Operation Featherweight: Month 27, Week 3, Day 7

This should have been published on day 6. Apparently though it's somewhat controversial.

On June 26th (26/6/16) the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) liberated the city of Fallujah from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).

Fallujah sits around 40km (25 miles) west of the Iraqi capital Baghdad in Iraq's vast south-western Anbar province. The last major population centre in Anbar under ISIL's control the liberation of Fallujah was a major blow to the group. Not only did it free some 250,000 people from ISIL's rule and taxation badly damaging the groups finances it marked the end of them being a major presence in Anbar province.

Since then not much has happened in Iraq. However this is not a complaint.

After mounting an operation as large as the liberation of Fallujah the ISF or any other force then have to conduct a mopping up operation ensuring that the liberated area is free of both remaining ISIL fighters and explosives and booby traps the group have left behind. They then need to process to displaced civilian population to make sure that no ISIL fighters are hiding amongst them and make preparations for them to return home.

They also need to conduct a full, in depth review of the operation to identify what lessons can be learnt to improve future operations. Finally even soldiers need a bit of time off because it turns out getting shot at all day is hard bloody work.

A problem though has arisen in the form of the November 8th (8/11/16) US Presidential Election.

As co-founders of ISIL current US President Barack Obama knows that ISIL is a weakness for his nominated replacement Hillary Clinton in that election. Therefore in the weeks running up to the election Obama wants to help Clinton by having a big flag waving, chest beating defeat for ISIL to show voters that they are both committed to the destruction of the group.

For this display Obama seems to have chosen the city of Mosul. This is ISIL's de facto capital in Iraq sitting around 400km (240 miles) north of Baghdad on the Nineveh plains.

On the strategic level this is just the height of foolishness. In battle you try to use the element of surprise as much of possible. The date of the 2016 US Presidential election is laid out in the US Constitution which was written in 1776. Therefore I think that is extremely easy for ISIL to predict that the US will attempt an operation to liberate Mosul in the final weeks of October and prepare for it.

To make matters worse Recep Tayyip Erdogan the President/Prime Minister/Emperor of the US' supposed ally Turkey declared on a September 25th (25/9/16) visit to the US that the Mosul operation would begin on October 19th (19/10/16) - the date of the third US Presidential debate. It's as if he sent ISIL a Save the Date card.

Despite the obvious problems all efforts in Iraq have really being focused on rushing to get this Mosul operation ready in time for the US election.

On September 21st (21/9/16) the ISF liberated to the town of Shargat from ISIL. This sits around 95km (60 miles) south of Mosul on the banks of the Tigris River at the northern most tip of Saladin province. Sitting within range of Highway 1 control of Shargat is critical to the ability to move troops and supplies between Baghdad and Mosul.

Shargat was a town that was under ISIL occupation that is now no longer under ISIL occupation. Obviously then it's almost impossible to describe its liberation as a bad thing. However in the rush to start the Mosul operation in time for the November election the rest of Iraq seems to have been abandoned and forgotten about.

Although the liberation of Fallujah forced ISIL from the last major city in Anbar province it certainly didn't end their presence in the province. It is only following the liberation of Shargat that the anti-ISIL coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) - seemed to have remembered that it might be a good idea to completely remove ISIL from Anbar province.

On October 5th (5/10/16) the ISF finally liberated Ramadi Island from ISIL. This sits just north of the city of Ramadi which sits around 45km (25 miles) west of Fallujah and itself was liberated all the way back in December 2015.

Just on Sunday (9/10/16) the ISF liberated five villages just north of the town of Hit which sits around 50km north-west of Ramadi. Hit itself is around 35km (20 miles) south-east of Ain Assad airbase which CJTFOIR have long been using as a training centre. It's liberation back in April 2016 was critical in opening up the route to Ramadi for the liberation of Fallujah.

Just yesterday (11/10/16) Hit Island which is just north of the town was also been liberated from ISIL. This effectively removes ISIL from the entire Euphrates River basin in Iraq. An area of roughly 230km^2 (140miles^2).

One of the main reasons that the operations to liberate Ramadi, Fallujah and "all of Anbar province" stumbled and initially failed is that they were launched before the operation to liberate Tikrit had been fully completed.

