Operation Featherweight: Month 27, Week 4, Day 4.

In the very early hours of this morning (local) predominately Turkish and American troops began an intense artillery barrage against the northern Iraqi city of Mosul. 

This was almost immediately followed by an intense series of primarily American airstrikes against the city which has been occupied by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) since the summer of 2014.

This overnight barrage almost immediately started rumours that an operation to liberate Mosul was under way. After all that would fit in perfectly with the detailed battle plan that was published in the October 8th (8/10/16) edition of the unapologetically pro-ISIL "The Economist" magazine.

That of course was the same edition in which they invited US President Barack Obama to write a guest column to extol the virtues of his self-proclaimed American economic miracle. I'll leave you to guess who they're endorsing to be the next President of the US.

In the defence of Mosul ISIL have erected multiple rings of defensive lines. The first of these is a moat reminiscent of the Prophet's siege of Medina filled with oil. Yesterday (15/10/16) ISIL set fire to that oil producing both a wall of fire and a smokescreen. Behind that moat the next layer of defence is a complex network of tunnels and bunkers similar to those used by the Viet Cong during the Vietnam war.

So before any ground troops enter Mosul the US will have to do exactly what it is condemning Russia for doing in the eastern part of Syria's Aleppo City. Intense air and artillery strikes to destroy that network of tunnels and bunkers along with other defensive positions such as trenches.

We all ready know when the US thinks this period of softening up will be complete and ground troops will be able advance into Mosul. 

Recep Tayyip Erdogan the President/Prime Minister/Emperor of the US' supposed ally Turkey told the World when it will be all the way back on September 25th (25/9/16). It will be at dawn (local) on Wednesday (19/10/16) - the day of the third and final US Presidential debate.

Sadly only yesterday (15/10/16) we were given further evidence of just how woefully unprepared Iraq is to launch an operation to liberate Mosul.

Yesterday (15/10/16) the wife and children of the head of one of the tribes making up the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) militia were killed in an ISIL attack in the home in Tikrit. Predominately but not exclusively Shia the PMF make up part of the Iraq Security Forces (ISF).

Along with Kirkuk and Baiji Tikrit makes up one point of what is known as the Hawija triangle. Sitting around 150km (90 miles) north of Baghdad and around 215km (130 miles) south of Mosul ISIL's continued occupation of the Hawija triangle has been a persistent problem since Tikrit itself was liberated all the way back in April 2015.

Also yesterday (15/10/16) 41 civilians were killed and 33 others wounded in an ISIL attack inside Baghdad itself. Those killed were returning from a pilgrimage marking the Shia holy day of Ashura. On the northern outskirts of the city another ISIL attack against a police checkpoint killed 8 and wounded 11.

It is quite hard to say where ISIL are launching these attacks from. Obviously it seems extremely likely that the attack in Tikrit was launched from the Hawija triangle. However despite recent gains ISIL continue to maintain a presence with the south-western Anbar province and in and around Saladin and Diyala provinces just to the north of Baghdad.

It was only yesterday (15/10/16) that the ISF was able to liberate the Haditha to Baiji Highway 19 road in Anbar province from ISIL. Some 150km (90 miles) long this road links ISIL's remaining positions in Anbar with ISIL positions in the Hawija triangle. Although the liberation of the road makes it harder for ISIL to travel between Anbar and Hawija as I'm sure Jeep, Toyota or Land Rover will attest you don't need a road to drive from one place to another.

The argument the US will put forward to support the Mosul operation is that the liberation of Mosul will make it harder for ISIL to mount attacks from Anbar, the Hawija triangle or the areas on the outskirts of Baghdad. This is simply not true.

Both the attack in Tikrit and the attack on Ashura pilgrims were carried out by suicide bombers. In order to carry out this type of attack you need at most 1kg (2lbs) of high explosives. If the explosive in question is something like TATP you’re talking about an object the size of a small bag of flour. If the explosive is something like military grade TNT you’re talking about an object the size of a small pack of butter.

These handheld objects are obviously incredibly easy to hide in a vehicles spare tyre, gas tanks, door panels or any load the vehicle could be carrying such as large sacks of flour. 

Apart from the fact that explosives are very easy to smuggle ISIL has likely built up arsenals of weapons in areas such as the Hawija triangle or Anbar either hidden in buildings or buried in oil drums in the desert. Just on Friday (14/10/16) a British Royal Marine reservist was convicted of stealing weapons and stashing them in just such a hide in the New Forest in Hampshire.  

Obviously it is not practical to stop every vehicle travelling everywhere in Iraq and then disassemble both it and its cargo to make sure it is not smuggling weapons for ISIL. 

So the only way that Iraq is going to rid itself of this ISIL threat is by conducting military operations against all ISIL controlled areas. This allows them to kill any ISIL fighters in that area, check those fighters are not hiding amongst the civilian population and search entire city blocks for weapons caches.

Unless Iraq does that then it is condemning itself to terrorist violence almost indefinitely. Or at least until the security situation gets so bad that they’re prepared to accept a Saddam-style Sunni dictator. For the sake of arguments at this point let’s call him; “Recep.”

The US’ only concern at this point is to secure a big flag, chest beating victory of Mosul in the days just before the November 8^th (8/11/16) Presidential election in order to sweep Hillary Clinton to power.

The US seems extremely confident of succeeding in this timetable. The persistent rumour is that through Erdogan the US has brokered a deal with ISIL. 

Although ISIL will leave a few fighters in Mosul to make it look convincing the US will grant the bulk of ISIL’s fighters safe passage from Mosul to Raqqa in Syria. This deal already seems to be in effect. 

Crucially in perpetration for the Mosul operation the US has declined to liberate the town of Tal Afar from ISIL. This sits on the main Highway 47 linking Mosul with Syria.

