In yesterday's post I wrote about how the eastern side of the northern Iraqi city of Mosul had been liberated from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).
Today I'd just like to remind everyone that eastern Mosul has been liberated from ISIL.
The original plan for the liberation of Mosul was to leave the entire western side of the city undefended. The idea being to allow ISIL fighters to mount only a symbolic defence to the city while withdrawing the bulk of their forces to Raqqa - their de facto capital in Syria.
There were a great many flaws to this plan. However one of the most significant relates to this roughly 100km (60 mile) stretch of Syria's border with Turkey. Known as "Garvaghy Road" this stretches between Azaz/Kilis in the west and the Euphrates River in the east. Garvaghy Road functions as the main ISIL supply route between Raqqa and Turkey.
Therefore if ISIL fighters were left to flee Mosul for Raqqa they could just as easily flee Raqqa for Turkey From Turkey those ISIL fighters would then be free to travel to the rest of the World.
Directly to the north of Raqqa and to the east of Garvaghy Road you have this vast 12,000kmsq (7,200 mile) buffer/safe-zone controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) - the most effective anti-ISIL force on the ground in Syria.
It turns out I have got rather bored of writing out; "the vast 12,000kmsq (7,200 mile) buffer/safe-zone controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD)" so I have decided to designate this area as; "Shangri-La" because it sounds a bit Cantonese-y.
Following what I gather was a bad tempered NATO meeting at the end of October 2016 the US attempted to solve the problem of Garvaghy Road by pressuring the SDF to launch an operation against Raqqa. The first phase of this operation was completed on November 25th 2016 (25/11/16) and saw the SDF advance from some 45km (27 miles) south from the town of Ayn Issa to within 25km (15 miles) north of Raqqa.
The second phase of the operation saw the SDF advance south along the banks of the Euphrates River towards Raqqa. This phase was completed on January 16th 2017 (16/1/17) with the SDF having advanced to within 8km (5 miles) of the Tabqa Dam.
Forming Lake Assad out of the Euphrates River the Tabqa Dam sits around 55km (33 miles) west of Raqqa. It forms the main crossing point of the Euphrates linking Raqqa with Garvaghy Road via the H4 Highway and the town of al-Bab.
Unlike in Mosul where the frontlines are clearly defined by roads and neighbourhoods in the area between Shangri-La and Raqqa the frontlines tend to be an invisible line running through the middle of a field. Therefore it seems I owe the SDF an apology.
In estimating the territory liberated on January 14th 2017 (14/1/17) I said that they'd liberated 113 farms and villages within a 1,200kmsq (720 milesq) area. Thus they'd increased the size of Shangri-La to 13,200kmsq (7,920 milesq). That is a significant underestimate of the SDF's achievement.
In fact the SDF had succeeded in liberating 197 farms and villages within a 3,200kmsq (1,920 milesq). This increased the size of Shangri-La to 15,200kmsq (9,120 milesq).
On August 25th 2016 (25/8/16) Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan sent regular Turkish forces to invade and occupy Garvaghy Road. This was done specifically to prevent the SDF liberating the area and cutting off ISIL's supply lines with Turkey. Since November 2016 Erdogan's forces have been attempting to cycle control of al-Bab from ISIL.
As such I think it is fair to conclude that Erdogan very much opposes the SDF liberating Tabqa Dam cutting off the route between Raqqa and al-Bab.
On January 1st 2017 (1/1/17) Erdogan went even further by staging a terror attack against the Reina nightclub in the Turkish city of Istanbul. This was designed to invoke memories the June 12th 2016 (12/6/16) terror attack against the Pulse nightclub in the US city of Orlando. The intention being to call on the US to withdraw its support for the SDF in order to allow Erdogan's forces to invade and occupy Shangri-La.
On January 20th 2017 (20/1/17) Donald Trump replaced Barack Obama as US President.
On January 21st 2017 (21/1/17) the SDF backed by the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) - launched an operation to liberate the town of Suweydiya al-Kabirah. That operation was completed a day later.
Suweydiya al-Kabirah sits around 3km (2 miles) north-west of the Tabqa Dam. It's liberation is seen as vital for control of the Raqqa to Tabqa road which crosses the dam and the liberation of the dam itself. During the course of the operation a member of the SDF's Quinta Brigada international brigade sacrificed their life. He was Paolo Todd from Los Angeles, California.
Also on January 21st (21/1/17) it was reported by local sources that the US had established a new Special Operations Force (SOF) base close to the city of Hasakah within Shangri-La. This has since been denied by the US. However as a general rule when SOF's are involved you don't really believe anything until it has been officially denied. It is the involvement of US SOF's that has made it much harder for me to get accurate information out of the SDF.
Meanwhile Erdogan continues his efforts to annex Garvaghy Road as part of the new Ottoman Empire.
Since the August 25th (25/8/16) invasion Erdogan has focused his efforts on the town of Jarablus which sits on the western border of the Euphrates River. Initially Erdogan sent in Turkish doctors and nurses to establish Turkish hospitals in the town. This was followed by the building of religious schools to teach in the Turkish language.
On January 22nd (22/1/17) Jarablus saw the graduation of a what Erdogan claims is a Syrian police. Numbering some 450 they wear as their cap badges the Turkish flag and at their graduation ceremony proclaim their loyalty to Turkey and Erdogan personally by chanting;
"Long Live Turkey! Long Live Erdogan!"
18:15 on 26/1/17 (UK date).
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