Operation Featherweight: Month 57, Week 1, Day 3.

A direct continuation of; https://watchitdie.blogspot.com/2019/03/operation-featherweight-month-57-week-1.html


In that post I looked at US President Donald Trump's announcement of December 19th 2018 (19/12/18). That US troops were to be withdrawn from Syria.

I particularly looked at how in terms of managing the threat posed by Turkey to the Shangri-La area of Syria this was a masterstroke on Trump's part.

In response to Trump's announcement the SDF immediately entered into negotiations with the Syrians. The main objective of these Russia brokered negotiations was to see either Syria or Russian troops take control of Shangri-La's northern border with Turkey.

Erdogan's justification for threatening Shangri-La, and other areas of Syria, has always been based on an extremely shaky premise. That the Arab majority SDF is in fact the Turkish Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). Which Turkey considers to be a terrorist group.

Therefore Turkey must be allowed to invade Shangri-La, like it has invaded the Garvaghy Road and Afrin Canton areas of Syria. In order to remove the terror threat on Turkey's borders.

The prospect of Syrian or Russian forces taking control of Shangri-La's border areas completely removed the reasoning behind Erdogan's plan to invade.

So on December 21st 2018 (21/12/18) Erdogan was forced to postpone his planned invasion.

These Russian brokered negotiations between the SDF and the Syrians quickly developed into negotiations between Russia and Turkey. Over the fate of Shangri-La.

In those negotiations with Russia Erdogan moved quickly to try and leverage the fate of the Sudetenland against the fate of Shangri-La.

The Sudetenland: This area sits directly south of Afrin Canton. It is spread across four of Syria's Provinces covering an area of around 5,000kmsq (3,000milesq). It is centred around the city of Idlib.

The name is a reference to Nazi Germany's annexation of Czechoslovakia's Sudetenland in 1938. Under the guise of a humanitarian intervention.   

The Sudetenland has long been under the occupation of the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition.

The largest (JAF) faction, particularly in the Sudetenland, is Al Qaeda/The Base. Their affiliate within Syria is known as Jabhat al-Nusra/The Support Front. Given their high public profile I hope I don't need to explain further who Al Qaeda are.

Al Qaeda's presence in the Sudetenland includes the Turkistan Islamist Party (TiP). Rather than being a Syrian affiliate like The Support Front the TiP are original 9/11-era Al Qaeda. 

Ethnically Turkish the TiP's focus is creating an Islamic State in the area they consider Turkistan. This is made up of China's Xinjiang Province and the nations of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. 

A second sizable faction with the Army of Conquest are the Army of Islam/Jaish al-Islam (JAI). They are a particularly vicious group who consider ISIL to be far too moderate and have executed members of ISIL accordingly.

The Army of Islam committed genocide against Syria's Druze population in the Golan Heights area in 2015. They also attempted to commit a further genocide against the Druze in the Golan Heights during the winter 2017 but were stopped. 

While occupying east Aleppo City the Army of Islam routinely used Chemical Weapons against the SDF. Something the Army of Islam have openly admitted to.

A third sizable faction within the Army of Conquest are the Movement of the Freemen of the Levant/Harakat Ahrar ar-Sham al-Islamiyya (Ahrar al-Sham). However their influence in the Sudetenland has decreased as the Army of Islam's has increased.

A significant proportion of the Army of Conquest is made up of Islamist fragments of the long defunct Free Syrian Army (FSA). At one point there were in excess of 7,000 of these FSA fragments so I won't attempt to provide a comprehensive list here.  

However some of the larger Islamist FSA fragments which are active within the Sudetenland as part of the Army of Conquest include;

The Army of Glory/Jaish al-Izza (AoG). They were part of the US' Train & Equip program under former President Obama. This saw them receive anti-tank weapons such as the 9K11 Fagot and the BGM-71 TOW. Along with Man Portable Air Defence (MANPAD) systems such as the 9K38 Iglas and the Mistral.

The Movement of Nour al-Din al-Zinki/Harakat Nour al-Din al-Zinki (Nour al-Zinki). As with the Army of Glory they were part of the US' Train & Equip program under former President Obama. Receiving anti-tank weapons such as the BGM-71 TOW.

