Operation Featherweight: Month 27, Week 2, Day 5.

The key to defeating the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) has always been cutting the group's supply lines into Turkey.

It is through Turkey that ISIL are supplied with the majority of their fighters, weapons and equipment. In return ISIL export huge of amounts of oil from the oil fields they control back to Turkish oil refineries. That oil is then sold under the supervision of Turkish Energy Minister Berat Albayrak and Bilal Erdogan. They are the son-in-law and son of Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

In July of 2015 the anti-ISIL Syrian Democrat Forces (SDF/QSD) liberated the Syrian town of Sarrin. With Sarrin sitting on the eastern banks of the Euphrates River this completed the creation of a roughly 12,000kmsq (7,200msq) buffer-zone between ISIL positions in Syria and the Turkish border. This sits alongside a similar buffer-zone cutting off ISIL's access to Turkey across the entire length of Iraq's border with Turkey.

The next logical step would have been for the SDF to cross the Euphrates River and advance the roughly 120km (70 miles) west to the city of Afrin. This would completely cut ISIL off from their Turkish ally.

Obviously Turkey and in particular Erdogan were extremely opposed to this. 

In response to the liberation of Sarrin Erdogan spent almost the entire second half of 2015 threatening to launch a fullscale military invasion of Syria in order to protect ISIL's supply lines. Planning for this operation reached such an advanced stage that it even had a proposed D-Day of December 16th 2015 (16/12/15). However following a smaller scale invasion of the Bashiqa area of northern Iraq to test the waters Turkey was forced to abandon its invasion plan and on December 19th (19/9/16) and the bulk of Turkish forces were withdrawn from Bashiqa.

In April 2016 the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) which make up the bulk of the SDF advanced from Afrin to liberate the town of Tall Rifat from ISIL. Their advance east to link up with the full SDF forces in Sarrin was only halted when Turkey decided to provide ISIL with artillery support opening fire on the YPG/SDF.

The liberation of Tall Rifat reduced ISIL's supply lines with Turkey to a roughly 100km (60 miles) stretch of border between Azaz/Kilis which sit north of Tall Rifat in the west and the Euphrates River in the east. This area is often referred to either as; "Erdogan's Pocket" or "Garvaghy Road."

In May 2016 the SDF crossed the Euphrates River to liberate the city of Manbij which sits on its western banks. Following a painfully slow operation which saw the SDF sustain significant losses Manbij was finally liberated on August 13th (13/8/16). This seemed to make the complete sealing of Erdogan's Pocket and ISIL's supply lines imminent.

Erdogan was obviously not keen on seeing ISIL's supply lines cut bringing an end to all that lovely oil money flowing into his families bank accounts. So he immediately revived his plan for a formal Turkish invasion of Syria in order to protect ISIL and the group's supply lines.

What US President Barack Obama - as the Commander-in-Chief of the US-led anti-ISIL coalition - obviously should have done is what was done in December 2015;

Tell Erdogan that under absolutely no circumstances would a Turkish invasion of Syria be tolerated. If Turkey continues to support ISIL in any way, shape or form it will seriously jeopardise the nation's relationship with the rest of the coalition and the wider international community.

Unfortunately at that point Obama either lost his nerve or lost sight of the fact that ISIL are the enemy.

So rather than giving a Erdogan a firm "No" ending any talk of a Turkish invasion there and then Obama decided he could manage the situation by giving Erdogan permission for a limited incursion. The incursion was supposed to be strictly limited to the town of Jarablus which is right on the Syria/Turkey border on the western banks on the Euphrates. The incursion was also supposed to be strictly limited in time ending on September 6th (6/9/16) - the day before the start of the 2016 Para-Olympic games.

That Turkish incursion began on August 24th (24/8/16). Literally within hours it became apparent that Erdogan would not be abiding by the limits placed on the incursion by Obama. On the night of the 24th Turkish forces - both regular and irregular - advanced south from Jarablus to attack SDF positions in and around Manbij. These attacks involved the use by Turkey of Chemical Weapons - specifically Sulphur Mustard Gas. Perhaps even more critically they were directed against US Special Operations Forces who were embedded with the SDF in Manbij.

