Operation Featherweight: Month 21, Week 3, Day 7.

Having concentrated on the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant's (ISIL) main areas of operation in Syria and Iraq I need to take some time to focus on their third front: Europe.

On August 21st 2015 (21/8/15) a Moroccan member of ISIL - Ayoud El Khazzani - boarded a Thayls high speed train travelling through Belgium en route from the Netherlands to France. He carried with him an AK-47 assault rifle and a 9mm handgun along with 270 rounds of ammunition for both. He also carried with him a container of petrol. 

Shortly after boarding the train El Khazzani emerged from the toilets brandishing his weapons and started attack passengers. In the first carriage he entered his assault rifle jammed and he was confronted by two American passenger both of whom had military training and combat experience. With the help of other passengers they overpowered El Khazzani bringing his attack to an end.

Without that extraordinary good fortune El Khazzani would have been able to unleash one of the worst acts of violence seen in either the Netherlands, Belgium or France since the end of the Second World War. Even before you factor in the use of firearms an accelerant fire aboard a crowded train travelling at speeds approaching 300km/h (185mph) represents a significant threat to life.

Very early on in the investigation it became apparent that El Khazzani had been operating as part of a wider ISIL network. This network was headed by Abdelhamid Abaaoud and was based in the Molenbeek district of the Belgian capital Brussels. It had previously been linked to a March 24th 2014 (24/3/14) attack on a Jewish museum in Brussels in which four people were killed.

Despite this the Belgian authorities seemingly did very little to eradicate the ISIL network and the threat that it posed.

On November 13th 2015 (13/11/15) seven ISIL members attacked multiple targets in the French capital Paris including the Stade de France stadium and the Bataclan theatre with assault rifles, grenades and suicide bombs. During the course of these attacks they murdered 130 people.

Again the Paris massacres were quickly linked to the ISIL network headed by Abaaoud that was operating out of the Molenbeek district of Brussels. On November 18th (18/11/15) French police tracked Abaaoud to an apartment in the Saint-Denis district of Paris where he was killed in a raid. His right-hand man Saleh Abdeslam though was able to flee France back to Brussels.

Again the Belgian authorities seemingly did very little to eradicate the ISIL network and the threat that it posed despite being forced to deploy troops to the streets and introduce a nationwide lockdown due to that threat.

With nothing happening for several months on March 15th 2016 (15/3/16) the French police seemed to force the Belgian authorities hand by leading a joint raid on an apartment the Forest district of Brussels which is adjacent to the Molenbeek district where the ISIL were known to be based. 

During the raid French and Belgian police came under heavy, suppressing fire which allowed Abdeslam and another man to escape. After the gunman - Mohamed Belkaid - had been killed and the apartment searched the police discovered automatic weapons and detonators along with documents and flags linking the property to ISIL.

On March 18th (18/3/16) again as part of a French led operation Saleh Abdeslam was finally captured in Brussels. To the surprise of absolutely no-one he was found to be hiding in the Molenbeek district where local residents attacked police with rocks and petrol bombs in an effort to protect Abeslam.

Four days after the arrest of Abdeslam on Tuesday March 22nd (22/3/16) four ISIL members launched triple suicide bomb attacks against Brussels' Zaventerm Airport and the city's underground rail (Metro) system. 32 civilians were murdered in these attacks and a further 316 were wounded.

Again the Belgian authorities response to the worst ever terror attack on their country was lackadaisical at best.

Take for example their hunt for the fourth, surviving attacker who quickly became dubbed "The Man in the Hat."Initially the Belgian authorities identified this man as Faycal Cheffou and arrested him on March 24th (24/3/16).

"Faycal" is the Turkish spelling of the common Arabic name "Faisal." 

All of the attackers in Paris, Brussels and aboard the Thayls train had travelled through Turkey to join ISIL in Syria. They also all travelled back through Turkey to Europe before carrying out their attacks. 

One of the Zaventerm bombers in particular - Ibrahim El Bakraoui - seems to have been transported back to Europe by Turkey. Despite being a Belgian citizen he was deported back to the Netherlands at the end of June 2015. It took the Turkish authorities a further two weeks to notify the Belgians of this. That course of action by Turkey seemed intended to make it as difficult as possible for the Belgian authorities to intercept Ibrahim El Bakraoui on his return.

Four days prior to the Brussels attacks Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan gave a speech marking the end of the Gallipoli campaign in World War One. Although they won the battle this really marked the beginning of the end of the Ottoman Empire. The fact that Mustafa Kemal Ataturk who went on to form modern Turkey from the ashes of the Ottoman Empire is credited with the Gallipoli victory remains a source of anger for Erdogan's Justice & Development Party (AKP).

During his speech Erdogan spoke on the topic of terrorism and said simply; "Brussels will be next." Two days prior to the Brussels attacks on Sunday March 20th (20/3/16) Turkey dramatically called off the Istanbul football derby between Galatasaray and Fenerbahçe claiming that a terrorist attack was imminent. The day before the Brussels attacks on Monday March 21st (21/3/16) Turkey declared that it was aware of three ISIL suicide bombers who were about to launch an attack.

Cheffou is a self-styled citizen journalist. The rumour I've heard is that he was actually arrested outside police HQ whilst doing a report for his website about the manhunt for the Man in the Hat.

From the very start the war in Syria has been a propaganda war. 

One of the most high profile combatants in the early phases was a self-styled citizen journalist by the name of Danny Dayem. This British national just happened to be in the Syrian city of Homs when the fighting started equipped with semi-professional quality broadcasting equipment. His role was to provide gruesome footage of the aftermath of fighting that were then picked up to mainstream media outlets who broadcasted them to a wider audience. 