Nour al-Zinki retreated to the Sudetenland following the liberation of the eastern side of Aleppo City. There they were famous for beheading children, executing homosexuals by throwing them from tall buildings and kidnapping journalists for sale to ISIL.

The Army of Conquest also includes the irregular Turkish force, the United Turkmen Army (UTA). 

As within Garvaghy Road and Afrin Canton the UTA in the Sudetenland has grown to absorb many of the smaller fragments of the long defunct FSA such as the 1st Coastal Division. They now function simply as units of the UTA, under the direct command and control of Turkey.

There is also a small ISIL presence in the Sudetenland under the formal protection of the Army of Conquest. 

The Sudetenland was formally established under the Astana process on Syria.

The Astana Process on Syria is really the result of the economic marriage of convenience brought about by US-led sanctions on Russia. It brings together Russia, Turkey, Iran and Syria to address the conflict in Syria. Often in the city of Astana, capital of Kazakhstan.

The Fourth Round of Meetings in the Astana Process took place in May 2017. This saw the establishment of four so-called; "De-Confliction Zones." Of which the Sudetenland was one.

The Sixth Round of Meetings in the Astana Process took place in September 2017. Here Turkey was granted permission to send a small deployment of regular Turkish forces (TSK) into the Sudetenland. 

On October 6th 2017 (6/12/17) this small deployment of TSK troops arrived in the Sudetenland. Establishing a network of small military bases, Control Points, along the boundary of the Sudetenland. In order to protect the Army of Conquest and ISIL from the Syrians and Russians.

That network of TSK Control Points across the Sudetenland remains in place. Currently numbering 12.

The reason why the De-Confliction Zones were created in May 2017 was to solve an inherent problem with the so-called; "Astana Ceasefire." This was established at the First Round of Meetings in the Astana Process which took place on December 29th 2016 (29/12/16).

The Astana Ceasefire excluded ISIL. It also excluded Al Qaeda. At Erdogan's insistence the Astana Ceasefire also excluded the SDF.

The problem has been the Army of Conquest. That is an Al Qaeda-led coalition. Therefore the question has always been whether the Astana Ceasefire excludes the Army of Conquest as a whole. Or whether it protects all the factions of the coalition with the exception of Al Qaeda.

Just prior to the Second Round of Meetings in the Astana Process Turkey made an attempt to resolve this question. By giving the impression that the Army of Conquest had split into two factions. One led by Al Qaeda and another entirely separate from Al Qaeda.

The Al Qaeda-led faction took the name; "The Organisation for the Liberation of the Levant/Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)."

The supposedly separate faction took the name; "The Front for the Liberation of Syria/Jabhat Tahrir al-Suriya (JTS)."

In February 2018 there was a further attempt to pretend that the HTS faction was no longer part of Al Qaeda. 

This involved the creation of a third faction; "Guardians of Religion Organisation/Tanzim Hurras ad-Din" which attempted to claim the mantle of Al Qaeda's affiliate within Syria from HTS.

Tanzim al-Din don't seem to exist anywhere except for on paper and social media. For example on October 17th 2018 (17/10/18) the group released footage online of their fighters taking full control of the Sudetenland town of Saraqib.

The problem with this is that Saraqib is quite a large town. Not only is it home to numerous factions of the Army of Conquest it also has a large civilian population. Absolutely no-one on the ground saw any evidence of Tanzim al-Din being active there. Let alone taking complete control.

The effort to convince people of a split between the HTS faction and Tanzim al-Din has not been at all successful. Nor has been the effort to convince people of the split between HTS and JTS. Not least because the groups names are so similar.

So in August 2018 the JTS faction announced they were changing their name to; "The National Liberation Front/Jabhat Tahrir al-Watania (JTW)." This was widely seen as a precursor to them being formally absorbed into the UTA.

In order to disguise the fact they are an irregular Turkish invasion force the UTA like to call themselves the; "Syrian National Army (SNA)." Which gets extremely confusing due to Syria already having a national army.

This attempt to convince us of a division has been accompanied by periodic play-fighting between HTS and JTS.

