Operation Featherweight: Month 30, Week 3, Day 7.

Since the summer of 2014 the northern Iraqi city of Mosul has been under the occupation of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).

On October 17th 2016 (17/10/16) an operation was launched to liberate the city. This is a combined operation by the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga and the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR). Its first objective was to encircle Mosul from the north, east and south.

The primary motivation behind launching the operation at that time was to ensure lots of positive news coverage ahead of the November 8th 2016 (8/11/16) US election. This was done in an effort to help Hillary Clinton succeed Barack Obama as President. The main part of the plan was to hope that ISIL would simply run away and escape via the west to Syria.

Neither of those things are considered particularly valid when planning a major military operation.

Realising this on November 16th 2016 (16/11/16) the Popular Mobilisation Force (PMF) militia element of the ISF succeeded in liberating Tal Afar airport to the west of Mosul cutting off the western escape route. Despite a major element of the plan being changed no-one saw any need to change the rest of the plan.

On November 1st 2016 (1/11/16) the ISF launched an east to west frontal assault on Mosul starting from the suburb of Gogjali. By November 24th 2016 (24/11/16) the ISF had succeeded in securing 16 neighbourhoods. Their most forward positions arced from the al-Zuhar neighbourhood to the al-Karamah neighbourhood to the north-east and arced from the al-Karamah neighbourhood to the al-Salam neighbourhood to the south-east.

On December 4th 2016 (4/12/16) the ISF launched another push westwards from the al-Salam neighbourhood into the Palestine/Falastin, Qarayat Yarimjah and Judaydah Mufti neighbourhoods. They also launched a simultaneous push on the north side of the M2/Hawler Road from the al-Karamah neighbourhood to the al-Bareed and al-Tameen neighbourhoods.

By December 9th 2016 (9/12/16) the ISF had advanced so they were in at least partial control of 27 of Mosul's western neighbourhoods. To the north of the Hawler Road the ISF controlled neighbourhoods in almost a vertical line from al-Zuhar to al-Tameen. To the south of the Hawler Road the ISF controlled neighbourhoods in an arc from al-Karamah to the Judaydah neighbourhood.

However these gains came at significant cost.

The ISF do not publish their own casualty figures. However the persistent rumour is that those 39 days of fighting 4,000 ISF service personnel gave their lives. That represents 10% of the entire force of 40,000 committed to the operation. The ISF's elite Counter Terrorism Service (CTS/Golden Division) who have been leading the fight were particularly hard hit. They have seen some 20% of their entire force killed in the Mosul operation.

With the Golden Division in particular having sustained so many casualties they could no longer be considered an effective fighting force a tactical pause was declared on December 9th 2016 (9/12/16). This was to allow for replacements of equipment and men - some said to be poorly trained - to be brought in to reinforce the operation.

Due to the slow progress of the operation the US has also been forced to change the mission its Special Operations Forces (SOF) around Mosul from an advisory to a frontline combat one. In turn this has forced them to increase the number of SOF's by 450. In another clear sign of mission creep other members of CJTFOIR  - mainly Britain and France - have also deployed a further 50 SOF's - primarily snipers - in forward positions in Mosul.

I have always maintained that this Mosul operation has been poorly planned and - at primarily the insistence of the Americans - conducted at completely the wrong time. However the December pause has provided a clear demonstration of why now it has begun there is no choice other than to see it through even if it is sucking in an spitting out more personnel than had been expected.

The December pause of course not only allowed the ISF time to re-group it also allowed ISIL to re-group. 

As a result ISIL were able to launch a counter-offensive turning six neighbourhoods - Intisar, Somer, al-Saha, al-Salam, Falastin and al-Quds - from being under complete ISF control back into areas of conflict. The Intisar and al-Quds neighbourhoods were of particular concern because they are far behind what is loosely considered the frontline. Al-Quds in particular is one of Mosul's most eastern neighbourhoods.

On December 22nd 2016 (22/12/16) ISIL were able to shell and launch Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Device (VBIED/Suicide truck bomb) attacks against Gogjali. That is so far to the east it is not technically considered part of Mosul. On December 28th 2016 (28/12/16) ISIL were able to launch fullscale attacks in the areas of Abu Aweza and Tal Afar which are some distance outside of Mosul. Fortunately both of these attacks were quickly repelled.

On December 29th 2016 (29/12/16) the ISF launched a fresh push of their own in the south-east and north-east of the city.

In the south-east the ISF's first priority to was re-establish control over the neighbourhoods they'd lost before pushing on from Intisar and Falastin neighbourhoods into al-Wadha and al-Maliyah. In the north-east the first priority was liberating the villages of al-Sada and al-Tawila on the first day before entering the al-Muhafazan and al-Sukkar neighbourhoods.

On January 6th 2017 (6/1/17) the ISF conducted their first night mission of the operation. This took them across the Khosr River - key tributary to the Tigris River running through the centre of Mosul - and into the Rifaq and al-Muthana neighbourhoods. These border the Nineveh ruins which are considered by many to mark the centre of Mosul.

On Sunday January 8th 2017 (8/1/17) the ISF announced that they had completed their push into the al-Muhafazan and al-Sukkar neighbourhoods and entered the al-Baladiyat neighbourhood. Once all three neighbourhoods have been secured that will establish a forward line along the Hawler Road as it runs north to south alongside the Nineveh Ruins.

To the south-east on January 3rd 2017 (3/1/17) the ISF entered the al-Wadha neighbourhood and began to attack the Baath neighbourhood. On Monday January 9th 2017 (9/1/17) reached the so-called "Fourth Bridge" across the Tigris from the Baath and al-Maliyah neighbourhoods.

