Operation Featherweight: Month 21, Week 3, Day 5.

Today Syrians are going to the polls in a Parliamentary election.

If you've believed the western narrative of the Syria conflict being about an oppressed minority bravely protesting for democracy only to be cut down by a brutal dictatorship this is obviously quite difficult to understand.

However that narrative has always ignored the fact that Syria has long been one of the most democratic Arab nations in the Middle-East. Despite the civil war over the past five years the nation has tried to continue holding elections in accordance with its secular constitution.

The last Parliamentary election took place on May 7th 2012 (7/5/12) saw a 51% voter turn out which resulted in 8 parties and 77 independents being elected to Parliament with the Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party securing a majority of 134 seats. The last Presidential election took place on June 3rd 2014 (3/6/14). It was contested by 24 candidates and saw a 73% voter turn out. The incumbent Bashar al-Assad was re-elected with 88% of votes cast.

Obviously the fact that Bashar al-Assad and the Ba'ath Party keep winning elections by popular vote presents a huge problem for the coalition of nations calling for the overthrow of Assad and the Syrian government. So they have moved to block this latest election by resuming the Geneva negotiations today.

Due to the elections the Syrian government delegation will not be attending the start of those talks. As such it seems the main topic of conversation during the first few days will be about how the foreign coalition can keep Assad and the Ba'ath Party off of any future ballots so the Syrian people don't have the option of re-electing them.

An area where Syrians will be prevented from voting for the Ba'ath Party or indeed any party at this is election is the north-western region of the country where fighting has resumed in the run-up to the election.

A large part of this renewed fighting has focused on the border between Idlib and Latakia provinces as the Islamist Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition try to capture positions in the Latakia mountains from the Syrian government.

Although fierce this renewed fighting doesn't seem to be yielding much in the way of results for either side in an area where fighting low ago slowed into the meat grinder of trench warfare. For example on Monday (11/4/16) the JAF advanced a few hundred metres/yards on villages centred around Agcabayir. Today the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) seems to have recovered the ground amid heavy artillery barrages by both sides.

The Army of Conquest coalition seem to be making more progress in Aleppo province. Here they have been steadily amassing some 10,000 fighters in the villages and fields surrounding the provincial capital - Aleppo City. Their objective seems to be cut the main M5 Highway running through Hama and Homs cities to Damascus - the Syrian capital. This will allow them to lay siege to the city.

Just before the February ceasefire came into effect at the time the SAA liberated the M5 Highway horror stories began to circulate about the humanitarian disaster that would unfold should Aleppo City be placed under siege by the SAA. If Aleppo City were to be placed under siege by the Army of Conquest the humanitarian catastrophe is likely to be much worse. The villages of Fuaa and Kafraya and the city of Deir ez-Zour have shown us what happens when civilian populations are placed under siege by JAF and their Islamist associates.

Fortunately on Sunday (10/4/16) the United Nations did finally see fit to deliver humanitarian aid to civilians trapped in Deir ez-Zour. They have also belatedly identified the need to deliver humanitarian aid to the Iraqi city of Fallujah where civilians are starving to death under siege from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).

The far worse situation would arise if the Army of Conquest were allowed to enter Aleppo City.

The largest faction within the JAF coalition is Al Qaeda's Syrian affiliate the Al Nusra Front (ANF). Whenever they advance into an area massacres immediately follow. Just a quick Google search reveals the December 2013 Adra massacre where ANF slaughtered 100 Shia Muslim, Christian and Druze civilians in the town of Adra. The Qalib Loze massacre where 24 Druze were slaughtered in June 2015. The Abu al-Duhur massacre where ANF slaughtered 56 Shias in September 2015.

The actions of another significant faction within the Army of Conquest coalition - the Army of Islam/Jaish al-Islam (JAI) - are even more horrific. 

In June of 2015 the JAI went on a rampage through numerous Shia, Christian and Druze villages in south-western Syria close to the Golan Heights killing hundreds of civilians. During this time they also released a propaganda video showing them executing members of ISIL on the grounds that ISIL were not doing enough to exterminate Syria's religious and ethnic minorities. This killing spree was only brought to an end when neighbouring Israel threatened to intervene to end it under pressure from its own domestic Druze population.

The Army of Islam have already given us a clear statement of intent of what they will do if they are allowed to enter Aleppo City. 

On April 8th (8/4/16) the JAI launched a barrage of rockets containing chemical weapons agents in the Kurdish Sheikh Masqood neighbourhood of Aleppo City. They immediately claimed responsibility for this war crime claiming that it was the work of a rogue commander who would be punished. Yesterday (12/4/16) the Army of Islam launched another chemical weapons attack - believed to be Chlorine gas - against civilians in the Sheikh Masqood neighbourhood.

The Army of Islam is of course attending today's talks in Geneva as a "moderate opposition group."

Fortunately the JAF's advance has reached the point where it is now putting them in contact with the SAA. Yesterday (12/4/16) the SAA were able to liberate the town of Al-Eis on the outskirts of Aleppo City reducing the pressure on the M5 Highway keeping supply lines into the city open.

The reason for this recent resumption of fighting and the Army of Conquest coalition's strength in Aleppo province is the 100km (60 miles) stretch of territory along Syria's border with Turkey between Azaz in the west and the Euphrates River they control. Known as "Erdogan's Pocket" this is JAF and ISIL's main supply route in and out of Turkey. It was declared re-opened on March 28th (28/3/16) when the US Train & Equip program was resumed during an official Turkish visit to the US.

Over the last couple of days ISIL and Turkey have taken to exchanging light artillery fire between Azaz in Syria and Kilis in Turkey. The purpose of this fire has been to convince the outside world that Turkey and ISIL are enemies rather then allies in order to reduce pressure for the Erdogan's Pocket supply line to be closed.

For its part the US seems focused on exerting pressure on Russia to not assist the SAA in pushing the Army of Conquest all the way back from Aleppo City. 

Yesterday (12/4/16) an unnamed CIA official gave an off the record briefing in which it was claimed that US President Barack Obama is seriously considering giving Man-Portable Air Defences Systems (MANPADS) - capable of shooting down civilian passenger jets - to Al Qaeda in order to allow them to seize Aleppo City.

Also yesterday (12/4/16) ISIL were able to seize control of around 80-90% of the Yarmouk camp for Palestinian refugees in the suburbs of Damascus. This of course provides further evidence of the collusion between the Army of Conquest and ISIL because the ANF faction of the JAF who were in control of Yarmouk simply switched allegiance and joined ISIL. 

You may remember that the last time ISIL seized control of Yarmouk it triggered a humanitarian crisis so severe that a special campaign had to be launched by the United Nations Relief Works Agency (UNRWA). 

16:40 on 13/4/16 (UK date).