Believe it or not much of this has been centred around the weapons trade. Or more accurately attempts to disguise the supply of weapons to Al Qaeda.

Obviously Al Qaeda are globally recognised as a terrorist group. Subject to a host of domestic laws and UN Security Council (UNSC) resolutions. As a result nations can't been seen sending weapons and other supplies to Al Qaeda.

Between 2011 and 2014 Erdogan actually thought he could get away with supplying weapons directly to Al Qaeda. However in January 2014 the Turkish police stopped a series of these weapons shipments by the Turkish National Intelligence Agency (MIT) to Al Qaeda in Syria.

Erdogan's response to this was to prosecute all the police officers prosecutors involved. Along with any journalists who dared to report on what has become known as the "2014 MIT Scandal."

So in 2014 then US President Obama set up the infamous "Train & Equip" program as an attempt to launder weapon shipments to Al Qaeda.

The weapons would be supplied to supposedly "vetted" Islamist FSA fragments within the Army of Conquest. Having been equipped with weapons those Islamist FSA fragments would then join Al Qaeda.

By late-2015 even this laundering mechanism had become far too blatant with high profile cases such as Division 30. So in October 2015 Obama was forced to scrap the Train & Equip program.

These days it's really only Turkey and Qatar who continue to support Al Qaeda. Even they are being forced to be more subtle.

Weapons are supplied to groups in the JTS faction who store them in a warehouse in a town. Groups in the HTS faction then 'attack' the town prompting the JTS faction to flee.

After the HTS faction have had time to move the weapons the JTS faction launch a counter-attack recapturing the town. Only to discover the HTS faction have left a lot of money in place of the missing weapons.

This play-fighting is also intended to reinforce the idea that HTS and JTS are separate from each other. Rather than allies. The problem is that both HTS and JTS frequently forget that's what they're supposed to be doing.

For example in October 2017 the HTS and JTS factions formed the joint; "Wrath of Mohammad Operations Room." To conduct combined offensives against the Syrians in both Sudetenland and the genocidal offensive against the Druze in the Golan Heights.

In the Sudetenland this resulted in the Syrians gaining the entire al-Hass Plateau which until then had made up the eastern boundary of the Sudetenland.

In March 2018 the HTS and JTS factions formed the joint; "Wrath of Ghouta Operations Room." To conduct a combined joint offensive against the Syrians in the Sudetenland. That offensive though was repelled by the Syrians in the space of about a day. 

By August 2018 the Syrians had succeeded in liberating the entire Central Syria area. This seemed to set the stage for them to then move to liberate the Sudetenland from Al Qaeda.

This possibility was met with significant opposition from western nations. 

Under French pressure both the US and the UK joined a UNSC condemnation of such an offensive. France backed up this statement by deploying the Auvergene Cruise missile frigate to the Mediterranean. Ready to strike Syria if it moved to liberate the Sudetenland.

With the aid of this western support Turkey was able force Russia to announce the De-Militarised Zone (DMZ) plan for the Sudetenland. On September 17th 2018 (17/9/18).

This plan saw the establishment of a DMZ extending 15-20km (9-12 miles) into the Sudetenland. 

By October 15th 2018 (15/10/18) the HTS faction in its entirety was supposed to withdraw from the DMZ while the JTS faction was supposed to withdraw all of its heavy weapons. By the end of 2018 all elements of the Army of Conquest will have to hand control of the M4 and M5 highways back to the Syrian government. 

This plan was a complete failure. The JTS faction did withdraw their heavy weapons by October 8th 2018 (8/10/18). However the HTS faction made no attempt to withdraw from the DMZ. In fact they used the opportunity to reinforce and entrench their positions.

Due to Erdogan's attempt to leverage the Sudetenland against Shangri-La no-one ever got as far as discussing the handing back of control of the M4 and M5 highways.

On December 28th 2018 (28/12/18) Erdogan gave his strange speech. Publicly acknowledging that his justification for invading the Sudetenland had disappeared. While accusing the US of engaging in psychological warfare against Turkey and its people.