The capital of Saladin province sitting around 150km (90 miles) north of Baghdad Tikrit itself was liberated all the way back in April 2015. However rather than securing the surrounding area known as the Hawija triangle made up of Tikrit, Baiji (50km/30miles north) and Kirkuk (115km/70miles north-east) CJTFOIR and the ISF simply left this area under ISIL control while they shifted their focus to Anbar province.

Despite the liberation of Shargat this Hawija triangle has still not been liberated from ISIL. That is despite the fact that the town of Hawija itself sits just 55km (30 miles) south-east of Shargat.

It was only on Monday (10/10/16) that the ISF launched a successful operation to liberate the Mteibijah region. This sits on the border between Saladin and Diyala provinces around 100km (60 miles) south of Tikrit and 50km (30 miles) north of Baghdad.

With all of these outstanding areas I am far from convinced that the ISF and CJTFOIR will be in any position to mount an operation to liberate Mosul by the end of 2016 let alone a week from today.

When it does get underway the operation to liberate Mosul will be extremely complex. 

As is always the case the first step is to lay siege to the city completely cutting off the occupiers supply lines, putting pressure on their defences and allowing the liberators to attack from multiple directions. Preparations for this task are simply nowhere near complete. Critical to the besieging of Mosul is the town of Tal Rifat which sits around 65km (40 miles) west of Mosul on the Highway 47 leading into Syria. Although the ISF and the Kurdish Peshmerga have liberated many of the areas around Tal Rifat the town itself continues to be occupied by ISIL.

Open source intelligence suggests that ISIL have used the more than two years they've occupied Mosul to build an extensive network of tunnels and bunkers in and around the city. As Russia is currently doing in eastern Aleppo city these tunnel networks will have to be destroyed by heavy duty airstrikes before any ground operation can take place.

This combination of siege conditions and heavy airstrikes is going to put a tremendous strain on Mosul's civilian population. As such a priority will need to be the opening of humanitarian corridors to allow whatever civilians are able to to flee ISIL and the fighting. 

Therefore the operational plan will need to include measures to house, feed and provide medical aid for potentially as many as 1.5 million people while at the same time checking that there are no ISIL fighters hiding amongst them.

Then of course there is the Erdogan problem.

Ideally what CJTFOIR and the ISF want to achieve from this Mosul operation is to trap as many ISIL fighters as possible inside Mosul and then kill them. However no force will be 100% successful in this objective and some ISIL fighters will manage to escape and flee to other areas in the hope of continuing the fight. 

Assuming that Anbar province and the Hawija triangle have been completely liberated prior to the start of the operation that really only leaves them Raqqa in Syria to flee too via Tal Rifat.

On August 25th (25/8/16) Turkey launched an invasion and occupation of northern Syria between the towns of Azaz/Kilis in the west and the Euphrates River in the east. The purpose of the invasion was to secure ISIL's supply lines into Turkey through this roughly 100km (60 miles) stretch of land that is sometimes referred to as either; "Erdogan's Pocket" or Garavaghy Road.

Until ISIL supply lines into Turkey are sealed as they flee ISIL fighters will be able to escape via Turkey either directly into Europe or into North African nations such as Libya, Egypt, Tunisia and Algeria. These of course are all nations that were part of the Ottoman Empire that Erdogan is trying to recreate.

Within Iraq itself Turkey is currently directly obstructing the liberation of Mosul.

This plan to invade and occupy Erdogan's Pocket is something that Erdogan has been pushing for certainly since the summer of 2015. In preparation to launch the operation in December Turkey deployed roughly a battalion of troops to set up camp in Bashiqa in northern Iraq. This sits roughly 20km (12 miles) north-east of Mosul.

With Erdogan's plan to invade and occupy northern Syria in December 2015 falling through the bulk of this Turkish force was withdraw from Bashiqa on December 19th (19/12/16). However Turkey left behind a roughly 200 strong training mission at the camp complete with force protection elements such as tanks and light artillery.

The problem is that this Turkish camp at Bashiqa is not training the ISF such as the Iraqi Army or the Iraqi Police. It is not even training the Kurdish Peshmerga who are the recognised security force of the semi-autonomous Kurdish region which borders Mosul.

