Since October 17th (17/10/16) an operation has been underway to move forces into position in and around the city of Mosul. From those advanced positions those forces will then be able to plan and then undertake an operation to liberate this northern Iraqi city from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).
Those combined Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga and Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) have been advancing on Mosul from three directions; The north, the east and the south.
Progress has been the most rapid to the east. On Monday (24/10/16) the Peshmerga entered the town of Top Zawa which sits just 8km (5 miles) from Mosul. This is as far as the Peshmerga will advance towards Mosul from the east. On Tuesday (25/10/16) the ISF element on the front entered the town of Bazwaia which sits just 2km (1 mile) from Mosul. On Wednesday (26/10/16) it was reported that the ISF's elite Counter Terrorism Unit (CTU/Golden Division) has started mounting raids inside of Gogjali. This is a district inside of Mosul itself.
As such it is fair to say that all the objectives in this phase of the operation to the east of Mosul have been achieved and that phase of the operation is now at an end. All that is left for troops there to do is establish defensive positions, rest and regroup and prepare for the next phase of the operation.
Progress to the north has been almost as rapid. In my post on Thursday (27/10/16) I said that the Peshmerga were in the process of securing the village of Faziliya which sits 15km (9 miles) north-east of Mosul. About an hour after I wrote that the Peshmerga confirmed that they had succeeded in securing Faziliya. Since then they have secured a number of other villages in and around the town of Bashiqa & Bahzani.
However across the front there remain roughly 10 locations that are merely strong-pointed rather than fully secured. These include the town of Bashiqa & Bahzani itself. The Peshmerga have said that they have no intention of fully securing that town before the operation against Mosul itself begins. This concerns me for a number of reasons.
When the operation against Mosul itself begins the ISIL fighters that remain in in Bashiqa are unlikely to sit there quietly and let it happen. Instead they're likely to use the town as a base to launch attacks against the supply lines running to the Mosul battle. Bashiqa & Bahzani is going to have to be fully secured at some point. It makes more sense to fight that battle now rather than when the Peshmerga/ISF are also trying to fight the battle inside Mosul.
Also alongside the ISIL fighters there are a number of civilians trapped inside Bashiqa & Bahzani. Just yesterday the United Nations (UN) confirmed that ISIL had massacred at total of 230 civilians in and around the town of Hamman al-Alil to the south of Mosul. My concern is that once the operation against Mosul itself starts ISIL could massacre the civilians still inside Bashiqa & Bahzani in one of the acts of gruesome revenge we've come to expect from the group.
Although civilians remain inside Bashiqa & Bahzani many fled the advance of ISIL and are currently living as Internally Displaced People (IDP) in camps across Iraq. The operation against Mosul is likely to create as many as a million more of these IDP's. If Bashiqa & Bahzani and the surrounding villages are properly secured prior to the operation against Mosul it may be possible for people to start returning to their homes creating space in the IDP camps for new arrivals.
In the two days since my last post on the subject the most dramatic advances have occurred on what it termed the "Qayyarah Front" to the south-west of Mosul. Although the most advanced position on this front remains the town of Al-Fishkah which sits 13km (8 miles) south-west of Mosul the ISF have pushed out to secure more than a dozen towns and villages south of Al-Fishkah between the Tigris River and the M1 Motorway. We are now just waiting for them to advance a short distance more to secure the Ayn an-Nasr to Hamman al-Alil line.
With all objectives to the north, east and south now being all but achieved the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) - yesterday declared a two day "Operational Pause" which is likely to be extended. This allows the troops that have been in battle for almost two weeks time to re-group, re-supply and repair any damage to their equipment and vehicles. Crucially it also allows the soldiers time to sleep, eat and maybe even grab a hot shower.
With this operational pause it is clear that we are now entering a new phase of the mission. During this phase it is likely that I will quite quiet. To the point that I'm not even exactly happy to confirm that a new phase has begun. It is also almost impossible for me to tell how long this new phase will last because it is entirely dependent on uncontrollable factors. A possible indicator comes from the fact that yesterday (28/10/16) the Belgian arm of the Doctors Without Borders/Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) confirmed that it is sending a field hospital to aid with the Mosul operation.
The issue of medical treatment has long been a source of irritation to me personally. Although they do the best they can with what they've got compared to the standards of a NATO army such as the British or American the standard of medical care to people fighting ISIL - particularly the Peshmerga - is utterly appalling.
As a result we've long had to put up with people dying of battlefield injuries such as simple bullet wounds that are normally considered completely survivable. With the US having already sent some 5000+ ground troops to Iraq including artillery units I find it hard to believe it's taken until now for someone to think to send a field hospital.
MSF estimate that they will have their field hospital up and running in two weeks time. However it make take them slightly longer than that. After all the key is getting the casualty from the frontline to the hospital as quickly as possible. In Afghanistan the British aim to have a casualty triaged with wounds dressed and IV lines established within 10 minutes and the casualty in hospital within 60 minutes. However they have helicopters that are essentially trauma units with rotor blades.
Today's big development is that the Popular Mobilisation Force (PMF) militias which operate as part of the ISF have opened up a new front to the west of Mosul. This is intended to seal the vast 20,000kmsq (12,000 milesq) "Falls Road" corridor that the US had planned to leave open to allow ISIL to escape west from Mosul into Syria.
The plan is for the PMF to advance from the base in Qayyarah across largely unpopulated desert to the town of Tal Afar which sits roughly 55km (30 miles) west of Mosul along the H47 Highway. Already the PMF are confirmed to have reached the town of Ayn an Nasr which sits around 9km (5 miles) west of Hammam al-Alil and around 60km (35 miles) south-west of Tal Afar. However this rapid advance is continuing as I write.
Ideally I would have liked to have seen this operation to the west conducted in the way the coalition conducted "Operation Desert Sabre" during the 1991 Gulf War. Obviously they attacked Iraqi forces inside of Kuwait but they then also swung a massive arc into south-eastern Iraq cutting off the Iraqis escape. I though appreciate that type of manoeuvre moving hundreds of tanks across hundreds of kilometres/miles of desert in a very short space of time is extremely complicated. Even the US' 1st & 5th Cavalry very nearly didn't manage it on time.
Also I appreciate that the current coalition is not as unified and organised as the coalition during the 1991 Gulf War. Airpower is provided by the US-led CJTFOIR while ground forces are being provided by the Peshmerga who are answerable to the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), the Iraqi Army and Police who are answerable to the Iraqi government in Baghdad and the PMF who sometimes act as a law upon to themselves.
The US has very much been driving this Mosul operation in order to get it underway from the November 8th (8/11/16) Presidential election. In pressuring Baghdad and the KRG are to participate the US has been keen both for the Falls Road to be left open and for the PMF to be kept out of the operation.
Therefore I very much appreciate that in order to launch any sort of operation on the Falls Road the PMF have had to very vocally face down a lot of US opposition. So while it might not be the ideal I was dreaming of I'm sure this operation to the west will be more than sufficient. Provided it goes according to plan.
There is a rumour doing that round that the current operational pause is actually a cover for CJTFOIR to refuse to conduct airstrikes in protest of the PMF's Falls Road operation. From what I've seen the operational pause is tactically valid and while it has been in place no-one has really done anything that requires CJTFOIR airstrikes. After all you don't need a B-52 bomber to dig a trench or drive across the desert.
However knowing what a childish little b*tch Obama can be it is something that I will be keeping an eye and something that I certainly hope is not true.
16:40 on 29/10/16 (UK date).
Saturday, 29 October 2016
Friday, 28 October 2016
So. Refugee Street.
As it has across much of Europe and America in the past year or so the migration/refugee crisis has become an extremely fashionable political football here in the UK.
The cause de jour for liberals wishing to show how caring they are has become the so-called Dubs Amendment (to the 2016 Immigration Bill). Named after its author Alfred Lord Dubs - who himself arrived as a child refugee from Nazi Occupied Czechoslovakia - this obligates the British government to admit and support 3,000 child refugees.
This passed into law in June 2016. However the British government has rather dragged its feet in actually putting the policy into practice.
Matters have been sped up by France's plans to close the so-called "Jungle" migrant squatters camp in Calais which has been taking place throughout this week.
So after the past 8 days coachloads of refugees have been arriving from France to a Home Office reception centre in South London. Some of the journalists who were there to witness the first arrivals quickly noticed that some of these children were distinctly adult looking. So more journalists turned up along with first pro-refugee protesters and then anti-refugee protesters along with lots more journalists to cover the protests.
The thing is this reception centre is about a kilometre/mile from my house. From that reception centre the refugees were transferred to a local accommodation centre. That accommodation centre isn't so much within walking distance of my house as between my house and places I would normally walk to. The pub for example.
Where I live has been the main port of call in the UK for Asylum Seekers/Refugees along with other more conventional immigrants probably since the passing of the 1967 Protocol to the Status of Refugees. In fact the political asylum system is probably the town's main employer. As a result people around here tend to talk about the refugees like you talk about the weather. In the sense that sometimes it's heavy and sometimes it's light. But it's always there.
It must be said though that as I was at the pub on Tuesday (25/10/16) it struck me - probably for the first time - just how many refugees there were.
I think the main reason for this is that normally asylum seekers/refugees (it's where their status is decided) arrive at the accommodation centre from all over the World on their own or at most in twos. As a result they tend to be as baffled by each other and the local population as the local population is by them. Due to the closure of the Calais camp suddenly we've got loads of young men - all certainly under 20 - who've clearly known each other for years. As a result they really stand out as a distinct bloc.
From experience I know that following their initial arrival this very large group will be broken down into smaller groups - often of one - and then dispersed around the country. For this week or so though I think everybody's feeling a bit over loaded and slightly unnerved. Even people who themselves arrived as refugees.
Today my mother came up and we went out to lunch. Due to the influx of refugees - or more specifically the protesters and journalists - we actively avoided going into the town centre.
It may surprise you to learn that basically this was the main topic of conversation.
17:05 on 28/10/16 (UK date).
Edited at around 10:30 on 30/10/16 (UK date) to add;
Seeing as I'm wrapping up local news.
Longterm readers will know that I've long had problems with a Housing Association - Notting Hill Housing Trust (NHHT) - who own and rent out the property directly next to mine with which I share an adjoining wall. They've recently purchased the property directly behind mine and move some Italian tenants in. Obviously they seem to be getting a little bit cocky.
One thing that may be adding to their arrogance is the refugee influx. Although they receive a grant from central government every year my local authority spends £/$150million on just child refugees/asylum seekers. The majority of that money is spent on accommodation costs meaning that the money basically just goes straight into the bank accounts of the NHHT. With them being large donors of the UK Labour Party that does make you wonder just how altruistic the Labour Party's refugee stance actually is.
On Tuesday (25/10/16) and Wednesday (26/10/16) the tenants on the other side of the adjoining wall started playing very loud music. This was so loud that even my father who is deaf was disturbed by it. So we decided that one of us had to knock on their door and ask them to turn it down. This of course is the house that had its front windows smashed in back in 2013 leading to me being arrested and maliciously prosecuted. So my father went.
On reflection I think they rather innocently brought a new stereo system and put the speakers up against the adjoining wall without thinking. However on Wednesday night it wasn't so much the volume as the pressure changes caused by the bass affecting the fluid in my ears. That does not encourage calm decision making. Particularly with the amount their CD skips making it hard to believe someone's actually listening to it to enjoy the music.
The whole thing does rather grate because a large part of the manifesto that the Conservative Party used to win the 2015 General Election included provisions to dismantle housing associations exactly like the NHHT.
Signing their assets over to me would certainly help settle a debt. Shutting them down would simply be in the public good.
Also I've remembered that over dinner my mother mentioned that her local authority have recently been holding a tourist enticing music festival. As part of that she along with my other mother went to see a production of Puccini's "Tosca." We got a good 20 minutes of conversation out of that.
The big talking point being that as a semi-amateur production staged by local people they had great trouble finding a blunt, prop dagger to use during the production. Being unable to find a proper prop dagger they used a blunt ceremonial dagger volunteered by someone whose father had been awarded it during the Second World War. What this person initially failed to mention was that their father was German.
So the direction to the actor went along the lines of; "Don't stab anyone. And for god's sake hide the swastika!"
The point being that rather than being some summit of grand political significance this was just two people who vaguely like each other making small talk over lunch.
Demonstrating though that apparently no detail of my life can be considered too inane I should confirm that on Thursday October 11th (11/10/16) I got a carpenter in to fix the main staircase in my house. As a result I went out to get a new watch battery fitted and finally relented and brought an "Oyster" card. I didn't mention it at the time because frankly at that point I was just trying to come up with excuse not to go home.
In light of this recent round of shed fires I get the impression though that Mr Tayto would like me to mention a TV Show called "The Missing" which is broadcast on BBC1 on Wednesday night's in the prime 9pm slot.
The first season was apparently well received even though I missed it completely. This second season is rather hard to talk about because rather than telling a story it tells different parts of a number of different stories.
I think there's the story of French girl that was abducted in 2004. Then there's the story of a British Army brat who was abducted in Germany in 2006. Then there's the story of the British girl returning to her family in 2014. Finally there's the story of the initial French detective still pursuing the case in modern day Iraqi Kurdistan.
Personally I think this is all just a gimmick to cover up the writers lack of talent. As they can't write a story that will hold your attention for a season they instead tell you little bits of lots of stories in each episode in the hope that by hiding crucial details you won't notice just how thin each story actually is.
The bits set in Iraqi Kurdistan really p*sses me off though. I'm constantly sitting there going;
"The Peshmerga's uniforms, equipment and insignia are all wrong. The current frontlines are nowhere near where they are on the show. And, oh yeah, This is blatantly filmed in Morocco."
Anyway I hope that helped.
11:15 on 30/10/16 (UK date).
Edited again at around 18:30 on 30/10/16 (UK date) to add: Yeah, One more thing.
The NHHT also own another rental property directly to the north-east of my, at this point let's go with; "Compound." This property has a tree in its garden.
Rather demonstrating that they are the parasitic scum of the earth despite hoovering up taxpayers cash to maintain this property the NHHT are singularly failing to maintain it. So this tree has grown to the point where it is damaging one of the structures on the prime development land that I currently possess. It is also damaging structures on the property of one of my neighbours who now finds himself trapped between NHHT rental properties.
So met with a surprising burst of energy my father decided to trim this tree back to the property line. As a result much as I enjoyed lunch with my mother it did deny my the opportunity to get drunk and muck about with a chainsaw.
My mother has one of those decorative wood burning stoves that have become fashionable of late. So with her visiting as we suddenly had lots of logs we did offer if she would like to take the logs. She also allegedly has new Turkish neighbours who after a summer visit to Turkey was apparently instructed - by the mother-in-law - that they should do more to raise their pre-pubescent daughters in the Islamic tradition such as wearing the Hijab. Obviously though I would like the opportunity to warm my hands before making a full issue out of that.
With my mother declining the logs due to black carbon concerns my father has decided to burn the logs within the confines of the compound. Not only did he display absolutely no concern for the fact that neighbours may have had their washing on the line he displayed absolutely no concern for the fact I had my washing on the line.
So in summary;
It turns out my lesbian mother no longer wants my father's wood. Make of that what you will.
18:50 on 30/10/16 (UK date).
The cause de jour for liberals wishing to show how caring they are has become the so-called Dubs Amendment (to the 2016 Immigration Bill). Named after its author Alfred Lord Dubs - who himself arrived as a child refugee from Nazi Occupied Czechoslovakia - this obligates the British government to admit and support 3,000 child refugees.
This passed into law in June 2016. However the British government has rather dragged its feet in actually putting the policy into practice.
Matters have been sped up by France's plans to close the so-called "Jungle" migrant squatters camp in Calais which has been taking place throughout this week.
So after the past 8 days coachloads of refugees have been arriving from France to a Home Office reception centre in South London. Some of the journalists who were there to witness the first arrivals quickly noticed that some of these children were distinctly adult looking. So more journalists turned up along with first pro-refugee protesters and then anti-refugee protesters along with lots more journalists to cover the protests.
The thing is this reception centre is about a kilometre/mile from my house. From that reception centre the refugees were transferred to a local accommodation centre. That accommodation centre isn't so much within walking distance of my house as between my house and places I would normally walk to. The pub for example.
Where I live has been the main port of call in the UK for Asylum Seekers/Refugees along with other more conventional immigrants probably since the passing of the 1967 Protocol to the Status of Refugees. In fact the political asylum system is probably the town's main employer. As a result people around here tend to talk about the refugees like you talk about the weather. In the sense that sometimes it's heavy and sometimes it's light. But it's always there.
It must be said though that as I was at the pub on Tuesday (25/10/16) it struck me - probably for the first time - just how many refugees there were.
I think the main reason for this is that normally asylum seekers/refugees (it's where their status is decided) arrive at the accommodation centre from all over the World on their own or at most in twos. As a result they tend to be as baffled by each other and the local population as the local population is by them. Due to the closure of the Calais camp suddenly we've got loads of young men - all certainly under 20 - who've clearly known each other for years. As a result they really stand out as a distinct bloc.
From experience I know that following their initial arrival this very large group will be broken down into smaller groups - often of one - and then dispersed around the country. For this week or so though I think everybody's feeling a bit over loaded and slightly unnerved. Even people who themselves arrived as refugees.
Today my mother came up and we went out to lunch. Due to the influx of refugees - or more specifically the protesters and journalists - we actively avoided going into the town centre.
It may surprise you to learn that basically this was the main topic of conversation.
17:05 on 28/10/16 (UK date).
Edited at around 10:30 on 30/10/16 (UK date) to add;
Seeing as I'm wrapping up local news.
Longterm readers will know that I've long had problems with a Housing Association - Notting Hill Housing Trust (NHHT) - who own and rent out the property directly next to mine with which I share an adjoining wall. They've recently purchased the property directly behind mine and move some Italian tenants in. Obviously they seem to be getting a little bit cocky.
One thing that may be adding to their arrogance is the refugee influx. Although they receive a grant from central government every year my local authority spends £/$150million on just child refugees/asylum seekers. The majority of that money is spent on accommodation costs meaning that the money basically just goes straight into the bank accounts of the NHHT. With them being large donors of the UK Labour Party that does make you wonder just how altruistic the Labour Party's refugee stance actually is.
On Tuesday (25/10/16) and Wednesday (26/10/16) the tenants on the other side of the adjoining wall started playing very loud music. This was so loud that even my father who is deaf was disturbed by it. So we decided that one of us had to knock on their door and ask them to turn it down. This of course is the house that had its front windows smashed in back in 2013 leading to me being arrested and maliciously prosecuted. So my father went.
On reflection I think they rather innocently brought a new stereo system and put the speakers up against the adjoining wall without thinking. However on Wednesday night it wasn't so much the volume as the pressure changes caused by the bass affecting the fluid in my ears. That does not encourage calm decision making. Particularly with the amount their CD skips making it hard to believe someone's actually listening to it to enjoy the music.
The whole thing does rather grate because a large part of the manifesto that the Conservative Party used to win the 2015 General Election included provisions to dismantle housing associations exactly like the NHHT.
Signing their assets over to me would certainly help settle a debt. Shutting them down would simply be in the public good.
Also I've remembered that over dinner my mother mentioned that her local authority have recently been holding a tourist enticing music festival. As part of that she along with my other mother went to see a production of Puccini's "Tosca." We got a good 20 minutes of conversation out of that.