With Obama's restrictions being completely ignored and the Turkish incursion becoming a full and likely permanent it became vital that Obama used his meeting with Erdogan at the G20 Summit on September 4th (4/9/16) to remind Erdogan of the US position. That is that Turkish forces fully withdraw from Syria by September 6th.

Again though Obama either lost his nerve or sight of the fact that ISIL are the enemy.

So again rather than giving Erdogan a firm ultimatum Obama decided that he could manage the situation. Obama decided that it was okay for Erdogan to embed Turkish forces with ISIL provided they didn't attack Manbij. Instead they were to focus their attentions on the town of Al-Bab which sits around 45km (25 miles) south-west of Manbij.

From a strategic perspective this is simply unacceptable. Al-Bab sits on a main road between Turkey  and Raqqa - ISIL's de facto capital in Syria. Therefore allowing Turkey/ISIL to maintain control over Al-Bab renders the liberation of Manbij irrelevant by allowing ISIL's supply line into Turkey to circumvent the city.

Quite apart from the fact that it leaves ISIL's supply lines intact this latest compromise of Obama's meant that there would still be intense fighting during the Para-Olympic games. This goes against the tradition of there being a global truce during Olympic and Para-Olympic games. It is a particular issue this year because many felt that the games should have been cancelled this year as they were in 1940 and 1944 due to the war.

Desperate to avoid taking responsibility for an increase in fighting during the games Obama then proceeded to secure a truce - any sort of truce - in Syria. With the games coinciding with the Feast of Sacrifice (Eid al-Adha) this struck me as a needless effort because it was extremely likely that a short term truce would take place even if no-one officially called it such.

However Obama was clearly desperate to take credit for negotiating a truce.

Having been banned from the Para-Olympics over their opposition to ISIL and with an election coming up Russia was more than happy to help Obama grab his headlines. After all there is no worse punishment you can inflict on America and the west than giving it exactly what it is demanding in Syria.

Alongside steering them to Manbij a key element of Obama's attempts to manage the Turkish invasion was to try to embed US Special Operations Forces (SOF) within the Turkish regular and irregular forces. As with all other elements of Obama's attempts to contain the threat of Erdogan/ISIL this rapidly and dramatically collapsed. On September 16th (16/9/16) Turkish irregular forces expelled the US SOF's from the town of Al-Rai - roughly 30km (20 miles) north of Al-Bab.

Disguised as members of an ambulance crew these armed men screamed; "Death to America" whilst calling the US troops dogs, crusaders and pigs as they threatened to kill them. This is pretty much the standard coverage the US receives in Turkey's extremely closely controlled media these days.

Whilst this was going on the reality of the ceasefire they had secured was slowly starting to dawn on the US.

There are currently upwards of 7000 individual armed groups operating within Syria. However excluding Syrian government forces and the SDF they can really be divided into two main groups; ISIL and the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah.

The Army of Conquest itself is made up of four main groups. 

The largest of these is the Al Nusra Front/Jabhat al-Nusra (JAF). They are Al Qaeda's affiliate in Syria. However with support for Al Qaeda being banned by a host of international laws - UN Security Council (UNSC) resolutions etc - and a host of US federal laws they have recently changed their name to the Front for the Conquest of the Levant/Jabhat Fatah al-Sham. It is widely recognised that this name change was simply an attempt to circumvent sanctions against Al Qaeda and the group is still considered an active part of Al Qaeda.

The second largest group within the Army of Conquest is the Islamic Movement of the Freemen of the Levant/Harakat Ahrar ash-Sham al-Islamiyya (Ahrar al-Sham). As their name suggests their ideology is the same as ISIL. To create an ethnically and religiously pure Sunni Islamic state within the Levant region.

A third large group within the Army of Conquest is the Syrian Turkmen Brigades/United Turkmen Army (STB/UTA). With divisions taking their names from famous Ottoman Sultans such as Mehmed the Conqueror the UTA are irregular Turkish forces fighting illegally within Syria. Part of the Paramilitary wing of the Turkish Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) their objective is to re-establish the Ottoman Empire - the last Islamist Caliphate.

