On Monday (17/10/16) the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) and the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga - but primarily the Peshmerga - announced the start of a joint operation to liberate the city of Mosul in northern Iraq. Mosul has functioned as the de facto capital of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) in Iraq since June of 2014.
Since then not much has happened.
As I said at the time this is not an operation to liberate Mosul. Instead it is an operation to get forces into positions from where they can plan and then launch an operation to liberate Mosul. Those forces are being moved into position to the north, east and south of the city.
In the north the Peshmerga are gathering on what is known as the Tel Skuf Front. Tel Skuf being a town some 25km (15 miles) from the outskirts of Mosul. In January through to February 2015 the Peshmerga launched an operation to liberate the Mosul Dam which sits around 35km (20 miles) north-west of Mosul. As part of that operation the Peshmerga removed ISIL from the areas between the Mosul Dam and Tel Skuf.
Today the Peshmerga have advanced in an arc south from Tel Skuf to liberate the towns of Batnay and Tel Kayf in the hope of extending the front to a 30km (20 mile) line between the town of Badush to the west and the town of Bashiqa to the east. As far as I can tell at the time of writing they have succeeded in reaching the town of Batnay which sits around 8km (5 miles) south of Tel Skuf and around 15km (10 miles) north of their objective.
In the east combined ISF/Peshmerga forces are gathering on the Kalak Front. This is essentially where Highway 2 from Erbil to Mosul crosses the Great Zab River - roughly 35km (20 miles) east of Mosul.
On Monday (17/10/16) the advanced to liberate the town of Bartella which sits around 25km (15 miles) west of Kalak along Highway. However I should point out that rather than driving in a convoy along the Highway they are spread out in a line clearing the areas around the Highway as they go. As far as I can tell at the time of writing although they reached Bartella on Monday they have yet to enter the town let alone liberate it.
In the south combined ISF/Peshmerga forces are advancing from two main directions.
The first of these is the Gwer Front which is essentially the northern bank of the Great Zab River some 45km (25 miles) south-east of Mosul along Highway 80. The second of these is Al Qayyarah Air Base some 65km (40 miles) south of Mosul along the Tigris River. It is here that US Special Operations Forces (SOF) and US Marine Corp artillery units are based.
On Monday (17/10/16) the Peshmerga advanced from the Gwer front to the town of Hamman al-Alil some 20km (12 miles) south of Mosul. The idea being that forces from Al Qayyarah will arc around to the west to extend what will become the Hamman al-Alil Front while forces from the Gwer front will advance extending the line to the east.
Unfortunately this already seems to have fallen behind schedule. The Peshmerga reached Hamman al-Alil on Monday (17/10/16) but as far as I can tell at time of writing have not yet entered the town.
The forces advancing from Al-Qayyarah have only succeeded in reaching the town of Al-Baydah which sits on Highway 1 around 25km (15 miles) south-west of Hamman al-Alil. Their control of the area between Al-Baydah and the Tigris River is patchy at best.
Forces advancing along the Gwer Front have been slowed almost to a halt in the Hamdaniya district.
On Monday (17/10/16) the succeeded in liberating the ancient city of Nimrud which sits around 10km (6 miles) north of where the Tigris and Great Zab Rivers meet. Yesterday (19/10/16) they succeeded in forcing ISIL to abandon the town of Kani Harami which sits around 15km (10 miles) north of Nimrud and around 13km (8 miles) south-east of Hamman al-Alil. They are currently battling ISIL for control of the Christian village of Abbas just north or Kani Harami.
What is really slowing down progress is the extensive network of tunnels, bunkers and trenches that ISIL have constructed in and around Mosul. Some of these trenches can be 100ft (30 metres/yards) deep and wide enough to drive fully laden trucks through.
On Monday (17/10/16) the CNN reporter Nick Paton-Walsh got a dramatic introduction to how difficult this type of tunnel warfare can be.
Embedded with Peshmerga forces the convoy Paton-Walsh was travelling in came under attack by an ISIL fighter who'd suddenly popped up from one of these tunnel entrances. With the Peshmerga returning fire the ISIL fighter simply ducked back into the tunnel before popping up at another entrance. When he did this for a third time he found himself surrounded by Peshmerga fighters so detonated a suicide vest. Although one Peshmerga was wounded fortunately none were killed in these attacks.
While the Peshmerga are made of sterner stuff the reaction of Paton-Walsh shows you the sort of panic this type of sudden attack by an unseen enemy popping up from a tunnel can cause.
The problem of course being that for much of the last two months the US and other members of the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) - have been loudly condemning Russia for using bunker-buster type bombs to clear eastern Aleppo City, Syria of this type of tunnel and bunker network.
So rather than admitting that they've been lying for these past two months CJTFOIR is now refusing to use bunker-buster type weapons to clear the tunnel and bunker networks around Mosul jeopardising the entire operation.
Another major concern I have is that in the last couple of days much of the fighting has been described as; "Fierce." Obviously journalists - particularly American ones - have a huge incentive to make everything sound as dramatic as possible. However I have also been hearing this type of comment from military commanders.
ISIL have obviously been trying to defend their positions using small arms fire and Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Devices (VBIED's). However having been following events around Mosul for more than two years now I know that ISIL attacks of this nature on one or another of the various frontlines is almost a weekly occurrence. It is only because the attacks are now being launched defensively across multiple fronts at the same time that they seem so intense.
If particularly Peshmergas who have dealt with this intensity of attack almost as a matter of routine are now describing it as; "Fierce" I am extremely concerned that they have very badly underestimated the level or resistance they are going to face once they enter Mosul itself.
I am also extremely concerned that this is all being described as; "The Operation to Liberate Mosul" when it clearly isn't.
What I would have liked to have seen done is for it to be barely announced that the ISF/Peshmerga were conducting a small operation to liberate the villages around, say, Tel Skuf. Then with things happening elsewhere in Iraq such as the Hawija triangle they would barely announce just a small operation to liberate some of the villages around, say, Nimrud. The idea being to get forces into position to launch an operation to liberate Mosul almost without ISIL realising that was what was happening.
By announcing with massive fanfare that the Mosul operation is underway what could be as much as a month before it is actually underway ISIL have already moved into a defensive posture. For the most part this involves them rounding up civilians in Mosul a dozen at a time and murdering them as spies. To my mind those are civilians who are being killed needlessly.
Despite all the excited talk about preparations being made to the north, the east and the south it is clear that there is one vital element of the plan that is missing; Preparations to stop ISIL bringing in reinforcements from or escaping back into Syria.
By failing to deploy any force to the west of Mosul CJTFOIR is providing ISIL with an area of around 20,000kmsq (12,000milesq) area in which to escape into Syria. Following a theme I've decided to name this area the "Falls Road" after the Falls Road in Belfast Northern Ireland.
One of the main things driving the sense of urgency amongst Iraqis to liberate Mosul was the fate of the some 3,500 women and girls that ISIL has been holding as sex slaves within the city. These are the predominately Yezidi women and girls who were kidnapped from the areas around Mount Sinjar/Shingal when ISIL first swept into Iraq in 2014.
As I've been writing I've begun to receive reports that these sex slaves have already been moved by ISIL along the Falls Road to Raqqa - their de facto capital in Syria.
16:45 on 20/10/16 (UK date).
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