The big talking point being that as a semi-amateur production staged by local people they had great trouble finding a blunt, prop dagger to use during the production. Being unable to find a proper prop dagger they used a blunt ceremonial dagger volunteered by someone whose father had been awarded it during the Second World War. What this person initially failed to mention was that their father was German.
So the direction to the actor went along the lines of; "Don't stab anyone. And for god's sake hide the swastika!"
The point being that rather than being some summit of grand political significance this was just two people who vaguely like each other making small talk over lunch.
Demonstrating though that apparently no detail of my life can be considered too inane I should confirm that on Thursday October 11th (11/10/16) I got a carpenter in to fix the main staircase in my house. As a result I went out to get a new watch battery fitted and finally relented and brought an "Oyster" card. I didn't mention it at the time because frankly at that point I was just trying to come up with excuse not to go home.
In light of this recent round of shed fires I get the impression though that Mr Tayto would like me to mention a TV Show called "The Missing" which is broadcast on BBC1 on Wednesday night's in the prime 9pm slot.
The first season was apparently well received even though I missed it completely. This second season is rather hard to talk about because rather than telling a story it tells different parts of a number of different stories.
I think there's the story of French girl that was abducted in 2004. Then there's the story of a British Army brat who was abducted in Germany in 2006. Then there's the story of the British girl returning to her family in 2014. Finally there's the story of the initial French detective still pursuing the case in modern day Iraqi Kurdistan.
Personally I think this is all just a gimmick to cover up the writers lack of talent. As they can't write a story that will hold your attention for a season they instead tell you little bits of lots of stories in each episode in the hope that by hiding crucial details you won't notice just how thin each story actually is.
The bits set in Iraqi Kurdistan really p*sses me off though. I'm constantly sitting there going;
"The Peshmerga's uniforms, equipment and insignia are all wrong. The current frontlines are nowhere near where they are on the show. And, oh yeah, This is blatantly filmed in Morocco."
Anyway I hope that helped.
11:15 on 30/10/16 (UK date).
Edited again at around 18:30 on 30/10/16 (UK date) to add: Yeah, One more thing.
The NHHT also own another rental property directly to the north-east of my, at this point let's go with; "Compound." This property has a tree in its garden.
Rather demonstrating that they are the parasitic scum of the earth despite hoovering up taxpayers cash to maintain this property the NHHT are singularly failing to maintain it. So this tree has grown to the point where it is damaging one of the structures on the prime development land that I currently possess. It is also damaging structures on the property of one of my neighbours who now finds himself trapped between NHHT rental properties.
So met with a surprising burst of energy my father decided to trim this tree back to the property line. As a result much as I enjoyed lunch with my mother it did deny my the opportunity to get drunk and muck about with a chainsaw.
My mother has one of those decorative wood burning stoves that have become fashionable of late. So with her visiting as we suddenly had lots of logs we did offer if she would like to take the logs. She also allegedly has new Turkish neighbours who after a summer visit to Turkey was apparently instructed - by the mother-in-law - that they should do more to raise their pre-pubescent daughters in the Islamic tradition such as wearing the Hijab. Obviously though I would like the opportunity to warm my hands before making a full issue out of that.
With my mother declining the logs due to black carbon concerns my father has decided to burn the logs within the confines of the compound. Not only did he display absolutely no concern for the fact that neighbours may have had their washing on the line he displayed absolutely no concern for the fact I had my washing on the line.
So in summary;
It turns out my lesbian mother no longer wants my father's wood. Make of that what you will.
18:50 on 30/10/16 (UK date).
Thursday, 27 October 2016
Operation Featherweight: Month 28, Week 1, Day 6.
Following my post on Monday (24/10/16) on preparations for an operation to liberate the Iraqi city of Mosul from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) I said I was aiming to provide updates every other day. That of course was three days ago.
The reason for the delay is that no much has been happening. Following the gains over the weekend preparations have settled into something of a planned consolidation phase. This allows all the different forces an opportunity to re-group, re-arm and generally re-organise themselves for the next advance.
I should probably start by giving an update on the situation in Rutba. Despite sitting some 500km (300 miles) south-west of Mosul this is the town in Anbar province that ISIL seized control of on Sunday (23/10/16). This ISIL takeover of Rutba was shortlived though. The Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) regained full control of the town on Tuesday (25/10/16) evening.
However an ISIL presence does continue both in and around Rutba and within Anbar province in general. Just this morning the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) - reported that it had destroyed an ISIL convoy of 10 vehicles on the outskirts of Rutba.
In terms of Mosul itself preparations to move forces into positions ahead of an attempt to liberate the city have continued to the north, the east and the south.
In the north the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga have continued to advance in and around the town of Bashiqa & Bahzani.
Although they have not yet entered and secured that town itself they have been able to enter and secure some of the near-by villages that they surrounded or; "Strong-Pointed" over the weekend. Most notably Tiz Khrab Bchuck and Tiz Khrab Gawra which sit around 12km (7 miles) from Mosul. Today the Peshmerga are reported to be moving into fully secure the village of Faziliya.
To the east on Monday (24/10/16) the Peshmerga entered the town of Top Zawa. Sitting just 8km (5 miles) from Mosul this is as far as the Peshmerga will advance. As a result they have spent the three days since working to completely secure the town and establish defensive positions.
On a front where the Peshmerga and the ISF have been working in combination the ISF have made dramatic progress. Last Thursday (20/10/16) they succeeded in securing the town of Bartella which sits 10km (6 miles) from Mosul.
This seems to have triggered either a collapse or a tactical withdrawal by ISIL on the front. The ISF were then able to rapidly advance to secure the town of Khazna which sits 8km (5 miles) from Mosul and enter the town of Bazwaia which sits 2km (1 mile) from Mosul. Yesterday it was reported that the ISF elite Counter Terrorism Unit (CTU/Golden Brigade) were mounting raids into the Gogjali district of eastern Mosul.
However to the south of the city progress has been dramatically less rapid.
On the Gwer Front to the south-east over the weekend the ISF entered the town of Hamdaniya/Bakhdida which sits just 13km (8 miles) south-east of the gates of Mosul. However they have not yet been able to fully secure the town. They have though been able to secure the town of Balawat which sits 5km (3 miles) south-east of Hamdaniya.
On the Qayyarh Front to the south-west of Mosul things seem to have ground to a complete halt. On the first day of operations (17/10/16) the Peshmerga pushed up from the town of Al-Qayyarh to the town of Hammam al-Aili which sits 8km (5 miles) from Mosul. Since then though there appears to have been absolutely no progress.
Currently the most advanced ISF positions I have confirmed are at the town of Safiyah which sits 10km (6 miles) south of Hammam al-Aili and Abu Fishkah which sits 14km (8 miles) south-west of Hammam al-Aili. Today I'm getting reports that the ISF are now advancing from Safiyah to Hammam al-Aili. Even if they do reach their destination soon that still leaves a vast area south-west of Mosul between the Tigris River and the M1 Motorway down to Abu Fishkah.
There of course remains absolutely no ISF/Peshmerga presence to the west of Mosul as the operation appears to remain committed to this idea of leaving this vast 20,000kmsq (12,000 milesq) corridor - the "Falls Road" - open to allow ISIL to escape back into Syria.
As I've said before what we are currently witnessing is not yet an operation to liberate Mosul. Instead it is an operation to move forces into positions from where they can plan an operation to liberate Mosul.
Even when the Peshmerga have fully secured the Tel Skuf Front around Bashiqa & Bahzani and the ISF have established their secured forward positions on the Qayyarah Front I think it could still be weeks if not a month before the operation to liberate Mosul can begin. Obviously I don't want to go into too much detail but I think that it is fair to say that over the past nearly two weeks of operations we've gained a clearer idea of how ISIL intend to defend Mosul. Once forces are in position the task will be to study those defences in detail in order to identify the weak-points and then attack against those weak-points in order to make ISIL's defences collapse as quickly and painlessly as possible.
Although I'm probably already saying too much as it stands it appears as though the ISF are planning on launching a simple frontal assault of Mosul moving east to west. This plan is almost entirely dependent on ISIL sticking to the deal they've done with the US to only mount a symbolic defence of Mosul before largely escaping to Syria. ISIL of course may back out of that deal at any point and I've heard just the faintest whisper of a rumour that the PMF may be planning a little surprise for them. If that critical part of the plan has changed then the whole plan must change. Even if it hasn't it's a good idea to have a Plan B ready to go in case Plan A fails.
The problem with leaving the Falls Road open of course is that it gives ISIL a route from Mosul up the Euphrates River basin past their de facto capital of Raqqa into an area of northern Syria known as; "Garvaghy Road."
This is the roughly 100km (60 mile) wide are between the Euphrates in the east and the town of Azaz/Kilis in the east which Turkey invaded on August 24th (24/8/16) specifically to protect ISIL's supply lines to and from Turkey from the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Obviously if ISIL fighters can reach Garvaghy Road from Mosul then they can reach Europe and the rest of the World from Turkey.
Since last Monday (17/10/16) ISIL and the allied Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) backed by regular Turkish forces deploying both artillery and air strikes have been trying to expand Garvaghy Road westwards by attacking SDF positions to the south of Azaz.
Having deployed 20 more tanks into the nearby town of Marea on Saturday (22/10/16) Turkey is reported to have deployed some of its Maroon beret Special Forces to the town and has intensified its artillery and air strikes on the SDF. On Tuesday (25/10/16) these attacks included the use of Chemical Weapons against the SDF by Turkish backed forces.
Also on Tuesday (25/10/16) there was an incident that really serves to underline both the complexity and the severity of the situation in Syria.
Turkey has invaded Syria in order to protect ISIL from the SDF who are trying to protect themselves from ISIL. ISIL is also fighting the Syrian government. So on Tuesday (25/10/16) the Syrian government conducted airstrikes against Turkish backed forces killing 4 of them close to the town of Dabiq which is roughly 20km (12 miles) south-east of Azaz and around 8km (5 miles) north-east of Marea.
This takes us dangerously close to a point where the illusion of a proxy-war with groups like ISIL and the Army of Conquest disappears and this becomes an overt war between Turkey as a nation state and Syria as a nation state.
Syria is currently being backed by Russia. If Russia backs Syria in a war against Turkey that raises the question of whether NATO will in turn back Turkey against Russia. However it must be said with this confrontation taking place some 25km (15 miles) inside Syrian territory with Turkey very clearly acting as the aggressor under no interpretation would NATO's Article 5 mutual defence clause apply.
This situation rather neatly brings me on to US Secretary of Defence Ash Carter's recent travels.
Despite Turkey's continued occupation of northern Syria and it's launching on October 17th (17/10/16) of a fresh assault on the US-backed SDF Secretary Carter still went ahead with a visit to Turkey last Friday (21/10/16) to receive his latest orders for the Mosul operation. He then travelled to impose those orders on the Iraqi government on Saturday (22/10/16) and on the Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) on Sunday (23/10/16).
On Tuesday (25/10/16) Secretary Carter decided that it might be an idea to consult some of the US' allies with a CJTFOIR meeting in Paris, France. Yesterday (26/10/16) and today (27/10/16) Secretary Carter has been meeting with his NATO counterparts in Brussels, Belgium.
With Brussels being the scene of the March 22nd (22/3/16) ISIL terror attacks I think it is fair to say that Secretary Carter has experienced some push back against his plan to grant ISIL fighters safe passage from Mosul to Europe via Turkey. In response Secretary Carter has been talking up the prospect of an operation to liberate Raqqa in; "The Coming Weeks."
That time-frame is wildly unrealistic. Long before plans for an operation to liberate Raqqa can be drawn Turkey needs to withdraw its occupation forces from Garvaghy Road. This is something that should have happened on September 6th (6/9/16).
Once Turkish forces have withdrawn the SDF then need to move into secure Garvaghy Road - particularly the town of Al-Bab. Only once that has been achieved can we start thinking about what equipment needs to be supplied to the SDF or what Iraqi forces they can be allied with in order to mount an operation to liberate Raqqa.
Based on the 75 days it took the SDF to liberate the city of Manbij in order to get to the planning stage of a Raqqa operation we're talking about how ever long it takes for Turkey to withdraw its forces plus another five months. However it must be said with Turkish forces withdrawn and proper support from CJTFOIR the SDF's progress from Manbij to Azaz is likely to be much more rapid.
As it stands US President Barack Obama spoke to Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan yesterday and has still not told him that he must withdraw his forces. That is despite Erdogan now being more than 50 days beyond the agreed withdrawal date.
Obama's failure to act is of course extremely frustrating. Due to the security threat to the rest of the World it is debatable whether the Mosul operation can even begin until the SDF have sealed Garvaghy Road.
17:40 on 27/10/16 (UK date).
The reason for the delay is that no much has been happening. Following the gains over the weekend preparations have settled into something of a planned consolidation phase. This allows all the different forces an opportunity to re-group, re-arm and generally re-organise themselves for the next advance.
I should probably start by giving an update on the situation in Rutba. Despite sitting some 500km (300 miles) south-west of Mosul this is the town in Anbar province that ISIL seized control of on Sunday (23/10/16). This ISIL takeover of Rutba was shortlived though. The Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) regained full control of the town on Tuesday (25/10/16) evening.
However an ISIL presence does continue both in and around Rutba and within Anbar province in general. Just this morning the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) - reported that it had destroyed an ISIL convoy of 10 vehicles on the outskirts of Rutba.
In terms of Mosul itself preparations to move forces into positions ahead of an attempt to liberate the city have continued to the north, the east and the south.
In the north the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga have continued to advance in and around the town of Bashiqa & Bahzani.
Although they have not yet entered and secured that town itself they have been able to enter and secure some of the near-by villages that they surrounded or; "Strong-Pointed" over the weekend. Most notably Tiz Khrab Bchuck and Tiz Khrab Gawra which sit around 12km (7 miles) from Mosul. Today the Peshmerga are reported to be moving into fully secure the village of Faziliya.
To the east on Monday (24/10/16) the Peshmerga entered the town of Top Zawa. Sitting just 8km (5 miles) from Mosul this is as far as the Peshmerga will advance. As a result they have spent the three days since working to completely secure the town and establish defensive positions.
On a front where the Peshmerga and the ISF have been working in combination the ISF have made dramatic progress. Last Thursday (20/10/16) they succeeded in securing the town of Bartella which sits 10km (6 miles) from Mosul.
This seems to have triggered either a collapse or a tactical withdrawal by ISIL on the front. The ISF were then able to rapidly advance to secure the town of Khazna which sits 8km (5 miles) from Mosul and enter the town of Bazwaia which sits 2km (1 mile) from Mosul. Yesterday it was reported that the ISF elite Counter Terrorism Unit (CTU/Golden Brigade) were mounting raids into the Gogjali district of eastern Mosul.
However to the south of the city progress has been dramatically less rapid.
On the Gwer Front to the south-east over the weekend the ISF entered the town of Hamdaniya/Bakhdida which sits just 13km (8 miles) south-east of the gates of Mosul. However they have not yet been able to fully secure the town. They have though been able to secure the town of Balawat which sits 5km (3 miles) south-east of Hamdaniya.
On the Qayyarh Front to the south-west of Mosul things seem to have ground to a complete halt. On the first day of operations (17/10/16) the Peshmerga pushed up from the town of Al-Qayyarh to the town of Hammam al-Aili which sits 8km (5 miles) from Mosul. Since then though there appears to have been absolutely no progress.
Currently the most advanced ISF positions I have confirmed are at the town of Safiyah which sits 10km (6 miles) south of Hammam al-Aili and Abu Fishkah which sits 14km (8 miles) south-west of Hammam al-Aili. Today I'm getting reports that the ISF are now advancing from Safiyah to Hammam al-Aili. Even if they do reach their destination soon that still leaves a vast area south-west of Mosul between the Tigris River and the M1 Motorway down to Abu Fishkah.
There of course remains absolutely no ISF/Peshmerga presence to the west of Mosul as the operation appears to remain committed to this idea of leaving this vast 20,000kmsq (12,000 milesq) corridor - the "Falls Road" - open to allow ISIL to escape back into Syria.
As I've said before what we are currently witnessing is not yet an operation to liberate Mosul. Instead it is an operation to move forces into positions from where they can plan an operation to liberate Mosul.
Even when the Peshmerga have fully secured the Tel Skuf Front around Bashiqa & Bahzani and the ISF have established their secured forward positions on the Qayyarah Front I think it could still be weeks if not a month before the operation to liberate Mosul can begin. Obviously I don't want to go into too much detail but I think that it is fair to say that over the past nearly two weeks of operations we've gained a clearer idea of how ISIL intend to defend Mosul. Once forces are in position the task will be to study those defences in detail in order to identify the weak-points and then attack against those weak-points in order to make ISIL's defences collapse as quickly and painlessly as possible.
Although I'm probably already saying too much as it stands it appears as though the ISF are planning on launching a simple frontal assault of Mosul moving east to west. This plan is almost entirely dependent on ISIL sticking to the deal they've done with the US to only mount a symbolic defence of Mosul before largely escaping to Syria. ISIL of course may back out of that deal at any point and I've heard just the faintest whisper of a rumour that the PMF may be planning a little surprise for them. If that critical part of the plan has changed then the whole plan must change. Even if it hasn't it's a good idea to have a Plan B ready to go in case Plan A fails.
The problem with leaving the Falls Road open of course is that it gives ISIL a route from Mosul up the Euphrates River basin past their de facto capital of Raqqa into an area of northern Syria known as; "Garvaghy Road."
This is the roughly 100km (60 mile) wide are between the Euphrates in the east and the town of Azaz/Kilis in the east which Turkey invaded on August 24th (24/8/16) specifically to protect ISIL's supply lines to and from Turkey from the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Obviously if ISIL fighters can reach Garvaghy Road from Mosul then they can reach Europe and the rest of the World from Turkey.
Since last Monday (17/10/16) ISIL and the allied Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) backed by regular Turkish forces deploying both artillery and air strikes have been trying to expand Garvaghy Road westwards by attacking SDF positions to the south of Azaz.
Having deployed 20 more tanks into the nearby town of Marea on Saturday (22/10/16) Turkey is reported to have deployed some of its Maroon beret Special Forces to the town and has intensified its artillery and air strikes on the SDF. On Tuesday (25/10/16) these attacks included the use of Chemical Weapons against the SDF by Turkish backed forces.
Also on Tuesday (25/10/16) there was an incident that really serves to underline both the complexity and the severity of the situation in Syria.
Turkey has invaded Syria in order to protect ISIL from the SDF who are trying to protect themselves from ISIL. ISIL is also fighting the Syrian government. So on Tuesday (25/10/16) the Syrian government conducted airstrikes against Turkish backed forces killing 4 of them close to the town of Dabiq which is roughly 20km (12 miles) south-east of Azaz and around 8km (5 miles) north-east of Marea.
This takes us dangerously close to a point where the illusion of a proxy-war with groups like ISIL and the Army of Conquest disappears and this becomes an overt war between Turkey as a nation state and Syria as a nation state.
Syria is currently being backed by Russia. If Russia backs Syria in a war against Turkey that raises the question of whether NATO will in turn back Turkey against Russia. However it must be said with this confrontation taking place some 25km (15 miles) inside Syrian territory with Turkey very clearly acting as the aggressor under no interpretation would NATO's Article 5 mutual defence clause apply.
This situation rather neatly brings me on to US Secretary of Defence Ash Carter's recent travels.
