Today Egypt is largely in shock following a violent confrontation between the Muslim Brotherhood and the military outside the Republican Guard Headquarters in Cairo. This confrontation spilled over into rioting in the surrounding streets including on the October 6th bridge. So far it seems that a minimum of 42 (health ministry source) people were killed in this violence although the Muslim Brotherhood claim that number to be much higher.
As I mentioned in my previous post on the subject tensions in Cairo were beginning to rise again last night with revolutionaries gathering in protest in Tahrir Square and the Muslim Brotherhood gathering in protest both in Nasr city and at the Republican Guard HQ. While the protest in Tahrir Square remained static and peaceful the Muslim Brotherhood demonstration marched from Nasr city to the Republican Guard HQ swelling the numbers there to several thousand. At the edges of this demonstration men armed with knives and clubs began attacking soldiers on foot forcing them back into their vehicles and away from the scene. Now this could have just been the actions of a few hot-heads with a grudge against the military. However it could also have been a much more co-ordinated attempt to soften-up the defences at the Republican Guard HQ before morning prayers were used as the trigger to launch a full-scale frontal assault on the building in order to free Mohamed Morsi and no doubt kill and injure a significant number of soldiers/police in the process.
The military commanders on the ground clearly decided it was the latter and in light of recent events in the Sinai who can blame them. So the military moved into better control the demonstration first by putting some distance between it and the walls of the Republican Guard HQ and also to disarm it by seizing weapons and arresting the main troublemakers. Rather than simply charging out of the gates of the barracks the military instead moved in from their right flank during morning prayers in an effort to minimise the risk to all parties. Unfortunately the Muslim Brotherhood then opened fire on the military with live rounds. This forced the soldiers to return live fire under their universal right to self-defence. Being the better shots the military lost 2 soldiers during this firefight while 35 Muslim Brotherhood members were killed. This then triggered rioting in and around the surrounding streets during which 5 bystanders appear to have been killed.
Almost immediately the Muslim Brotherhood declared the incident to be a "massacre" and urged it's supporters to take up arms in revolt against the military. Sadly this seems to be the Brotherhood's new plan. Rather than working within the government of national unity to form a new civilian, democratic government they now intend to provoke the military into acts of violence which they will then label 'atrocities' in much the same way the Saudi and Qatari Irregular Army (SQIA) provoked the Syrian military. The Brotherhood then hope that as in Syria weapons will come flooding in from Egypt's Sunni neighbours so they can overthrow the Egyptian military and anyone else who disagrees with them. As both Saudi Arabia and Qatar are currently under a immense amount of behind the scenes pressure internationally for supplying weapons to Syria I think this is extremely unlikely to happen. However reassurances from key players such as the US would go a long way to giving the Egyptian military the confidence it needs to deal with the nations more extreme Islamist elements.
In response to today's events Egypt's interim President Mansour has promised a full Judicial Inquiry into the incident. Although I think that today's incident does need to be fully investigated and any member of the military found to be acting improperly needs to feel the full force of military justice I can see the Judicial Inquiry approach being highly problematic. Done properly Judicial Inquiry's can last for years if not decades and this one especially is likely to get bogged down in complex legal detail and become politicised by all sides. That will significantly delay the formation of a government of national unity and a transition to democratic rule which really needs to be Egypt's number 1 political priority right now. Therefore because President Mansour is also a Judge he could instead conduct his own inquiry behind the scenes.
After making my previous post on the subject I learnt that President Mansour had nominated Ziad Bahaa el-Din the leader of Egypt's centre-left Social Democratic Party (SDP) as interim Prime Minister with Mohamed ElBaradei acting as his deputy. Although el-Din is clearly an accomplished politician in his own right he lacks the vast international experience of ElBaradei who seems to be the natural choice for interim Prime Minister. Therefore the nomination of el-Din appears to be a concession to the Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafist al-Nour party who are deeply opposed to ElBaradei. Although it's not ideal this is a compromise I would be able to support in order to get things moving. However in response to today's events the al-Nour party have withdrawn from the political process meaning their agreement is no longer required in the formation of a government of national unity.
15:40 on 9/7/13.
Edited at around 22:30 on 9/7/13 to add:
I've been thinking long and heard about how to avoid a repeat of today's incident at the Republican Guard HQ. The first obvious solution is to move Mohamed Morsi to a military base in the middle of nowhere in order to avoid the potential flashpoint in the centre of Cairo. The second option is for the military to physically contain the Muslim Brotherhood's demonstration within Nasr city. That is because while I think they most certainly have the right to protest and am encouraging them to bring up those protests as part of the government of national unity they most certainly do not have the right the disrupt the day to day running of Egypt by running riot, destroying buildings and attacking members of the military and civilians. However as it is unlikely that the Brotherhood will agree to contain their protest within Nasr city this option creates the potential for lots of new flashpoints as the Brotherhood try and force their way past the military cordon.
Within the UK and no doubt within Egypt a minority of people have asked why the military have yet to release Mohamed Morsi. The reason for this is quite simple. The chain of events that led to the confrontation outside the Republican Guard HQ was started by Mohamed Morsi's son Osama Morsi giving a passionate and aggressive address to the Muslim Brotherhood protest in Nasr city. Imagine how much worse the situation would be if Morsi himself were free to incite the Brotherhood to violence in person. As for the continued closure of Islamist TV stations including Al-Jazeera's Mabasher Misr today several members of staff at Al-Jazeera's HQ in Qatar have resigned their positions. Their reason for leaving is that senior management at the channel were forcing them to compromise their journalistic integrity by broadcasting biased reports in support of the Muslim Brotherhood.
In the last hour or so Egypt's interim President Mansour has laid out a timetable for fresh elections. Obviously details are still beginning to emerge and Al-Jazeera aren't bothering to report on it at all. However the plan seems to be that a panel to amend/re-write the constitution is to be appointed within 15 days. As Egypt has already moved into Tuesday this gives a deadline of July 24th 2013 (24/7/13). When the constitution has been amended and ratified by public referendum fresh elections will be held with a provisional date set for February 2014. However based on the progress of the last constitutional panel I wouldn't consider that February date to be set in stone.
While I obviously support any attempts to get Egypt back to democratic civilian rule as quickly as possible I personally think that setting a deadline for the formation of a government of national unity would be a more useful priority. The announcement of this timetable appears to be a somewhat panicked response by Mansour and the military to the confrontation at the Republican Guard HQ. The fact that they panicking only serves to underline the fact that they most certainly did not intend for that to happen.
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