Yesterday (10/1/17) it was confirmed that the ISF had reached the Mosul communication and post centre which sits between the M80 Road and the al-Horia roundabout which leads onto the al-Jamhuriya bridge. Today it was announced that the ISF had entered Jonah's Tomb which sits between the al-Maliyah and al-Jazar neighbourhoods.

These latest gains mean that ISIL now only control 9 neighbourhoods or roughly 20% of the territory on Mosul's east or left bank. These include the sparsely populated al-Arabi and Rashidiyah neighbourhoods to the north. As a result we seem to be approaching the point where Mosul's eastern side can be declared liberated.

That of course will still leave Mosul's west or right bank to be liberated. Although geographically smaller than the east of the city the west of Mosul is much older made up of a tightly packed warren of old buildings and narrow streets unsuited to modern warfare. As such the fighting there is likely to be much tougher and take even longer. 

Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi has estimated that the operation will now last until Easter which is in mid-April 2017. That increased delay raises further concerns about the fate of Mosul's civilian population.

The plan was that Mosul's civilians would remain within their homes as the fighting quickly passed them by. With the fighting not progressing as quickly as hoped this plan doesn't seem to be working. In the first five days following the December 29th 2016 (29/12/16) push some 13,000 civilians fled Mosul. That brings the total number of people having fled Mosul to over 130,000 all of whom are currently being housed in poorly equipped Internally Displaced Peoples (IDP) camps amid freezing weather.

I am also growing increasingly concerned about the fate of people living in towns such as Qaryart al-Ashiq between the west of Mosul and Tal Afar. As far back as November 2016 there were growing concerns that civilians in this area were beginning to run out of essential supplies. Based on current estimates and strategy they will likely be the last civilians liberated from ISIL after Mosul itself is liberated. Five months or more is a very long time to expect them to wait for relief.

Obviously ISIL have not taken their recent losses in Mosul in good grace. Since the start of the December 29th 2016 (29/12/16) push they have responded with an intense bombing campaign centred around the Iraqi capital Baghdad - some 400km (240 miles) to the south. January 2nd 2017 (2/1/17) was a particularly brutal day.

On Saturday December 31st 2016 (31/12/16) French President Francois Hollande announced that he would be visiting Iraq on Monday January 2nd 2017 (2/1/17) to congratulate the nation on the progress it had made improving security. The public nature of this announcement gave ISIL two days to plan attacks to prove Hollande wrong.

On the morning of January 2nd 2017 (2/1/17) ISIL detonated a total of six car bombs at markets in and around Baghdad predominately focused on the overwhelmingly Shia Sadr City. Then in the evening ISIL launched bomb and gun attacks against two police stations in the city of Samarra - some 115km (70 miles) north of Baghdad.

The nature of these attacks seemed inspired by the opening episode ("The Six Thatchers") of the fourth season of the BBC TV Show "Sherlock" which was first broadcast on Sunday January 1st 2017 (1/1/17). The began with the telling of the old folk story "The Appointment in Samarra." As with all folk stories there are various version of this tale but the all serve as an allegory about fate.

A merchant is busy in a market in Baghdad when he sees the figure of death. Although death looks surprised to see him the merchant immediately flees Baghdad for Samarra. That evening in Samarra the merchant is again faced with death. This time he accepts his fate but asks death why he seemed surprised to see him in Baghdad that morning.

Death replies; "Because I had an appointment with you this evening in Samarra."

Sherlock is one of the BBC's big exports. So not only was this episode broadcast in the UK on January 1st it was also broadcast across Europe - including Russia - at the same time. As a result it was trending globally on Twitter that evening - only in Russian. That would certainly hint at a thaw in relations between the UK and Russia.

Just this Sunday (8/1/17) there was another bombing in the Sadr City district of Baghdad. This time it targeted the Jamila market. I think that counts as close enough to "Jamala" singer of the controversial 2016 Eurovision Song Contest entry "1944."

So it seems that ISIL is growing increasingly concerned about the division between Russia and the west on which the group depends. It must be extremely frustrating for them to have all these complex conversations going on above their heads.

As with the wave of attacks that was triggered by the start of the Mosul operation back in October 2016 the main objective of this latest ferocious wave of attacks is to undermine faith in the Iraqi government. Ideally ISIL are looking to bring down that government so it can no longer fight them. Failing that it is trying to force the Iraqi government to withdraw forces from the Mosul operation to protect Baghdad to reduce the pressure on ISIL in Mosul.

Unfortunately this tactic seems to be having some effect. 

Following the latest bomb attacks on Monday (9/1/17) mass protests were held in Baghdad calling for better security in the capital. The Iraqi police broke up these protests using tear gas. There now seems to be protests growing elsewhere in Iraq over the way the police broke up the Baghdad protests.

Sadly the latest waves of attacks in Baghdad serve to highlight that the war against ISIL in Iraq will not be won with the liberation of ISIL. The group still need to be defeated in areas such as the Hawija Triangle between Tikrit and Kirkuk and their sleeper cells still need to be dismantled.

Fortunately the Iraqi government seem to be fully aware of this problem. 

On Friday January 6th 2017 (6/1/17) they launched an operation in and around Anbar province's border with Syria. Centred around the town Qaim this is intended to stop ISIL from smuggling fighters and predominately VBEID's such as those seen in Baghdad into Iraq from Syria.

So far this operation seems to be making good progress with the ISF backed by Sunni tribal forces liberating parts of Sagra and Zawiya and advancing on Fhemi valley which is seen as a key cross-border smuggling route. 

17:45 on 11/1/17 (UK date).