Despite Turkey's continued occupation of northern Syria and it's launching on October 17th (17/10/16) of a fresh assault on the US-backed SDF Secretary Carter still went ahead with a visit to Turkey last Friday (21/10/16) to receive his latest orders for the Mosul operation. He then travelled to impose those orders on the Iraqi government on Saturday (22/10/16) and on the Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) on Sunday (23/10/16).
On Tuesday (25/10/16) Secretary Carter decided that it might be an idea to consult some of the US' allies with a CJTFOIR meeting in Paris, France. Yesterday (26/10/16) and today (27/10/16) Secretary Carter has been meeting with his NATO counterparts in Brussels, Belgium.
With Brussels being the scene of the March 22nd (22/3/16) ISIL terror attacks I think it is fair to say that Secretary Carter has experienced some push back against his plan to grant ISIL fighters safe passage from Mosul to Europe via Turkey. In response Secretary Carter has been talking up the prospect of an operation to liberate Raqqa in; "The Coming Weeks."
That time-frame is wildly unrealistic. Long before plans for an operation to liberate Raqqa can be drawn Turkey needs to withdraw its occupation forces from Garvaghy Road. This is something that should have happened on September 6th (6/9/16).
Once Turkish forces have withdrawn the SDF then need to move into secure Garvaghy Road - particularly the town of Al-Bab. Only once that has been achieved can we start thinking about what equipment needs to be supplied to the SDF or what Iraqi forces they can be allied with in order to mount an operation to liberate Raqqa.
Based on the 75 days it took the SDF to liberate the city of Manbij in order to get to the planning stage of a Raqqa operation we're talking about how ever long it takes for Turkey to withdraw its forces plus another five months. However it must be said with Turkish forces withdrawn and proper support from CJTFOIR the SDF's progress from Manbij to Azaz is likely to be much more rapid.
As it stands US President Barack Obama spoke to Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan yesterday and has still not told him that he must withdraw his forces. That is despite Erdogan now being more than 50 days beyond the agreed withdrawal date.
Obama's failure to act is of course extremely frustrating. Due to the security threat to the rest of the World it is debatable whether the Mosul operation can even begin until the SDF have sealed Garvaghy Road.
17:40 on 27/10/16 (UK date).
Monday, 24 October 2016
Operation Featherweight: Month 28, Week 1, Day 3.
In the two days since my last post preparations have continued for a possible future operation to liberate the northern Iraqi city of Mosul from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).
I should probably start with ISIL's attack on Friday (21/10/16) on the Iraqi city of Kirkuk. This sits around 150km (90 miles) south-east of Mosul on the north-eastern outskirts of an ISIL occupied area known as the Hawija Triangle.
Pretty much as I was finishing my post on Friday (21/10/16) night the ISIL attack was coming to an end. It was amongst the messages I received on Saturday (22/10/16) morning - roughly lunchtime local time - that it was confirmed that the last of the roughly 50 ISIL fighters had been dislodged from the last offensive position they held in the city.
Immediately after the attack the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga who are currently responsible for security in Kirkuk pressed home their advantage. Over the course of Saturday (22/10/16) and Sunday (23/10/16) they successfully rounded up the remaining 50 or so members of the ISIL support cell that had been active in Kirkuk.
This included the cell's leader Mazin Nazhan Ahmed Abdullah al-Obeidi al-Riashi (AKA: "Abu Islam Ansari") who was actually captured by local residents in Kirkuk before being handed over injured to the Peshmerga. Under questioning al-Riashi confirmed that the attack had indeed originated within the Hawija Triangle and the ISIL cell had been able to infiltrate Kirkuk through a gap in the Khurmatu Front between the villages of Daquq and Bashir.
Unfortunately the reason why the Peshmerga were able to uncover and then neutralise al-Riashi's cell so quickly is that they were informed about it in an intelligence briefing from the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) on October 6th (6/10/16). However the US refused to allow the Peshmerga to act on that intelligence instead ordering them to concentrate on the current preparations for an operation to liberate Mosul.
During the course of efforts to repel the ISIL attack on Kirkuk the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) - conducted an airstrike on Daquq that killed 15 women civilians and injuring 50 more. To make matters worse the civilians killed in this airstrikes were all pilgrims visiting a Shia-Muslim shrine. Through its support for groups like ISIL the US is fast getting a reputation as an anti-Shia extremist group.
It seems to me that this airstrike was simply one of the mistakes that happens in the fog of war. In the frantic rush to repel the attack on Kirkuk the group was identified from the air as a column of ISIL fighters moving towards Kirkuk. The group was then struck before they could be properly identified as civilians.
The problem is that if the US admits that it makes mistakes then it also has to admit that the Syrian and Russian airforces also can make mistakes and tone down its rhetoric accordingly. So rather than simply admitting a mistake was made CJTFOIR is continuing to deny that it carried out the airstrike rather raising the question of what airforce that has so far previously been unknown to operate over Iraq carried out the airstrike.
To me that seems to be a very dangerous game. It immediately triggers speculation that the airstrike was carried out semi-deliberately by the Turkish airforce which has been operating independently of CJTFOIR and without the permission of the Iraqi government over northern Iraq since June of 2015. It's through its association with Turkey that the US is getting a reputation as an anti-Shia extremist group.
On Saturday (22/10/16) it was announced that combined ISF/Peshmerga forces had advanced on the Gwer Front south of Mosul to liberate the town of Hamdaniya/Bakhdida from ISIL. This sits just 13km (8 miles) south-east of the gates of Mosul. Unfortunately on Sunday (23/10/16) it was again announced that combined ISF/Peshmerga forces had liberated Hamdaniya/Bakhdida from ISIL. This suggests to me that they lost control of the town overnight and then had to regain it the following day.
This has been something of a persistent problem - particularly on the Gwer Front. It is also something that does not bode well for any operation to liberate Mosul itself. If the ISF/Peshmerga can't see these ISIL counter-attacks coming across the barren, open desert and prepare for them they are going to find it almost impossible to predict and respond to them amid the narrow urban streets and hidden tunnels of Mosul itself. That leaves me concerned that casualties from the operation to liberate Mosul itself are going to be extremely high.
There is also mounting evidence that a failure to properly prepare for any impending operation to liberate Mosul is going to take an unnecessarily high toll on the civilian population. The United Nations High Commission for Human Rights (UNHCHR) is currently investigating an incident that occurred on the Gwer Front in recent days.
Having declared a village liberated the ISF/Peshmerga forces then allowed civilians to return within a matter of hours. ISIL then counter-attacked the village massacring 40 families of these returning civilians. The UNHCHR are not at this time confirming the location of this massacre but it is believed to be in one of the villages surrounding the town of Balawat which is around 6km (3 miles) south of Hamdaniya/Bakhdida.
Although people are obviously in a rush to return to their homes this problem seems to stem from the US' approach to events in Aleppo City across the border in Syria.
There the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition who occupy east Aleppo City are using the local population as human shields. As you've no doubt seen every time the Syrian government move into try and liberate that part of the city the Army of Conquest point to the suffering of their civilian hostages and demand the Syrian government ends the offensive.
This is totally illegitimate way to behave during a war. The use of civilians as human shields not only constitutes a war crime but may well constitute a crime against humanity. What any armed force should do is exactly what the Syrian governments and their Russian backers are doing: Set up humanitarian corridors to allow civilians to flee areas of conflict and allow them to be cared for in camps for Internally Displaced People (IDP) until the can return once conflict has ended in a particular area.
Unfortunately the US along with other nations and, to their shame, the bodies of the UN have long been trying to legitimise the crimes of the Army of Conquest. This seems to have gone so far that CJTFOIR have failed to put into place proper preparations to protect the civilians of Mosul and the surrounding areas from the inevitable conflict in an effort to pretend that the Army of Conquest's behaviour is in any way legitimate.
As part of their efforts to repel advances to the south of Mosul on Thursday (20/10/16) ISIL set fire to a Sulphur processing plant on the outskirts of al-Qayyarah - around 65km (40 miles) south of Mosul - releasing a huge cloud of Sulphur Dioxide gas.
Although Sulphur is obviously one of the key ingredients in the Chemical Weapon Sulphur Mustard Gas Sulphur Dioxide itself is actually pretty harmless. Commonly used as a preservative for dried fruit its main risk to human health is that it is heavier than Oxygen. So in high enough concentrations Sulphur Dioxide replaces all the Oxygen in a person's lungs causing them to drown in Sulphur Dioxide in much the same way they would drown if their lungs became filled with water.
Rather amusingly on Thursday (20/10/16) the wind was blowing from south to north so by setting this factory ablaze all ISIL initially succeeded in doing was suffocating their own positions in Sulphur Dioxide. However through the course of Friday (21/10/16) the wind changed direction causing the death of at least two civilians in villages around al-Qayyarah.
It has also forced US troops located at Qayyarah Air Base to don HAZMAT suits. The ISF and particularly the Peshmerga still don't have access to this type of protective equipment.
With ISIL demonstrating that they long have/had access to the raw materials needed to manufacture large quantities of Sulphur Mustard Gas there is obviously a growing concern that they could make extensive use of Chemical Weapons in their defence of Mosul. Or in other nations in revenge for the liberation of Mosul.
On Sunday (23/10/16) the Peshmerga continued to advance from on the Tel Skuf Front to the north of Mosul. Specifically they advanced on two directions around Mount Bashiqa on the town of Bashiqa & Bahzani. There are currently conflicting reports as to whether the Peshmerga have succeeded in liberating the town itself.
As they advanced the Peshmerga claimed that the had liberated all the villages on the outskirts of Bashiqa & Bahzani and around the foot of Mount Bashiqa. This is not quite true. Rather than liberating the villages the Peshmerga have instead what is known as "Strong-pointed" them - essentially they've surrounded them with a cordon that is not rigid enough to constitute besieging them.
This is actually quite a common tactic when to you're trying to rapidly overrun an entire nation. Such as the US did when it invaded Iraq back in the 2003. The idea being that rather than trying to defeat every soldier in every little village you rush to take control of all the major cities. Once those are under your control and ideally the head of the nation's military has been captured all the soldiers in all the villages are then given the order to surrender.
The problem is that neither the ISF nor the Peshmerga are an invasion force. Instead they're trying to liberate Mosul from an invasion force. That invasion force - ISIL - is not a conventional army.
So if and when the ISF reach the centre of Mosul and raise their flag in the central square Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is not going to give those ISIL fighters in the outlying villages an order to lay down their arms and be taken prisoner. Instead they're going to keep fighting causing immense trouble behind the forward line as the ISF meets likely stiff resistance as it advances inside of Mosul.
The fact that the ISF/Peshmerga continue to seem intent on rushing headfirst into Mosul rather properly clearing the surrounding areas in advances leaves me concerned that rather than winning the battle the priority is still to generate positive headlines to get Hillary Clinton elected as US President.
The critical element of this plan to have the headline; "MOSUL LIBERATED!" out in time for the November 8th (8/11/16) election remains the decision to leave a vast 20,000kmsq (12,000 milesq) corridor west of Mosul in order to allow ISIL to escape back into Syria - the "Falls Road" as it's sometimes known. Everyday come fresh reports of hundreds of ISIL fighters using the route back into Syria without interference from CJTFOIR.
On Sunday (23/10/16) ISIL were even able to launch an offensive of their own to capture the town of Rutba. Sitting some 285km (170 miles) west of the city of Ramadi which itself was liberated from ISIL back in February 2016 Rutba is so deep into Anbar province it actually sits around 150km (90 miles) south of what is broadly considered the Falls Road.
Like all terrorist groups ISIL is very focused on propaganda. This means that their military operations are often focused not so much on what territory they can seize or even how many people they can kill but on being able to provide a steady stream of GoPro battle videos they can upload to the Internet for their supporters to drool over.
As such I think ISIL's main objective in capturing Rutba is to produce footage of a victory that they can use to counter all the footage of their defeats around Mosul.
However along with Friday's (21/10/16) attack on Kirkuk from the Hawija Triangle the capture of Rutba does demonstrate that whether Mosul is liberated or not ISIL will continue to operated in Iraq.
In fact having done a deal with the US to get Hillary Clinton elected I suspect ISIL are now trying to justify that deal to their supporters by reassuring them that after she has been elected with ISIL's support ISIL will continue with Hillary Clinton's support.
At around 16:45 on 24/10/16 (UK date) I'll pick this up after dinner.
Edited at around 18:40 on 24/10/16 (UK date) to add;
Looking back across the border into Syria it's easy to see why ISIL can imagine a very rosy future under Hillary Clinton.
Where the Euphrates River enters Turkey the Falls Road from Mosul reaches Garvaghy Road. Stretching for 100km (60 miles) from Azaz/Kilis in the west to the Euphrates River in the east this is the area that Turkey invaded on August 24th (24/8/16) and continues the militarily occupy.
Although it was only a thin pretence to begin with Turkey now seems to have dropped any attempt to pretend that the purpose of this invasion was anything other than to protect ISIL and their supply lines into Turkey from the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD).
Last Monday (17/10/16) ISIL and the Army of Conquest backed by Turkish artillery have launched sustained artillery and airstrikes against SDF positions in the villages of Um-Hosh and Um-Qura which sit to the south of Azaz. The purpose of these strikes is to prevent the Sunni-Arab Army of Revolution/Jaish al-Thuwar part of the SDF coalition from dislodging ISIL from positions in and around Marea. That sits around 20km (12 miles) south-east of Azaz and around 10km (6 miles) east of the SDF stronghold of Tall Rifat.
On Saturday (22/10/16) Turkey deployed a further 20 tank units across the border into Syria. These tanks immediately took up position on the outskirts of Marea specifically to prevent the SDF from advancing on ISIL positions around the town. They have then proceeded to fire almost continuously on SDF positions in the town of Sheikh Issa which sits between Marea and Tall Rifat.
Those artillery strikes continue to be accompanied by Turkish airstrikes. Today Turkey has excitedly declared that overnight it has succeeded in killing over 320 members of the SDF. However as always this Turkish claim seems wildly inflated and very far removed from the truth.
Despite Turkey no longer making any attempt to disguise its support for ISIL against the US-backed SDF on Friday (21/10/16) US Secretary of Defence Ash Carter went ahead with an official visit to Turkey.
Rather than securing an end to Turkish support for ISIL Secretary Carter then proceeded to visit the Iraqi capital Baghdad on Saturday (22/10/16) and the Iraqi Kurdish capital Erbil on Sunday (23/10/16) in order to pressure them into allowing Turkey to expand its support for ISIL to the Mosul operation.
For better or worse that US pressure appears to have paid off. When the Peshmerga began Sunday's (23/10/16) operation against Bashiqa & Bahzani they were accompanied by Turkish artillery fire from the Bashiqa military base. That of course is the military base that Turkey built on the ISIL side of the frontline in order to train the militia of the Nujaifi tribe which are not affiliated with either the ISF nor the Peshmerga.
When announcing that the Turkish military had finally succeeded in forcing its way into preperations for a Mosul operation Turkey's Prime Minister declared that the action was being taken at the request of the Peshmerga. That has since been strenuously denied by all Peshmerga commanders on the ground suggesting that the order was in fact given by US Secretary Carter in his meeting with the Kurdistan Regional President Masoud Barzani.
Emboldened by Sunday's decision for them to launch artillery strikes Turkey has today expanded its involvement to include airstrikes. As they have been doing on and off since June 2015 Turkey conducted airstrikes in the Mergesor district of northern Iraq - some 110km (65 miles) north of Mosul. Three civilians were reported killed in these attacks.
Along with the US ISIL themselves have continued to press for more Turkish involvement in any potential operation to liberate Mosul. This morning they launched another attack against the town of Sinjar/Shingal which sits at the base of the infamous Mount Sinjar.
As I mentioned in relation to last Wednesday's (19/10/16) ISIL attack on Sinjar/Shingal in the summer of 2014 it fell to the SDF to cross the border from Syria to rescue some 50,000 Yezidis who were trapped atop of Mount Sinjar. In order to prevent a repeat of that genocide the SDF then helped to organise two defence militia's - the Sinjar Resistance Units (YBS) and the Yezidi Protection Forces (HPE).
As with Wednesday's (19/10/16) attack today's ISIL attack on Sinjar seems intended to draw both the YBS and the HPE into battle. The hope being that these groups connection with the SDF will provide Turkey with all the pre-text it needs to attack Sinjar in order to; "Protect the local Sunni-Arab and Turkmen population from Kurdish terror!"
Within hours of today's attack during a meeting with his French counterpart Jean-Marc Ayrault in Ankara the Turkish Foreign Minister Melvut Cavusoglu declared that Turkey will not allow Sinjar to become another hideout for Kurdish terrorists.
This is while a Turkish newspaper linked to Cavusoglu's Justice & Development Party (AKP) today ran an editorial demanding that Mosul and all of northern Syria including Aleppo City be made parts of Turkey.
20:00 on 24/10/16 (UK date).
I should probably start with ISIL's attack on Friday (21/10/16) on the Iraqi city of Kirkuk. This sits around 150km (90 miles) south-east of Mosul on the north-eastern outskirts of an ISIL occupied area known as the Hawija Triangle.
Pretty much as I was finishing my post on Friday (21/10/16) night the ISIL attack was coming to an end. It was amongst the messages I received on Saturday (22/10/16) morning - roughly lunchtime local time - that it was confirmed that the last of the roughly 50 ISIL fighters had been dislodged from the last offensive position they held in the city.
Immediately after the attack the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga who are currently responsible for security in Kirkuk pressed home their advantage. Over the course of Saturday (22/10/16) and Sunday (23/10/16) they successfully rounded up the remaining 50 or so members of the ISIL support cell that had been active in Kirkuk.
This included the cell's leader Mazin Nazhan Ahmed Abdullah al-Obeidi al-Riashi (AKA: "Abu Islam Ansari") who was actually captured by local residents in Kirkuk before being handed over injured to the Peshmerga. Under questioning al-Riashi confirmed that the attack had indeed originated within the Hawija Triangle and the ISIL cell had been able to infiltrate Kirkuk through a gap in the Khurmatu Front between the villages of Daquq and Bashir.
Unfortunately the reason why the Peshmerga were able to uncover and then neutralise al-Riashi's cell so quickly is that they were informed about it in an intelligence briefing from the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) on October 6th (6/10/16). However the US refused to allow the Peshmerga to act on that intelligence instead ordering them to concentrate on the current preparations for an operation to liberate Mosul.
During the course of efforts to repel the ISIL attack on Kirkuk the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) - conducted an airstrike on Daquq that killed 15 women civilians and injuring 50 more. To make matters worse the civilians killed in this airstrikes were all pilgrims visiting a Shia-Muslim shrine. Through its support for groups like ISIL the US is fast getting a reputation as an anti-Shia extremist group.
It seems to me that this airstrike was simply one of the mistakes that happens in the fog of war. In the frantic rush to repel the attack on Kirkuk the group was identified from the air as a column of ISIL fighters moving towards Kirkuk. The group was then struck before they could be properly identified as civilians.
The problem is that if the US admits that it makes mistakes then it also has to admit that the Syrian and Russian airforces also can make mistakes and tone down its rhetoric accordingly. So rather than simply admitting a mistake was made CJTFOIR is continuing to deny that it carried out the airstrike rather raising the question of what airforce that has so far previously been unknown to operate over Iraq carried out the airstrike.
To me that seems to be a very dangerous game. It immediately triggers speculation that the airstrike was carried out semi-deliberately by the Turkish airforce which has been operating independently of CJTFOIR and without the permission of the Iraqi government over northern Iraq since June of 2015. It's through its association with Turkey that the US is getting a reputation as an anti-Shia extremist group.
