Operation Featherweight: Month 56, Week 4, Day 6.

A direct continuation of; https://watchitdie.blogspot.com/2019/02/operation-featherweight-month-56-week-4_27.html

In that post I looked at US President Donald Trump's December 19th 2018 (19/12/18) announcement that US troops are to be withdrawn from Syria.

I particularly looked at how any changes would affect the SDF's ability to combat the ISIL insurgency in Shangri-La.

Within Shangri-La ISIL are not the only threat the SDF face. The direct threat from Turkey is now equal or greater than the threat posed by ISIL.

The Turkish National Intelligence Agency (MIT) has long been known to conduct guerrilla style attacks against Shangri-La.

Often it claims these attacks through a variety of front groups. Including The Eruption Movement/Harakat al-Qiyam (HaQ) and the linguistically challenging Dignity of the Martyrs/Tajammu Shuhada. More recently though the MIT have been happy to have their attacks attributed to ISIL.

By my estimations Turkey's MIT carried out 35 guerrilla style attacks against the SDF within Shangri-La. During the period between November 12th 2018 (12/11/18) and February 7th 2019 (7/2/19).

As I mentioned in my previous post the threat of the ISIL insurgency will likely fade over time. As its cells run out of manpower and weaponry.

The Turkish insurgency will not fade in this way. It is sponsored by the full backing of a nation state. Therefore its cells can be replaced and resupplied almost endlessly.

As such, in this sense, the Turkish insurgency presents a much more serious threat than the ISIL insurgency.

Unlike ISIL Turkey also continues to present a conventional military threat to Shangri-La and the people living there.

Amongst the SDF's international partners there has been a significant failure to grasp both how real this Turkish threat is and how imminent the Turkish threat has been.

In August 2016 Turkey invaded and illegally occupied the Garvaghy Road area of Syria. This sits directly on the western boundary of the Shangri-La area.

Turkey continues to illegally occupy the Garvaghy Road area. Using both the regular Turkish military (TSK) and the irregular United Turkmen Army (UTA) force.

In January 2018 Turkey attacked the SDF directly. Invading and occupying the the Afrin Canton area of Syria. Again with a combination of TSK and UTA forces. Turkey continues to illegally occupy Afrin Canton.

On October 12th 2018 (12/10/18) Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced his intention to invade and illegally occupy Shangri-La. Bizarrely describing the SDF's impending defeat of ISIL as the establishment of; "Terrorist Nests."

Unusually for Erdogan this was no empty threat.

It was followed up by the deployment of 14,000 UTA fighters to Shangri-La's western boundary with Garvaghy Road. Along with the deployment of at least 1,200 UTA fighters to Shangri-La's northern border with Turkey.

In both places the UTA were accompanied by significant deployments of the TSK. With the combined force conducting extensive joint training exercises and invasion preparations.

On October 27th 2018 (27/10/18) the TSK began shelling Shangri-La. Both from within the Garvaghy Road area and from within Turkey itself.

These artillery strikes coincided with ISIL launching a large counter-offensive against the SDF in the Hajin Pocket. They seemed to be a deliberate attempt by Turkey to divide the SDF's forces in order to protect ISIL within the Hajin Pocket.

Those Turkish artillery strikes continued on a near daily basis throughout October and November 2018.

On November 27th 2018 (27/11/18) they expanded into ground attacks on the SDF by the UTA. Particularly in the area of the village of Kur Hayuk. Just to the west of Manbij on the Shangri-La/Garvaghy Road boundary.

On November 30th 2018 (30/11/18) the leader of the Sultan Murad Brigade, one of the largest factions in the UTA, declared that its invasion preparations were complete. Shangri-La would be invaded the moment the order was given.

On December 12th 2018 (12/12/18) Erdogan declared that the invasion of Shangri-La would begin in the coming few days.

Then, on December 21st 2018 (21/12/18), Erdogan suddenly declared that the planned invasion had been postponed.

If Erdogan had gone ahead with his invasion plan, or goes ahead with it in the future the roughly 2,300 troops the US has stationed in Shangri-La would be of limited use.

The US SOF's are extremely capable troops who specialise in combat. However there are only 300 of them. The combined TSK/UTA force Erdogan had assembled is in the region of 35,000 troops. While it's likely the US SOF's would make a significant dent in that it is highly unlikely that they would be able to stop it.

The remaining 2,000 US troops - the artillery battalions - were deployed specifically to destroy ISIL defensive positions. As a result they have been located in the Hajin Pocket area. At least 380km (230 miles) away from Shangri-La's northern border with Turkey.

If those artillery battalions were to be redeployed to fight the Turkish invasion they would still find themselves significantly outgunned. I don't know exactly how many TSK artillery battalions had been assembled as part of the invasion force. I can assure though that it is significantly more than two.

The only real role US troops serve in deterring a Turkish invasion is that of a sort of voluntarily human shield. The thinking being that Erdogan would not be prepared to provoke a wider conflict with the US, and NATO, by killing Americans.

