Egypt's Continuing Revolution: Month 13, Week 4, Day 4.

I am still working on my analysis of Egypt's new interim government of national unity. Turning into something of a mammoth task this is now not likely to be ready until tomorrow, Sunday (21/7/13).

In the meantime though yesterday (19/7/13) the Muslim Brotherhood held their "The Second Crossing" day of protest amid much tension, heightened security and the fear of serious violence. In the end though it turned out to be something of a damp squib. The main reason for this is that according to international sources (the only available sources) the Brotherhood's national call out only managed to attract a maximum of 20,000 demonstrators to Cairo. As a result they weren't able to march on their designated targets of government and military buildings and international Embassies or block roads or railway lines in large enough numbers to cause the security forces any major problems.

There were though some small incidents of violence. The first of these occurred at the al-Azhar Mosque before midday prayers and before the official start of the Brotherhood's demonstrations. Brotherhood protesters gathered in the yard of the Mosque calling for the US to support Mohamed Morsi and condemn what they consider to be a coup. Local residents then attacked the Brotherhood demonstrators with stones and bottles forcing them out of the Mosque. Security forces intervened to keep the two groups separate amid reports of limited gunfire although there have been no reports of death of serious injury. The second incident occurred when Brotherhood protesters marched on the Presidential Palace. Fearing they were getting to close to the buildings perimeter the army fired tear-gas and the demonstrators dispersed. Again no fatalities or serious injuries have been reported.

A much more serious incident occurred in the city of Mansoura which is around 120km (75miles) north of Cairo on the Nile delta. What appears to have happened is that an all female protest under the banner of "Women Against the Coup Movement" were marching towards the Agriculture Directorate building when they were attacked by men armed with knives/swords, clubs and according to some witnesses firearms. In the ensuing chaos at three women were killed and at least one remains in a critical condition in hospital. Egypt's public prosecutor has launched an immediate investigation into the deaths and I fully support that investigation.

In the meantime though the Muslim Brotherhood have claimed that this attack was carried out by members of Mubarak's now disbanded National Democratic Party (NDP) aided by members of the military. Therefore it is entirely possible that the Brotherhood have moved on from provoking the military into attacking their demonstrations to simply attacking their own demonstrations in order to portray themselves as victims of oppression. However it is also possible that this is a sign of how deeply unpopular the Muslim Brotherhood and their protests have become amongst Egypt's general population with people now taking matters into their own hands to limit the disruption to everyday life that the Brotherhood are causing. Quite apart from the fact that I think killing someone for expressing a political view is entirely wrong I think that members of the public should refrain from attacking Brotherhood demonstrators because it is exactly the sort of thing that will garner them sympathy and support helping to drag the protests and the disruption they cause out for much longer.

Also on Friday the Egyptian military began it's big operation against terrorists in the Sinai. However so far nothing much of note has happened. So I should explain that while this is a large operation and there will be fatalities the military's intention is not simply to kill terrorists. Instead they intend to separate them from the civilian population, capture their supplies and cut-off their re-supply routes. Therefore most of the early part of the operation is going to involve setting up check-points and gathering intelligence so when the military does finally come to confront the terrorists they will be able to do so in a way that minimises the risk of civilian casualties. Apart from counter-balancing the Brotherhood's "Second Crossing" protest the military operation appears to have been begun on the anniversary of the 1973 war with Israel in order to put the issue of the peace-treaty that war led to on the agenda for US Secretary of State John Kerry's meetings with Palestinian and Israeli leaders.

Late on Friday evening Kerry announced that those meetings had resulted in the resumption of peace talks between the unelected and Saudi backed Fatah dominated Palestinian Authority and Israel to be held in Washington, US at an unspecified point in the future. Apart from playing to the domestic US audience to make it look like the administration is still a player in the middle-east the US' main aim was to get both parties to Washington so the US can try and get a better understanding of what it is going on in a region where the US hasn't been relevant since the Libya war. Both Israel and Fatah's main motivation seems to be to strengthen Fatah's standing at the expense of the elected Hamas party. Although it is not the Egyptian military's intent Israel especially is hoping the security crack-down in the Sinai will help it achieve that end.

Finally in what is actually something of a side-note on Friday the UK suspended licenses for the export of radio and communication equipment along with spare parts for heavy machine guns and tanks to Egypt on the grounds they may be used against protesters. However the UK is continuing to allow the export of equipment such as assault rifles, combat shotguns and acoustic riot control devices (stun grenades) which are much more likely to be used against protesters. Therefore the suspension of these licenses is a clear attempt by the UK to put pressure on the Egyptian military in order to discourage them from stabilising the security situation in the country. The really depressing bit about this is that the Liberal Democrat Business Minister Vince Cable no doubt genuinely thought that by suspending these licenses he was showing solidarity for the people of Gaza by discouraging the Sinai operation.

16:30 on 20/7/13.