Operation Featherweight: Month 28, Week 1, Day 6.

Following my post on Monday (24/10/16) on preparations for an operation to liberate the Iraqi city of Mosul from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) I said I was aiming to provide updates every other day. That of course was three days ago.

The reason for the delay is that no much has been happening. Following the gains over the weekend preparations have settled into something of a planned consolidation phase. This allows all the different forces an opportunity to re-group, re-arm and generally re-organise themselves for the next advance.

I should probably start by giving an update on the situation in Rutba. Despite sitting some 500km (300 miles) south-west of Mosul this is the town in Anbar province that ISIL seized control of on Sunday (23/10/16). This ISIL takeover of Rutba was shortlived though. The Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) regained full control of the town on Tuesday (25/10/16) evening.

However an ISIL presence does continue both in and around Rutba and within Anbar province in general. Just this morning the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) - reported that it had destroyed an ISIL convoy of 10 vehicles on the outskirts of Rutba.

In terms of Mosul itself preparations to move forces into positions ahead of an attempt to liberate the city have continued to the north, the east and the south.

In the north the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga have continued to advance in and around the town of Bashiqa & Bahzani.

Although they have not yet entered and secured that town itself they have been able to enter and secure some of the near-by villages that they surrounded or; "Strong-Pointed" over the weekend. Most notably Tiz Khrab Bchuck and Tiz Khrab Gawra which sit around 12km (7 miles) from Mosul. Today the Peshmerga are reported to be moving into fully secure the village of Faziliya.

To the east on Monday (24/10/16) the Peshmerga entered the town of Top Zawa. Sitting just 8km (5 miles) from Mosul this is as far as the Peshmerga will advance. As a result they have spent the three days since working to completely secure the town and establish defensive positions.

On a front where the Peshmerga and the ISF have been working in combination the ISF have made dramatic progress. Last Thursday (20/10/16) they succeeded in securing the town of Bartella which sits 10km (6 miles) from Mosul.

This seems to have triggered either a collapse or a tactical withdrawal by ISIL on the front. The ISF were then able to rapidly advance to secure the town of Khazna which sits 8km (5 miles) from Mosul and enter the town of Bazwaia which sits 2km (1 mile) from Mosul. Yesterday it was reported that the ISF elite Counter Terrorism Unit (CTU/Golden Brigade) were mounting raids into the Gogjali district of eastern Mosul.

However to the south of the city progress has been dramatically less rapid.

On the Gwer Front to the south-east over the weekend the ISF entered the town of Hamdaniya/Bakhdida which sits just 13km (8 miles) south-east of the gates of Mosul. However they have not yet been able to fully secure the town. They have though been able to secure the town of Balawat which sits 5km (3 miles) south-east of Hamdaniya.

On the Qayyarh Front to the south-west of Mosul things seem to have ground to a complete halt. On the first day of operations (17/10/16) the Peshmerga pushed up from the town of Al-Qayyarh to the town of Hammam al-Aili which sits 8km (5 miles) from Mosul. Since then though there appears to have been absolutely no progress.

Currently the most advanced ISF positions I have confirmed are at the town of Safiyah which sits 10km (6 miles) south of Hammam al-Aili and Abu Fishkah which sits 14km (8 miles) south-west of Hammam al-Aili. Today I'm getting reports that the ISF are now advancing from Safiyah to Hammam al-Aili. Even if they do reach their destination soon that still leaves a vast area south-west of Mosul between the Tigris River and the M1 Motorway down to Abu Fishkah.

There of course remains absolutely no ISF/Peshmerga presence to the west of Mosul as the operation appears to remain committed to this idea of leaving this vast 20,000kmsq (12,000 milesq) corridor - the "Falls Road" - open to allow ISIL to escape back into Syria.

As I've said before what we are currently witnessing is not yet an operation to liberate Mosul. Instead it is an operation to move forces into positions from where they can plan an operation to liberate Mosul.

Even when the Peshmerga have fully secured the Tel Skuf Front around Bashiqa & Bahzani and the ISF have established their secured forward positions on the Qayyarah Front I think it could still be weeks if not a month before the operation to liberate Mosul can begin. Obviously I don't want to go into too much detail but I think that it is fair to say that over the past nearly two weeks of operations we've gained a clearer idea of how ISIL intend to defend Mosul. Once forces are in position the task will be to study those defences in detail in order to identify the weak-points and then attack against those weak-points in order to make ISIL's defences collapse as quickly and painlessly as possible.

