Operation Featherweight: Month 21, Week 2, Day 7.

On Sunday March 27th (27/3/16) a Turkish Presidential delegation began an almost unprecedented 7 day visit to the United States. This included a formal audience with US President Barack Obama at the White House on Thursday March 31st (31/3/16).

Under the pressure of this visit Obama crumbled and resumed the Turkish-led, US-backed Train & Equip program in support of insurgent groups fighting in Syria. The Train & Equip program of course had to be scrapped in October 2015 because it was in violation of various US laws. Particularly those relating the support of Al Qaeda and treason against the US.

We all should have known what the result of this latest failure by Obama would be. It's happened before.

The Train & Equip program was set up in September of 2014 almost as an apology for the US being forced to fight against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). Often within just hours of crossing into Syria these American trained and armed insurgents joined forces with Al Nusra Front (ANF) - Al Qaeda's affiliate in Syria.

Those who did not pledge allegiance to Al Qaeda directly joined them in the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition alongside other Islamic extremist groups such as the Islamic Movement of the Freemen of the Levant/Harakat Ahrar ash-Sham al-Islamiyya (Ahrar al-Sham), the Army of Islam/Jaish al-Islam (JAI) and the Syrian Turkmen Brigades (STB). The STB is a coalition within a coalition made up of groups like the Falcons of the Levant/Suqur al-Sham and the Levant Legion/Faylaq al-Sham.

With many of the leading members of the Army of Conquest sharing the same ideology as ISIL they obviously did not choose to fight against ISIL. Instead they fought alongside ISIL against the forces of the Syrian government - the Syrian Arab Army (SAA).

 In the spring of 2015 the Army of Conquest launched a large offensive across the north-west of Syria known as the "Northwestern Offensive." In the space of three months they advanced out of Aleppo province and captured vast swathes of Idlib and Hama provinces including the town of Jisr al-Shugur and the strategic Ariha-Latakia Highway.

The Army of Conquest's Northwestern Offensive was co-ordinated with ISIL who formed the fourth prong of the operation. This saw ISIL advance from the town of As Suknah to capture the central Syrian city of Palmyra in May 2015.

Fortunately in October 2015 Russia intervened and these Al Qaeda and ISIL gains were reversed with Palmyra being liberated on March 14th (14/3/16).

Whilst Obama was meeting Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the White House the boost that the resumption of Train & Equip had given to Al Qaeda was already becoming apparent. On Friday (1/4/16) the Army of Conquest advanced to capture the town of Tel Ais which overlooks Aleppo City.

On Tuesday (5/4/16) the STB part of the Army of Conquest coalition captured a number of small villages along Syria's border with Turkey. These villages act as a gateway for the town of Cobaney which sits around 50km (30 miles) west of the Euphrates River on a strategic road leading to Raqqa - ISIL de facto capital in Syria. Yesterday the STB continued their advance with the capture of the village of Al-Rai.

All of these recent STB advances have taken place in a roughly 100km (60 miles) stretch of the Syria/Turkey border between the town of Azaz in the east and the Euphrates River. This corridor is ISIL's main supply route with Turkey and has become known as "Erdogan's Pocket." In order to understand these STB advances you need to remember how Erdogan's Pocket came to be opened.

In June 2015 the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) liberated the Syrian border town of Tel Abyad from ISIL. This allowed the YPG to link the so-called "Kobane Canton" with the "Cizre Canton" establishing a roughly 630km (380 mile) wide buffer-zone between Turkey and ISIL between the Euphrates River the west and the Iraq/Iran border in the east. This obviously devastated ISIL's supply lines with Turkey.

So in August 2015 Turkey ordered the ANF and Ahrar al-Sham parts of the Army of Conquest coalition to cede control of the town of Marea to ISIL. This obviously immediately improved ISIL's supply lines with Turkey. However in the longer term Turkey hoped that the presence of ISIL so close to its border would provide it a pretext to invade Syria in order to fight alongside ISIL and Al Qaeda. 

The date of that invasion had even been set for December 16th 2015 (16/12/15). Fortunately international pressure prevented Turkey from going ahead. 

Since the opening of Erdogan's Pocket the YPG have joined forces with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) which is a coalition of moderate, non-Islamist Arab and Assyrian forces opposed to ISIL, the JAI and the Syrian government. As a result ISIL's continued occupation of the area between Azaz and the Euphrates is providing not an excuse for a Turkish invasion but putting pressure on Turkey to let the QSD advance seizing Erdogan's Pocket permanently cutting ISIL's supply lines with Turkey.

As such the STB offensive is simply ISIL returning the territory to the JAF in order to reduce pressure on Turkey and keep their supply lines open.

The problem with the STB is that they are not in any way Syrian. Their most famous member is a man called Alparslan Celik - the STB's spokesman who claimed credit for shooting down a Russian Su-24 on November 24th 2015 (24/11/15). 

Not only is Alparslan Celik Turkish his father - Ramazan Celik - is the former Mayor of the Keban area of Turkey representing the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP). Alparslan himself is known to be a member of the "Grey Wolves" - the paramilitary wing of the MHP.

The Grey Wolves are the driving force behind the STB. There are even rumours that fully uniformed and badged members of the Turkish Special Forces have been freely operating alongside the STB in its latest offensive.