A smaller but significant group within the Army of Conquest is the Army of Islam/Jaish al-Islam (JAI). They are extremely nasty. Not only do they share ISIL's ideology in the past JAI have been known to execute members of ISIL for not being extreme enough.

The Army of Conquest has a long history of collaborating with ISIL. Most notably during the 2015 Northwestern offensive. This was co-ordinated with ISIL in order to stretch Syrian government forces to allow ISIL to capture Palmyra in May 2015. Under instruction from Turkey the Army of Conquest has also frequently co-ordinated their actions with ISIL within Erdogan's Pocket with the towns of Marea and Cobanbey being passed back and forth between the groups on command from Ankara.

It is the Army of Conquest who currently occupy the east of Aleppo City. It is also who people are talking about when they refer to; "The moderate opposition."

The Army of Conquest group that is particularly active in east Aleppo City is the Movement of Nour al-Din al-Zenki/Harakat Nour al-Din al-Zenki group. They take their name from a Turkish atabeg (roughly Lord) who ruled what is now Aleppo province in the 11th Century.It was a photographer from Harakat Nour al-Din al-Zenki that produced those propaganda images of Omran Daqneesh that the western media seemed to get itself overexcited about.

Despite being prone to beheading children they consider infidels, using children for propaganda purposes and being allied with Al Qaeda Harakat Nour al-Din al-Zenki has in the past been supplied with weapons - specifically TOW anti-tank missiles - by the US.

Overthrowing the Syrian government or even putting in place a long term ceasefire within Syria means granting sanctuary to the Army of Conquest and their allies ISIL. 

Due to the extremely violent nature of these groups and their desire to attack western nations such as the US such an idea runs completely against the interests of the US and other western nations. So much so that the US actually has specific Federal laws preventing Obama - or any other President - from doing such a thing.

So great is the threat of this type of behaviour to international peace and security that the global community - through the UN Charter - has passed laws making it completely illegal and something that no nation can call for.

With the reality of the extent to which Russia had decided to punish the US combined with Obama's total failure to manage the threat posed by Erdogan the US then proceeded to have something resembling a nervous breakdown.

A key element of this was the series of bombings the US experienced in New Jersey and New York City between September 17th (17/9/16) and September 19th (19/9/16).

I should start by making clear that the alleged attacker Ahmad Khan Rahami is most certainly an Islamist terrorist and his intention was to cause substantial loss of life. However as he was carrying out his attacks he seems to have been under extremely close surveillance.

So when Rahami planted a bomb along the route of the Seaside Park 5km race the surveillance team were on hand to call in a bomb threat delaying the start of the race. When Rahami planted a bomb on a New York street the surveillance team were on hand to put into in a steel container meaning that you got the bang but not the bodies.

'Homeless' people are particularly good for this type of surveillance. After all people seem to spend an awful lot of effort trying to avoid noticing homeless people in the first place.

Explaining what the US was trying to achieve through these bombings is rather difficult. In part that is because the whole thing stank of panic with the US itself seeming unsure of what it was trying to say. Plus occurring during the Para-Olympics it seemed to be done in that spirit of raising issues for discussion rather than making definitive statements.

The style of the bombing using pressure cooker bombs and targeting road races was very reminiscent of the 2013 Boston Marathon bombing. That itself was intended as many things but with the attackers coming from Dagestan it was intended as a threat to Russia that the US would arrange for the 2014 Sochi games to be attacked if Russia didn't drop its opposition to ISIL. 

Within Olympic circles that obviously remains a contentious topic. Particularly with the US topping the medal table at the 2016 ISIL games.

The specific road race being targeted in Seaside Park was to benefit US Marines. In protest over Turkey's invasion of Syria the UK raised the story of a UK Royal Marine being charged with terrorism offences. The natural enemy of the Royal Marine is the UK Parachute regiment sometimes known as; "The Para's." These are the equivalent of the US's 101st or 82nd Airborne divisions. They wear the same maroon beret as the very special forces Turkey has deployed to support ISIL.

