out of the Free Movement of People/Human Capital.

The Free Movement of People/Human Capital is one of the Five Pillars of the EU. Many feel that without it the EU does not exist.

Despite this there are many, many existing EU member states who would like to see that Pillar fall.

Nations which are in the EU Single Market but are not full EU members, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland, are particularly keen to be allowed to opt out of the Free Movement of People/Human Capital.

Fans of Manchester Utd, Sea Ferries and cheap, transatlantic airfares will notice they've been very vocal on this point in the past week.

The longer Britain remains in the Backstop the harder and harder it is going to be for the EU to demand that others have uphold the Free Movement of People/Human Capital.

Then there is the fact that both the Withdrawal Agreement and the Backstop contain legally binding guarantees to prevent Britain being trapped in the Backstop. Despite what many liars may claim.

You'd be alarmed by how many people on the British mainland think the Northern Irish border is a straight line East-to-West from Newry to Silgo.

So like most people on the British mainland I'm not particularly interested in the issue of regulatory divergence.

However that's not the point.

The point is that it is important to people in Northern Ireland. So important that enough of them have voted to give the DUP 10 MP's.

Those 10 MP's are obligated to carry out the mandate voters have given them by opposing anything which increases regulatory divergence.

In a functioning British democracy all the other MP's would respect the DUP's mandate and vote for the Withdrawal Agreement. Allowing it to be adopted.

This would allow the DUP to make a point of voting against the Withdrawal Agreement.

As negotiations move through the Transition Period the DUP's objections to the Backstop would be noted and respected.

As a way to focus everyone's minds on making sure the Backstop is never used.

20:25 on 30/3/19 (UK date).

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