Operation Featherweight: Month 56, Week 5, Day 2.

A direct continuation of; https://watchitdie.blogspot.com/2019/03/operation-featherweight-month-56-week-4.html

In that post I looked at how Turkey has emerged a equal or greater threat than ISIL to Shangri-La. Both in terms of a guerrilla style insurgency and conventional military action.

I also looked at how, in the first instance, managing the Turkish threat to Shangri-La falls into the political or diplomatic sphere rather than the military sphere.

Primarily I looked at how managing the Turkish threat has fallen almost exclusively on America's shoulders, particularly those of US President Donald Trump.

It has been clear that the EU members of CJTFOIR have not been prepared to shoulder their part of the burden of managing the Turkish threat. In fact the EU has often chosen to side with Turkey against the US.

This is particularly true of France. It is also particularly true of the Sudetenland area of Syria.

The Sudetenland sits directly to the south of Afrin Canton. It is bounded on the south and the east by the Central Syria area.

In October 2017 Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan dispatched the regular Turkish military (TSK) to the Sudetenland.

There the TSK established a network of small military bases known as; "Control Points." Over time that network of Control Points has expanded to 18. Their purpose is to protect the armed groups within the Sudetenland from the Syrians.

The problem with this is that the Sudetenland is now exclusively under the control of Al Qaeda.

On Friday, March 1st 2019 (1/3/19) the US offered a US$1m reward for information on the whereabouts of Hamza bin Laden. Son of Al Qaeda founder Osama bin Laden. I assume this announcement was made with a heap of sarcasm.

It has long been widely rumoured that Hamza bin Laden is located in the Sudetenland. He has certainly released numerous audio messages calling for volunteers to travel to Al Qaeda's new global base of operations in the Sudetenland.

In March 2018 the Syrians were liberating the East Ghouta suburb of the Syrian capital Damascus.

This prompted Erdogan to try and rescue the Islamist groups in East Ghouta by transferring them to Garvaghy Road, Afrin Canton and the Sudetenland. Specifically the Legion of al-Rahman/Faylaq al-Rahman and the Army of Islam/Jaish al-Islam groups.

Recently there has been a lot of western media interest in ISIL prisoners who have been captured by the SDF in Shangri-La. From the tone of this coverage it is quite clear that western journalists have no concept of what sort of group ISIL is and the severity of its crimes. Or are aware yet are choosing to cover it up.

For example, just yesterday, March 3rd 2019 (3/3/19) the BBC journalist Quentin Sommerville aired an interview with Yago Riedijk, ISIL fighter and husband of Shamima Begum. Also an ISIL fighter. Sommerville was keen to show his anger that Riedijk had married Begum when she was just 15 years old. In a clear attempt to portray Begum as a victim of exploitation.

Amid the Syrian and Iraqi media the big story of the weekend has been the return of 18 Yezidi children to their families. Having been rescued by the SDF from ISIL. These are the children the likes of Riedijk and Begum kept as slaves.

The Army of Islam consider ISIL to be far too moderate in their efforts to destroy minority groups such as the Yezidis. The Army of Islam have, in the past, executed members of ISIL for the crime of not being extreme enough.

You would think then that Erdogan attempting to grant sanctuary to the Army of Islam would trigger a massive backlash. Erdogan and the Army of Islam certainly thought it would.

So on April 7th 2018 (7/4/18) Turkey and the Army of Islam faked a Nerve Agent attack on the town of Douma. Located in the East Ghouta suburb. The purpose of this was to create a distraction while the Army of Islam and Faylaq al-Rahman were whisked away to Turkish controlled areas.

It was France in particular that granted credibility to the claim of Nerve Agent use. France then pressured the US and the UK to conduct strikes against Syria as punishment for the Nerve Agent attack on Douma.

Those French-led strikes occurred on April 14th 2018 (14/4/18). Four days before the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) were able to begin an investigation.

On Friday, March 1st 2019 (1/3/19) the OPCW published its final report into the Douma attack. It found absolutely no evidence to indicate that Nerve Agents had been used at all.

It did though find an abundance of evidence of the Chlorine Turkey and the Army of Islam had used in the faking of the Nerve Agent attack.

By August 2018 the Syrians had succeeded in liberating the entire Central Syria area. This seemed to set the stage for them to then move to liberate the Sudetenland from Al Qaeda.

Again it was France who rushed to Turkey's side. In an effort to prevent this from happening.

France pressured the US and the UK into committing to a statement warning the Syrians against liberating the Sudetenland. France backed up this statement by deploying the Auvergene Cruise missile frigate to the Mediterranean. Ready to strike Syria if it moved to liberate the Sudetenland.

By September 17th 2018 (17/9/18) the French and Turkish pressure paid off. Russia, Turkey, Iran and Syria agreed to put in place a Demilitarised Zone (DMZ) plan to prevent the liberation of the Sudetenland.

In the hours after this DMZ plan being announced Israel launched another wave of airstrikes against Syria.

