Operation Featherweight: Month 30, Week 2, Day 5.

On the diplomatic front the main event of the past week has been Russia's plans to hold talks on Syria in Astana, Kazakhstan on December 27th 2016 (27/12/16).

In part this date was chosen to coincide with me paying a visit to my lesbian mothers over Christmas. The thinking being that the controversy over my rather unusual family would exert pressure on all parties. However it seemed that it was going to exert too much pressure so Russia was forced to rearrange those talks for December 20th 2016 (20/12/16) in Moscow, Russia.

In protest over having its plans thwarted Russia staged a plane crash in the Black Sea on December 25th 2016 (25/12/16). In the extremely early hours of Sunday (1/1/17) Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan made his latest contribution to the discussion. This took the form of an apparent terrorist gun attack at the Reina nightclub in Istanbul, Turkey.

As with the December 12th 2016 (12/12/16) bombing at the Besiktas Stadium the Reina nightclub is in the Besiktas district of the city on the banks of the Bosporus Strait. So this allowed Erdogan to re-state his threat to Russia; Give Erdogan exactly what he wants or he will close the Bosporus Strait cutting off sea access to and from Russia's Black Sea ports and Syria's Mediterranean ports such as Latakia.

Although the lone gunman in the Reina attack has yet to be formally identified he is rumoured to be from one of the central Asian nations that are sometimes referred to as; "The Stans."

Including Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan these sit between Afghanistan and Russia's southern border. They are all Muslim nations and it almost goes without saying that Turkmenistan has a very large ethnically Turkish population. Many citizens in these nations have gone to fight both for the Taliban and Al Qaeda in Afghanistan and for the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and Al Qaeda in Iraq and Syria.

Due to this detail the attack allowed Erdogan to restate a long-standing threat to Russia; Give Erdogan what he wants or he will send Islamist terrorists to conduct attacks in Russia.

This was a particular problem in the run-up to the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi, Russia which were preceded by not one but two Islamist terrorist bombings in Volgograd in December 2013. It has also been a growing problem in Kazakhstan - the proposed host of the Syria talks - with attacks in 2016 both in Almaty and Aktobe.

As with the Besiktas Stadium attack the Reina nightclub sits on the European side of the Bosporus Strait. Therefore it allowed Erdogan to re-state his threat to Europe: Give Erdogan what he wants or expect terror attacks.

Following the last time that threat was issued with the December 19th 2016 (19/12/16) Berlin, Germany truck attack all European nations had massively increased security for the biggest party night of the year - New Year's Eve.

In London, UK armed police were deployed for the first time on the underground rail network. In Paris, France 10,000 police and soldiers were deployed to the streets. In Madrid, Spain and extra 800 police were drafted in. It seemed that everywhere concrete barriers and sand filled heavy trucks were added to prevent a repeat of the Berlin attack. 

Quite apart from the fact the night provides an environment saturated with soft targets there is a specific reason why a New Year's Eve party was chosen.

Although it falls just a week after western Christmas celebrations New Year's Eve has no religious significance whatsoever. It simply marks the end of one and the start of another under the Gregorian calender as agreed  at the 1917 Paris Conference on Time-Keeping at Sea.

While it is named after Roman Catholic Christian Pope Gregory XIII who introduced it in 1582 the Gregorian calender also has no religious significance. It was simply that advances in astronomy had made it increasingly clear that the existing Julian calender which is fractionally too short was not sufficient for timekeeping. So Pope Gregory XIII - as one of the most powerful men in the World - introduced an improved one.

The Julian calender which was introduced by Roman Emperor Julius Ceaser was itself a replacement after advances in astronomy made it clear that the existing Roman calender was insufficient for accurate timekeeping. The Roman calender itself had been reformed several times before it was replaced.

Although much better than the Julian calender the Gregorian calender is still far from perfect. That's why every four years we have to add a leap day and this year we actually had to add a leap second.

While the Gregorian calender itself is not religious some religious groups do cling on to the Julian calender for religious reasons. The Russian Orthodox Christian Church for example.

For religious purposes Muslims use the Hijri calender. Being 11 days to short this is not particularly useful for timekeeping which is why Ramadan keeps occurring 11 days earlier every year. As a result for official purposes many Muslim nations use the Gregorian calender instead.

