Operation Featherweight: Month 30, Week 2, Day 6.

This should be read as a direct continuation of; http://watchitdie.blogspot.co.uk/2017/01/operation-featherweight-month-30-week-2.html

In that post I explauned how Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan staged a gun attack on the Reina nightclub in Istanbul to issue threats both to Russia and to Europe; Give Erdogan exactly what he wants or face the consequences.

As to what Erdogan wants it's pretty obvious;

In the long term he wants to establish a new Ottoman Empire.

In the short term he wants to invade and occupy both the vast 12,000kmsq (7.200 milesq) buffer/safe-zone established by the Syrian Defence Forces (SDF) east of the Euphrates River. Erdogan also wants to occupy the SDF controlled area centred around the north-western Syrian city of Afrin known as; "The Afrin Canton."

In the immediate term Erdogan wants to use both his regular and irregular forces located at al-Bab to attack SDF positions at Manbij which sits around 50km (30 miles) north-east of al-Bab and around 30km (18 miles) west of the Euphrates. Al-Bab itself sits around 45km (30 miles) north-east of Aleppo City.

The key problem with Erdogan's plan is that amongst the SDF's ranks at Manbij there are certainly US Special Operations Forces (SOF's) and there are rumoured to be SOF's from other nations such as the UK, France and Canada. There is also the SDF's Quinta Brigada international brigade made up of foreign nationals from many different nations.

Just today it's been confirmed that a British member of the Quinta Brigada was killed on December 21st (21/12/16). He was Ryan Lock aged 20 from Chichester in West Sussex. He was killed near the town of Jaeber some 60km (35miles) west of Raqqa - the de facto capital in Syria of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).

"Quinta Brigada" is simply Spanish for "15th Brigade." It refers to a brigade of Irish volunteers that fought for the Republican forces against the Nationalist forces of the Fascist Franco during the Spanish Civil War of 1936 to 1939. The song "Viva Quinta Brigada (Long Live the 15th Brigade)" is a famous one amongst Irish Republicans who've been allied with the Kurds certainly since the 1970's.

On June 12th 2016 (12/6/16) an Islamist terrorist gun attack was carried out at the Pulse gay Nightclub in Orlando, Florida. This resulted in the murder of 49 people many of whom were of Hispanic heritage.

Those wishing to see Hillary Clinton win the November 2016 Presidential election saw this as just a perfectly normal part of her campaign. Refusing to acknowledge that it had been an Islamist terror attack Hillary Clinton supporters instead tried to blame it all on racist, homophobic Donald Trump and the Republicans opposition to gun control.

The broadcaster CNN obviously joined in with this effort broadcasting and Tweeting out a roll call of the names and ages of the dead. The song Viva Quinta Brigada also features the names and ages of members of the brigade who were killed during the Spanish Civil War. So I took to using the song as a way to mock Hillary Clinton and her supporters.

The nature of the Reina nightclub attack was almost exactly the same as the Pulse nightclub attack.

Although the Turkish authorities are taking their sweet time in confirming the identity of the Reina attacker he is believed to be from one of the central Asians nations known as; "The Stans." These include Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan etc.

Omar Mateen who carried out the Pulse nightclub attack was originally from Afghanistan. He was chosen because within Afghan society he would be considered not an Afghan but as a member of the Pushtu ethnic group. Uzbeks, Turks, Tajiks are also large ethnic groups within Afghanistan.

By recreating the Pulse nightclub attack Erdogan seemed to be ordering the US and others to get the Quinta Brigada to lay down their arms and surrender. That would allow Erdogan's forces to march into Manbij and beyond unopposed.

Erdogan may well have thought this would work because outgoing US President Barack Obama has seemed more than happy to do his bidding when it comes to the SDF.

On November 6th 2016 (6/11/16) under pressure from the US the SDF began an operation to liberate Raqqa. The SDF have neither the manpower nor the equipment to successfully liberate Raqqa. Therefore the only conclusion is that this is a suicide mission intended to weaken them to the point that their buffer/safe-zone west of the Euphrates will collapse allowing Erdogan to march in unopposed.

It was as part of this Raqqa operation that Ryan Lock made his sacrifice. Hopefully we won't have to chalk off more names as we chalk off the days.

As with the burning alive of two Turkish Gendarmes of December 22nd 2016 (22/12/16) the spectacle of Turkey suffering an ISIL atrocity makes it hard to oppose Erdogan and his plans.

The situation around al-Bab has been particularly tense of late. The US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) - had been declining to provide Erdogan's forces in the area with air support.

On December 29th 2016 (29/12/16) Russia stepped in to provide air support to Erdogan's forces. The first time that Russia has provided combat support to a NATO member. In response on December 30th 2016 (30/12/16) CJTFOIR started providing air support to Erdogan's forces. Due to the pressure caused by the Reina attack on January 1st 2017 (1/1/17) Russia was once again forced to provide air support to Erdogan's forces.

In response to the Reina attack Erdogan has not yet deployed more regular forces to al-Bab. However forces including armoured vehicles and heavy artillery pieces have been deployed to the border. Erdogan is no doubt hoping they will be able to cross into al-Bab overnight.

Also in the last few hours Erdogan's forces have begun shelling SDF positions at Manbij. Given the pressures the SDF are under the details are still sketchy but initial reports suggest 3 civilians killed and 14 injured.

Although Erdogan is clearly intent on getting his money's worth the Reina nightclub attack was yesterday claimed by ISIL. However it doesn't really matter who the attack is officially blamed on because Erdogan has spent at least a year and a half whipping the Turkish people up into a frenzied state where they're convinced the entire world is out to get them.

So in Erdogan's world rather than fighting each other the Syrian government, ISIL and the SDF are all secretly allied with each other. They are all also secret allies with a number of Turkish groups such as the the Revolutionary People's Liberation Party/Front (DHKP-C) and the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) which Erdogan claims is the military wing of the People's Democratic Party (HDP).

All of these groups are all controlled by Fethullah Gulen who is the head of what Erdogan refers to as the; "Fethullah Terrorist Organisation (FETO)." Fethullah Gulen is of course a front for America's Zionist Central Intelligence Agency (CIA).

I'm pretty sure that Erdogan knows that he is simply lying to the Turkish people to get what he wants. However if he does actually believe these things then he is displaying very serious symptoms of paranoid psychosis and should be in hospital for his own safety.

Obviously if any Turkish newspaper or broadcaster dares to challenge Erdogan's statements they will immediately be labelled as part of FETO their offices shutdown and their staff arrested, exiled or worse.

In an effort to blame the Reina attack - particularly the Saudi victims - on the US much is being made of a warning the US Embassy in Istanbul issued on - I think - October 22nd 2016 (22/10/16). Although I haven't seen it for myself this seems to be the type of generalised threat warning that are common in the security industry.

Rather stating the obvious it pointed out that there are elements within Turkey looking to launch attacks against western citizens and symbols of the west. As a nightclub serving alcohol to foreigners the Reina nightclub had been identified as a potential target. Therefore it's recommended they take additional precautions. The police guard being one such precaution.

That is of course very different from a specific threat warning telling them to expect an attack by a lone gunman at 01:10 on January 1st.

Obviously if you shut down every nightclub because of every generalised threat warning then it kind of means that the terrorists have won.

In fact it was quite a common tactic during the Northern Irish Troubles to call in a specific threat causing a concert, sporting event etc. That would lead to it being shut down and evacuated amid much disruption without the terrorists having to go to the trouble of actually carrying out an attack.

The 1997 Grand National horse race being a prime example.

18:30 on 3/1/17 (UK date).