At the same time the HTS were announcing that five of its fighters had been killed in the Sudetenland town of Darat Izza. This sits at the north of the Sudetenland, around 30km (20 miles) west of Aleppo City. The HTS didn't openly accuse the JTS faction of the killings. Although that was the strong implication.

On December 29th 2018 (29/12/18) the JTS faction formally denied involvement in the previous days killings. However this did not stop the HTS faction beginning to mass its forces around Darat Izza.

On January 1st 2019 (1/1/19) the HTS faction launched an attack on the JTS faction around Darat Izza. This fighting between the two factions quickly spread across all of the Sudetenland.

To give you some context of the credibility of this fighting in June 2016 the Syrians launched their operation to liberate Aleppo City. 

Technically the Syrians were only trying to liberate the eastern half of Aleppo City, rather than the entire city. Even so the battle lasted for six months until December 2016, when the city was liberated.

In November 2016 Iraqi forces and CJTFOIR launched their operation to liberate Mosul. With victory finally coming in June 2017 it took nine months to liberate that one city. 

In June 2017 the SDF and CJTFOIR launched their operation to liberate Raqqa City. With victory coming in October 2017 it took four months to liberate that one city.

In September 2018 the SDF and CJTFOIR launched their operation to liberate the Hajin Pocket. A 350kmsq (210 milesq) area made up of 12 towns and villages. That battle lasted for five months and technically there are still final clearing up operations underway.

On this first day of play-fighting with the JTS faction the HTS faction captured eight towns and positions. Including Darat Izza, Kahn al-Asal and the Sheikh Barakat Mountains.

On January 10th 2019 (10/1/19) the play-fight was over. With the JTS faction formally surrendering and agreeing to join the HTS faction. In those nine days the HTS faction had captured no fewer then 70 towns, villages and other strategic locations.

The first specific group in the JTS faction attacked by the HTS faction was The Movement of Nour al-Din al-Zinki/Harakat Nour al-Din al-Zinki (Nour al-Zinki). 

Nour al-Zinki's main military base was the Sheikh Suleiman/111th Regiment Base located around 4km (2.5 miles) south-east of Darat Izza. That was handed to HTS on January 4th 2019 (4/1/19).  

Nour al-Zinki's main headquarters was the town of Ayn Jarah, around 10km (6 miles) south-east of Darat Izza. That was handed to HTS on  January 5th 2019 (5/1/19).

Nour al-Zinki have been one the groups most heavily backed by western nations. Big recipients of weapons under former US President Obama's Train & Equip program. They were also the main group occupying East Aleppo City prior to its liberation in December 2016.

I don't think I need to remind you of how much western opposition there was to the liberation of East Aleppo. 

Back on October 8th 2016 (8/10/16) France tabled a UNSC resolution demanding an immediate halt to the operation. Despite that resolution failing to pass it did force the Syrians to halt their operation for a month.

This opposition was fuelled by a massive western propaganda operation in support of the "heroic defenders of Aleppo City. 

Much of this western media attention was drawn to the likes of Bana al-Abed. The 6 year old girl whose Social Media accounts were operated by her father and mother. Both fighters in Nour al-Zinki.

You would think then that the darlings of the west once again coming under attack, this time by Al Qaeda, would trigger a similar backlash and western propaganda operation.

As I've said the majority of the JTS faction simply surrendered to the HTS faction of January 10th 2019 (10/1/19). Fully rejoining the group under its command and doing away with the paper thin separation. 

On January 11th (11/1/19) HTS also confirmed that Tanzim al-Din were fully under its command and control.

However before then a small number of groups in the JTS faction fled north into the Turkish occupied Afrin Canton. Most notably Nour al-Zinki, The Army of Islam and the Rahman Legion. 

As a result there have been some sporadic clashes between HTS and the UTA. Across the Atmeh-Salwa Access area which marks the boundary between the Sudetenland and Afrin Canton.

For example on January 3rd 2019 (3/1/19) the UTA claim they repelled a HTS attack on the Deir Ballout Internally Displaced Peoples (IDP) Camp. This sits just inside Afrin Canton, around 6km (3.5 miles) south-west of Jinderes City.

