Operation Featherweight: Month 30, Week 4, Day 5.

On December 12th 2016 (12/12/16) the northern Syrian city of Aleppo was liberated from the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition. In the wake of that liberation Russia convened talks on the Syria conflict between Syria, Turkey, the Army of Conquest and Iran in Astana, Kazakhstan for December 27th 2016 (27/12/16).

However under pressure those talks were moved forward to December 20th 2016 (20/12/16) and would now take place in Moscow, Russia. They were immediately proceeded by the assassination of the Russian Ambassador to Turkey in Ankara and the Berlin terror attack. Both of which took place on December 19th 2016 (19/12/16).

Although the Moscow talks were initially unsuccessful they did lay the ground work for a partial ceasefire for Syria which was declared on December 29th 2016 (29/12/16). In declaring this ceasefire it was made clear that it would not apply to; "Terrorist Groups." However it far made clear who was considered a terrorist group.

Previous ceasefires had defined both the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and Al Qaeda/the Base's Syrian affiliate the Jabhat al-Nusra/the Support Front (ANF) as  terrorist groups. However at the insistence of Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan this latest ceasefire also seemed to include the anti-ISIL Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) as a terrorist group. It made no mention of the groups that fight alongside Al Qaeda within the Army of Conquest.

This ceasefire agreement was supposed to form the basis for further negotiations scheduled for January 27th 2017 (27/1/17) in Astana, Kazakhstan. However under pressure from Erdogan those negotiations have now been brought forward to January 23rd 2017 (23/1/17) - just three days after the inauguration of Donald Trump as the next US President. Having succeeded in getting the negotiations moved forward Erdogan has now insisted that the US be invited and Russia have agreed.

Today a cargo plane - TK6491 - belonging to the 49% Chinese owned Turkish carrier MyCargo crashed into a village in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan destroying 15 houses and killing at least 37.

Being an air crash this obviously references the loss of Russian Military Tupolev Tu-154B RA-85572 over the Black Sea on December 25th 2016 (25/12/16).

At the time I said the death aboard that flight of Yelizaveta Glinka M.D (AKA; "Dr Liza") referenced specific military developments in Syria. Those were the fate of the Tishrin Dam and the Tabqa Dam which span the Euphrates River north of ISIL's de facto Syrian capital - Raqqa. The Tishrin Dam is where Erdogan wants to attack the SDF if he is able to clear them from Manbij while the Tabqa Dam is where ISIL's supply lines cross the the Euphrates River linking Raqqa with al-Bab and by extension Turkey via the H4 Highway.

With it being a cargo or supply plane lost today it is clear that Erdogan wants the Tabqa Dam supply route kept open. You could almost say that he thinks it would be a tragedy if it was lost.

The plane originated from Hong Kong en route to Istanbul, Turkey. Under the One China policy Hong Kong is of course considered part of China. 

Following the January 1st 2017 terror attack on the Reina nightclub in Istanbul Kyrgyzstan or more accurately the neighbouring Chinese province of Xinjiang is something that Erdogan has seemed very interested in. Particularly as Erdogan keeps mooting Turkish membership of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation as an alternative to membership of the European Union (EU).

Bishkek is actually on the other side of Kyrgyzstan from Xinjiang,  right on the border with Kazakhstan. The aircraft was a Boeing 747 so the US will be included in the crash investigation if nothing else.

Today's drama aside the December 29th (29/12/16) ceasefire has been reasonably successful in keeping things relatively quiet in Syria. The only exception has been around the town of Wadi Barada and the village of Ayn al-Fijeh. These are both located around 10km (6 miles) north-west of Syria's capital Damascus.

As their names suggest both Wadi Barada and Ayn al-Fijeh are home to natural water springs. Together they make up the majority of Damascus' water supply. On December 22nd 2016 (22/12/16) the Army of Conquest which occupy the area poisoned those springs with diesel fuel and destroyed the pumping station. As a result Damascus' civilians have been without clean water for nearly a month.

The situation in Wadi Barada also highlights the fallacy of trying to claim that there is a distinction between Al Qaeda and what is often wrongly referred to as; "moderate rebels." There simply is no distinction. As within the rest of Syria these supposedly moderate groups fight alongside Al Qaeda and other extreme Islamist terror groups as part of the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition.

The largest group within the Army of Conquest is Al Qaeda. However two large, dominant groups within the coalition are the Islamic Movement of the Freemen of the Levant/Harakat Ahrar ash-Sham al-Islamiyya (Ahrar al-Sham) and the United Turkmen Army (UTA).

The fragments of what used to be known as; "The Free Syrian Army (FSA)" that are particularly active around Wadi Barada are the Levant Liberation Army, the Zabandani Hawks Brigade and the al-Hamza Battalion. As with the Nour al-Din al-Zenki Movement/Harakat Nour al-Din al-Zenki who operated in eastern Aleppo City both the al-Hamza Battalion and the Zabandani Hawks Brigade have been supplied with weapons under the US Train & Equip program.

Due to Al Qaeda's leadership role within the Army of Conquest the Syrian government has not considered the December 29th ceasefire to be in effect in Wadi Barada and fighting there has continued. Particularly over the course of the past week Syrian  forces have made significant progress in liberating the area.

On Friday (13/1/17) a deal was reached that would see the Army of Conquest surrender control of Wadi Barada and Ayn al -Fijeh returning them to Syrian control. The local groups such as the Levant Liberation Army, the Zabandani Hawks Brigade and the al-Hamza Battalion have all being complying with this agreement laying down their weapons and leaving.

However the Al Qaeda and Ahrar al-Sham elements have been trying to fight on. Yesterday (15/1/17) Ahrar al-Sham elements shot and killed retired Syrian Brigadier General Ahmad Ghadban as he was leaving the area. 

A longtime resident of Ayn al-Fijeh Brigadier General Ghadban had been a key figure in negotiating the agreement between the Syrian and local forces. The hope was clearly that his death would bring an end to the agreement allowing the Army of Conquest to cling onto control of the area. Possibly by having the Syrian military operation declared a ceasefire violation. 

Modelled on the liberation of Aleppo City the agreement in Wadi Barada will see the Army of Conquest fighters give up their heavy weapons. However they will then be allowed travel some 360km (216 miles) north to the area around Idlib City. That is the area which has been designated; "The Sudetenland."

I will pick things up there tomorrow.

20:10 on 16/1/17 (UK date).