Sitting around waiting to be killed is very much not in the military mindset. If troops are threatened they are trained to take the initiative and very aggressively eliminate that threat. The presence of CJTFOIR troops has also proved scant deterrent to Erdogan in the past.

CJTFOIR troops were very much stationed in Shangri-La when Erdogan launched airstrikes against it on March 1st 2017 (1/3/17). Striking both around Manbij and at Tal Rifaat. A town which marks the western boundary between the Garvaghy Road area and Afrin Canton.

CJTFOIR troops were also very much stationed in Shangri-La when Erdogan launched several days of airstrikes against it. Starting with the mass of 20 airstrikes against SDF High Command at al-Malikiyah/Derik on April 25th 2017 (25/4/17). Continuing over April 26th 2017 (26/1/17) and April 27th 2017 (27/4/17).

In an effort to stop these Turkish airstrikes US troops were dispatched to conduct highly visible patrols along the Shangri-La/Turkey border. Those US patrols in no way deterred the TSK from launching a limited ground incursion into Shangri-La around the town of Darbasiya on April 28th 2017 (28/1/17).

Erdogan has not only shown a reckless indifference as to whether US troops are killed. He has also been actively probing to see how the US would react if Turkey were to kill American troops. As a result of this probing CJTFOIR troops have already been killed by Turkey.

On March 29th 2018 (29/3/18) the Turkish MIT used an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) to ambush a CJTFOIR vehicle patrol in Manbij. This resulted in the death of British SOF Sergeant Matthew Tonroe and American SOF Master Sergeant Jonathan Dunbar.

CJTFOIR's response was to publicly dismiss the attack as being carried out by ISIL. In order to avoid having to take any punitive action against Turkey.

As recently a January 16th 2019 (16/1/19) Americans have been killed in Manbij. In the Inghimasi-style suicide bomber attack on a US "community engagement" at the Qasr al-Umara cafe.

This was an ISIL attack. However significant questions remain over how ISIL were able to learn about this clandestine meeting far enough in advance to conduct a sophisticated attack against it.

It is worth noting that in claiming the attack ISIL referred to the SDF as the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). In line with the script Erdogan hands out to supporters in an effort to justify his attacks.

With at least two CJTFOIR troops having being killed by Turkey and CJTFOIR failing to respond the taboo on killing CJTFOIR troops seems to have been removed.

In response to the Turkish artillery strikes which began on October 27th 2018 (27/10/18) the US issued its strongest condemnation yet.

On November 21st 2018 (21/11/18) the US announced that it was building a network of Observation Post type military bases along Shangri-La's border with Turkey. Once again putting its troops in the line of fire to deter Turkish aggression.

This had precisely no effect in deterring Turkey's aggression.

The TSK artillery strikes on Shangri-La continued unabated. On November 27th (27/11/18) they escalated to ground clashes between the UTA and the SDF around Manbij.

As I've said if Turkey does attack Shangri-La the military force needed to stop such an invasion will not come in the form of two artillery battalions and a few hundred SOFs. It will come in the form of cruise missile destroyers in the Mediterranean and strategic bombers flying out of places like Louisiana.

If those resources need to be brought to bear it will mean there has been a catastrophic failure of diplomacy amongst the CJTFOIR nations.

Up until now the responsibility to deter Erdogan's aggression has fallen entirely on US President Trump's shoulders.

You don't hear of Erdogan contacting the President of the European Council Donald Tusk demanding permission to invade Shangri-La. Nor do you hear him contacting EU leaders such as UK Prime Minister May, German Chancellor Merkel or French President Macron.

Instead Erdogan seems to spend all day, every day calling on President Trump, demanding permission to invade Shangri-La.

Personally I would have turned my phone off a long time ago.

US President Trump's announcement came as Britain was grappling with the detail of its Brexit Withdrawal Agreement. Or more accurately as the World stood in bemusement at British politician's inability to grasp even the basics of the Withdrawal Agreement.

The Brexit Withdrawal Agreement establishes a two year Transition Period. During which time Britain negotiates its future relationship with the EU. If no agreement is reached during the Transition Period then it can be extended by a further year.

Only if those two options have been exhausted does the Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland get invoked. As a contingency on the contingency.

The Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland places the UK into a customs union with the EU. This is a slightly improved version of the standard EU Customs Union.

The EU Customs Union has always been intended as stop-gap on the journey to the closer integration of the EU Single Market. As a result the only nation that is a member of the EU Customs Union but not also a member of the EU Single Market is Turkey.

Turkey has been stopped from joining the EU Single Market because it refuses to adhere to common EU standards. Particularly on things like Human Rights and the Rule of Law.

You know, pedantic little things. Like not using air and artillery strikes to completely destroy the Turkish city of Diyarbakir. In an act of collective punishment against the Kurdish population. 

