Operation Featherweight: Month 28, Week 1, Day 3.

In the two days since my last post preparations have continued for a possible future operation to liberate the northern Iraqi city of Mosul from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).

I should probably start with ISIL's attack on Friday (21/10/16) on the Iraqi city of Kirkuk. This sits around 150km (90 miles) south-east of Mosul on the north-eastern outskirts of an ISIL occupied area known as the Hawija Triangle.

Pretty much as I was finishing my post on Friday (21/10/16) night the ISIL attack was coming to an end. It was amongst the messages I received on Saturday (22/10/16) morning - roughly lunchtime local time - that it was confirmed that the last of the roughly 50 ISIL fighters had been dislodged from the last offensive position they held in the city.

Immediately after the attack the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga who are currently responsible for security in Kirkuk pressed home their advantage. Over the course of Saturday (22/10/16) and Sunday (23/10/16) they successfully rounded up the remaining 50 or so members of the ISIL support cell that had been active in Kirkuk.

This included the cell's leader Mazin Nazhan Ahmed Abdullah al-Obeidi al-Riashi (AKA: "Abu Islam Ansari") who was actually captured by local residents in Kirkuk before being handed over injured to the Peshmerga. Under questioning al-Riashi confirmed that the attack had indeed originated within the Hawija Triangle and the ISIL cell had been able to infiltrate Kirkuk through a gap in the Khurmatu Front between the villages of Daquq and Bashir.

Unfortunately the reason why the Peshmerga were able to uncover and then neutralise al-Riashi's cell so quickly is that they were informed about it in an intelligence briefing from the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) on October 6th (6/10/16). However the US refused to allow the Peshmerga to act on that intelligence instead ordering them to concentrate on the current preparations for an operation to liberate Mosul.

During the course of efforts to repel the ISIL attack on Kirkuk the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) - conducted an airstrike on Daquq that killed 15 women civilians and injuring 50 more. To make matters worse the civilians killed in this airstrikes were all pilgrims visiting a Shia-Muslim shrine. Through its support for groups like ISIL the US is fast getting a reputation as an anti-Shia extremist group.

It seems to me that this airstrike was simply one of the mistakes that happens in the fog of war. In the frantic rush to repel the attack on Kirkuk the group was identified from the air as a column of ISIL fighters moving towards Kirkuk. The group was then struck before they could be properly identified as civilians.

The problem is that if the US admits that it makes mistakes then it also has to admit that the Syrian and Russian airforces also can make mistakes and tone down its rhetoric accordingly. So rather than simply admitting a mistake was made CJTFOIR is continuing to deny that it carried out the airstrike rather raising the question of what airforce that has so far previously been unknown to operate over Iraq carried out the airstrike.

To me that seems to be a very dangerous game. It immediately triggers speculation that the airstrike was carried out semi-deliberately by the Turkish airforce which has been operating independently of CJTFOIR and without the permission of the Iraqi government over northern Iraq since June of 2015. It's through its association with Turkey that the US is getting a reputation as an anti-Shia extremist group.

On Saturday (22/10/16) it was announced that combined ISF/Peshmerga forces had advanced on the Gwer Front south of Mosul to liberate the town of Hamdaniya/Bakhdida from ISIL. This sits just 13km (8 miles) south-east of the gates of Mosul. Unfortunately on Sunday (23/10/16) it was again announced that combined ISF/Peshmerga forces had liberated Hamdaniya/Bakhdida from ISIL. This suggests to me that they lost control of the town overnight and then had to regain it the following day.

This has been something of a persistent problem - particularly on the Gwer Front. It is also something that does not bode well for any operation to liberate Mosul itself. If the ISF/Peshmerga can't see these ISIL counter-attacks coming across the barren, open desert and prepare for them they are going to find it almost impossible to predict and respond to them amid the narrow urban streets and hidden tunnels of Mosul itself. That leaves me concerned that casualties from the operation to liberate Mosul itself are going to be extremely high.

There is also mounting evidence that a failure to properly prepare for any impending operation to liberate Mosul is going to take an unnecessarily high toll on the civilian population. The United Nations High Commission for Human Rights (UNHCHR) is currently investigating an incident that occurred on the Gwer Front in recent days.

Having declared a village liberated the ISF/Peshmerga forces then allowed civilians to return within a matter of hours. ISIL then counter-attacked the village massacring 40 families of these returning civilians. The UNHCHR are not at this time confirming the location of this massacre but it is believed to be in one of the villages surrounding the town of Balawat which is around 6km (3 miles) south of Hamdaniya/Bakhdida.

Although people are obviously in a rush to return to their homes this problem seems to stem from the US' approach to events in Aleppo City across the border in Syria.

There the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition who occupy east Aleppo City are using the local population as human shields. As you've no doubt seen every time the Syrian government move into try and liberate that part of the city the Army of Conquest point to the suffering of their civilian hostages and demand the Syrian government ends the offensive.