Although I'm probably already saying too much as it stands it appears as though the ISF are planning on launching a simple frontal assault of Mosul moving east to west. This plan is almost entirely dependent on ISIL sticking to the deal they've done with the US to only mount a symbolic defence of Mosul before largely escaping to Syria. ISIL of course may back out of that deal at any point and I've heard just the faintest whisper of a rumour that the PMF may be planning a little surprise for them. If that critical part of the plan has changed then the whole plan must change. Even if it hasn't it's a good idea to have a Plan B ready to go in case Plan A fails.

The problem with leaving the Falls Road open of course is that it gives ISIL a route from Mosul up the Euphrates River basin past their de facto capital of Raqqa into an area of northern Syria known as; "Garvaghy Road."

This is the roughly 100km (60 mile) wide are between the Euphrates in the east and the town of Azaz/Kilis in the east which Turkey invaded on August 24th (24/8/16) specifically to protect ISIL's supply lines to and from Turkey from the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Obviously if ISIL fighters can reach Garvaghy Road from Mosul then they can reach Europe and the rest of the World from Turkey.

Since last Monday (17/10/16) ISIL and the allied Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) backed by regular Turkish forces deploying both artillery and air strikes have been trying to expand Garvaghy Road westwards by attacking SDF positions to the south of Azaz.

Having deployed 20 more tanks into the nearby town of Marea on Saturday (22/10/16) Turkey is reported to have deployed some of its Maroon beret Special Forces to the town and has intensified its artillery and air strikes on the SDF. On Tuesday (25/10/16) these attacks included the use of Chemical Weapons against the SDF by Turkish backed forces.

Also on Tuesday (25/10/16) there was an incident that really serves to underline both the complexity and the severity of the situation in Syria.

Turkey has invaded Syria in order to protect ISIL from the SDF who are trying to protect themselves from ISIL. ISIL is also fighting the Syrian government. So on Tuesday (25/10/16) the Syrian government conducted airstrikes against Turkish backed forces killing 4 of them close to the town of Dabiq which is roughly 20km (12 miles) south-east of Azaz and around 8km (5 miles) north-east of Marea.

This takes us dangerously close to a point where the illusion of a proxy-war with groups like ISIL and the Army of Conquest disappears and this becomes an overt war between Turkey as a nation state and Syria as a nation state.

Syria is currently being backed by Russia. If Russia backs Syria in a war against Turkey that raises the question of whether NATO will in turn back Turkey against Russia. However it must be said with this confrontation taking place some 25km (15 miles) inside Syrian territory with Turkey very clearly acting as the aggressor under no interpretation would NATO's Article 5 mutual defence clause apply.

This situation rather neatly brings me on to US Secretary of Defence Ash Carter's recent travels.

Despite Turkey's continued occupation of northern Syria and it's launching on October 17th (17/10/16) of a fresh assault on the US-backed SDF Secretary Carter still went ahead with a visit to Turkey last Friday (21/10/16) to receive his latest orders for the Mosul operation. He then travelled to impose those orders on the Iraqi government on Saturday (22/10/16) and on the Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) on Sunday (23/10/16).

On Tuesday (25/10/16) Secretary Carter decided that it might be an idea to consult some of the US' allies with a CJTFOIR meeting in Paris, France. Yesterday (26/10/16) and today (27/10/16) Secretary Carter has been meeting with his NATO counterparts in Brussels, Belgium.

With Brussels being the scene of the March 22nd (22/3/16) ISIL terror attacks I think it is fair to say that Secretary Carter has experienced some push back against his plan to grant ISIL fighters safe passage from Mosul to Europe via Turkey. In response Secretary Carter has been talking up the prospect of an operation to liberate Raqqa in; "The Coming Weeks."

That time-frame is wildly unrealistic. Long before plans for an operation to liberate Raqqa can be drawn Turkey needs to withdraw its occupation forces from Garvaghy Road. This is something that should have happened on September 6th (6/9/16).

Once Turkish forces have withdrawn the SDF then need to move into secure Garvaghy Road - particularly the town of Al-Bab. Only once that has been achieved can we start thinking about what equipment needs to be supplied to the SDF or what Iraqi forces they can be allied with in order to mount an operation to liberate Raqqa.

Based on the 75 days it took the SDF to liberate the city of Manbij in order to get to the planning stage of a Raqqa operation we're talking about how ever long it takes for Turkey to withdraw its forces plus another five months. However it must be said with Turkish forces withdrawn and proper support from CJTFOIR the SDF's progress from Manbij to Azaz is likely to be much more rapid.

As it stands US President Barack Obama spoke to Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan yesterday and has still not told him that he must withdraw his forces. That is despite Erdogan now being more than 50 days beyond the agreed withdrawal date.

Obama's failure to act is of course extremely frustrating. Due to the security threat to the rest of the World it is debatable whether the Mosul operation can even begin until the SDF have sealed Garvaghy Road.

17:40 on 27/10/16 (UK date).