On Saturday (22/10/16) it was announced that combined ISF/Peshmerga forces had advanced on the Gwer Front south of Mosul to liberate the town of Hamdaniya/Bakhdida from ISIL. This sits just 13km (8 miles) south-east of the gates of Mosul. Unfortunately on Sunday (23/10/16) it was again announced that combined ISF/Peshmerga forces had liberated Hamdaniya/Bakhdida from ISIL. This suggests to me that they lost control of the town overnight and then had to regain it the following day.
This has been something of a persistent problem - particularly on the Gwer Front. It is also something that does not bode well for any operation to liberate Mosul itself. If the ISF/Peshmerga can't see these ISIL counter-attacks coming across the barren, open desert and prepare for them they are going to find it almost impossible to predict and respond to them amid the narrow urban streets and hidden tunnels of Mosul itself. That leaves me concerned that casualties from the operation to liberate Mosul itself are going to be extremely high.
There is also mounting evidence that a failure to properly prepare for any impending operation to liberate Mosul is going to take an unnecessarily high toll on the civilian population. The United Nations High Commission for Human Rights (UNHCHR) is currently investigating an incident that occurred on the Gwer Front in recent days.
Having declared a village liberated the ISF/Peshmerga forces then allowed civilians to return within a matter of hours. ISIL then counter-attacked the village massacring 40 families of these returning civilians. The UNHCHR are not at this time confirming the location of this massacre but it is believed to be in one of the villages surrounding the town of Balawat which is around 6km (3 miles) south of Hamdaniya/Bakhdida.
Although people are obviously in a rush to return to their homes this problem seems to stem from the US' approach to events in Aleppo City across the border in Syria.
There the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition who occupy east Aleppo City are using the local population as human shields. As you've no doubt seen every time the Syrian government move into try and liberate that part of the city the Army of Conquest point to the suffering of their civilian hostages and demand the Syrian government ends the offensive.
This is totally illegitimate way to behave during a war. The use of civilians as human shields not only constitutes a war crime but may well constitute a crime against humanity. What any armed force should do is exactly what the Syrian governments and their Russian backers are doing: Set up humanitarian corridors to allow civilians to flee areas of conflict and allow them to be cared for in camps for Internally Displaced People (IDP) until the can return once conflict has ended in a particular area.
Unfortunately the US along with other nations and, to their shame, the bodies of the UN have long been trying to legitimise the crimes of the Army of Conquest. This seems to have gone so far that CJTFOIR have failed to put into place proper preparations to protect the civilians of Mosul and the surrounding areas from the inevitable conflict in an effort to pretend that the Army of Conquest's behaviour is in any way legitimate.
As part of their efforts to repel advances to the south of Mosul on Thursday (20/10/16) ISIL set fire to a Sulphur processing plant on the outskirts of al-Qayyarah - around 65km (40 miles) south of Mosul - releasing a huge cloud of Sulphur Dioxide gas.
Although Sulphur is obviously one of the key ingredients in the Chemical Weapon Sulphur Mustard Gas Sulphur Dioxide itself is actually pretty harmless. Commonly used as a preservative for dried fruit its main risk to human health is that it is heavier than Oxygen. So in high enough concentrations Sulphur Dioxide replaces all the Oxygen in a person's lungs causing them to drown in Sulphur Dioxide in much the same way they would drown if their lungs became filled with water.
Rather amusingly on Thursday (20/10/16) the wind was blowing from south to north so by setting this factory ablaze all ISIL initially succeeded in doing was suffocating their own positions in Sulphur Dioxide. However through the course of Friday (21/10/16) the wind changed direction causing the death of at least two civilians in villages around al-Qayyarah.
It has also forced US troops located at Qayyarah Air Base to don HAZMAT suits. The ISF and particularly the Peshmerga still don't have access to this type of protective equipment.
With ISIL demonstrating that they long have/had access to the raw materials needed to manufacture large quantities of Sulphur Mustard Gas there is obviously a growing concern that they could make extensive use of Chemical Weapons in their defence of Mosul. Or in other nations in revenge for the liberation of Mosul.
On Sunday (23/10/16) the Peshmerga continued to advance from on the Tel Skuf Front to the north of Mosul. Specifically they advanced on two directions around Mount Bashiqa on the town of Bashiqa & Bahzani. There are currently conflicting reports as to whether the Peshmerga have succeeded in liberating the town itself.
As they advanced the Peshmerga claimed that the had liberated all the villages on the outskirts of Bashiqa & Bahzani and around the foot of Mount Bashiqa. This is not quite true. Rather than liberating the villages the Peshmerga have instead what is known as "Strong-pointed" them - essentially they've surrounded them with a cordon that is not rigid enough to constitute besieging them.
This is actually quite a common tactic when to you're trying to rapidly overrun an entire nation. Such as the US did when it invaded Iraq back in the 2003. The idea being that rather than trying to defeat every soldier in every little village you rush to take control of all the major cities. Once those are under your control and ideally the head of the nation's military has been captured all the soldiers in all the villages are then given the order to surrender.
The problem is that neither the ISF nor the Peshmerga are an invasion force. Instead they're trying to liberate Mosul from an invasion force. That invasion force - ISIL - is not a conventional army.
So if and when the ISF reach the centre of Mosul and raise their flag in the central square Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is not going to give those ISIL fighters in the outlying villages an order to lay down their arms and be taken prisoner. Instead they're going to keep fighting causing immense trouble behind the forward line as the ISF meets likely stiff resistance as it advances inside of Mosul.
The fact that the ISF/Peshmerga continue to seem intent on rushing headfirst into Mosul rather properly clearing the surrounding areas in advances leaves me concerned that rather than winning the battle the priority is still to generate positive headlines to get Hillary Clinton elected as US President.
The critical element of this plan to have the headline; "MOSUL LIBERATED!" out in time for the November 8th (8/11/16) election remains the decision to leave a vast 20,000kmsq (12,000 milesq) corridor west of Mosul in order to allow ISIL to escape back into Syria - the "Falls Road" as it's sometimes known. Everyday come fresh reports of hundreds of ISIL fighters using the route back into Syria without interference from CJTFOIR.
On Sunday (23/10/16) ISIL were even able to launch an offensive of their own to capture the town of Rutba. Sitting some 285km (170 miles) west of the city of Ramadi which itself was liberated from ISIL back in February 2016 Rutba is so deep into Anbar province it actually sits around 150km (90 miles) south of what is broadly considered the Falls Road.
Like all terrorist groups ISIL is very focused on propaganda. This means that their military operations are often focused not so much on what territory they can seize or even how many people they can kill but on being able to provide a steady stream of GoPro battle videos they can upload to the Internet for their supporters to drool over.
As such I think ISIL's main objective in capturing Rutba is to produce footage of a victory that they can use to counter all the footage of their defeats around Mosul.
However along with Friday's (21/10/16) attack on Kirkuk from the Hawija Triangle the capture of Rutba does demonstrate that whether Mosul is liberated or not ISIL will continue to operated in Iraq.
In fact having done a deal with the US to get Hillary Clinton elected I suspect ISIL are now trying to justify that deal to their supporters by reassuring them that after she has been elected with ISIL's support ISIL will continue with Hillary Clinton's support.
At around 16:45 on 24/10/16 (UK date) I'll pick this up after dinner.
Edited at around 18:40 on 24/10/16 (UK date) to add;
Looking back across the border into Syria it's easy to see why ISIL can imagine a very rosy future under Hillary Clinton.
Where the Euphrates River enters Turkey the Falls Road from Mosul reaches Garvaghy Road. Stretching for 100km (60 miles) from Azaz/Kilis in the west to the Euphrates River in the east this is the area that Turkey invaded on August 24th (24/8/16) and continues the militarily occupy.
Although it was only a thin pretence to begin with Turkey now seems to have dropped any attempt to pretend that the purpose of this invasion was anything other than to protect ISIL and their supply lines into Turkey from the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD).
Last Monday (17/10/16) ISIL and the Army of Conquest backed by Turkish artillery have launched sustained artillery and airstrikes against SDF positions in the villages of Um-Hosh and Um-Qura which sit to the south of Azaz. The purpose of these strikes is to prevent the Sunni-Arab Army of Revolution/Jaish al-Thuwar part of the SDF coalition from dislodging ISIL from positions in and around Marea. That sits around 20km (12 miles) south-east of Azaz and around 10km (6 miles) east of the SDF stronghold of Tall Rifat.
On Saturday (22/10/16) Turkey deployed a further 20 tank units across the border into Syria. These tanks immediately took up position on the outskirts of Marea specifically to prevent the SDF from advancing on ISIL positions around the town. They have then proceeded to fire almost continuously on SDF positions in the town of Sheikh Issa which sits between Marea and Tall Rifat.
Those artillery strikes continue to be accompanied by Turkish airstrikes. Today Turkey has excitedly declared that overnight it has succeeded in killing over 320 members of the SDF. However as always this Turkish claim seems wildly inflated and very far removed from the truth.
Despite Turkey no longer making any attempt to disguise its support for ISIL against the US-backed SDF on Friday (21/10/16) US Secretary of Defence Ash Carter went ahead with an official visit to Turkey.
Rather than securing an end to Turkish support for ISIL Secretary Carter then proceeded to visit the Iraqi capital Baghdad on Saturday (22/10/16) and the Iraqi Kurdish capital Erbil on Sunday (23/10/16) in order to pressure them into allowing Turkey to expand its support for ISIL to the Mosul operation.
For better or worse that US pressure appears to have paid off. When the Peshmerga began Sunday's (23/10/16) operation against Bashiqa & Bahzani they were accompanied by Turkish artillery fire from the Bashiqa military base. That of course is the military base that Turkey built on the ISIL side of the frontline in order to train the militia of the Nujaifi tribe which are not affiliated with either the ISF nor the Peshmerga.
When announcing that the Turkish military had finally succeeded in forcing its way into preperations for a Mosul operation Turkey's Prime Minister declared that the action was being taken at the request of the Peshmerga. That has since been strenuously denied by all Peshmerga commanders on the ground suggesting that the order was in fact given by US Secretary Carter in his meeting with the Kurdistan Regional President Masoud Barzani.
Emboldened by Sunday's decision for them to launch artillery strikes Turkey has today expanded its involvement to include airstrikes. As they have been doing on and off since June 2015 Turkey conducted airstrikes in the Mergesor district of northern Iraq - some 110km (65 miles) north of Mosul. Three civilians were reported killed in these attacks.
Along with the US ISIL themselves have continued to press for more Turkish involvement in any potential operation to liberate Mosul. This morning they launched another attack against the town of Sinjar/Shingal which sits at the base of the infamous Mount Sinjar.
As I mentioned in relation to last Wednesday's (19/10/16) ISIL attack on Sinjar/Shingal in the summer of 2014 it fell to the SDF to cross the border from Syria to rescue some 50,000 Yezidis who were trapped atop of Mount Sinjar. In order to prevent a repeat of that genocide the SDF then helped to organise two defence militia's - the Sinjar Resistance Units (YBS) and the Yezidi Protection Forces (HPE).
As with Wednesday's (19/10/16) attack today's ISIL attack on Sinjar seems intended to draw both the YBS and the HPE into battle. The hope being that these groups connection with the SDF will provide Turkey with all the pre-text it needs to attack Sinjar in order to; "Protect the local Sunni-Arab and Turkmen population from Kurdish terror!"
Within hours of today's attack during a meeting with his French counterpart Jean-Marc Ayrault in Ankara the Turkish Foreign Minister Melvut Cavusoglu declared that Turkey will not allow Sinjar to become another hideout for Kurdish terrorists.
This is while a Turkish newspaper linked to Cavusoglu's Justice & Development Party (AKP) today ran an editorial demanding that Mosul and all of northern Syria including Aleppo City be made parts of Turkey.
20:00 on 24/10/16 (UK date).
Friday, 21 October 2016
Operation Featherweight: Month 27, Week 5, Day 2.
In my post yesterday I took a look at the steps currently underway to prepare for a possible future operation to liberate the northern Iraq city of Mosul from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).
For reasons that are almost impossible for me to explain let alone justify a key part of the current preparations seem to centre around leaving a roughly 20,000kmsq (12,000 milesq) corridor west of Mosul in order to allow ISIL to escape back into Syria. I have decided to name this corridor the; "Falls Road" after the Falls Road in Belfast, Northern Ireland.
When they reach Iraq's border with Syria the Falls Road will carry ISIL's fighters up the Euphrates River into their heartlands including the group's de facto capital - the Syrian city of Raqqa. It is where the Euphrates basin enters Turkey that the Falls Road meets Garvaghy Road.
Garvaghy Road is of course the roughly 100km (60 mile) stretch of Syria's border with Turkey between the Euphrates River to the east and Azaz/Kilis to the west. On August 24th (24/8/16) the Turkish military invaded and then occupied this area with the specific objective of keeping ISIL's supply line between Raqqa and Turkey open. In the 59 days since then this occupation has not come to an end. Instead it has expanded.
On Sunday (16/10/16) it was announced that elements of the Al Qaeda led Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) backed by Turkey had taken over control of the town of Dabiq in Syria from ISIL.
Located around 30km (20 miles) north of Aleppo City and around 20km (12 miles) south-east of Azaz Dabiq was the site of the decisive defeat of the Mamluk Empire in 1516 which saw the Ottoman Empire expand the last Islamist Caliphate across the Middle-East, North Africa (MENA). For this reason ISIL have long promised that Dabiq will be the site of the battle in which the Caliphate defeats the infidels - particularly Shia Muslims.
The reason why the Turkish backed Army of Conquest was so easily able to take control of Dabiq has now become all too apparent.
As with the town of Jarablus on the western banks on the Euphrates which was the first Syrian city Turkey invaded the ISIL fighters have now simply been absorbed into the Army of Conquest. Specifically they will now be fighting for the Army of Conquest under the banner of their Army of Liberation/Jaish al-Tahrir division who are currently based just north of Azaz.
Having established control over Dabiq Turkey is now threatening to cycle control of the town of al-Bab from ISIL to the Army of Conquest in similar fashion.
Sitting roughly 35km (20 miles) north-east of Aleppo City and 40km (25 miles) south-west of Manbij along the M4 Motorway al-Bab is a critical node on ISIL's supply route to and from Turkey. If it remains under ISIL control or Turkey is able to re-brand it as being under Army of Conquest control then it will render the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) control of Manbij irrelevant.
Therefore in order to cut their supply lines which is a non-negotiable pre-requisite to defeating ISIL the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) - will have to back the SDF to take control of al-Bab. Either from ISIL or from the Army of Conquest. Although just as necessary that second option is certainly politically more sensitive.
While awaiting a decision on al-Bab Turkey has being busying itself by launching attacks on the SDF.
From Monday (17/10/16) both ISIL and the Army of Conquest with the support of Turkey have been launching sustained artillery attacks against SDF positions in and around the villages of Um-Hosh and Um-Qura. These sit to the south of Azaz and to the south-west of Dabiq.
Yesterday (20/10/16) those Turkish artillery attacks were expanded to include the civilian towns of Rajo and Jindres which sit around 5km (3 miles) from Turkey's border with Syria around 35km (20 miles) west of Azaz.
They were also expanded to include the civilian city of Qamishili which sits on Syria's border with Turkey some 285km (170 miles) east of the Euphrates River. Qamishili is so far inside the roughly 12,000kmsq (7,200 milesq) buffer/safe-zone* that the SDF has established across northern Syria it is actually closer to Syria's border with Iraq some 100km (60 miles) east.
As far as I can tell at time of writing Turkish artillery attacks against all of those areas continue today. They certainly continue against the civilian areas of Rajo and Jindres.
Turkey's most wanton acts of aggression against the SDF however occurred on Wednesday (19/10/16) night through to Thursday (20/10/16) morning.
Here the Turkish airforce carried out 26 waves of airstrikes against SDF positions both in and around Um-Hosh and Um-Qura and in the Shiekh Maqsood district of Aleppo City. At the very north of Aleppo City the SDF controlled Shiekh Maqsood district sits almost exactly on the fault line between western Aleppo City and Army of Conquest occupied east of Aleppo City.
Turkey has claimed that these airstrikes killed more than 200 members of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK).
The obvious problem with that is that the PKK is a political party based in Turkey. However Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan has taken to referring to any Kurd anywhere in the World as a member of the PKK. Erdogan has also been desperately trying to portray Turkey's People Democratic Party (HDP) as the political wing as the PKK as he tries to grasp all power for himself.
The particular problem with Turkey claiming that it had targeted the PKK with these airstrikes is that the units of the SDF active in and around particularly Um-Hosh and Um-Qura aren't even the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) elements of the SDF coalition. Instead it's the Revolutionary Army/Jaish al-Thuwar elements who Sunni-Arabs and founder members of the Free Syrian Army (FSA).
When the FSA fragmented several years ago many elements of what was always a loose coalition rather than an army joined up with Army of Conquest or ISIL. However Jaish al-Thuwar joined forces with the YPG to form the SDF along with various other FSA fragments and Assyrian and Sunni-Arab tribal forces.
As I'm sure you've heard since roughly September 20th (20/9/16) the Syrian government back by Russia airpower has been conducting an operation to liberate the east of Aleppo City from the Army of Conquest.
Almost from the moment that began many western nations led by the US and France along with, to their shame, official bodies of the United Nations (UN) have been calling for that operation to be halted.
On October 6th (6/10/16) the UN's Special Envoy for Syria Steffan de Mistura offered to personally escort the Army of Conquest from east Aleppo.
Russia took him up on this offer tabling a UN Security Council (UNSC) resolution allowing to the UN to facilitate the withdrawal of the Army of Conquest from Aleppo. Unfortunately three of the UNSC's permanent members - the US, France and the UK - vetoed this resolution on October 8th (8/10/16).
Unperturbed by the US, the UK and France's obstructionism on Monday (17/10/16) Syria and Russia unilaterally declared a humanitarian pause to allow the Army of Conquest to withdraw from east Aleppo City. The Army of Conquest refused.
However yesterday (20/10/16) Syria and Russia extended the humanitarian pause to allow civilians to be evacuated from occupied east Aleppo. The Army of Conquest did not take kindly to this plan launching constant artillery strikes against the three longstanding humanitarian corridors preventing any of their civilian hostages from leaving east Aleppo and wounding three Russian military officers who were coordinating the evacuation in the process.
The northern of these humanitarian corridors which were established in June 2016 runs through the Bustan al-Pasha neighbourhood which sits directly east of the Shiekh Maqsood neighbourhood.
As a result I can't help but think that the Turkish airstrikes on the Shiekh Maqsood neighbourhood that morning were intended to violate the humanitarian pause and give the Army of Conquest an excuse to prevent their hostages escaping. The hope obviously being that as has happened so many times before Turkey's aggression would simply be ignored and everything would be blamed on Russia.
Last night the UN General Assembly (UNGA) held a special session on Aleppo at the request of Canada. At that meeting de Mistura again equated the salvation of the city with it's continued occupation by the Al Qaeda-led Army of Conquest. Nobody mentioned the Army of Conquest's shelling of the humanitarian corridors nor Turkey's airstrikes against civilian areas.
Much as it pains me to say at around 15:30 on 21/10/16 (UK date) it looks as though I'm going to have to put in a Friday night shift.