This is totally illegitimate way to behave during a war. The use of civilians as human shields not only constitutes a war crime but may well constitute a crime against humanity. What any armed force should do is exactly what the Syrian governments and their Russian backers are doing: Set up humanitarian corridors to allow civilians to flee areas of conflict and allow them to be cared for in camps for Internally Displaced People (IDP) until the can return once conflict has ended in a particular area.

Unfortunately the US along with other nations and, to their shame, the bodies of the UN have long been trying to legitimise the crimes of the Army of Conquest. This seems to have gone so far that CJTFOIR have failed to put into place proper preparations to protect the civilians of Mosul and the surrounding areas from the inevitable conflict in an effort to pretend that the Army of Conquest's behaviour is in any way legitimate.

As part of their efforts to repel advances to the south of Mosul on Thursday (20/10/16) ISIL set fire to a Sulphur processing plant on the outskirts of al-Qayyarah - around 65km (40 miles) south of Mosul - releasing a huge cloud of Sulphur Dioxide gas.

Although Sulphur is obviously one of the key ingredients in the Chemical Weapon Sulphur Mustard Gas Sulphur Dioxide itself is actually pretty harmless. Commonly used as a preservative for dried fruit its main risk to human health is that it is heavier than Oxygen. So in high enough concentrations Sulphur Dioxide replaces all the Oxygen in a person's lungs causing them to drown in Sulphur Dioxide in much the same way they would drown if their lungs became filled with water.

Rather amusingly on Thursday (20/10/16) the wind was blowing from south to north so by setting this factory ablaze all ISIL initially succeeded in doing was suffocating their own positions in Sulphur Dioxide. However through the course of Friday (21/10/16) the wind changed direction causing the death of at least two civilians in villages around al-Qayyarah.

It has also forced US troops located at Qayyarah Air Base to don HAZMAT suits. The ISF and particularly the Peshmerga still don't have access to this type of protective equipment.

With ISIL demonstrating that they long have/had access to the raw materials needed to manufacture large quantities of Sulphur Mustard Gas there is obviously a growing concern that they could make extensive use of Chemical Weapons in their defence of Mosul. Or in other nations in revenge for the liberation of Mosul.

On Sunday (23/10/16) the Peshmerga continued to advance from on the Tel Skuf Front to the north of Mosul. Specifically they advanced on two directions around Mount Bashiqa on the town of Bashiqa & Bahzani. There are currently conflicting reports as to whether the Peshmerga have succeeded in liberating the town itself.

As they advanced the Peshmerga claimed that the had liberated all the villages on the outskirts of Bashiqa & Bahzani and around the foot of Mount Bashiqa. This is not quite true. Rather than liberating the villages the Peshmerga have instead what is known as "Strong-pointed" them - essentially they've surrounded them with a cordon that is not rigid enough to constitute besieging them.

This is actually quite a common tactic when to you're trying to rapidly overrun an entire nation. Such as the US did when it invaded Iraq back in the 2003. The idea being that rather than trying to defeat every soldier in every little village you rush to take control of all the major cities. Once those are under your control and ideally the head of the nation's military has been captured all the soldiers in all the villages are then given the order to surrender.

The problem is that neither the ISF nor the Peshmerga are an invasion force. Instead they're trying to liberate Mosul from an invasion force. That invasion force - ISIL - is not a conventional army.

So if and when the ISF reach the centre of Mosul and raise their flag in the central square Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is not going to give those ISIL fighters in the outlying villages an order to lay down their arms and be taken prisoner. Instead they're going to keep fighting causing immense trouble behind the forward line as the ISF meets likely stiff resistance as it advances inside of Mosul.

The fact that the ISF/Peshmerga continue to seem intent on rushing headfirst into Mosul rather properly clearing the surrounding areas in advances leaves me concerned that rather than winning the battle the priority is still to generate positive headlines to get Hillary Clinton elected as US President.

The critical element of this plan to have the headline; "MOSUL LIBERATED!" out in time for the November 8th (8/11/16) election remains the decision to leave a vast 20,000kmsq (12,000 milesq) corridor west of Mosul in order to allow ISIL to escape back into Syria - the "Falls Road" as it's sometimes known. Everyday come fresh reports of hundreds of ISIL fighters using the route back into Syria without interference from CJTFOIR.

On Sunday (23/10/16) ISIL were even able to launch an offensive of their own to capture the town of Rutba. Sitting some 285km (170 miles) west of the city of Ramadi which itself was liberated from ISIL back in February 2016 Rutba is so deep into Anbar province it actually sits around 150km (90 miles) south of what is broadly considered the Falls Road.

Like all terrorist groups ISIL is very focused on propaganda. This means that their military operations are often focused not so much on what territory they can seize or even how many people they can kill but on being able to provide a steady stream of GoPro battle videos they can upload to the Internet for their supporters to drool over.

As such I think ISIL's main objective in capturing Rutba is to produce footage of a victory that they can use to counter all the footage of their defeats around Mosul.

However along with Friday's (21/10/16) attack on Kirkuk from the Hawija Triangle the capture of Rutba does demonstrate that whether Mosul is liberated or not ISIL will continue to operated in Iraq.