Dayem's 'reports' obviously didn't cover the context that had led up to the violence - such as the attacks against the Syrian police/military - and certainly didn't question whether any of the scenes had be faked. The professional media outlets such as CNN, BBC, ITN or Al Jazeera who really should know better re-broadcast Dayem's videos verbatim also without asking these basic questions about the credibility of Dayem's footage.

Dayem was far from alone in this effort. Almost immediately as the violence started western governments such as the US and the UK announced that they were sending no-lethal aid to the insurgents. By this they meant video cameras, audio recording equipment and satellite upload systems to aid the insurgents with the production of what is termed "Atrocity Propaganda." Under Hillary Clinton the US State Department even forced the Internet giant Google to provide special services to the insurgents.

Eventually these propaganda efforts developed into the Syrian Civil Defence (White Helmets) group who still provide most of the footage of Syrian government 'atrocities' to the western media.

The purpose of this atrocity propaganda was to radicalise the general public both domestically and in Syria against the Syrian government. 

As such it is undeniable that this propaganda war has also played a significant role in tricking European citizens - particularly Sunni Muslims - into joining ISIL and carrying out terror attacks against Europe.

Therefore the arrest of Faycal Cheffou seemed to provide a discreet way for those in the business to discuss these issues.

However four days later the Belgian authorities sensationally dismissed all charges against Cheffou and released him. This seemed to send the message that Belgium did not consider the discussed issues to be relevant and was dismissing them.

Obviously there is a strong possibility that the Belgians had simply arrested the wrong man. Even so they could certainly managed their mistake better. 

For example they could have held him for the maximum time allowed by law - around 1 week I think - and then released him on bail pending further investigations. Then they could have quietly dropped the matter either when the discussion had ended or they'd arrested the right person.

Last Friday (8/4/16) the Belgian authorities did arrest the actual Man in the Hat who they identified as Mohamed Abrini. Again to the surprise of absolutely no-one he was found hiding out in the Schaarbeek district of Brussels which is adjacent to the Molenbeek district. However the Belgians seem to have been reluctant to do even this.

Earlier in the day French authorities sensationally announced that they were releasing on bail another terror suspect. For the life of me I cannot remember this suspects name but he had driven Abrini to the airport to allow him to travel to join ISIL in the first place. Personally I think this reckless French decision was taken to protest US President Obama's far more reckless decision to effectively let Al Qaeda out on bail by resuming the Train & Equip program. 

However the Belgian authorities seemed to respond by going;  "If everyone knows where Abrini is hiding out we've got no choice other than to arrest him."

Having finally arrested him the speed at which the Belgian authorities made public the details of Abrini's interrogation was also surprising. Everybody who has undergone any level of counter-interrogation training - ISIL fighters certainly have - knows that eventually staying silent is not an option. Particularly when torture is involved. Therefore you've got to have a coherent cover story that you can 'reveal' to your interrogators in order to throw them off the scent.

Abrini's initially statements seem to be exactly of that nature. By claiming that the decision to attack Brussels had been taken at the last minute he seems to be trying to protect Turkey from further accusations of collusion. The claim that the Euro 2016 football tournament was the original target - a claim that was supported by the planted laptop - seemed intended to disrupt the tournament by increasing public fear. In short terrorism without the effort of actually having to launch an attack.

There are two possible explanations for the Belgian authorities lack of effort in response to the Brussels attacks.

Firstly Belgium has long been an aggressive supporter of both ISIL and the war against Syria. 

As a percentage of the population Belgium has contributed more recruits to ISIL than any other nation - including Syria and Iraq. This is the result of the Belgian intelligence services recruiting young Muslim men and then sending them to Syria. The main complaint of the "Mothers of Molenbeek" group is that when they would report their sons as potential ISIL recruits the Belgian authorities would step in to assist in sending them to Syria rather than trying to stop them.

Having radicalised and recruited these young men for what they see as "Their War" the Belgian intelligence services obviously don't view them as an enemy or a threat to national security. Instead they view them as returning heroes and are therefore opposed to imprisoning them let alone blocking their return to Belgium.

Obviously the people who will recruit fighters for ISIL don't see things like the Brussels attacks as a tragedy. Instead they see them as an opportunity to increase their budgets and introduce increasingly repressive security measures that make them more powerful. That obviously gives them no incentive to stop the attacks.

Secondly Belgium has long been a fractured country. One part is made up of French speakers while the other is made up of Flemish speakers. The Flemish regions desire for independence has caused long term political stability within Belgium. Between June 2010 and December 2011 the country was unable to form a government for 589 days - almost two full years. This is a World Record.

Whilst Belgium was without a government it was up to the civil service to keep the country running on a day-to-day basis. In order to avoid exceeding their authority and becoming a dictatorship Belgium's civil servants weren't able to introduce new policies on things like security. Instead they were limited to keeping the existing policies going no matter how outdated they'd become. 

Although Belgium does now have a government things remain fragile. This means that politicians are afraid of making bold decisions that would offend their coalition partners once again collapsing the government. Just this past week Belgium has opened a special prison wing for Islamist terrorists. This had been delayed for years and due to coalition wrangling has only been opened on condition that it holds no more than 4 prisoners at any one time.

Whatever the cause of the problem Belgium does need to rapidly sort itself out. Almost a month on from the Brussels attacks and five months on from the Paris Massacres NATO is still no closer to invoking its Article 5 mutual defence clause.

It is becoming increasingly clear that if ISIL are to be defeated and this terrorist threat lifted then US President Obama is going to need adult supervision. 

15:50 on 15/4/16 (UK date).