Specifically Israel used Cruise missiles fired from aircraft over the Mediterranean to strike Latakia City. Those aircraft used the French ship Auvergene as radar cover. So, on radar screens it initially appeared as though the Cruise missiles had been fired from the Auvergene.

The Israeli aircraft also used a Russian Il-20 surveillance aircraft as radar cover. The Il-20 is similar in size and shape to a large, civilian passenger aircraft. Even amid all these advances in radar technology it still remains quite hard to spot the little thing hiding just behind the big thing.

Amid the chaos the Il-20 was shot down by Syrian S-200 Air Defence system. Resulting in the deaths of 15 Russian military personnel.

In response Russia upgraded Syria's Air Defence systems. By giving Syria the more advanced S-300 system. The top of the line Russian, domestic system rather than the slightly inferior export version. Russia also upgraded the radar capabilities of the existing S-200 system.

On December 19th 2018 (19/12/18) US President Trump announced the withdrawal of US troops from Syria. Triggering this widespread discussion over what troops the US has in Syria, where they're located and what effect their withdrawal would have.

Amid this discussion Israel launched another wave of airstrikes against Syria on December 25th 2018 (25/12/18). Coming on Christmas Day you would have thought these airstrikes would be the only thing being discussed in the US and much of the EU that day.

Israel's main objective in carrying out the December 25th (25/12/18) strikes was to test the upgrades to the S-200 system. They set out to do this by conducting an almost astonishingly reckless attack.

The strike involved Cruise missiles being fired from Lebanese airspace at primarily Damascus International Airport.

In firing the missiles the Israeli aircraft used civilian, passenger aircraft taking off and landing at Beirut International Airport as radar cover. In striking their targets the missiles used civilian, passenger aircraft taking off and landing at Damascus International Airport as radar cover.

Fortunately the upgraded radar on the S-200 system was up to the task. 14 of the 16 Israeli missiles were successfully shot down. More importantly no civilian aircraft were shot down by mistake.

Israel's December 25th (25/12/18) strikes were very similar in nature then to its September 17th (17/9/18) strikes. Which highlighted France's role in supporting Turkey in the defence of the Sudetenland.

The strikes also invoked very strong memories of the July 17th 2014 (17/7/14) shooting down of Malaysian Airlines flight MH17 over Ukraine. Which the US and Europe continue to impose sanctions on Russia over.

France's lack of diplomatic maturity has really been highlighted by its response to Trump's withdrawal announcement.

On December 20th 2018 (20/12/18), the day after the announcement, France publicly condemned US President Trump and declared it would be keeping its troops in Shangri-La.

What is less well publicised is that on December 22nd 2018 (22/12/18) an SDF delegation visited France. At that meeting France refused to provide the SDF with the support it was publicly claiming to provide.

That refusal to support the SDF did not stop French President Macron from further condemning US President Trump's announcement in public. On December 24th 2018 (24/12/18).

On January 10th 2019 (10/1/19) the French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drain very quietly confirmed that France will be withdrawing its troops from Shangri-La.

The issue that really highlights France's hypocrisy though is the fate of foreign ISIL members captured by the SDF.

On January 29th 2019 (29/1/19) France announced that it will be repatriating 130 French ISIL members.On February 16th 2019 (16/2/19) US President Trump called on nations, including France to repatriate ISIL prisoners.

Two days later, on February 18th 2019 (18/2/19), France publicly rejected US President Trump's call. Reversing the French position of January 29th (29/1/19).

So France's position on Syria seems based on one thing and one thing only; "Do the opposite of whatever Trump suggests."

Frankly French President Macron needs to grow up.

Both the US and the European members of CJTFOIR are hesitant to exert too much pressure on Turkey. They are concerned this will drive Turkey of their sphere of influence and into Russia.

That is entirely a problem of their own creation.

The start of the conflict in Syria back in 2011 significantly strained ties between Turkey and Russia. Turkey was trying to overthrow the Syrian government to annex the traditional Russia ally as part of a New Ottoman Empire.

Relations between Turkey and Russia hit an all time low in November 2015. When Turkish aircraft shot down a Russian aircraft over Syria. In order to prevent the Russian aircraft from bombing the forces Turkey is using to try and overthrow the Syrian government.

In response to this incident Russia broke off all diplomatic and economic ties with Turkey. Effectively placing Turkey under vice-like economic sanctions.

What changed this situation was the actions of the US and the EU.

In early 2014 then US President Barack Obama carried out a coup in Ukraine, overthrowing the government. Obama then used the situation he had created to impose sanctions against Russia. To punish Russia for its opposition to ISIL and associated groups. Something he could not openly come out and do.

The EU was well aware of both former US President Obama's actions and his motives. In June 2014 the EU empowered the Normandy Four group to negotiate on its behalf in regards to Ukraine. This was made up of France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine.

The US was notably excluded from the Normandy Four. That's because it was clear former US President Obama's only objective was to make the situation in Ukraine continuously worse. In order to justify the pro-ISIL sanctions against Russia.

If former US President Obama's designated successor Hillary Clinton had one the November 2016 US Presidential Election it would be a major counterfactual. I absolutely hate counterfactuals.

