Since October 2016 a combined Iraqi Security Force (ISF) and Iraqi Peshmerga force have been trying to liberate the northern Iraqi city of Mosul from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).
In my post last Wednesday (18/1/17) I said that the ISF were on the brink of fully liberating the eastern side of the city - the so-called Left Bank.
The ISF had succeeded in liberating all of the city up to the M80 Motorway which run parallel to the Tigris River up to the junction with the University Highway Road. This included three of the five bridges that cross the Tigris into western Mosul. This left ISIL in control of just the barely populated Ghabat neighbourhood which sits beyond the junction and the al-Arabi and Rashidiyah neighbourhoods at the very north of the eastern side of the city.
On Thursday (19/1/17) the ISF then confused everyone by moving to liberate the town of Tel Skuf. Technically not considered part of Mosul itself this sits around 11km (6.5 miles) north of the al-Arabi neighbourhood. The operation to liberate Tel Skuf was completed by the end of Thursday (19/1/17).
Liberating Tel Skuf is of course and essential part of liberating Mosul. In fact if the ISF had declared eastern Mosul liberated without liberating Tel Skuf I would have corrected them and instructed them to liberate the town. However suddenly diverting attention to a town outside of Mosul rather than the outstanding neighbourhoods did alter the momentum of the operation meaning the liberation of those neighbourhoods was delayed.
They weren't though delayed for long. On Sunday (22/1/16) the ISF succeeded in liberating the al-Arabi neighbourhood. This left ISIL unable to defend the Ghabat neighbourhood which was liberated soon after along with the two remaining bridges. On Monday (23/1/17) the ISF succeeded in liberating the Rashidiyah neighbourhood.
Yesterday (24/1/17) Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi declared that eastern Mosul had been fully liberated.
Although the combat phase of operations in eastern Mosul is complete the ISF still need to conduct a consolidation phase in which they search the area to make sure it is truly free of ISIL fighters and any booby traps they may have left behind.
The fact that this phase has not yet being completed led to some of the problems we've seen yesterday and today. Essentially one or two ISIL fighters who've been hiding in buildings have suddenly emerged and started shooting. Although one or two fighters represent no real military threat while this is going on the street that building is on certainly doesn't seem liberated.
Even before the consolidation phase is completed the ISF can start planning the best way to approach liberating the western side of Mosul. This obviously puts me in a difficult position. After all I don't want to give ISIL an advantage by telling them what to expect.
The original plan for the liberation of Mosul of course focused on leaving the entire western side of the city undefended. The thinking being that this would allow ISIL slip back to Raqqa - their de facto capital in Syria - while only mounting a symbolic defence of Mosul.
The Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) who are a coalition of militias operating as part of the ISF almost immediately saw the flaw in this plan. By November 16th 2016 (16/11/16) they'd moved into positions at Tel Afar airport some 60km (35 miles) to the west of Mosul along the H47 Highway. The PMF are now keen to mount an assault on Tel Afar proper and Mosul from the west. This is certainly an option.
However throughout this operation has been hampered by Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Fearing a loss of Turkish influence in a part of Iraq he hopes to annex as part of a new Ottoman Empire Erdogan has long opposed any PMF role within the liberation of either Tel Afar or Mosul. Turkey maintains a military presence at the Bashiqa camp just to the north-east of Mosul and has amassed forces on the Turkish side of the border which Erdogan has threatened to use to prevent a PMF liberation of Tel Afar let alone Mosul.
Perhaps more importantly though the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) - has said that the operation to liberate the eastern part of Mosul has witnessed some of the toughest street fighting they have ever seen. Being even more densely packed with narrow, warren like streets fighting to liberate western Mosul is likely to be even tougher.
In that type of situation careful coordination between the forces on the ground is essential. Ideally what you want is a single force made up of highly disciplined troops with a clear chain of command all answerable to a single overall commander.
Therefore I would much prefer to see the PMF cede their positions to the west of Mosul to the ISF. This would allow the ISF to conduct the operation within Mosul while the PMF provide perimeter security in much the same way as the Peshmerga have done in eastern Mosul.
However I am aware that the ISF have sustained significant casualties in liberating eastern Mosul. Also while they work to liberate western Mosul the ISF will have to maintain a large deployment to maintain security in the east of the city. That is on top of having to maintain security across the rest of Iraq including in Anbar province where fighting continues around Qaim.
Plus although there is some time to pause and plan the next phase of the Mosul operation that is likely to only be a short window. I am not sure that the ISF will have enough time to redeploy a sizable force to the west of Mosul. Not least because they will have to fight their way through Tel Afar in order to even get to western Mosul.
Therefore as an absolute last resort I am happy for the PMF to participate in the Mosul operation. However they must do so under the command of the ISF possibly even with ISF commanders being embedded with units on the ground.
17:55 on 25/1/17 (UK date).
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