In response to the Turkish invasion the Obama administration spoke of its desire to protect marine life - as in animals that live in water - at all costs. This gave a lot of people the distinct impression that Obama simply did not understand what was being said to him. In response to the bombings the UK blamed a high profile double murder on; "Mistaken Identity."

The New York City bombings took place in an area of Manhattan known as "Chelsea." This could be taken as a reference to Hillary Clinton's daughter Chelsea or the Russian owned English football club Chelsea which in turn could be a reference to me. However again there was no definitive statement.

The third bombing took place in Elizabeth, New Jersey. The UK Queen is of course Queen Elizabeth II. Following the discovery of this bomb a bomb disposal robot was destroyed when it detonated the device. Bomb disposal robots and robots in general were big talking points during the games.

The overriding image of the NJ/NYC bombings was of the US under increased threat of terrorist attack. That threat will only increase the longer the war in Syria and Iraq drags on. Particularly if Obama is able to achieve his aim of creating sanctuaries for ISIL and the Army of Conquest in east Aleppo City.

Rather proving the point that the US is at increased risk of terror attack a second terror attack actually took place on September 17th. This time it was a stabbing attack at a shopping mall in St Cloud, Minnesota. 

The attacker who was the only one killed in the attack was a refugee from Obama's fatherland Kenya. The attack also occurred at the Crossroads Center. I think it is fair to say that Obama's Syria strategy is at a bit of a crossroads. However I think that despite these references unlike the NJ/NYC bombings this was one of the lone-wolf attacks that the US had failed to identify and place under surveillance.

Not only had the previous week seen the Feast of Sacrifice it also saw the annual Hajj pilgrimage to Mecca. Therefore as with Ramadan it was likely that the days after would see an increase in violence just as surely as the week saw an unspoken ceasefire. Having a relatively large ethnically Somali and Kenyan Muslim population otherwise white, polite borderline Canadian Minnesota is actually the US' capital for Islamist terrorism.

The alleged NJ/NYC attacker Ahmad Khan Rahami is originally from Afghanistan and is a member of the Pashto - sometimes referred to as "East Iranians" - ethnic group. This obviously referenced the June 12th (12/6/16) Islamist terror attack against the Pulse Nightclub in Orlando, Florida in which 49 people were murdered by an ethnic Pashto.

Taking to the floor of Congress waving rainbow flag coloured placards calling for more gun control the Democrats seemed to view that attack as a perfectly normal part of Hillary Clinton's election campaign.

Saturday the 17th (17/9/16) was a particularly busy day. Apart from the terror attacks in New Jersey, New York, City and Minnesota it was also the day that the US decided to deploy Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) as ISIL's air force against the Syrian government.

For several hours and despite repeated warnings from Russia on that Saturday CJTFOIR aircraft attacked Syrian government troops in their positions around Deir-ez-Zour airport. This sits around 130km (80 miles) south-east of Raqqa along the Euphrates River. 

The purpose of the CJTFOIR onslaught was to provide close air support to allow ISIL to take control of a strategic hill overlooking the airport. This creates a very real risk that the Syria government will be unable to re-supply its forces in the city causing it to fall to ISIL.

The reason for the US to do this was really threefold;

Firstly it was to do something so outrageous that Russia would have no choice other than to back out of the ceasefire digging Obama out of the mess he'd got himself in. Coming the day before the Russian election this was never going to happen. The frankly childish response US Ambassador to the UN Samantha Power gave to the UNSC session Russia called in response only contributed to the sense of an administration that has lost touch with reality and is flailing wildly out of control.

Secondly the attack was carried out by a number of nations in the CJTFOIR coalition. However it was planned and led by the US. That obviously poses the question within the coalition of whether Obama can any longer be considered a fit person to lead CJTFOIR.

Finally all the aircraft involved flew from Iraq. Therefore when Obama says that he can't tell Erdogan "No" because the loss of Incirilk airbase in Turkey will cripple CJTFOIR's operation he is simply lying. 

This of course all occured against the backdrop of the annual opening of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) which is possibly the worst time imaginable.

Sadly I will have to pick that up at a later date.

20:05 on 3/10/16 (UK date).