Edited around 19:05 on 21/10/16 (UK date) to add;
Erdogan's continued Imperial blood-lust is also causing significant problems with the preparations for an operation to liberate Mosul.
On Monday (17/10/16) the slogan; "Mosul, Erbil, Kirkuk: Parts of Turkey" trended globally on Twitter in the style of many other Erdogan inspired hashtags such as; #ErdoganVoiceOfTheOppressed, #MassacreInAleppo, #AleppoIsBurning and #AleppoUnderSiege have done in the past.
The following day (18/10/16) the newspaper of the Turkish Public Workers Union ran as its frontpage an Ottoman-era map showing the Iraqi cities of Mosul, Erbil and Kirkuk to be parts of Turkey.
Fortunately Erdogan's efforts to annex Mosul along with presumably Erbil and Kirkuk were dealt a significant blow on Thursday (21/10/16) when the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga launched their Tel Skuf offensive. The objective of that offensive being to establish a forward line between the town of Badush in the west and the town of Bashiqa some 30km (20 miles) to the east.
Despite being - until yesterday - on the ISIL side of the frontline Bashiqa is where Turkey has established a military base. It is from that base that Turkey has been training a militia under the control of the Sunni-Arab Nujaifi tribe.
In the days of the Ottoman Empire the Nujaifi tribe were the Lords or "Pasha" who ruled over the area around Mosul on behalf of the Ottoman Sultan. The current Turkish backed Nujaifi militia who've taken to referring to themselves as; "The Sunni Nineveh Guard/Hashd al-Watani" are not affiliated with either the Peshmerga or the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF).
It was from the Bashiqa camp that Erdogan had hoped to deploy Turkish troops into preparations for an operation to liberate Mosul. The fact that the Peshmerga have been able to launch and successfully carry out the Tel Skuf offensive demonstrates that Turkish forces are not needed. Sadly though those Turkish forces have still not withdrawn from Iraq and no doubt Erdogan will continue to lobby for them to participate in any operation to liberate Mosul.
Today the Iraqi government has issued an arrest warrant for the head of the Nujaifi tribe - Atheel al-Nujaifi - on a charge of treason by way of acting as an agent of a foreign power. With al-Nujaifi repeatedly calling for a foreign power - namely Turkey - to invade and then militarily occupy northern Iraq that sounds like an entirely reasonable accusation to me.
Unfortunately also today US Secretary of Defence Ash Carter has paid a visit to Turkey.
I personally would have cancelled this visit the moment that Turkey launched its airstrikes against civilian areas in Aleppo and its artillery strikes against civilian areas in Rajo, Jindres and Qamishili in SDF controlled areas of Syria. However Secretary Carter has not only gone ahead with his visit he has used it as an opportunity to re-affirm the US' support for Turkish forces to take part in any operation to liberate Mosul.
Fortunately it will only be a maximum of three months before Secretary Carter is replaced. Ideally by someone who hasn't sworn allegiance to ISIL.
No-one seems to be as keen on Turkish involvement in any future Mosul operation than ISIL themselves.
On Wednesday (19/10/16) ISIL launched a short-lived, surprise attack on the town of Sinjar/Shingal. Sitting around 110km (65miles) west of Mosul Highway H47 you may remember that Sinjar/Shingal is where CJTFOIR's current operation against ISIL began.
Back in August 2014 ISIL swept into the town of Sinjar massacring 5,000 of the predominately Yezidi population as they went. ISIL then proceeded to kidnap upwards of 3,500 Yezidi women and girls as sex slaves before forcing the town's remaining population to flee up Sinjar mountain.
The furious protests that the spectacle of 50,000 people being forced to die of thirst atop of Mount Sinjar generated from the White House press corp soon became so great that US President Barack Obama felt that he could no longer support ISIL - publicly at least. So he authorised US airforces to conduct strictly limited airstrikes in Iraq until such a time as he could re-package ISIL as a brand that would be acceptable to the public.
Despite Obama's pin-prick strikes it largely fell to the Syrian Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) to climb Mount Sinjar and rescue the trapped civilians.
From there the YPG helped organise the local Kurdish, Yezidi and Assyrian population into a series of militias known as the Sinjar Resistance Units (YBS) and the Yezidi Protection Forces (HPE). In November of 2015 the YBS, the HPE and the Peshmerga swept down from Mount Sinjar to liberate the town of Sinjar from ISIL. However then finding themselves rather abandoned by CJTFOIR these forces were then unable to properly secure Sinjar and the surrounding areas.
By launching an attack on Sinjar ISIL seemed to be trying to provoke a counter-attack by the YBS and the HPE. The thinking being that due to these groups association with the SDF this would provide Erdogan with all the pre-text he would need to launch Turkish military strikes against the YBS and the HPE in order to; "Protect the local Sunni population from PKK terror!"
Also the absence of a western flank to this proposed Mosul operation has not gone unnoticed by the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) militia's that are affiliated to the ISF. In recent days they have been pressing for permission to launch an operation to liberate the town of Tal Afar which sits around 50km (30 miles) east of Sinjar and around 65km (40 miles) west of Mosul along H47 in order to cut off ISIL's escape up the Falls Road.
Due to this attack on Sinjar the PMF's case has only being strengthened. Although only around 20 of the PMF's 40 militias are Shia-Arab ISIL's thinking in launching the Sinjar attack is that such a PMF operation will give Erdogan all the pre-text he needs to deploy the Turkish military to; "Protect the local Sunni-Arab population from Shia-Arab terror!"
In a similar vein ISIL have today launched an attack on the city of Kirkuk which sits around 150km (90 miles) south-east of Mosul.
Although it fell under the protection of the Peshmerga in the summer of 2014 Kirkuk is a mixed city. The north-east is predominately Kurdish while the south-west is a mixture of Sunni-Arabs and ethnic Turkmen who are a mixture of Sunnis and Shias. However I should point out that this is not Belfast in the 1970's so prior to Erdogan opening his big mouth no-one has felt the need to build peace walls between the different communities.
By launching today's attack ISIL seem to be trying to demonstrate that the Peshmerga are not capable of protecting Kirkuk's Arab and Turkmen populations as they have been successfully doing for almost three years now. The hope being this would provide Erdogan with all the pre-text he needs to send Turkish military forces to Kirkuk to protect the Sunni-Arab and Turkmen population.
The nature of the attack on Kirkuk is actually quite common in Afghanistan. A small almost commando-style unit infiltrate an city and run around for a few hours shooting things up and generally causing chaos. They then hole up in snipers positions often in high buildings and then try and hold out for a long as possible.
Although it can be frightening for the local population from a military perspective this type of attack is at worst annoying and without any value other than the symbolic. It most certainly does not mean that ISIL are about to overrun Kirkuk.
I would think that if it continues much beyond Saturday (22/10/16) night the ISF's elite Counter Terrorism Force (CTF/Golden Division) can probably have it for breakfast. After all they have been trained by some of the best Special Operations Forces (SOF) NATO has to offer. Many of whom are in the area should the need arises.
I think it is likely that this attack has originated in the area known as the Hawija triangle which sits just south-west of Kirkuk beyond the Khurmatu Front. The ISIL fighters have probably been able to infiltrate Kirkuk either through underground tunnels or by simply slipping across the defensive line under the cover of darkness.
Sadly either way they would have needed at least some help from the local population. However I should point out assistance may not have been either ideological nor voluntary.
The attack seems to have orgininated from the Sunni-Arab/Turkmen neighbourhoods of Kirkuk and began with an attack on a Peshmerga checkpoint leading into the Kurdish districts of the city.
Therefore the intention seems to be to turn both the Peshmerga and the PMF against the Sunni-Arab and Turkmen population in the hope they will get fired up an look for revenge against the collaborators.
To further enrage the PMF the attack seems to have been focused on an oil facility that is currently under construction by an Iranian company where at least 4 Iranian nationals have been killed. A handful of the PMF militias are either directly backed by Iran or by Lebanon's Hezbollah which in turn is backed by Iran.
So ISIL's thinking in launching this attack against Kirkurk is to trigger a backlash that will give Erdogan all the excuse he needs to deploy the Turkish military to; "Protect the local Sunni-Arab and Turkmen population from Shia-Arab/Kurdish Terror!"
Amid all this chaos there has been some good news. Yesterday (20/10/16) I wrote about the combined ISF/Peshmerga push to advance from the Kalak Front to liberate the predominately Assyrian Christian town of Bartella which sits around 8km (5 miles) east of Mosul along the H2 Highway.
Pretty much as I was writing that the ISF/Peshmerga were writing a press statement confirming that they had liberated Bartella. This leaves them with just the town of Bazwaia to liberate before they are effectively at the gates of Mosul and in a position to begin planning an operation to liberate the city itself.
Sadly all this progress does come at a cost.
Although neither the ISF nor the Peshmerga publish casualty lists which ISIL would use for propaganda purposes the strong rumour I've heard is that in the four days up to yesterday (21/10/16) 45 Peshmerga have sacrificed their lives to defeat ISIL while a further 55 have been seriously wounded. When it comes to walking wounded the Peshmerga in particular have a fierce reputation for just carrying on fighting until they drop dead.
Obviously death and injury are to be expected from any war or battle. However I think this is something that I would like to keep at least a vague eye on. After all it would be nice if both the ISF and the Peshmerga had some soldiers left alive at the end on the battle. Otherwise it kind of looks like they've lost.
Also one US serviceman - believed SOF operator - gave their life yesterday as part of the operation on the Tel Skuf front.
21:20 on 21/10/16 (UK date).
*"Safe-Zone" is a technical term carrying with it legal implications for whomever declares it.
For reasons that are almost impossible for me to explain let alone justify a key part of the current preparations seem to centre around leaving a roughly 20,000kmsq (12,000 milesq) corridor west of Mosul in order to allow ISIL to escape back into Syria. I have decided to name this corridor the; "Falls Road" after the Falls Road in Belfast, Northern Ireland.
When they reach Iraq's border with Syria the Falls Road will carry ISIL's fighters up the Euphrates River into their heartlands including the group's de facto capital - the Syrian city of Raqqa. It is where the Euphrates basin enters Turkey that the Falls Road meets Garvaghy Road.
Garvaghy Road is of course the roughly 100km (60 mile) stretch of Syria's border with Turkey between the Euphrates River to the east and Azaz/Kilis to the west. On August 24th (24/8/16) the Turkish military invaded and then occupied this area with the specific objective of keeping ISIL's supply line between Raqqa and Turkey open. In the 59 days since then this occupation has not come to an end. Instead it has expanded.
On Sunday (16/10/16) it was announced that elements of the Al Qaeda led Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) backed by Turkey had taken over control of the town of Dabiq in Syria from ISIL.
Located around 30km (20 miles) north of Aleppo City and around 20km (12 miles) south-east of Azaz Dabiq was the site of the decisive defeat of the Mamluk Empire in 1516 which saw the Ottoman Empire expand the last Islamist Caliphate across the Middle-East, North Africa (MENA). For this reason ISIL have long promised that Dabiq will be the site of the battle in which the Caliphate defeats the infidels - particularly Shia Muslims.
The reason why the Turkish backed Army of Conquest was so easily able to take control of Dabiq has now become all too apparent.
As with the town of Jarablus on the western banks on the Euphrates which was the first Syrian city Turkey invaded the ISIL fighters have now simply been absorbed into the Army of Conquest. Specifically they will now be fighting for the Army of Conquest under the banner of their Army of Liberation/Jaish al-Tahrir division who are currently based just north of Azaz.
Having established control over Dabiq Turkey is now threatening to cycle control of the town of al-Bab from ISIL to the Army of Conquest in similar fashion.
Sitting roughly 35km (20 miles) north-east of Aleppo City and 40km (25 miles) south-west of Manbij along the M4 Motorway al-Bab is a critical node on ISIL's supply route to and from Turkey. If it remains under ISIL control or Turkey is able to re-brand it as being under Army of Conquest control then it will render the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) control of Manbij irrelevant.
Therefore in order to cut their supply lines which is a non-negotiable pre-requisite to defeating ISIL the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) - will have to back the SDF to take control of al-Bab. Either from ISIL or from the Army of Conquest. Although just as necessary that second option is certainly politically more sensitive.
While awaiting a decision on al-Bab Turkey has being busying itself by launching attacks on the SDF.
From Monday (17/10/16) both ISIL and the Army of Conquest with the support of Turkey have been launching sustained artillery attacks against SDF positions in and around the villages of Um-Hosh and Um-Qura. These sit to the south of Azaz and to the south-west of Dabiq.
Yesterday (20/10/16) those Turkish artillery attacks were expanded to include the civilian towns of Rajo and Jindres which sit around 5km (3 miles) from Turkey's border with Syria around 35km (20 miles) west of Azaz.
They were also expanded to include the civilian city of Qamishili which sits on Syria's border with Turkey some 285km (170 miles) east of the Euphrates River. Qamishili is so far inside the roughly 12,000kmsq (7,200 milesq) buffer/safe-zone* that the SDF has established across northern Syria it is actually closer to Syria's border with Iraq some 100km (60 miles) east.
As far as I can tell at time of writing Turkish artillery attacks against all of those areas continue today. They certainly continue against the civilian areas of Rajo and Jindres.
Turkey's most wanton acts of aggression against the SDF however occurred on Wednesday (19/10/16) night through to Thursday (20/10/16) morning.
Here the Turkish airforce carried out 26 waves of airstrikes against SDF positions both in and around Um-Hosh and Um-Qura and in the Shiekh Maqsood district of Aleppo City. At the very north of Aleppo City the SDF controlled Shiekh Maqsood district sits almost exactly on the fault line between western Aleppo City and Army of Conquest occupied east of Aleppo City.
Turkey has claimed that these airstrikes killed more than 200 members of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK).
The obvious problem with that is that the PKK is a political party based in Turkey. However Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan has taken to referring to any Kurd anywhere in the World as a member of the PKK. Erdogan has also been desperately trying to portray Turkey's People Democratic Party (HDP) as the political wing as the PKK as he tries to grasp all power for himself.
The particular problem with Turkey claiming that it had targeted the PKK with these airstrikes is that the units of the SDF active in and around particularly Um-Hosh and Um-Qura aren't even the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) elements of the SDF coalition. Instead it's the Revolutionary Army/Jaish al-Thuwar elements who Sunni-Arabs and founder members of the Free Syrian Army (FSA).
When the FSA fragmented several years ago many elements of what was always a loose coalition rather than an army joined up with Army of Conquest or ISIL. However Jaish al-Thuwar joined forces with the YPG to form the SDF along with various other FSA fragments and Assyrian and Sunni-Arab tribal forces.
As I'm sure you've heard since roughly September 20th (20/9/16) the Syrian government back by Russia airpower has been conducting an operation to liberate the east of Aleppo City from the Army of Conquest.
Almost from the moment that began many western nations led by the US and France along with, to their shame, official bodies of the United Nations (UN) have been calling for that operation to be halted.
On October 6th (6/10/16) the UN's Special Envoy for Syria Steffan de Mistura offered to personally escort the Army of Conquest from east Aleppo.
Russia took him up on this offer tabling a UN Security Council (UNSC) resolution allowing to the UN to facilitate the withdrawal of the Army of Conquest from Aleppo. Unfortunately three of the UNSC's permanent members - the US, France and the UK - vetoed this resolution on October 8th (8/10/16).
Unperturbed by the US, the UK and France's obstructionism on Monday (17/10/16) Syria and Russia unilaterally declared a humanitarian pause to allow the Army of Conquest to withdraw from east Aleppo City. The Army of Conquest refused.
However yesterday (20/10/16) Syria and Russia extended the humanitarian pause to allow civilians to be evacuated from occupied east Aleppo. The Army of Conquest did not take kindly to this plan launching constant artillery strikes against the three longstanding humanitarian corridors preventing any of their civilian hostages from leaving east Aleppo and wounding three Russian military officers who were coordinating the evacuation in the process.
The northern of these humanitarian corridors which were established in June 2016 runs through the Bustan al-Pasha neighbourhood which sits directly east of the Shiekh Maqsood neighbourhood.
As a result I can't help but think that the Turkish airstrikes on the Shiekh Maqsood neighbourhood that morning were intended to violate the humanitarian pause and give the Army of Conquest an excuse to prevent their hostages escaping. The hope obviously being that as has happened so many times before Turkey's aggression would simply be ignored and everything would be blamed on Russia.
Last night the UN General Assembly (UNGA) held a special session on Aleppo at the request of Canada. At that meeting de Mistura again equated the salvation of the city with it's continued occupation by the Al Qaeda-led Army of Conquest. Nobody mentioned the Army of Conquest's shelling of the humanitarian corridors nor Turkey's airstrikes against civilian areas.
Much as it pains me to say at around 15:30 on 21/10/16 (UK date) it looks as though I'm going to have to put in a Friday night shift.
Edited around 19:05 on 21/10/16 (UK date) to add;
Erdogan's continued Imperial blood-lust is also causing significant problems with the preparations for an operation to liberate Mosul.
On Monday (17/10/16) the slogan; "Mosul, Erbil, Kirkuk: Parts of Turkey" trended globally on Twitter in the style of many other Erdogan inspired hashtags such as; #ErdoganVoiceOfTheOppressed, #MassacreInAleppo, #AleppoIsBurning and #AleppoUnderSiege have done in the past.
The following day (18/10/16) the newspaper of the Turkish Public Workers Union ran as its frontpage an Ottoman-era map showing the Iraqi cities of Mosul, Erbil and Kirkuk to be parts of Turkey.
Fortunately Erdogan's efforts to annex Mosul along with presumably Erbil and Kirkuk were dealt a significant blow on Thursday (21/10/16) when the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga launched their Tel Skuf offensive. The objective of that offensive being to establish a forward line between the town of Badush in the west and the town of Bashiqa some 30km (20 miles) to the east.
Despite being - until yesterday - on the ISIL side of the frontline Bashiqa is where Turkey has established a military base. It is from that base that Turkey has been training a militia under the control of the Sunni-Arab Nujaifi tribe.
In the days of the Ottoman Empire the Nujaifi tribe were the Lords or "Pasha" who ruled over the area around Mosul on behalf of the Ottoman Sultan. The current Turkish backed Nujaifi militia who've taken to referring to themselves as; "The Sunni Nineveh Guard/Hashd al-Watani" are not affiliated with either the Peshmerga or the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF).
It was from the Bashiqa camp that Erdogan had hoped to deploy Turkish troops into preparations for an operation to liberate Mosul. The fact that the Peshmerga have been able to launch and successfully carry out the Tel Skuf offensive demonstrates that Turkish forces are not needed. Sadly though those Turkish forces have still not withdrawn from Iraq and no doubt Erdogan will continue to lobby for them to participate in any operation to liberate Mosul.
Today the Iraqi government has issued an arrest warrant for the head of the Nujaifi tribe - Atheel al-Nujaifi - on a charge of treason by way of acting as an agent of a foreign power. With al-Nujaifi repeatedly calling for a foreign power - namely Turkey - to invade and then militarily occupy northern Iraq that sounds like an entirely reasonable accusation to me.
Unfortunately also today US Secretary of Defence Ash Carter has paid a visit to Turkey.
I personally would have cancelled this visit the moment that Turkey launched its airstrikes against civilian areas in Aleppo and its artillery strikes against civilian areas in Rajo, Jindres and Qamishili in SDF controlled areas of Syria. However Secretary Carter has not only gone ahead with his visit he has used it as an opportunity to re-affirm the US' support for Turkish forces to take part in any operation to liberate Mosul.
