Operation Featherweight: Month 22, Week 2, Day 5.

On Wednesday (4/5/16) the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) held a special meeting to discuss the recent increase in violence in Syria's Aleppo province.

If the purpose of this meeting was to genuinely discuss the facts of that increased violence UNSC members - particularly the US and the Russia - would have to share the battlefield intelligence such as aerial surveillance, radar data, communications intercepts etc that they had gathered on Aleppo. In order to protect the sources of that intelligence this would only be done in a closed session.

The fact that Wednesday's UNSC session was an open session demonstrates that it was not a genuine attempt to discuss recent events in Syria. Instead it was to provide an opportunity for certain UNSC members - particularly the UK - to pose for the cameras in response to the carefully marshaled #AleppoIsBurning social media campaign against the Syrian government.

As we've come to expect the comments of the US Ambassador to the UN Samantha Power were particularly troubling. Attributing blame to the Syrian government Ms Power's comments were based entirely on the premise that violence returned to Aleppo on April 22nd 2016 (22/4/16).

Therefore I am now forced to take time out of my busy day to fill in the vast gaps in Ms Power's timeline of events;

February 12th 2016 (12/2/16) - Russia and the US agree a cessation of hostilities agreement.

Based on UNSC resolution 2254 (2015) this makes quite clear that it does not apply to the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), Al Qaeda's Syrian affiliate Al Nusra Front (ANF) nor any other individual, group, undertaking or entity associated with either ISIL or ANF. Within Syria ANF operate as part of a wider coalition known as the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) alongside numerous other groups including those which are frequently described as moderate.

As such it was agreed by all members of the UNSC that the cessation of hostilities agreement does not apply in any way shape or form to the Army of Conquest. As all groups operating in Aleppo province are part of the Army Conquest it was also agreed that the fighting in Aleppo province could continue unabated.

Despite being under no obligation to do so separately from the UNSC endorsed cessation of hostilities agreement Russia and Syria voluntarily opted to limit their operations in and around Aleppo in order to provide humanitarian relief to the civilian population.

February 26th 2016 (26/2/16) - The cessation of hostilities agreement enters into force and Russia and Syria begin their voluntary humanitarian pause.

March 28th 2016 (28/3/16) - The US sends three armed pick-up trucks ("Technicals") containing US trained and equipped fighters across Turkey's border with Syria to join up with the Army of Conquest close to the Syrian town of Azaz. This is in clear violation of numerous UNSC resolutions passed since UNSCR 1267 (1999) forbidding the provision of material support to Al Qaeda including UNSCR 2254 (2015) and therefore the cessation of hostilities agreement. It is also a violation of Title 18 of the US' own criminal code.

April 1st 2016 (1/4/16) - Bolstered by their American reinforcements the Army of Conquest launch an offensive which captures the town of Tel Al-Ais which overlooks Aleppo City. From this high ground the Army of Conquest begin launching artillery attacks and snipe fire against the Kurdish civilian Sheikh Maqsoud district of Aleppo City. In the first four days this bombardment kills 11 civilians and wounds 38 more including women and children.

The US is forced to confirm that it has resumed its support for the Army of Conquest.

April 8th 2016 (8/4/16) - The Army of Conquest launch a chemical weapons attacks - suspected Sulphur Mustard Gas - attack against the Sheikh Maqsoud district of Aleppo City. Despite a denial by the US that the attack had taken place it was quickly claimed by the Army of Islam/Jaish al-Islam (JAI) faction of the Army of Conquest. They claim it was the work of a rogue commander who is to be severely punished.

The civilian death toll of the Army of Conquest's conventional attacks on the Shiekh Maqsoud rises to 30.

April 10th 2016 (10/4/16) - Multiple confirmed reports emerge that the Army of Conquest is massing a force of 10,000+ to the south of Aleppo City in preparation to launch an offensive to capture the M5 Highway linking Aleppo City to the outside world. As the UN and nations such as the US have acknowledged the sealing off and laying siege to Aleppo City would lead to a humanitarian disaster.

April 12th 2016 (12/4/16) - The Army of Conquest launch their offensive to capture the M5 Highway. This puts them in direct combat with the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) of the Syrian government. The Army of Conquest are beaten back by the SAA at the village of Al-Eis.

The Army of Conquest launches a second chemical weapons attack against the Sheikh Maqsoud district of Aleppo City.

April 13th 2016 (13/4/16) - Syria holds its Parliamentary election as mandated by the nation's constitution.