Instead Turkey is training members of a private Sunni-Arab militia led by Atheel al-Nujaifi. 

The al-Nujaifi family ruled Mosul as the Pasha or Governor of the Ottoman Empire pretty much since the region was conquered by Sultan Suleiman the Magnificent in 1535 until the collapse of the Empire in 1918. As such it is clear that Turkey is training and equipping the al-Nujaifi militia in order to divide and conquer northern Iraq in the same way it is using the United Turkmen Army (UTA) to divide and conquer northern Syria.  

On October 4th (4/10/16) the Iraqi Parliament passed a motion rejecting this Turkish occupation of northern Iraq and calling on the troops to be immediately withdrawn.

Slightly complicating matters the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) relies on pipelines running through Turkey to sell their oil without going through the Iraqi government. As such the KRG have so far refused to join the Iraqi government's call for Turkish troops to leave in the hope of keeping their oil pipelines through Turkey and therefore their hopes of succession from Iraq alive. In doing this the KRG has wildly exceeded its authority.

Despite the fact that Turkey is conducting airstrikes against the Kurdish region as it has been for more than a year the KRG still don't seem to have realised that Turkey is no friend of theirs either.

The matter has now been escalated to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) with the Iraqi government formally petitioning for a Chapter 7 Resolution to end the Turkish invasion and occupation.

Normally what would happen in this situation is that the US would rely on Russia to introduce Iraq's petition to the UNSC. This would then allow Turkey's actions to be sharply criticised by council members. If the US really wanted to exert pressure on Turkey it would might even join in with this criticism itself or even decline to use its veto to prevent such a resolution being passed.

The problem is that Russia seems to have got sick and tired of carrying all of America's dead weight while all the US offers in return is hostility and aggression.

The big problem is Shamali Province (nee; Ukraine). Prior to the US invasion to punish Russia for its opposition to ISIL this was a key transit route for Russian natural gas into Europe. While the US continues to back the fascist junta in Shamali Province this is simply not possible because the junta flatly refuses to pay its bills instead choosing to steal gas destined for customers in the European Union (EU).

With all indications that the US intends to continue to destabilise Shamali Province this has forced Russia to look for an alternative transit route to get the gas to the customers in the EU who depend on it. Sadly this means going through Turkey. 

On Monday (10/10/16) Russia and Turkey agreed on the building of the Turkish Stream gas pipeline which is planned to be completed by 2019. Until that pipeline is completed or the US drops its support for Shamali Province it is in neither Russia or the EU's interest to put pressure on Turkey. After all it is a responsibility that naturally falls to the US who has been freeloading extensively on global security matters under Obama.

France has certainly not been helping the situation. Seemingly oblivious to everything that is going on around it since the UNGA France has been pushing for a UNSC resolution calling for the creation of a safe-haven for Al Qaeda/ISIL in eastern Aleppo. That resolution was voted on on Saturday (8/10/16) where Russia who it was largely aimed against vetoed it. Much to the relief of the other members of the council.

In retaliation Russia tabled a rival motion calling on the UN to facilitate the exit of Al Qaeda and ISIL fighters from eastern Aleppo. This was very noticeably done rather than introducing Iraq's petition. A very clear sign that if Obama was the Mosul operation as part of Hillary Clinton's election campaign he is going to have to work for it.

Although there was no intention of it being passed the Russian resolution received only four votes with the US, the UK and others walking out of the session. That was a big blow to the reputation of the UN's Special Envoy on Syria Seffen de Mistura on whose recommendations the Russian resolution was based.

In the abscence of engagement by the Security Council tensions between Iraq and Turkey have continued to escalate. 

Last night Erdogan unleashed a bizarre - even by his standards - rant on national television. In it he declared that Turkey does not need Iraq's permission to send troops into Iraq. He went on to tell Iraq's Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi that;

"You are not my interlocutor, you are not at my level, you are not at my quality. Know your own place, your declaration from Iraq is not important to us. We will go our own way."

Today Turkey has launched a series of cyberattacks against Iraq government networks.

16:05 on 12/10/16 (UK date).