Fortunately it will only be a maximum of three months before Secretary Carter is replaced. Ideally by someone who hasn't sworn allegiance to ISIL.
No-one seems to be as keen on Turkish involvement in any future Mosul operation than ISIL themselves.
On Wednesday (19/10/16) ISIL launched a short-lived, surprise attack on the town of Sinjar/Shingal. Sitting around 110km (65miles) west of Mosul Highway H47 you may remember that Sinjar/Shingal is where CJTFOIR's current operation against ISIL began.
Back in August 2014 ISIL swept into the town of Sinjar massacring 5,000 of the predominately Yezidi population as they went. ISIL then proceeded to kidnap upwards of 3,500 Yezidi women and girls as sex slaves before forcing the town's remaining population to flee up Sinjar mountain.
The furious protests that the spectacle of 50,000 people being forced to die of thirst atop of Mount Sinjar generated from the White House press corp soon became so great that US President Barack Obama felt that he could no longer support ISIL - publicly at least. So he authorised US airforces to conduct strictly limited airstrikes in Iraq until such a time as he could re-package ISIL as a brand that would be acceptable to the public.
Despite Obama's pin-prick strikes it largely fell to the Syrian Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) to climb Mount Sinjar and rescue the trapped civilians.
From there the YPG helped organise the local Kurdish, Yezidi and Assyrian population into a series of militias known as the Sinjar Resistance Units (YBS) and the Yezidi Protection Forces (HPE). In November of 2015 the YBS, the HPE and the Peshmerga swept down from Mount Sinjar to liberate the town of Sinjar from ISIL. However then finding themselves rather abandoned by CJTFOIR these forces were then unable to properly secure Sinjar and the surrounding areas.
By launching an attack on Sinjar ISIL seemed to be trying to provoke a counter-attack by the YBS and the HPE. The thinking being that due to these groups association with the SDF this would provide Erdogan with all the pre-text he would need to launch Turkish military strikes against the YBS and the HPE in order to; "Protect the local Sunni population from PKK terror!"
Also the absence of a western flank to this proposed Mosul operation has not gone unnoticed by the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) militia's that are affiliated to the ISF. In recent days they have been pressing for permission to launch an operation to liberate the town of Tal Afar which sits around 50km (30 miles) east of Sinjar and around 65km (40 miles) west of Mosul along H47 in order to cut off ISIL's escape up the Falls Road.
Due to this attack on Sinjar the PMF's case has only being strengthened. Although only around 20 of the PMF's 40 militias are Shia-Arab ISIL's thinking in launching the Sinjar attack is that such a PMF operation will give Erdogan all the pre-text he needs to deploy the Turkish military to; "Protect the local Sunni-Arab population from Shia-Arab terror!"
In a similar vein ISIL have today launched an attack on the city of Kirkuk which sits around 150km (90 miles) south-east of Mosul.
Although it fell under the protection of the Peshmerga in the summer of 2014 Kirkuk is a mixed city. The north-east is predominately Kurdish while the south-west is a mixture of Sunni-Arabs and ethnic Turkmen who are a mixture of Sunnis and Shias. However I should point out that this is not Belfast in the 1970's so prior to Erdogan opening his big mouth no-one has felt the need to build peace walls between the different communities.
By launching today's attack ISIL seem to be trying to demonstrate that the Peshmerga are not capable of protecting Kirkuk's Arab and Turkmen populations as they have been successfully doing for almost three years now. The hope being this would provide Erdogan with all the pre-text he needs to send Turkish military forces to Kirkuk to protect the Sunni-Arab and Turkmen population.
The nature of the attack on Kirkuk is actually quite common in Afghanistan. A small almost commando-style unit infiltrate an city and run around for a few hours shooting things up and generally causing chaos. They then hole up in snipers positions often in high buildings and then try and hold out for a long as possible.
Although it can be frightening for the local population from a military perspective this type of attack is at worst annoying and without any value other than the symbolic. It most certainly does not mean that ISIL are about to overrun Kirkuk.
I would think that if it continues much beyond Saturday (22/10/16) night the ISF's elite Counter Terrorism Force (CTF/Golden Division) can probably have it for breakfast. After all they have been trained by some of the best Special Operations Forces (SOF) NATO has to offer. Many of whom are in the area should the need arises.
I think it is likely that this attack has originated in the area known as the Hawija triangle which sits just south-west of Kirkuk beyond the Khurmatu Front. The ISIL fighters have probably been able to infiltrate Kirkuk either through underground tunnels or by simply slipping across the defensive line under the cover of darkness.
Sadly either way they would have needed at least some help from the local population. However I should point out assistance may not have been either ideological nor voluntary.
The attack seems to have orgininated from the Sunni-Arab/Turkmen neighbourhoods of Kirkuk and began with an attack on a Peshmerga checkpoint leading into the Kurdish districts of the city.
Therefore the intention seems to be to turn both the Peshmerga and the PMF against the Sunni-Arab and Turkmen population in the hope they will get fired up an look for revenge against the collaborators.
To further enrage the PMF the attack seems to have been focused on an oil facility that is currently under construction by an Iranian company where at least 4 Iranian nationals have been killed. A handful of the PMF militias are either directly backed by Iran or by Lebanon's Hezbollah which in turn is backed by Iran.
So ISIL's thinking in launching this attack against Kirkurk is to trigger a backlash that will give Erdogan all the excuse he needs to deploy the Turkish military to; "Protect the local Sunni-Arab and Turkmen population from Shia-Arab/Kurdish Terror!"
Amid all this chaos there has been some good news. Yesterday (20/10/16) I wrote about the combined ISF/Peshmerga push to advance from the Kalak Front to liberate the predominately Assyrian Christian town of Bartella which sits around 8km (5 miles) east of Mosul along the H2 Highway.
Pretty much as I was writing that the ISF/Peshmerga were writing a press statement confirming that they had liberated Bartella. This leaves them with just the town of Bazwaia to liberate before they are effectively at the gates of Mosul and in a position to begin planning an operation to liberate the city itself.
Sadly all this progress does come at a cost.
Although neither the ISF nor the Peshmerga publish casualty lists which ISIL would use for propaganda purposes the strong rumour I've heard is that in the four days up to yesterday (21/10/16) 45 Peshmerga have sacrificed their lives to defeat ISIL while a further 55 have been seriously wounded. When it comes to walking wounded the Peshmerga in particular have a fierce reputation for just carrying on fighting until they drop dead.
Obviously death and injury are to be expected from any war or battle. However I think this is something that I would like to keep at least a vague eye on. After all it would be nice if both the ISF and the Peshmerga had some soldiers left alive at the end on the battle. Otherwise it kind of looks like they've lost.
Also one US serviceman - believed SOF operator - gave their life yesterday as part of the operation on the Tel Skuf front.
21:20 on 21/10/16 (UK date).
*"Safe-Zone" is a technical term carrying with it legal implications for whomever declares it.
Thursday, 20 October 2016
Operation Featherweight: Month 27, Week 5, Day 1.
On Monday (17/10/16) the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) and the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga - but primarily the Peshmerga - announced the start of a joint operation to liberate the city of Mosul in northern Iraq. Mosul has functioned as the de facto capital of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) in Iraq since June of 2014.
Since then not much has happened.
As I said at the time this is not an operation to liberate Mosul. Instead it is an operation to get forces into positions from where they can plan and then launch an operation to liberate Mosul. Those forces are being moved into position to the north, east and south of the city.
In the north the Peshmerga are gathering on what is known as the Tel Skuf Front. Tel Skuf being a town some 25km (15 miles) from the outskirts of Mosul. In January through to February 2015 the Peshmerga launched an operation to liberate the Mosul Dam which sits around 35km (20 miles) north-west of Mosul. As part of that operation the Peshmerga removed ISIL from the areas between the Mosul Dam and Tel Skuf.
Today the Peshmerga have advanced in an arc south from Tel Skuf to liberate the towns of Batnay and Tel Kayf in the hope of extending the front to a 30km (20 mile) line between the town of Badush to the west and the town of Bashiqa to the east. As far as I can tell at the time of writing they have succeeded in reaching the town of Batnay which sits around 8km (5 miles) south of Tel Skuf and around 15km (10 miles) north of their objective.
In the east combined ISF/Peshmerga forces are gathering on the Kalak Front. This is essentially where Highway 2 from Erbil to Mosul crosses the Great Zab River - roughly 35km (20 miles) east of Mosul.
On Monday (17/10/16) the advanced to liberate the town of Bartella which sits around 25km (15 miles) west of Kalak along Highway. However I should point out that rather than driving in a convoy along the Highway they are spread out in a line clearing the areas around the Highway as they go. As far as I can tell at the time of writing although they reached Bartella on Monday they have yet to enter the town let alone liberate it.
In the south combined ISF/Peshmerga forces are advancing from two main directions.
The first of these is the Gwer Front which is essentially the northern bank of the Great Zab River some 45km (25 miles) south-east of Mosul along Highway 80. The second of these is Al Qayyarah Air Base some 65km (40 miles) south of Mosul along the Tigris River. It is here that US Special Operations Forces (SOF) and US Marine Corp artillery units are based.
On Monday (17/10/16) the Peshmerga advanced from the Gwer front to the town of Hamman al-Alil some 20km (12 miles) south of Mosul. The idea being that forces from Al Qayyarah will arc around to the west to extend what will become the Hamman al-Alil Front while forces from the Gwer front will advance extending the line to the east.
Unfortunately this already seems to have fallen behind schedule. The Peshmerga reached Hamman al-Alil on Monday (17/10/16) but as far as I can tell at time of writing have not yet entered the town.
The forces advancing from Al-Qayyarah have only succeeded in reaching the town of Al-Baydah which sits on Highway 1 around 25km (15 miles) south-west of Hamman al-Alil. Their control of the area between Al-Baydah and the Tigris River is patchy at best.
Forces advancing along the Gwer Front have been slowed almost to a halt in the Hamdaniya district.
On Monday (17/10/16) the succeeded in liberating the ancient city of Nimrud which sits around 10km (6 miles) north of where the Tigris and Great Zab Rivers meet. Yesterday (19/10/16) they succeeded in forcing ISIL to abandon the town of Kani Harami which sits around 15km (10 miles) north of Nimrud and around 13km (8 miles) south-east of Hamman al-Alil. They are currently battling ISIL for control of the Christian village of Abbas just north or Kani Harami.
What is really slowing down progress is the extensive network of tunnels, bunkers and trenches that ISIL have constructed in and around Mosul. Some of these trenches can be 100ft (30 metres/yards) deep and wide enough to drive fully laden trucks through.
On Monday (17/10/16) the CNN reporter Nick Paton-Walsh got a dramatic introduction to how difficult this type of tunnel warfare can be.
Embedded with Peshmerga forces the convoy Paton-Walsh was travelling in came under attack by an ISIL fighter who'd suddenly popped up from one of these tunnel entrances. With the Peshmerga returning fire the ISIL fighter simply ducked back into the tunnel before popping up at another entrance. When he did this for a third time he found himself surrounded by Peshmerga fighters so detonated a suicide vest. Although one Peshmerga was wounded fortunately none were killed in these attacks.
While the Peshmerga are made of sterner stuff the reaction of Paton-Walsh shows you the sort of panic this type of sudden attack by an unseen enemy popping up from a tunnel can cause.
The problem of course being that for much of the last two months the US and other members of the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) - have been loudly condemning Russia for using bunker-buster type bombs to clear eastern Aleppo City, Syria of this type of tunnel and bunker network.
So rather than admitting that they've been lying for these past two months CJTFOIR is now refusing to use bunker-buster type weapons to clear the tunnel and bunker networks around Mosul jeopardising the entire operation.
Another major concern I have is that in the last couple of days much of the fighting has been described as; "Fierce." Obviously journalists - particularly American ones - have a huge incentive to make everything sound as dramatic as possible. However I have also been hearing this type of comment from military commanders.
ISIL have obviously been trying to defend their positions using small arms fire and Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Devices (VBIED's). However having been following events around Mosul for more than two years now I know that ISIL attacks of this nature on one or another of the various frontlines is almost a weekly occurrence. It is only because the attacks are now being launched defensively across multiple fronts at the same time that they seem so intense.
If particularly Peshmergas who have dealt with this intensity of attack almost as a matter of routine are now describing it as; "Fierce" I am extremely concerned that they have very badly underestimated the level or resistance they are going to face once they enter Mosul itself.
I am also extremely concerned that this is all being described as; "The Operation to Liberate Mosul" when it clearly isn't.
What I would have liked to have seen done is for it to be barely announced that the ISF/Peshmerga were conducting a small operation to liberate the villages around, say, Tel Skuf. Then with things happening elsewhere in Iraq such as the Hawija triangle they would barely announce just a small operation to liberate some of the villages around, say, Nimrud. The idea being to get forces into position to launch an operation to liberate Mosul almost without ISIL realising that was what was happening.
By announcing with massive fanfare that the Mosul operation is underway what could be as much as a month before it is actually underway ISIL have already moved into a defensive posture. For the most part this involves them rounding up civilians in Mosul a dozen at a time and murdering them as spies. To my mind those are civilians who are being killed needlessly.
Despite all the excited talk about preparations being made to the north, the east and the south it is clear that there is one vital element of the plan that is missing; Preparations to stop ISIL bringing in reinforcements from or escaping back into Syria.
By failing to deploy any force to the west of Mosul CJTFOIR is providing ISIL with an area of around 20,000kmsq (12,000milesq) area in which to escape into Syria. Following a theme I've decided to name this area the "Falls Road" after the Falls Road in Belfast Northern Ireland.
One of the main things driving the sense of urgency amongst Iraqis to liberate Mosul was the fate of the some 3,500 women and girls that ISIL has been holding as sex slaves within the city. These are the predominately Yezidi women and girls who were kidnapped from the areas around Mount Sinjar/Shingal when ISIL first swept into Iraq in 2014.
As I've been writing I've begun to receive reports that these sex slaves have already been moved by ISIL along the Falls Road to Raqqa - their de facto capital in Syria.
16:45 on 20/10/16 (UK date).
Since then not much has happened.
As I said at the time this is not an operation to liberate Mosul. Instead it is an operation to get forces into positions from where they can plan and then launch an operation to liberate Mosul. Those forces are being moved into position to the north, east and south of the city.
In the north the Peshmerga are gathering on what is known as the Tel Skuf Front. Tel Skuf being a town some 25km (15 miles) from the outskirts of Mosul. In January through to February 2015 the Peshmerga launched an operation to liberate the Mosul Dam which sits around 35km (20 miles) north-west of Mosul. As part of that operation the Peshmerga removed ISIL from the areas between the Mosul Dam and Tel Skuf.
Today the Peshmerga have advanced in an arc south from Tel Skuf to liberate the towns of Batnay and Tel Kayf in the hope of extending the front to a 30km (20 mile) line between the town of Badush to the west and the town of Bashiqa to the east. As far as I can tell at the time of writing they have succeeded in reaching the town of Batnay which sits around 8km (5 miles) south of Tel Skuf and around 15km (10 miles) north of their objective.
In the east combined ISF/Peshmerga forces are gathering on the Kalak Front. This is essentially where Highway 2 from Erbil to Mosul crosses the Great Zab River - roughly 35km (20 miles) east of Mosul.
On Monday (17/10/16) the advanced to liberate the town of Bartella which sits around 25km (15 miles) west of Kalak along Highway. However I should point out that rather than driving in a convoy along the Highway they are spread out in a line clearing the areas around the Highway as they go. As far as I can tell at the time of writing although they reached Bartella on Monday they have yet to enter the town let alone liberate it.
In the south combined ISF/Peshmerga forces are advancing from two main directions.
The first of these is the Gwer Front which is essentially the northern bank of the Great Zab River some 45km (25 miles) south-east of Mosul along Highway 80. The second of these is Al Qayyarah Air Base some 65km (40 miles) south of Mosul along the Tigris River. It is here that US Special Operations Forces (SOF) and US Marine Corp artillery units are based.
On Monday (17/10/16) the Peshmerga advanced from the Gwer front to the town of Hamman al-Alil some 20km (12 miles) south of Mosul. The idea being that forces from Al Qayyarah will arc around to the west to extend what will become the Hamman al-Alil Front while forces from the Gwer front will advance extending the line to the east.
Unfortunately this already seems to have fallen behind schedule. The Peshmerga reached Hamman al-Alil on Monday (17/10/16) but as far as I can tell at time of writing have not yet entered the town.
The forces advancing from Al-Qayyarah have only succeeded in reaching the town of Al-Baydah which sits on Highway 1 around 25km (15 miles) south-west of Hamman al-Alil. Their control of the area between Al-Baydah and the Tigris River is patchy at best.
Forces advancing along the Gwer Front have been slowed almost to a halt in the Hamdaniya district.
On Monday (17/10/16) the succeeded in liberating the ancient city of Nimrud which sits around 10km (6 miles) north of where the Tigris and Great Zab Rivers meet. Yesterday (19/10/16) they succeeded in forcing ISIL to abandon the town of Kani Harami which sits around 15km (10 miles) north of Nimrud and around 13km (8 miles) south-east of Hamman al-Alil. They are currently battling ISIL for control of the Christian village of Abbas just north or Kani Harami.
What is really slowing down progress is the extensive network of tunnels, bunkers and trenches that ISIL have constructed in and around Mosul. Some of these trenches can be 100ft (30 metres/yards) deep and wide enough to drive fully laden trucks through.
On Monday (17/10/16) the CNN reporter Nick Paton-Walsh got a dramatic introduction to how difficult this type of tunnel warfare can be.
Embedded with Peshmerga forces the convoy Paton-Walsh was travelling in came under attack by an ISIL fighter who'd suddenly popped up from one of these tunnel entrances. With the Peshmerga returning fire the ISIL fighter simply ducked back into the tunnel before popping up at another entrance. When he did this for a third time he found himself surrounded by Peshmerga fighters so detonated a suicide vest. Although one Peshmerga was wounded fortunately none were killed in these attacks.
While the Peshmerga are made of sterner stuff the reaction of Paton-Walsh shows you the sort of panic this type of sudden attack by an unseen enemy popping up from a tunnel can cause.
The problem of course being that for much of the last two months the US and other members of the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) - have been loudly condemning Russia for using bunker-buster type bombs to clear eastern Aleppo City, Syria of this type of tunnel and bunker network.
So rather than admitting that they've been lying for these past two months CJTFOIR is now refusing to use bunker-buster type weapons to clear the tunnel and bunker networks around Mosul jeopardising the entire operation.
Another major concern I have is that in the last couple of days much of the fighting has been described as; "Fierce." Obviously journalists - particularly American ones - have a huge incentive to make everything sound as dramatic as possible. However I have also been hearing this type of comment from military commanders.
ISIL have obviously been trying to defend their positions using small arms fire and Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Devices (VBIED's). However having been following events around Mosul for more than two years now I know that ISIL attacks of this nature on one or another of the various frontlines is almost a weekly occurrence. It is only because the attacks are now being launched defensively across multiple fronts at the same time that they seem so intense.
If particularly Peshmergas who have dealt with this intensity of attack almost as a matter of routine are now describing it as; "Fierce" I am extremely concerned that they have very badly underestimated the level or resistance they are going to face once they enter Mosul itself.
I am also extremely concerned that this is all being described as; "The Operation to Liberate Mosul" when it clearly isn't.