In fact having done a deal with the US to get Hillary Clinton elected I suspect ISIL are now trying to justify that deal to their supporters by reassuring them that after she has been elected with ISIL's support ISIL will continue with Hillary Clinton's support.

At around 16:45 on 24/10/16 (UK date) I'll pick this up after dinner.

Edited at around 18:40 on 24/10/16 (UK date) to add;

Looking back across the border into Syria it's easy to see why ISIL can imagine a very rosy future under Hillary Clinton.

Where the Euphrates River enters Turkey the Falls Road from Mosul reaches Garvaghy Road. Stretching for 100km (60 miles) from Azaz/Kilis in the west to the Euphrates River in the east this is the area that Turkey invaded on August 24th (24/8/16) and continues the militarily occupy.

Although it was only a thin pretence to begin with Turkey now seems to have dropped any attempt to pretend that the purpose of this invasion was anything other than to protect ISIL and their supply lines into Turkey from the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD).

Last Monday (17/10/16) ISIL and the Army of Conquest backed by Turkish artillery have launched sustained artillery and airstrikes against SDF positions in the villages of Um-Hosh and Um-Qura which sit to the south of Azaz. The purpose of these strikes is to prevent the Sunni-Arab Army of Revolution/Jaish al-Thuwar part of the SDF coalition from dislodging ISIL from positions in and around Marea. That sits around 20km (12 miles) south-east of Azaz and around 10km (6 miles) east of the SDF stronghold of Tall Rifat.

On Saturday (22/10/16) Turkey deployed a further 20 tank units across the border into Syria. These tanks immediately took up position on the outskirts of Marea specifically to prevent the SDF from advancing on ISIL positions around the town. They have then proceeded to fire almost continuously on SDF positions in the town of Sheikh Issa which sits between Marea and Tall Rifat.

Those artillery strikes continue to be accompanied by Turkish airstrikes. Today Turkey has excitedly declared that overnight it has succeeded in killing over 320 members of the SDF. However as always this Turkish claim seems wildly inflated and very far removed from the truth.

Despite Turkey no longer making any attempt to disguise its support for ISIL against the US-backed SDF on Friday (21/10/16) US Secretary of Defence Ash Carter went ahead with an official visit to Turkey.

Rather than securing an end to Turkish support for ISIL Secretary Carter then proceeded to visit the Iraqi capital Baghdad on Saturday (22/10/16) and the Iraqi Kurdish capital Erbil on Sunday (23/10/16) in order to pressure them into allowing Turkey to expand its support for ISIL to the Mosul operation.

For better or worse that US pressure appears to have paid off. When the Peshmerga began Sunday's (23/10/16) operation against Bashiqa & Bahzani they were accompanied by Turkish artillery fire from the Bashiqa military base. That of course is the military base that Turkey built on the ISIL side of the frontline in order to train the militia of the Nujaifi tribe which are not affiliated with either the ISF nor the Peshmerga.

When announcing that the Turkish military had finally succeeded in forcing its way into preperations for a Mosul operation Turkey's Prime Minister declared that the action was being taken at the request of the Peshmerga. That has since been strenuously denied by all Peshmerga commanders on the ground suggesting that the order was in fact given by US Secretary Carter in his meeting with the Kurdistan Regional President Masoud Barzani.

Emboldened by Sunday's decision for them to launch artillery strikes Turkey has today expanded its involvement to include airstrikes. As they have been doing on and off since June 2015 Turkey conducted airstrikes in the Mergesor district of northern Iraq - some 110km (65 miles) north of Mosul. Three civilians were reported killed in these attacks.

Along with the US ISIL themselves have continued to press for more Turkish involvement in any potential operation to liberate Mosul. This morning they launched another attack against the town of Sinjar/Shingal which sits at the base of the infamous Mount Sinjar.

As I mentioned in relation to last Wednesday's (19/10/16) ISIL attack on Sinjar/Shingal in the summer of 2014 it fell to the SDF to cross the border from Syria to rescue some 50,000 Yezidis who were trapped atop of Mount Sinjar. In order to prevent a repeat of that genocide the SDF then helped to organise two defence militia's - the Sinjar Resistance Units (YBS) and the Yezidi Protection Forces (HPE).

As with Wednesday's (19/10/16) attack today's ISIL attack on Sinjar seems intended to draw both the YBS and the HPE into battle. The hope being that these groups connection with the SDF will provide Turkey with all the pre-text it needs to attack Sinjar in order to; "Protect the local Sunni-Arab and Turkmen population from Kurdish terror!"

Within hours of today's attack during a meeting with his French counterpart Jean-Marc Ayrault in Ankara the Turkish Foreign Minister Melvut Cavusoglu declared that Turkey will not allow Sinjar to become another hideout for Kurdish terrorists.

This is while a Turkish newspaper linked to Cavusoglu's Justice & Development Party (AKP) today ran an editorial demanding that Mosul and all of northern Syria including Aleppo City be made parts of Turkey.  

20:00 on 24/10/16 (UK date).