On the same day the Atmeh IDP Camp was caught in the artillery crossfire between the UTA and HTS. The Atmeh camp sits just inside the Sudetenland, around 2km (1.2 miles) south of the Deir Ballout IDP Camp.

On January 9th 2019 (9/1/19) the UTA shelled HTS at the Sheikh Suleiman/111th Regiment Base while the two clashed around Deir Ballout. Later the UTA captured Deir Simeon, 6km (3.5 miles) north of Darat Izza, before returning it to HTS.

Having fled the Sudetenland for Afrin Canton Nour al-Zinki has since been absorbed into the Rahman Legion. On February 7th 2019 (7/2/19) both the Rahman Legion and the Army of Islam were formally absorbed into the UTA, becoming it's 3rd Corp.

In that you have Erdogan's reason for engineering this latest round of play-fighting in the Sudetenland. 

He is hoping that in return for not invading Shangri-La Russia will allow Turkey to fully annex the Sudetenland as part of the New Ottoman Empire. Simply absorbing into the UTA.

Initially Erdogan seems to have had some success in this objective. 

There have been reports of the TSK preparing to expand their network of Control Points from 12 to 18. With the new bases being built along the eastern boundary of the Sudetenland. Around towns such as Abu Duhur. 

There have also been rumours of the TSK creating a 5km (3 mile) deep safe-zone along Turkey's border with the Sudetenland. In effect extending Turkey's territory 5km (3 mikes) into Syria's territory.

However Erdogan has also created a massive problem for himself. 

Al Qaeda are now indisputably in full control of the Sudetenland. There are no 'moderate rebels' there anymore. As a result there is no legitimate reason when the Syrians should be prevented from liberating the Sudetenland.

Having realised this late Erdogan has since renewed the effort to try and convince everyone that HTS and Al Qaeda are not one and the same organisation.

On January 31st (31/1/19) senior ideological figures within Al Qaeda, Abu Hammam al-Shami and Sami al-Uraydi released a joint statement condemning HTS. Particularly for working with JTS and allowing the partial reopening of the M5 Highway. They both pledged to continuing the; "True Jihad" with Tanzim al-Din.

In believing that Tanzim al-Din are a separate group from the HTS we have to forget that on January 3rd 2019 (3/1/19) Tanzim al-Din announced they were joining HTS. You would also need to forget that on January 11th 2019 (11/1/19) HTS confirmed that Tanzim al-Din were fully under their command and control.

Clearly that inconsistency occurred to someone. On February 1st 2019 (1/2/19), the day after the joint statement by al-Shami and al-Uraydi HTS and Tanzim al-Din staged a little play-fight at Maghara. By February 2nd 2019 (2/2/19) that little play-fight was over.

On February 7th 2019 (7/2/19) Al Qeada's global leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri, lent his voice to efforts to convince us that HTS and Al Qaeda are completely separate. In a rare video message al-Zawahiri condemned the so-called "Arab Spring" in its entirety. 

Al-Zawahiri though was particularly critical of HTS. Condemning them as ideologically broken having allied themselves with secular Turkey. 

Helpfully making it appear as though HTS and Al Qaeda are separate. While making it appear as though HTS are Turkish allies who could easily be absorbed into the UTA.

Personally I think the only thing revealed in al-Zawahiri's statement was a worryingly high degree of collusion between the highest levels of the Turkish government and the highest levels of Al Qaeda's global leadership.

Due to the failure of the DMZ plan in October 2018 Russia, and particularly the Syrians have been keen to go ahead and fully liberate the Sudetenland. 

When the play-fighting between the HTS and JTS factions began the Syrians and Russians were actually conducting a joint operation against the TiP. 

In the TiP's main base of operations in the city of Jisr al-Shugour which sits within the DMZ at the south-western of the Sudetenland. This operation had to be stopped due to the HTS/JTS play-fight.

Since HTS took full control of the Sudetenland tensions have slowly been rising with the Syrians. With both sides claiming the other has attempted to infiltrate their lines and conducting artillery strikes in response. 

However nothing has yet elevated to the point it would suggest a large offensive by either side is imminent.

Although I am slightly worried that this could be the post which blows up in everyone's faces.

21:10 on 7/3/19 (UK date).