April 17th 2016 (18/4/16)  - Whilst continuing to repel Army of Conquest attempts to capture the M5 Highway to the south of Aleppo City the SAA launches an operation to liberate the Highway 214 and the Tel Rifat road to the north of Aleppo City. The objective is to cut the Army of Conquest's supply line into Turkey through Azaz in order to end their attempts to encircle and lay siege to Aleppo City.

April 18th 2016 (18/4/16) - The political arm of the Army of Conquest - the High Negotiations Committee (HNC) - withdraw from UN sponsored peace talks with the Syrian government in Geneva following a call by the head of the Army of Islam to strike at the necks of the infidels.

April 27th 2016 (27/4/16) - The propaganda arm of the Army of Conquest - the White Helmets - claim that the Al-Quds hospital in Aleppo City is destroyed in a Syrian government airstrike. They offer no evidence to support the claim of a Syrian government airstrike or even that the building was a medical facility as per the Geneva Conventions.

The #AleppoIsBurning campaign in launched and the UNSC swings into action. Under pressure the SAA is forced to suspend its operation to liberate the Tal Rifat road and the 214 Highway keeping the Army of Conquest's supply lines into Turkey open.

May 4th 2016 (4/5/16) -  The UNSC meets and Russia and the US agree that the SAA will cease its operations in Aleppo province.

The Army of Conquest celebrate by launching a sustained and indiscriminate artillery barrage on the Sheikh Masqoud district of Aleppo City which last for hours.

May 5th 2016 (6/5/16) - The Army of Conquest launch a fresh offensive to capture the village of Khan Tuman from the SAA in a further effort to seize the M5 Highway and lay siege to Aleppo City.

The only event from yesterday that the western media seem interested in covering though is the alleged Syrian government airstrike on the Kamouna camp for Internally Displaced People (IDP's) which is roughly 10km (6 miles) from Turkey's border with Syria. I used the term alleged here because despite certain parties seeming unshakable desire to blame the incident on the Syrian government there is actually little evidence at this point to indicate what happened.

All of the footage I have seen so far shows a tent camp badly damaged by fire. This could have been caused intentionally by someone armed with nothing more than matches or a cooking fire that got out of control. I noticed that the UNSC has not condemned France over the decision by its residents to set fire to the so-called Jungle refugee camp on February 29th (29/2/16).

However careful inspection of footage from the scene does reveal a single crater. This is very narrow but also very deep. This is consistent with a rocket or missile rather than a bomb.

Firing a rocket/missile from a jet aircraft actually requires some very complicated engineering. As a result air-fired missiles are very expensive. The top of the line "Hellfire" and "Brimstone" missiles that NATO nations use cost at least USD100,000 each. The Syrian government has been at war for the past 5 years and has been under an extensive arms embargo for much of that time. As a result it is unlikely that it possesses such a missile.

What is much more likely is that the damage at the Kamouna camp was caused by a surface fired missile such as a the Grad or the Katyusha. These are extremely common being used by all sides in the Syria conflict including in yesterday's Army of Conquest assault on Khan Tuman. However they only have a range of 20km (12 miles). There don't appear to be any SAA positions that close to the Kamouna camp.

Eyewitnesses on the ground of course all swear blind that they saw the missiles being fired from a Syrian government aircraft. 

Military jets travel at around 200km/h (120m/h) the missiles they fire accelerate away from them at similar speed. As such I find it difficult the track the launch of a missile from an aircraft when I'm sitting in a comfy chair in a quiet office with the ability to rewind and pause footage.

The area around Kamouna camp is controlled by Al Qaeda. I think it would be an extremely brave person who was to stand up an accuse the Al Qaeda fighter with the AK-47 standing next to them of lying.

It is also worth noting that eyewitnesses claimed to have seen a rocket being fired from a Syrian government aircraft into the Al Quds hospital on April 27th (27/4/16). Those events of course occurred at night. I know there is a lot of depleted uranium being fired about but I don't think we've quite got to the point where Syrian civilians have started to develop superpowers.  

At around 15:55 on 6/5/16 (UK date) I will try and pick this up later.

Edited at around 13:35 on 9/5/16 (UK date) to add;

Within the Army of Conquest coalition there is a sub-coalition known as the Syrian Turkmen Brigades (STB). This is essentially an irregular division of the Turkish army that operates illegally within Syria. 

As the Al Qaeda led portion of the Army of Conquest began its operation to encircle Aleppo City of April 1st (1/4/16) the STB portion launched its own operation east to capture the town of Cobaney which sits around 30km (20 miles) east of Azaz and 55km (30 miles) west of the Euphrates River. They succeeded in capturing Cobaney on April 8th (8/4/16).