Being left languishing in the EU Customs Union, the worst of both worlds has Turkey furious. At any given point, on any given day.

Within Britain many Remoaners, particularly the Labour Party are demanding that Britain remains in the EU Customs Union.

Indicating that not only have they failed to understand the Withdrawal Agreement. They've also completely failed to grasp what the EU is.

Working through the detail of the customs union in the Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland shows how much of a better deal the UK is getting than Turkey.

As such it provides a list of diplomatic mechanisms that the EU could be exerting on Turkey to first prevent it invading Shangri-La. Then, ultimately getting it to end its occupation of all Syrian territory.

Even before you get into the more extreme measures allowed by the EU Customs Union the EU could still exert a lot of diplomatic pressure on Turkey. Simply by removing the gifts and charity it provides to Turkey.

A prime example of this is the trust fund the EU has established to support Syrian refugees within Turkey. Including the US$3.4bn top up the EU granted in March 2018 this totals nearly US$7bn.

Despite this Turkey still refuses to implement the 1951 UN Convention on the Status of Refugees. As such there is not a single refugee in Turkey, Syrian or otherwise. What there is are roughly 3.5m Syrians civilians that Erdogan refuses to grant even basic rights to.

Therefore the EU certainly has ample legal grounds to cancel its trust fund for Turkey. Not that it needs one. This is simply charity. As always with charity if the donor wants to stop giving they simply stop. They don't have to justify themselves to the recipient.

The EU is hesitant to do that because they think it will lead to Erdogan flooding the EU with irregular migrants and Islamist terrorists. As he did in 2015. However if you've been tracking the recent anti-Syrian riots in Turkey, particularly in Justice & Development Party (AKP) strongholds, you would know the issue is also a significant pressure point for Erdogan.

Perhaps more so. If Erdogan does go down that route again Merkel simply needs to apologise. Then respond to the crisis properly. Rather than trying to steal all of Syria's children to make up for Germany's falling birthrate.

Once you've removed the gifts and charity the EU could still exert significant pressure on Turkey. Simply by conducting business as usual. Rather than making special exceptions for Turkey.

As I've mentioned Turkey invaded Afrin Canton in January 2018. This was simply a land grab on Erdogan's part. He was trying to snatch as much Syrian territory as possible for New Ottoman Empire.

Erdogan was particularly interested in Afrin's Olive industry. Which is worth around US70m per year.

There is now significant, credible evidence that Afrin's Olives are being labelled as Turkish. Then sold through the EU under the terms of the Customs Union.

Turkey told you as much by announcing that Afrin Olives would be sold exclusively through the Turkish Agricultural Co-operative. On November 13th 2018 (13/11/18).

I suppose the EU can choose to ignore the fact that Afrin's Olives are stolen property. Obtained by Turkey illegally invading and militarily occupying a neighbouring state.

However surely the EU cannot ignore the fact this practice is a food safety scandal which threatens the health of EU consumers. Similar to the 2013 Horse meat scandal.

It turns out there is a lot more involved in Olive production than simply picking them off a tree. I was genuinely surprised to learn how much toxic waste is involved. I can also assure you that food hygiene standards in Afrin Canton most certainly do not meet EU requirements.

So even if the EU were deeply committed to supporting Turkey it would still have to ban imports of Turkish Olives.

Then you've got the matter that Afrin's Olives are being grown and produced using forced or slave labour. Slavery famously reduces staffing costs. Meaning, if nothing else, Turkey's use of the practice represents a serious market distortion in both the EU Customs Union and the Single Market.

It almost goes without saying that much of the investigation into the Afrin Olive trade has been done by Spain. A full EU member and a big Olive producing nation.

As such it seems the EU is not even prepared to enforce its own rules when it comes to Turkey. Let alone shoulder its part of the diplomatic burden by taking special measures against Turkey.

Not only that the EU seems more than happy to side with Turkey against the US. When the US takes action to exert diplomatic pressure on Turkey.

For example in March 2018 US President Trump introduced tariffs on US imports of Turkish steel. In August 2018 US President Trump doubled those steel tariffs. In response to Turkey effectively holding the US citizen Andrew Brunson as a hostage.

The EU's response was to not join the US in imposing tariffs on Turkish steel. Instead it was to rant and rave against Trump. Then threaten to sue the US on Turkey's behalf to get the tariffs scrapped.

Also I said you don't hear of Erdogan calling on EU leaders for permission to invade Shangri-La. That's not quite true.

On October 27th 2018 (27/10/18) Germany's Chancellor Merkel and French President Macron attended a summit on Syria in Istanbul, Turkey. At Erdogan's invitation.

There they signed up to a communique "rejecting all separatist movements" and "emphasising the importance of fighting all forms of terrorism."

With the summit over and that communique in hand Erdogan suddenly felt confident to start shelling the; "Separatist Terrorists of the PKK" in Shangri-La.

18:20 on 1/3/19 (UK date).