Amongst horologists - those who study the measure of time - New Year's Eve 2016 was quite an exciting one. Not only did you have the leap second it also marked the start of the 100th anniversary of Turkey adopting the Gregorian calender over the Julian calender.  It also marked the moment that Saudi Arabia officially stopped using the Hijri calender and adopted the Gregorian calender.

The decision to scrap the Hijri calender in favour or the Gregorian calender has caused quite a lot of controversy amongst Saudi Arabia's religious clerics. Not only is it named after a Catholic Pope the Salafist or Whabbist perversion of Islam that Saudi Arabia is built on teaches that claiming the Earth orbits the Sun is sinful and haram.

The main reason why Saudi Arabia has adopted the Gregorian calender is purely economic. By adopting a longer calender Saudis are being forced to work an extra 11 days a year without any extra pay. That certainly helps with the Kingdom's current austerity program.

That Saudi Arabia has been forced to drop its commitment to the perversion of Islam that both he and ISIL believe in for economic reasons is a major concern for Erdogan. After all if he ever does follow through on his threats to fight absolutely everyone Saudi Arabia can't afford to back him up.

Of the 39 people killed in the Reina attack 28 of them were foreign nationals. Of those 28 foreign nationals 7 of them were Saudis - by far the largest group. After an attack like this a bridge of communication is established between the government of the nation where the attack took place and the governments of the nations the victims are from to discuss things like repatriation of the dead. It seems that Erdogan is extremely keen to be talking to Saudi Arabia.

The timing of the attack is also interesting. It occurred at  roughly 01:10 local time.

This is one hour ahead of Central European Time (CET). Although parties tend to slowly wind down and people still need to get home the peak of any New Year's Eve party is 00:00. So from a security perspective although the job isn't over from midnight onwards you can start seeing the light at the end of the tunnel. The fact that the Reina attack occurred at 00:10 CET meant that it occurred too late to be a critical threat to much of Europe.

However Britain is currently on Greenwich Meantime (GMT) which is one hour behind CET. So from a UK perspective the Reina attack occurred at 23:10 meaning that it dramatically raised the tension over the 50 minutes remaining until midnight. As such it seemed to be a specific threat to Britain.

Over this past week Britain has been unusually supportive of me. The reason for this is really twofold;

Firstly due to pressure from Erdogan Britain is not officially allowed to speak to groups like the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the Syrian government or Hezbollah. For its own reasons it is prevented from speaking to Iran or Russia. I though can. So in a war that has created some odd alliances I've sort of become British intelligence's man in Syria.

Also using my domestic situation - particularly the security issue - within Syria negotiations actually puts Britain in a very difficult positions. That's because ultimately being responsible for my - as a British resident - safety and security they know that any failing could have a direct and dramatic impact on the negotiations. However not being party to those negotiations they have no way of knowing what that impact will be. Having been put in a similar situation during the Iran nuclear negotiations I found that a little amusing.

In talking about my security situation on Thursday (29/12/16) I said we were close to the point of the British Special Air Service (SAS) providing a protection detail for my home and my father while I was away visit my mothers.

That description comes from an old Irish rebel song called; "My Old Man's a Provo." It's about how the police and army have surrounded this child's house over Christmas in the hope of capturing his father whose in the Provisional Irish Republican Army (PIRA). Being a cheeky song at one point the father appears down the chimney dressed as Santa Clause.

It was initially - or you could say; "Provisionally" - reported that the Reina attacker had been dressed as Santa Claus.

Also Istanbul had put on extra police officers to provide security for New Year's Eve. Bizarrely some of these police officers were disguised as Santa Claus. So the initial report that the attacker had been dressed as Santa Claus and the fact that a police officer had been killed posed the obvious question of whether the attacker had in fact been one of Erdogan's police officers.

With one of Erdogan's police officers assassinating the Russian Ambassador Andrey Karlov on December 19th (19/12/16) whether you see a distinction between Erdogan and ISIL is obviously a very important question within current Russian/Turkish relations.

At around 18:45 I'll have to pick this up later. Ironically I actually seem to have picked up a cold.