On Friday (14/10/16) a convoy of ISIL vehicles arrived unmolested in Raqqa from Mosul. This was made up of 10 coaches/buses each carrying around 80 people each alongside 35 pick-up trucks each carrying around 10 people each. 

Assuming those vehicles were all fully loaded we’re talking about 1,200 ISIL fighters being given safe passage from Mosul. That is around one quarter of the 4,500 fighters that ISIL were estimated to have in Mosul at the start of last week.

On an almost daily basis there are reports of similar convoys containing wounded ISIL fighters leaving Mosul for Raqqa along Highway 47. There have been no reports of these convoys being attacked let alone destroyed by US airstrikes.

In conventional warfare between nations this type of negotiated retreat has some value. 

For example in the 1982 Falklands war the UK forced Argentinean troops out of the islands they refer to as the Malvinas. However they did not then go on to invade Argentina. Instead the nations went on to restore normal if bad tempered diplomatic relations.

Likewise in 1991 Gulf War once the coalition which incidentally included Syria had forced Saddam’s troops from Kuwait they did not then go on to invade Iraq.

However ISIL are not a nation state. They are a terrorist group and one that most certainly does not adhere to accepted diplomatic norms. As such there will be no negotiated solution with them. This will only end when they are all either dead or in jail.

Staging this final battle in Raqqa is a particularly bad idea at the moment. That is because the August 25^th (25/8/16) Turkish invasion of Syria has still not been resolved. In fact it has been allowed to get worse.

Today it is being reported that Turkish backed forces have liberated the town of Dabiq in Syria from ISIL. As always from reporters based in Turkey this is not exactly the truth.

Although they are backed by regular Turkish forces there are two main groups that have taken control of Dabiq. 

The first of these is the Sultan Murad division of the United Turkmen Army (UTA). They are part of the paramilitary wing of the Turkish Nationalist Movement Party (MHP). 

The second group is the Islamic Movement of the Freemen of the Levant/Harrakat Ahrar ash-Sham al-Islamiyya (Ahrar al-Sham).

Alongside the Al Qaeda affiliate Al Nusra Front both the UTA and Ahrar al-Sham fight as part of the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition of Islamist terrorists.

Long term allies ISIL and the Army of Conquest have an extensive history of rotating control of areas between themselves as the political need dictates. 

Most notably in August 2015 when Erdogan instructed the Army of Conquest to hand control of the Marea (8km/5miles north-west of Dabiq) to ISIL to provide an excuse for Turkey to launch the invasion we’re now seeing. When that initial invasion was shelved in December 2015 Erdogan simply instructed the Army of Conquest to return control of Marea back to ISIL.

When the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) crossed the Euphrates River in May 2016 Erdogan instructed ISIL to cede control of the border town of Cobanbey (50km/30miles) west of the Euphrates to the Army of Conquest. When it became clear that the Army of Conquest wouldn’t be receiving US backing to then attack the SDF Erdogan simply ordered the Army of Conquest to return Cobanbey back to ISIL control.

Although of extremely limited strategic importance the town of Dabiq is of huge symbolic significance. 

Located 30km (20 miles) north of Aleppo City and 20km (10 miles) south of Syria’s border with Turkey it was scene of a key battle in the 1515-1516 war between the Ottoman and Mamluk Empires. The defeat of the Mamluks at Dabiq in August 1516 led to the collapse of their Empire and the establishment of the Ottoman Empire across the Middle-East, North Africa (MENA) region.

The fact that ISIL identify Dabiq as the scene of the vital battle between the Islamic Caliphate and the Infidel’s should tell you all you need to know about the extremely close alliance between ISIL and Erdogan’s Turkey.

Turkey’s reason for invading Syria on August 25^th (25/8/16) was to stop the SDF cutting ISIL’s supply lines between Turkey and their de facto Syrian capital of Raqqa. 

With this supply route still open by granting ISIL fighters safe passage from Mosul to Raqqa the US is effectively also granted them safe passage via Turkey into either Europe or north African nations such as Tunisia, Libya and Egypt.

During the recent celebrations of their 241^st Birthday the US Navy seemed very keen to remind everybody of their role in the 1801-1805 Barbary War. This was fought in the Mediterranean Sea off the coast of Tunisia, Libya and Egypt. At the time those so-called Barbary Nations were part of the Ottoman Empire – the last Islamist Caliphate.

The US granting ISIL fighters safe passage from Mosul to Raqqa whilst the Turkish occupation of northern Syria continues also presents another problem. It won’t be long until Erdogan starts putting pressure on the US to allow Turkey to mount an operation to switch control of Raqqa from ISIL to the Army of Conquest. 

If the last six years have taught us anything the moment Erdogan exerts any form of pressure on Obama then Obama will cave and let Erdogan do whatever the hell he likes.

So we seem to be on the verge of Turkey annexing the entire north-east of Syria from Azaz/Kilis all the way down the Euphrates River basin. That is alongside Turkey annexing the entire north-west of Iraq across the Nineveh plains between Mosul and the border with Syria.

For the past year Turkey has been conducting airstrikes against the Kurdistan region of northern Iraq between Mosul and the border with Iran. Surely it won’t be long before Erdogan starts using the threat of Kurdish terrorism to also annex that region as he attempts to re-establish the Ottoman Empire.

This is all alarmingly reminiscent of Nazi Germany’s annexation of the Sudetenland in 1938. That was the event that tore apart the League of Nations leading to both the Second World War and then the Cold War.

So due to Obama’s efforts to have Hillary Clinton appointed President at any cost I suspect that whomever wins in November may well refuse to take up the job.

17:30 on 16/10/16 (UK date).