What I would have liked to have seen done is for it to be barely announced that the ISF/Peshmerga were conducting a small operation to liberate the villages around, say, Tel Skuf. Then with things happening elsewhere in Iraq such as the Hawija triangle they would barely announce just a small operation to liberate some of the villages around, say, Nimrud. The idea being to get forces into position to launch an operation to liberate Mosul almost without ISIL realising that was what was happening.
By announcing with massive fanfare that the Mosul operation is underway what could be as much as a month before it is actually underway ISIL have already moved into a defensive posture. For the most part this involves them rounding up civilians in Mosul a dozen at a time and murdering them as spies. To my mind those are civilians who are being killed needlessly.
Despite all the excited talk about preparations being made to the north, the east and the south it is clear that there is one vital element of the plan that is missing; Preparations to stop ISIL bringing in reinforcements from or escaping back into Syria.
By failing to deploy any force to the west of Mosul CJTFOIR is providing ISIL with an area of around 20,000kmsq (12,000milesq) area in which to escape into Syria. Following a theme I've decided to name this area the "Falls Road" after the Falls Road in Belfast Northern Ireland.
One of the main things driving the sense of urgency amongst Iraqis to liberate Mosul was the fate of the some 3,500 women and girls that ISIL has been holding as sex slaves within the city. These are the predominately Yezidi women and girls who were kidnapped from the areas around Mount Sinjar/Shingal when ISIL first swept into Iraq in 2014.
As I've been writing I've begun to receive reports that these sex slaves have already been moved by ISIL along the Falls Road to Raqqa - their de facto capital in Syria.
16:45 on 20/10/16 (UK date).
Monday, 17 October 2016
Operation Featherweight: Month 27, Week 4, Day 5.
In the very early hours of this morning (local) Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi - under what struck me as extreme duress - announced the start of the operation to liberate the northern city of Mosul. The de facto capital of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) in Iraq.
Obviously I want to see ISIL defeated. I also want to see Mosul liberated. So as this operation progresses I will try to be optimistic and supportive. However that will be a difficult task because it is clear that Iraq is nowhere near ready to launch this operation.
One of my main concerns is the sheer distance between Mosul and the forces trying to liberate it.
At the time of al-Abadi's announcement the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga were based on the Gwer frontline which is around 40km (24 miles) south-east of Mosul. Through the course of today they have advanced to the Hammam al-Alil district which sits around 16km (10 miles) south-east of Mosul. Over rough ground and under fire that's still a half-hour drive away from Mosul.
So what we're currently seeing is not an operation to liberate Mosul. Instead it is an operation to move forces to the forward positions from which they would plan an operation to liberate Mosul.
I sincerely hope that once those forward positions have been taken the operation then stops and the next move is carefully planned. Rushing into battles before they've been properly planned out has been a persistent problem with Iraqi forces that has seriously delayed the fight against ISIL.
In April 2015 the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) and in particular the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) militias rushed into an operation to liberate the roughly 70% of the city of Ramadi in Anbar province from ISIL.
Due to poor planning and preparation this operation went so badly that not only did the ISF fail in liberating Ramadi from ISIL they ended up losing the 30% of the city they did control at the start of the operation to ISIL. It wasn't until February 2016 that the ISF finally succeeded in liberating Ramadi from ISIL.
The ISF's last big operation prior to the current one was the operation in May and June 2016 to liberate the city of Fallujah, also in Anbar province. Rather than waiting for the city to be properly encircled the ISF instead rushed in by launching a single attack on the south of the city. This allowed ISIL to focus all its forces on repelling this single column.
Within a day the attack had ground to a halt and it even looked as though the ISF would be forced back amid heavy casualties. It was only when a second attack column was launched from the west of the city that ISIL's defences were split that the city was finally liberated.
By other very big concern is the sheer range of different forces participating in the Mosul operation and the clear tensions between them.
The group that has been most active today has been the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga. Although they've never fought a battle on this scale the Peshmerga have been the most successful in fighting ISIL of all the Iraqi forces. They also have a reputation for integrity and fairness.
Although a largely Sunni-Arab city Mosul is far from exclusively Sunni-Arab. Alongside the large Sunni-Arab population there is also a large Kurdish population along with numerous Yezidi, Armenians, Turkmen and Shia-Arabs. As such it seems likely that the Peshmerga would be widely welcomed as liberators by Mosul's civilian population.
The problem is that Mosul is not part of the semi-autonomous Kurdish region. The Iraqi government is therefore very concerned that the Peshmerga may well attempt to exploit the liberation of Mosul to expand the Kurdish region. Given the Kurdistan Regional Government's (KRG) comments regarding the similar city of Kirkuk this seems to be far from paranoia on the Iraqi government's part.
As a result the Peshmerga have been refused permission to enter Mosul itself. Instead they will limited to securing the outskirts of the city and the surrounding area.
The force that will actually be going into Mosul is the ISF - specifically the Iraqi Army and the Iraqi Police. As with Iraq itself these are made up of predominately Shia-Arabs.
Under Saddam Hussein it was the Sunni-Arab minority that oppressed the Shia-Arab majority including by forcing Shia-Arabs out of areas such as Mosul and Tikrit to make way from Sunni-Arabs. As a result there is longstanding tension and distrust between Iraq's Sunni-Arabs and the ISF. Not least because the Sunni-Arabs initially sided with ISIL - particularly in Mosul.
The tension between Iraq's Sunni-Arabs and the ISF are particularly bad when it comes to the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) - "Al-Hashd Al-Sha'abi" in Arabic. This is actually a coalition of around 40 different militia groups. The majority of these are Shia-Arab and some of them have a particularly bad reputation for sectarian violence against particularly Sunni-Arabs and Kurds but generally anybody who isn't Shia-Arab.
In order to ease that tension the PMF will not be entering Mosul as part of the ISF. Instead like the Peshmerga they will be limited to securing the outskirts of the city and the surrounding area.
This is actually rather disappointing because their extreme hatred of ISIL makes the PMF a high effective cutting edge or tip of the spear when it comes to offensive operations. The trick is to quickly back-fill the areas they've liberated with more moderate and professional forces to hold the ground.
Although predominately so the PMF are not exclusively Shia-Muslim. One of the PMF militias that will be particularly important in the Mosul operation is a Sunni-Arab one belonging to the Jabouri tribe which is indigenous to Mosul and the surrounding area - particularly to the south.
The problem is that there is a second Sunni-Arab militia that is not part of the PMF and is not affiliated to ISF. They are of the Nujaifi tribe which traditionally ruled Mosul and the surrounding area when it was part of the Ottoman Empire.
This is the militia that Turkey has been training at the Bashiqa camp. As part of recent a cyber-attack on the Iraqi government they released a map showing Mosul and Erbil as part of Turkey.
Today Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared that it is out of the question that Turkey and the Nujaifi militia will stay out of the Mosul operation. Erdogan went on to say that he will not hesitate to intervene with military force at the first hint of sectarian violence in Mosul. To back up his threat Turkey has deployed a large number of troops, tanks and armoured vehicles to its border with Iraq.
So this Mosul operation seems to be running a very high risk that it will trigger a conflict between two Sunni-Arab tribes. Not only that but Erdogan looks like to try and use that conflict as an excuse to launch a large scale military invasion and occupation of northern Iraq similar to the invasion and occupation that Turkey is currently undertaking in northern Syria.
Experience has taught us that in managing this threat the Iraqi government and the KRG can expect absolutely no help from the US or President Obama.
Sadly a lot of the responsibility for this volatile situation seems to lie with Masoud Barzani - the President of the Iraqi Kurdish region.
On October 4th (4/10/16) the Iraqi Parliament passed a motion demanding that Turkey immediately ceased its training of the Nujaifi militia and removed its forces from both the Bashiqa camp and all of Iraq. The matter was then elevated to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC).
The problem is that despite Erdogan's treatment of Turkey's and Syria's Kurdish populations Barzani decided to side with Erdogan over the Iraq Parliament. So rather than joining the calls for the Turkish troops to be removed Barzani invited them to stay in the Kurdish region for as long as they liked. This lack of a united front reduced the pressure on Erdogan meaning that the situation remains unresolved.
Also alongside the US and Turkey Barzani also seems to have been exerting pressure on a reluctant Iraqi to start the Mosul operation before preparations are complete. For example Barzani came out and declared the operation had begun on Saturday (15/10/16) night - two days before the operation began.
Although it was late in a long day I also slightly got the impression that al-Abadi took a swipe at Barzani in his own address to the nation declaring the operation under way.
My main concern though remains that this operation is being dictated by the US. Their objective is not to defeat ISIL. It's not even to liberate Mosul. Instead it is to generate positive news coverage in the hope of getting Hillary Clinton elected in November. That is absolutely no way to conduct a war.
In order to achieve this objective the US has done the unthinkable. Through Erdogan they have brokered a deal with ISIL that will see them granted safe passage from Mosul to Raqqa in Syria.
Now the operation is underway that US backed evacuation of ISIL fighters from Mosul has sped up. Since dawn there have been numerous reports of ISIL fighter gathering in the Baaj area in the east of the city before being loaded onto convoys of vehicles heading for Syria along Highway 47 via Tal Afar.
The provincial council for Nineveh province in which Mosul sits have apparently been calling on the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolves (CJTFOIR) - to destroy these convoys or at the very least destroy the road.
So far CJTFOIR seems to be refusing.
17:05 on 17/10/16 (UK date).
Obviously I want to see ISIL defeated. I also want to see Mosul liberated. So as this operation progresses I will try to be optimistic and supportive. However that will be a difficult task because it is clear that Iraq is nowhere near ready to launch this operation.
One of my main concerns is the sheer distance between Mosul and the forces trying to liberate it.
At the time of al-Abadi's announcement the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga were based on the Gwer frontline which is around 40km (24 miles) south-east of Mosul. Through the course of today they have advanced to the Hammam al-Alil district which sits around 16km (10 miles) south-east of Mosul. Over rough ground and under fire that's still a half-hour drive away from Mosul.
So what we're currently seeing is not an operation to liberate Mosul. Instead it is an operation to move forces to the forward positions from which they would plan an operation to liberate Mosul.
I sincerely hope that once those forward positions have been taken the operation then stops and the next move is carefully planned. Rushing into battles before they've been properly planned out has been a persistent problem with Iraqi forces that has seriously delayed the fight against ISIL.
In April 2015 the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) and in particular the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) militias rushed into an operation to liberate the roughly 70% of the city of Ramadi in Anbar province from ISIL.
Due to poor planning and preparation this operation went so badly that not only did the ISF fail in liberating Ramadi from ISIL they ended up losing the 30% of the city they did control at the start of the operation to ISIL. It wasn't until February 2016 that the ISF finally succeeded in liberating Ramadi from ISIL.
The ISF's last big operation prior to the current one was the operation in May and June 2016 to liberate the city of Fallujah, also in Anbar province. Rather than waiting for the city to be properly encircled the ISF instead rushed in by launching a single attack on the south of the city. This allowed ISIL to focus all its forces on repelling this single column.
Within a day the attack had ground to a halt and it even looked as though the ISF would be forced back amid heavy casualties. It was only when a second attack column was launched from the west of the city that ISIL's defences were split that the city was finally liberated.
By other very big concern is the sheer range of different forces participating in the Mosul operation and the clear tensions between them.
The group that has been most active today has been the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga. Although they've never fought a battle on this scale the Peshmerga have been the most successful in fighting ISIL of all the Iraqi forces. They also have a reputation for integrity and fairness.
Although a largely Sunni-Arab city Mosul is far from exclusively Sunni-Arab. Alongside the large Sunni-Arab population there is also a large Kurdish population along with numerous Yezidi, Armenians, Turkmen and Shia-Arabs. As such it seems likely that the Peshmerga would be widely welcomed as liberators by Mosul's civilian population.
The problem is that Mosul is not part of the semi-autonomous Kurdish region. The Iraqi government is therefore very concerned that the Peshmerga may well attempt to exploit the liberation of Mosul to expand the Kurdish region. Given the Kurdistan Regional Government's (KRG) comments regarding the similar city of Kirkuk this seems to be far from paranoia on the Iraqi government's part.
As a result the Peshmerga have been refused permission to enter Mosul itself. Instead they will limited to securing the outskirts of the city and the surrounding area.
The force that will actually be going into Mosul is the ISF - specifically the Iraqi Army and the Iraqi Police. As with Iraq itself these are made up of predominately Shia-Arabs.
Under Saddam Hussein it was the Sunni-Arab minority that oppressed the Shia-Arab majority including by forcing Shia-Arabs out of areas such as Mosul and Tikrit to make way from Sunni-Arabs. As a result there is longstanding tension and distrust between Iraq's Sunni-Arabs and the ISF. Not least because the Sunni-Arabs initially sided with ISIL - particularly in Mosul.
The tension between Iraq's Sunni-Arabs and the ISF are particularly bad when it comes to the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) - "Al-Hashd Al-Sha'abi" in Arabic. This is actually a coalition of around 40 different militia groups. The majority of these are Shia-Arab and some of them have a particularly bad reputation for sectarian violence against particularly Sunni-Arabs and Kurds but generally anybody who isn't Shia-Arab.
In order to ease that tension the PMF will not be entering Mosul as part of the ISF. Instead like the Peshmerga they will be limited to securing the outskirts of the city and the surrounding area.
This is actually rather disappointing because their extreme hatred of ISIL makes the PMF a high effective cutting edge or tip of the spear when it comes to offensive operations. The trick is to quickly back-fill the areas they've liberated with more moderate and professional forces to hold the ground.
Although predominately so the PMF are not exclusively Shia-Muslim. One of the PMF militias that will be particularly important in the Mosul operation is a Sunni-Arab one belonging to the Jabouri tribe which is indigenous to Mosul and the surrounding area - particularly to the south.
The problem is that there is a second Sunni-Arab militia that is not part of the PMF and is not affiliated to ISF. They are of the Nujaifi tribe which traditionally ruled Mosul and the surrounding area when it was part of the Ottoman Empire.
This is the militia that Turkey has been training at the Bashiqa camp. As part of recent a cyber-attack on the Iraqi government they released a map showing Mosul and Erbil as part of Turkey.
Today Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared that it is out of the question that Turkey and the Nujaifi militia will stay out of the Mosul operation. Erdogan went on to say that he will not hesitate to intervene with military force at the first hint of sectarian violence in Mosul. To back up his threat Turkey has deployed a large number of troops, tanks and armoured vehicles to its border with Iraq.
So this Mosul operation seems to be running a very high risk that it will trigger a conflict between two Sunni-Arab tribes. Not only that but Erdogan looks like to try and use that conflict as an excuse to launch a large scale military invasion and occupation of northern Iraq similar to the invasion and occupation that Turkey is currently undertaking in northern Syria.
Experience has taught us that in managing this threat the Iraqi government and the KRG can expect absolutely no help from the US or President Obama.
Sadly a lot of the responsibility for this volatile situation seems to lie with Masoud Barzani - the President of the Iraqi Kurdish region.
On October 4th (4/10/16) the Iraqi Parliament passed a motion demanding that Turkey immediately ceased its training of the Nujaifi militia and removed its forces from both the Bashiqa camp and all of Iraq. The matter was then elevated to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC).
The problem is that despite Erdogan's treatment of Turkey's and Syria's Kurdish populations Barzani decided to side with Erdogan over the Iraq Parliament. So rather than joining the calls for the Turkish troops to be removed Barzani invited them to stay in the Kurdish region for as long as they liked. This lack of a united front reduced the pressure on Erdogan meaning that the situation remains unresolved.
Also alongside the US and Turkey Barzani also seems to have been exerting pressure on a reluctant Iraqi to start the Mosul operation before preparations are complete. For example Barzani came out and declared the operation had begun on Saturday (15/10/16) night - two days before the operation began.
Although it was late in a long day I also slightly got the impression that al-Abadi took a swipe at Barzani in his own address to the nation declaring the operation under way.
My main concern though remains that this operation is being dictated by the US. Their objective is not to defeat ISIL. It's not even to liberate Mosul. Instead it is to generate positive news coverage in the hope of getting Hillary Clinton elected in November. That is absolutely no way to conduct a war.
In order to achieve this objective the US has done the unthinkable. Through Erdogan they have brokered a deal with ISIL that will see them granted safe passage from Mosul to Raqqa in Syria.
Now the operation is underway that US backed evacuation of ISIL fighters from Mosul has sped up. Since dawn there have been numerous reports of ISIL fighter gathering in the Baaj area in the east of the city before being loaded onto convoys of vehicles heading for Syria along Highway 47 via Tal Afar.
The provincial council for Nineveh province in which Mosul sits have apparently been calling on the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolves (CJTFOIR) - to destroy these convoys or at the very least destroy the road.
So far CJTFOIR seems to be refusing.
17:05 on 17/10/16 (UK date).
Sunday, 16 October 2016
Operation Featherweight: Month 27, Week 4, Day 4.
In the very early hours of this morning (local) predominately Turkish and
American troops began an intense artillery barrage against the northern Iraqi
city of Mosul.
This was almost immediately followed by an intense series of primarily American airstrikes against the city which has been occupied by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) since the summer of 2014.
This overnight barrage almost immediately started rumours that an operation to liberate Mosul was under way. After all that would fit in perfectly with the detailed battle plan that was published in the October 8th (8/10/16) edition of the unapologetically pro-ISIL "The Economist" magazine.
That of course was the same edition in which they invited US President Barack Obama to write a guest column to extol the virtues of his self-proclaimed American economic miracle. I'll leave you to guess who they're endorsing to be the next President of the US.
In the defence of Mosul ISIL have erected multiple rings of defensive lines. The first of these is a moat reminiscent of the Prophet's siege of Medina filled with oil. Yesterday (15/10/16) ISIL set fire to that oil producing both a wall of fire and a smokescreen. Behind that moat the next layer of defence is a complex network of tunnels and bunkers similar to those used by the Viet Cong during the Vietnam war.
So before any ground troops enter Mosul the US will have to do exactly what it is condemning Russia for doing in the eastern part of Syria's Aleppo City. Intense air and artillery strikes to destroy that network of tunnels and bunkers along with other defensive positions such as trenches.
We all ready know when the US thinks this period of softening up will be complete and ground troops will be able advance into Mosul.
Recep Tayyip Erdogan the President/Prime Minister/Emperor of the US' supposed ally Turkey told the World when it will be all the way back on September 25th (25/9/16). It will be at dawn (local) on Wednesday (19/10/16) - the day of the third and final US Presidential debate.
Sadly only yesterday (15/10/16) we were given further evidence of just how woefully unprepared Iraq is to launch an operation to liberate Mosul.
Yesterday (15/10/16) the wife and children of the head of one of the tribes making up the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) militia were killed in an ISIL attack in the home in Tikrit. Predominately but not exclusively Shia the PMF make up part of the Iraq Security Forces (ISF).
Along with Kirkuk and Baiji Tikrit makes up one point of what is known as the Hawija triangle. Sitting around 150km (90 miles) north of Baghdad and around 215km (130 miles) south of Mosul ISIL's continued occupation of the Hawija triangle has been a persistent problem since Tikrit itself was liberated all the way back in April 2015.
Also yesterday (15/10/16) 41 civilians were killed and 33 others wounded in an ISIL attack inside Baghdad itself. Those killed were returning from a pilgrimage marking the Shia holy day of Ashura. On the northern outskirts of the city another ISIL attack against a police checkpoint killed 8 and wounded 11.
It is quite hard to say where ISIL are launching these attacks from. Obviously it seems extremely likely that the attack in Tikrit was launched from the Hawija triangle. However despite recent gains ISIL continue to maintain a presence with the south-western Anbar province and in and around Saladin and Diyala provinces just to the north of Baghdad.
It was only yesterday (15/10/16) that the ISF was able to liberate the Haditha to Baiji Highway 19 road in Anbar province from ISIL. Some 150km (90 miles) long this road links ISIL's remaining positions in Anbar with ISIL positions in the Hawija triangle. Although the liberation of the road makes it harder for ISIL to travel between Anbar and Hawija as I'm sure Jeep, Toyota or Land Rover will attest you don't need a road to drive from one place to another.
The argument the US will put forward to support the Mosul operation is that the liberation of Mosul will make it harder for ISIL to mount attacks from Anbar, the Hawija triangle or the areas on the outskirts of Baghdad. This is simply not true.
Both the attack in Tikrit and the attack on Ashura pilgrims were carried out by suicide bombers. In order to carry out this type of attack you need at most 1kg (2lbs) of high explosives. If the explosive in question is something like TATP you’re talking about an object the size of a small bag of flour. If the explosive is something like military grade TNT you’re talking about an object the size of a small pack of butter.
These handheld objects are obviously incredibly easy to hide in a vehicles spare tyre, gas tanks, door panels or any load the vehicle could be carrying such as large sacks of flour.
Apart from the fact that explosives are very easy to smuggle ISIL has likely built up arsenals of weapons in areas such as the Hawija triangle or Anbar either hidden in buildings or buried in oil drums in the desert. Just on Friday (14/10/16) a British Royal Marine reservist was convicted of stealing weapons and stashing them in just such a hide in the New Forest in Hampshire.
Obviously it is not practical to stop every vehicle travelling everywhere in Iraq and then disassemble both it and its cargo to make sure it is not smuggling weapons for ISIL.
So the only way that Iraq is going to rid itself of this ISIL threat is by conducting military operations against all ISIL controlled areas. This allows them to kill any ISIL fighters in that area, check those fighters are not hiding amongst the civilian population and search entire city blocks for weapons caches.
Unless Iraq does that then it is condemning itself to terrorist violence almost indefinitely. Or at least until the security situation gets so bad that they’re prepared to accept a Saddam-style Sunni dictator. For the sake of arguments at this point let’s call him; “Recep.”
The US’ only concern at this point is to secure a big flag, chest beating victory of Mosul in the days just before the November 8th (8/11/16) Presidential election in order to sweep Hillary Clinton to power.
The US seems extremely confident of succeeding in this timetable. The persistent rumour is that through Erdogan the US has brokered a deal with ISIL.
Although ISIL will leave a few fighters in Mosul to make it look convincing the US will grant the bulk of ISIL’s fighters safe passage from Mosul to Raqqa in Syria. This deal already seems to be in effect.
Crucially in perpetration for the Mosul operation the US has declined to liberate the town of Tal Afar from ISIL. This sits on the main Highway 47 linking Mosul with Syria.
On Friday (14/10/16) a convoy of ISIL vehicles arrived unmolested in Raqqa from Mosul. This was made up of 10 coaches/buses each carrying around 80 people each alongside 35 pick-up trucks each carrying around 10 people each.
Assuming those vehicles were all fully loaded we’re talking about 1,200 ISIL fighters being given safe passage from Mosul. That is around one quarter of the 4,500 fighters that ISIL were estimated to have in Mosul at the start of last week.
On an almost daily basis there are reports of similar convoys containing wounded ISIL fighters leaving Mosul for Raqqa along Highway 47. There have been no reports of these convoys being attacked let alone destroyed by US airstrikes.
In conventional warfare between nations this type of negotiated retreat has some value.
For example in the 1982 Falklands war the UK forced Argentinean troops out of the islands they refer to as the Malvinas. However they did not then go on to invade Argentina. Instead the nations went on to restore normal if bad tempered diplomatic relations.
Likewise in 1991 Gulf War once the coalition which incidentally included Syria had forced Saddam’s troops from Kuwait they did not then go on to invade Iraq.
However ISIL are not a nation state. They are a terrorist group and one that most certainly does not adhere to accepted diplomatic norms. As such there will be no negotiated solution with them. This will only end when they are all either dead or in jail.
Staging this final battle in Raqqa is a particularly bad idea at the moment. That is because the August 25th (25/8/16) Turkish invasion of Syria has still not been resolved. In fact it has been allowed to get worse.
Today it is being reported that Turkish backed forces have liberated the town of Dabiq in Syria from ISIL. As always from reporters based in Turkey this is not exactly the truth.
Although they are backed by regular Turkish forces there are two main groups that have taken control of Dabiq.
The first of these is the Sultan Murad division of the United Turkmen Army (UTA). They are part of the paramilitary wing of the Turkish Nationalist Movement Party (MHP).
The second group is the Islamic Movement of the Freemen of the Levant/Harrakat Ahrar ash-Sham al-Islamiyya (Ahrar al-Sham).
Alongside the Al Qaeda affiliate Al Nusra Front both the UTA and Ahrar al-Sham fight as part of the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition of Islamist terrorists.
Long term allies ISIL and the Army of Conquest have an extensive history of rotating control of areas between themselves as the political need dictates.
Most notably in August 2015 when Erdogan instructed the Army of Conquest to hand control of the Marea (8km/5miles north-west of Dabiq) to ISIL to provide an excuse for Turkey to launch the invasion we’re now seeing. When that initial invasion was shelved in December 2015 Erdogan simply instructed the Army of Conquest to return control of Marea back to ISIL.
When the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) crossed the Euphrates River in May 2016 Erdogan instructed ISIL to cede control of the border town of Cobanbey (50km/30miles) west of the Euphrates to the Army of Conquest. When it became clear that the Army of Conquest wouldn’t be receiving US backing to then attack the SDF Erdogan simply ordered the Army of Conquest to return Cobanbey back to ISIL control.
Although of extremely limited strategic importance the town of Dabiq is of huge symbolic significance.
Located 30km (20 miles) north of Aleppo City and 20km (10 miles) south of Syria’s border with Turkey it was scene of a key battle in the 1515-1516 war between the Ottoman and Mamluk Empires. The defeat of the Mamluks at Dabiq in August 1516 led to the collapse of their Empire and the establishment of the Ottoman Empire across the Middle-East, North Africa (MENA) region.
The fact that ISIL identify Dabiq as the scene of the vital battle between the Islamic Caliphate and the Infidel’s should tell you all you need to know about the extremely close alliance between ISIL and Erdogan’s Turkey.
Turkey’s reason for invading Syria on August 25th (25/8/16) was to stop the SDF cutting ISIL’s supply lines between Turkey and their de facto Syrian capital of Raqqa.
With this supply route still open by granting ISIL fighters safe passage from Mosul to Raqqa the US is effectively also granted them safe passage via Turkey into either Europe or north African nations such as Tunisia, Libya and Egypt.
During the recent celebrations of their 241st Birthday the US Navy seemed very keen to remind everybody of their role in the 1801-1805 Barbary War. This was fought in the Mediterranean Sea off the coast of Tunisia, Libya and Egypt. At the time those so-called Barbary Nations were part of the Ottoman Empire – the last Islamist Caliphate.
The US granting ISIL fighters safe passage from Mosul to Raqqa whilst the Turkish occupation of northern Syria continues also presents another problem. It won’t be long until Erdogan starts putting pressure on the US to allow Turkey to mount an operation to switch control of Raqqa from ISIL to the Army of Conquest.
If the last six years have taught us anything the moment Erdogan exerts any form of pressure on Obama then Obama will cave and let Erdogan do whatever the hell he likes.
So we seem to be on the verge of Turkey annexing the entire north-east of Syria from Azaz/Kilis all the way down the Euphrates River basin. That is alongside Turkey annexing the entire north-west of Iraq across the Nineveh plains between Mosul and the border with Syria.
For the past year Turkey has been conducting airstrikes against the Kurdistan region of northern Iraq between Mosul and the border with Iran. Surely it won’t be long before Erdogan starts using the threat of Kurdish terrorism to also annex that region as he attempts to re-establish the Ottoman Empire.
This is all alarmingly reminiscent of Nazi Germany’s annexation of the Sudetenland in 1938. That was the event that tore apart the League of Nations leading to both the Second World War and then the Cold War.
So due to Obama’s efforts to have Hillary Clinton appointed President at any cost I suspect that whomever wins in November may well refuse to take up the job.
17:30 on 16/10/16 (UK date).
This was almost immediately followed by an intense series of primarily American airstrikes against the city which has been occupied by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) since the summer of 2014.
This overnight barrage almost immediately started rumours that an operation to liberate Mosul was under way. After all that would fit in perfectly with the detailed battle plan that was published in the October 8th (8/10/16) edition of the unapologetically pro-ISIL "The Economist" magazine.
That of course was the same edition in which they invited US President Barack Obama to write a guest column to extol the virtues of his self-proclaimed American economic miracle. I'll leave you to guess who they're endorsing to be the next President of the US.
In the defence of Mosul ISIL have erected multiple rings of defensive lines. The first of these is a moat reminiscent of the Prophet's siege of Medina filled with oil. Yesterday (15/10/16) ISIL set fire to that oil producing both a wall of fire and a smokescreen. Behind that moat the next layer of defence is a complex network of tunnels and bunkers similar to those used by the Viet Cong during the Vietnam war.
So before any ground troops enter Mosul the US will have to do exactly what it is condemning Russia for doing in the eastern part of Syria's Aleppo City. Intense air and artillery strikes to destroy that network of tunnels and bunkers along with other defensive positions such as trenches.
We all ready know when the US thinks this period of softening up will be complete and ground troops will be able advance into Mosul.
Recep Tayyip Erdogan the President/Prime Minister/Emperor of the US' supposed ally Turkey told the World when it will be all the way back on September 25th (25/9/16). It will be at dawn (local) on Wednesday (19/10/16) - the day of the third and final US Presidential debate.
Sadly only yesterday (15/10/16) we were given further evidence of just how woefully unprepared Iraq is to launch an operation to liberate Mosul.
Yesterday (15/10/16) the wife and children of the head of one of the tribes making up the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) militia were killed in an ISIL attack in the home in Tikrit. Predominately but not exclusively Shia the PMF make up part of the Iraq Security Forces (ISF).
Along with Kirkuk and Baiji Tikrit makes up one point of what is known as the Hawija triangle. Sitting around 150km (90 miles) north of Baghdad and around 215km (130 miles) south of Mosul ISIL's continued occupation of the Hawija triangle has been a persistent problem since Tikrit itself was liberated all the way back in April 2015.
Also yesterday (15/10/16) 41 civilians were killed and 33 others wounded in an ISIL attack inside Baghdad itself. Those killed were returning from a pilgrimage marking the Shia holy day of Ashura. On the northern outskirts of the city another ISIL attack against a police checkpoint killed 8 and wounded 11.
It is quite hard to say where ISIL are launching these attacks from. Obviously it seems extremely likely that the attack in Tikrit was launched from the Hawija triangle. However despite recent gains ISIL continue to maintain a presence with the south-western Anbar province and in and around Saladin and Diyala provinces just to the north of Baghdad.
It was only yesterday (15/10/16) that the ISF was able to liberate the Haditha to Baiji Highway 19 road in Anbar province from ISIL. Some 150km (90 miles) long this road links ISIL's remaining positions in Anbar with ISIL positions in the Hawija triangle. Although the liberation of the road makes it harder for ISIL to travel between Anbar and Hawija as I'm sure Jeep, Toyota or Land Rover will attest you don't need a road to drive from one place to another.
The argument the US will put forward to support the Mosul operation is that the liberation of Mosul will make it harder for ISIL to mount attacks from Anbar, the Hawija triangle or the areas on the outskirts of Baghdad. This is simply not true.
Both the attack in Tikrit and the attack on Ashura pilgrims were carried out by suicide bombers. In order to carry out this type of attack you need at most 1kg (2lbs) of high explosives. If the explosive in question is something like TATP you’re talking about an object the size of a small bag of flour. If the explosive is something like military grade TNT you’re talking about an object the size of a small pack of butter.
These handheld objects are obviously incredibly easy to hide in a vehicles spare tyre, gas tanks, door panels or any load the vehicle could be carrying such as large sacks of flour.
Apart from the fact that explosives are very easy to smuggle ISIL has likely built up arsenals of weapons in areas such as the Hawija triangle or Anbar either hidden in buildings or buried in oil drums in the desert. Just on Friday (14/10/16) a British Royal Marine reservist was convicted of stealing weapons and stashing them in just such a hide in the New Forest in Hampshire.
Obviously it is not practical to stop every vehicle travelling everywhere in Iraq and then disassemble both it and its cargo to make sure it is not smuggling weapons for ISIL.
So the only way that Iraq is going to rid itself of this ISIL threat is by conducting military operations against all ISIL controlled areas. This allows them to kill any ISIL fighters in that area, check those fighters are not hiding amongst the civilian population and search entire city blocks for weapons caches.
Unless Iraq does that then it is condemning itself to terrorist violence almost indefinitely. Or at least until the security situation gets so bad that they’re prepared to accept a Saddam-style Sunni dictator. For the sake of arguments at this point let’s call him; “Recep.”
The US’ only concern at this point is to secure a big flag, chest beating victory of Mosul in the days just before the November 8th (8/11/16) Presidential election in order to sweep Hillary Clinton to power.
The US seems extremely confident of succeeding in this timetable. The persistent rumour is that through Erdogan the US has brokered a deal with ISIL.
Although ISIL will leave a few fighters in Mosul to make it look convincing the US will grant the bulk of ISIL’s fighters safe passage from Mosul to Raqqa in Syria. This deal already seems to be in effect.
Crucially in perpetration for the Mosul operation the US has declined to liberate the town of Tal Afar from ISIL. This sits on the main Highway 47 linking Mosul with Syria.
On Friday (14/10/16) a convoy of ISIL vehicles arrived unmolested in Raqqa from Mosul. This was made up of 10 coaches/buses each carrying around 80 people each alongside 35 pick-up trucks each carrying around 10 people each.
Assuming those vehicles were all fully loaded we’re talking about 1,200 ISIL fighters being given safe passage from Mosul. That is around one quarter of the 4,500 fighters that ISIL were estimated to have in Mosul at the start of last week.
On an almost daily basis there are reports of similar convoys containing wounded ISIL fighters leaving Mosul for Raqqa along Highway 47. There have been no reports of these convoys being attacked let alone destroyed by US airstrikes.
In conventional warfare between nations this type of negotiated retreat has some value.
For example in the 1982 Falklands war the UK forced Argentinean troops out of the islands they refer to as the Malvinas. However they did not then go on to invade Argentina. Instead the nations went on to restore normal if bad tempered diplomatic relations.
Likewise in 1991 Gulf War once the coalition which incidentally included Syria had forced Saddam’s troops from Kuwait they did not then go on to invade Iraq.
However ISIL are not a nation state. They are a terrorist group and one that most certainly does not adhere to accepted diplomatic norms. As such there will be no negotiated solution with them. This will only end when they are all either dead or in jail.
Staging this final battle in Raqqa is a particularly bad idea at the moment. That is because the August 25th (25/8/16) Turkish invasion of Syria has still not been resolved. In fact it has been allowed to get worse.
Today it is being reported that Turkish backed forces have liberated the town of Dabiq in Syria from ISIL. As always from reporters based in Turkey this is not exactly the truth.
Although they are backed by regular Turkish forces there are two main groups that have taken control of Dabiq.
The first of these is the Sultan Murad division of the United Turkmen Army (UTA). They are part of the paramilitary wing of the Turkish Nationalist Movement Party (MHP).
The second group is the Islamic Movement of the Freemen of the Levant/Harrakat Ahrar ash-Sham al-Islamiyya (Ahrar al-Sham).
Alongside the Al Qaeda affiliate Al Nusra Front both the UTA and Ahrar al-Sham fight as part of the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition of Islamist terrorists.
Long term allies ISIL and the Army of Conquest have an extensive history of rotating control of areas between themselves as the political need dictates.
Most notably in August 2015 when Erdogan instructed the Army of Conquest to hand control of the Marea (8km/5miles north-west of Dabiq) to ISIL to provide an excuse for Turkey to launch the invasion we’re now seeing. When that initial invasion was shelved in December 2015 Erdogan simply instructed the Army of Conquest to return control of Marea back to ISIL.
When the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) crossed the Euphrates River in May 2016 Erdogan instructed ISIL to cede control of the border town of Cobanbey (50km/30miles) west of the Euphrates to the Army of Conquest. When it became clear that the Army of Conquest wouldn’t be receiving US backing to then attack the SDF Erdogan simply ordered the Army of Conquest to return Cobanbey back to ISIL control.
Although of extremely limited strategic importance the town of Dabiq is of huge symbolic significance.
Located 30km (20 miles) north of Aleppo City and 20km (10 miles) south of Syria’s border with Turkey it was scene of a key battle in the 1515-1516 war between the Ottoman and Mamluk Empires. The defeat of the Mamluks at Dabiq in August 1516 led to the collapse of their Empire and the establishment of the Ottoman Empire across the Middle-East, North Africa (MENA) region.
The fact that ISIL identify Dabiq as the scene of the vital battle between the Islamic Caliphate and the Infidel’s should tell you all you need to know about the extremely close alliance between ISIL and Erdogan’s Turkey.
Turkey’s reason for invading Syria on August 25th (25/8/16) was to stop the SDF cutting ISIL’s supply lines between Turkey and their de facto Syrian capital of Raqqa.
With this supply route still open by granting ISIL fighters safe passage from Mosul to Raqqa the US is effectively also granted them safe passage via Turkey into either Europe or north African nations such as Tunisia, Libya and Egypt.
During the recent celebrations of their 241st Birthday the US Navy seemed very keen to remind everybody of their role in the 1801-1805 Barbary War. This was fought in the Mediterranean Sea off the coast of Tunisia, Libya and Egypt. At the time those so-called Barbary Nations were part of the Ottoman Empire – the last Islamist Caliphate.
The US granting ISIL fighters safe passage from Mosul to Raqqa whilst the Turkish occupation of northern Syria continues also presents another problem. It won’t be long until Erdogan starts putting pressure on the US to allow Turkey to mount an operation to switch control of Raqqa from ISIL to the Army of Conquest.
If the last six years have taught us anything the moment Erdogan exerts any form of pressure on Obama then Obama will cave and let Erdogan do whatever the hell he likes.
So we seem to be on the verge of Turkey annexing the entire north-east of Syria from Azaz/Kilis all the way down the Euphrates River basin. That is alongside Turkey annexing the entire north-west of Iraq across the Nineveh plains between Mosul and the border with Syria.
For the past year Turkey has been conducting airstrikes against the Kurdistan region of northern Iraq between Mosul and the border with Iran. Surely it won’t be long before Erdogan starts using the threat of Kurdish terrorism to also annex that region as he attempts to re-establish the Ottoman Empire.
This is all alarmingly reminiscent of Nazi Germany’s annexation of the Sudetenland in 1938. That was the event that tore apart the League of Nations leading to both the Second World War and then the Cold War.
So due to Obama’s efforts to have Hillary Clinton appointed President at any cost I suspect that whomever wins in November may well refuse to take up the job.
17:30 on 16/10/16 (UK date).
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