However it then became apparent to the STB that they would not be permitted to advance from Cobaney across the Euphrates River to attack the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD). The QSD are a coalition of Arab, tribal and Assyrian forces alongside the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG). They have been by far the most effective non-governmental anti-ISIL force in Syria cutting ISIL off from a roughly 900km (540 mile) long stretch of the Turkish border. As a result the STB simply handed back control of Cobaney to ISIL erasing all of their recent gains.

This has caused substantial tension between the US and Turkey over the roughly 100km (60 mile) stretch of the Syrian/Turkish border between Azaz in the west and the Euphrates River in the east. This area has become known as "Erdogan's Pocket" and serves as the main supply route for both the Army of Conquest and ISIL into Turkey. It is rumoured the US recently gave Turkey the ultimatum that it had two weeks for remove the entire ISIL and Army of Conquest presence from that area or the QSD would be crossing the Euphrates to do it.

Although it is rumour rather than firm fact it seemed that ultimatum was due to expire just as the UNSC was being forced to reaffirm its commitment to the Army of Conquest by the #AleppoIsBurning campaign.

The STB's withdrawal from Cobaney has coincided with ISIL launching near daily rocket artillery strikes into the Turkish border town of Kilis which sits around 15km (9 miles) north of Azaz. Turkey has responded by returning fire. Although these exchanges of fire are of an extremely low level they allow Turkey to argue that it is fighting against rather than allied with ISIL. It also serves as a warning to YPG forces positioned just to the west that Azaz is within range of Turkish artillery and therefore they should not even think about liberating the area from ISIL.

The collusion between Turkey and Al Qaeda is of course well documented;

On January1st 2014 (1/1/14) the Turkish police stopped a number of trucks carrying weapons to Al Qaeda in Syria through the Hatay border crossing which is just to the west of the Syrian city of Idlib. On January 19th (19/1/14) Turkish police stopped a number of trucks carrying weapons to Al Qaeda in Syria as it was passing through the city of Adana.

It soon emerged that both these convoys of trucks belonged to Turkey's National Intelligence Organisation (MIT). In response Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan ordered the arrest of all the police officers, prosecuters and government officials involved in stopping the vehicles on charges of treason against Turkey. Erdogan also ordered the arrest of two Cumhuriyet newspaper journalists who reported on the story.

As I was writing the above on Friday (6/5/16) those journalists - Can Dundar & Erdem Gul - were being convicted of treason and both sentenced to five years in prison. As he was making his way into Court Dundar was attacked by a Erdogan supporter armed with a gun who tried to shoot and kill him.

The reason why the area between Azaz and the Euphrates is known as Erdogan's Pocket dates back to August 2015. Just after the YPG had succeeded in closing the 900km (540) stretch of the Syria/Turkey border to the east of the Euphrates and before they became the QSD Erdogan ordered the Al Qaeda portion of the Army of Conquest to cede the village of Marea to ISIL.  Marea sits roughly 20km (12 miles) south-east of Azaz. The intention being to preserve what was left of ISIL's supply lines and ultimately provide and excuse for a formal Turkish invasion of Syria in order to roll back the gains made by the YPG.

The Kamouna camp is located roughly 30km (18 miles) south of what is known as the Kurdish "Afrin Canton." What had Turkey screaming for a ceasefire back in January/February is that the YPG were advancing with Russian support from the Afrin Canton on Erdogan's Pocket. Turkey responded by shelling them when they reached the village of Tall Rifat which sits roughly 15km (9 miles) south of Azaz.

On Friday (6/5/16) Russia announced that its analysis of the damage at the Kamouna camp was consistent with a Grad or Katyusha type rocket artillery attack. Sometimes known as "Stalin's Organ" the Grad/Katyusha is of course a Russian weapons system. Russia also confrmed that its flight data monitoring revealed that there had been no aircraft in the area at the time of the attack. 

With Russia and the US sharing flight data in the area to avoid crashing into each this was intended to put pressure on the US to also confirm publically that there were no aircraft in the area.

The silence from the US on the matter has been deafening.

Turkey though has dramatically changed its tune;

Immediately after the attack and as recently as Saturday (7/5/16) Turkey was using the attack on the Kamouna camp as a reason why it should be allowed to invade Syria to set up safe zones to protect against Syrian government airstrikes. 

On Sunday (8/5/16) Turkey carried out artillery strikes against Al Qaeda rocket artillery launchers making the wholly incredible claim that they'd killed 55 fighters in the process. As such they were trying to use the attack on the Kamouna camp as a reason why it should be allowed to invade Syria to set up safe zones to protect against Al Qaeda rocket strikes.

The only constant is that Turkey really wants to invade Syria.    


14:42 on 9/5/16 (UK date).