However it is likely that a US President Hillary Clinton would have dragged the US in an increasingly extreme direction. That would have made it impossible for the EU to continue in an alliance with the US. Instead breaking away and following its own path in relation to Turkey, Ukraine and Russia.

So the notion that Russia would try to rig the 2016 US Presidential Election against Hillary Clinton doesn't even withstand basic scrutiny.

Relations between the US and it's NATO allies were already strained due to the extremism of former US President Obama. A continuation of US extremism under a President Hillary Clinton would have pushed them to breaking point. A longterm strategic objective for Russia.

In many ways the fact they're dealing with US President Trump has taken a huge amount of pressure off the EU. Although US Democrats continue to rant and rave about Russia they're doing so from the sidelines. The fact that the US position isn't becoming significantly more extreme allows the EU to stay the course rather than forcing it to act to change things.

Unfortunately with no end to former US President Obama's extremist policies in sight Russia has been forced to protect its economy from sanctions. By doing business with any nation that isn't imposing sanctions on them. Which means Turkey.

As US and EU sanctions force them to do business with Turkey Russia has become increasingly spiteful. Essentially gifting Turkey the S-400 Air Defence System. So it can be tested against the F-35 aircraft the US is planning to sell to Turkey. Allowing Russia to render this brand new aircraft obsolete.

It is in this area of Russia/Turkey relations the March 2018 poisoning of Sergei Skripal and associates becomes so important. By an unfortunate coincidence today is actually the first anniversary of the Skripal poisoning.

Probably the only thing we know for sure about the Skripal poisoning is that Russia did not do it.

In September 2018 Britain laid out its case against Russia. In order to show the World just how ridiculous it was.

In looking at the evidence Britain laid out try and clear your mind of any exotic distractions. Like complex spy stories or Novichok Nerve Agents. Look at it as if Britain is accusing the two men of a typical, every day, boring crime.

Imagine the police are telling you these two men stole a car from Salisbury on March 3rd 2018 (3/3/18). While at the same time showing you CCTV footage proving the men were in a completely different city at the time the car was stolen.

Then imagine the police were trying to convince you the two men stole another car from Salisbury in July 2018. While proving to you the men had left the UK to travel the World on their gap year three months before the car was stolen.

If the police attempted presenting that case in any British Court they and it would quickly be laughed out the door by the Jury.

It is probably worth noting that today the British Prime Minister's office sent out a social media message marking the anniversary of the Skripal poisoning. It featured a picture of Bath. Which is a completely different city.

Also Britain used the Shamima Begum case to highlight the ISIL fighters held prisoner by the SDF. Over the weekend of February 16th 2019 (16/2/19), during the Munich Security Conference.

On the night of February 16th (16/2/19) someone hung an absolutely massive Russian flag from Salisbury Cathedral. No doubt prompting discussion about whether it was the right flag to hang from the scaffold.

Blaming the Skripal poisoning on Russia is particularly problematic because it involves a Chemical Weapon. That means it triggers the sanction regime laid out under the US 1991 Chemical and Biological Weapons Control and Warfare Elimination Act. This automatically impose tighter and more expansive sanctions.

So even if we were never to talk of the Skripal case again it will continue to make the situation worse. With tighter sanctions being automatically imposed in the background against wider sectors of the Russian economy. Until Britain comes clean and admits it makes a mistake.

If Britain were to properly investigate the Skripal poisoning it may well find that it was actually Turkey who was responsible. Specifically to trigger sanctions against Russia to strengthen Turkey's position in its dealings with Russia.

The possibility of Turkey conducting a Nerve Agent attack during the 2018 Winter Olympics was certainly covered in numerous threat assessments. Not least because of Malaysia's claim that a Nerve Agent was used by North Korea to assassinated Kim Jong Nam.

As the recent OPCW report into the Douma attack has shown Turkey was certainly prepared to conduct this type of misdirecting Nerve Agent attack. Little more than a month after the Skripal poisoning.

Sergei Skripal was also recruited to MI6 by a man who went on to work for Christopher Steele's Orbis Business Intelligence. The company which prepared the Russian collusion dossier.

The Russian collusion dossier which was used by US Democrats first to justify the FBI spying on the Republican 2016 Election campaign. Then when that interference had failed to rig the election in Hillary Clinton's favour to appoint Special Counsel Robert Mueller. An investigation which has certainly bound the US' to former President Obama's extremist policies.

Therefore there is a lot of suspicion that Sergei Skripal was one of the sources for the Steele dossier. In the week Sergei Skripal was poisoned Steele and Orbis Business Intelligence were being sued in a British Court for defamation over the dossier.

As such a proper investigation into the Skripal poisoning could well reveal that sections of the US intelligence community, such as Mueller and his FBI team were involved. To prevent Skripal from giving evidence in the defamation trial over the dossier.

Just the fact that Britian is continuing to blame Russia for the Skripal poisoning, despite knowing full well Russia didn't do it, is giving Mueller and his faction false hope.

20:10 on 4/3/19 (UK date).