As such the STB advances within Erdogan's Pocket are nothing more than a Turkish invasion of Syria by other means. It will do absolutely nothing of inhibit ISIL supply lines with Turkey. It is actually likely to improve them slightly by reducing the distance ISIL supplies will have to travel accross open ground close to the prying eyes of the media on Turkey's border.

The MHP were formed by NATO during the Cold War to counter the influence of the Kurdistan Worker's Party (PKK). Turkey has repeatedly made it quite clear that it sees no difference between the PKK, the YPG and the QSD along with an ever growing, bizarre list of groups which since last Saturday (2/4/16) now includes the Armenian Secret Army for the Liberation of Armenia (ASALA).

Therefore it should be obvious to all that the STB's offensive is intended to remove the QSD buffer-zone re-opening a larger supply line between Turkey and ISIL.

The STB and the JAF's true objective couldn't be made more clear by their repeated combined attacks on the Sheikh Masqood district of Aleppo City. This particular district of the city is not under the control of ISIL, JAF or even the SAA. Instead this Kurdish area is under the protection of a deployment of the YPG that Turkey has forbidden from linking up with the QSD.

Since Saturday (2/4/16) the Sheikh Masqood district has come under relentless rocket and artillery fire from the JAF - particularly the STB. As of last night the civilian death toll of these attacks stands at over 30 dead.

Yesterday (8/4/16) the attacks on the Sheikh Masqood district escalated dramatically when rockets containing a chemical weapons agent were fired by JAF into the area. Obviously there is no suggestion that Turkey or the US would permit the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) to collect samples to confirm exactly what chemical weapons agents were used. However the footage and injuries reported strongly suggest a mixture of Chlorine and Sulphur Mustard gases.

The use of chemical weapons against civilians is a very clear war crime and possibly a crime against humanity. As such swift action needs to be taken to remove the option for the attacks to be repeated. Due to the need to destroy the chemical weapon agents the use of incendiary weapons such as Napalm and White Phosphorous is not only permitted but required.

However the US' initial response to these attacks was to attempt to deny that it had taken place. This denial took the form of a fire at the ExxonMobil chemical plant in Baytown, Texas. As a result US authorities are said to be monitoring the air in order for them to confirm that no dangerous chemicals were released.

Unfortunately for the US as the diplomatic backlash was mounting and they were preparing to ignite their trousers in denial the Army of Islam (JAI) part of the JAF coalition announced that they had used chemical weapons against Kurdish civilians. They went on to claim that it was the actions of a rogue commander whom the promised to punish. The conventional attacks however continued and continue as I write.

This is of course also nothing we haven't seen before from the JAI.

Back in June 2015 the Army of Islam were leading an Army of Conquest offensive against the Druze ethnic minority close to the Syrian Golan Heights. During this time the JAI conducted a number of massacres of Druze, Shia Muslims and Christians. Facing growning pressure from its own Druze population this prompted the Israelis to give the JAI the cold, hard Clint Eastwood star. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recreated this moment during his speech to the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in October 2015.

Knowing what the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) are capable of the JAI promptly stopped both the massacres and the offensive. In response the Israelis diplomatically declined to labour the point.

Curiously the Army of Islam are included in the Geneva talks as one of the "moderate opposition" groups.

The US seemed very upset by the JAI's admission of guilt. So overnight we were treated to a bizarre police chase in Los Angeles, California in which the escaping criminals stopped to perform stunts for the TV cameras and pose with passers-by for selfies. This is going to lead to a very short trial and it will require a Presidential pardon from Barack Obama himself to keep them out of prison for a very long time.

As within the spring of 2015 this renewed offensive by the JAF has occured in tandem with a renewed offensive by ISIL.

On Wednesday (6/5/16) ISIL launched an attack on the Al Badia Cement company, near the town of Dumeir, 30 miles northeast of the capital Damascus. During the course of that attack they kidnapped 200 workers. Today comes the news that ISIL have massacred 175 of those captives simply for being Shia Muslims.

In terms of these renewed JAF/ISIL offensives will have on any peace process we already know. It was shown to us in the incident that triggered the Russian miliary build-up in Syria to become a combat operation.

Throughout much of September 2015 the United Nations (UN) had been trying to broker a localised ceasefire that would allow humanitarian aid into and civilians out of the villages of Fuaa and Kafraya. Sitting around 5km (3 miles) outside Idlib City these Shia villages had been besieged by the JAF since its Northwestern Offensive. The ceasefire was scheduled to take effect and the evacuations begin on September 25th 2015 (25/9/15).

However days before the US declared that the Syrian government was on the brink of being overthrown. The JAF took this to mean that there was no need for them to participate in any ceasefire negotiations because they would soon be free to exterminate their opponents. So they scrapped the ceasefire and Russia was forced to intervene to prevent yet another massacre.

As such if there is to be any form of peace in Syria it is clear that Obama is going to have to move quickly to cauterise the wound he has once again decided to open.

15:05 on 8/4/16 (UK date).

Edited at around 11:10 on 9/4/16 (UK date): 

Not only wasn't spell check working whilst writing this my Internet connection cut out about half a dozen times. So I've gone back and tidied it up a bit. For example the Army of Islam/Jaish al-Islam (JAI) are just one part of the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition.