Operation Featherweigh: Month 21, Week 2, Day 5.

On March 14th (14/3/16) Russia announced that it was reducing the number of its forces in Syria.

However it made quite clear that it would be maintaining its presence at the Tartus Naval Base and at the Khmeimim Air Base along with a complete of Special Forces operators to fight the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and associated groups.

On March 27th (27/3/16) that continuing Russian support paid off when the Syria Arab Army (SAA) liberated the city of Palmyra from ISIL following several weeks of intense fighting. As has become a standard tactic of theirs ISIL left behind a city littered with landmines and Improvised Explosives Devices (IED's).

This prompted Russia to announce on March 28th (28/3/16) that it will deploy specialist engineering units to de-mine the city following consolations with  the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation (UNESCO) which list Palmyra as a World Heritage site. As of today the Russian specialists have cleared more than 1,500 mines and IED's from Palmyra.

It is testament to how delusional much of the news coverage of the Syria conflict has become that on Saturday (2/4/16) America's Fox News ran a story about the Russian mine clearance operation in Palmyra. What is strange is that they tried to present it as Russia going back on its word and secretly maintaining its presence in Syria.

That is despite Russia making it quite clear that it won't be withdrawing all of its forces from Syria and publicly announcing the deployment of combat engineers to Palmyra. Fox News' source for this 'expose' was that the Palmyra deployment was the main item on every Russian news outlet.

Despite the complexity of having to de-mine Palmyra the SAA with Russian backing have continued their fight against ISIL.

On Thursday (31/3/16) they succeeded in liberating the town of Qaryatan. This sits on the Highway 7 supply route some 95km (60 miles) south-west of Palmyra and around 70km (45 miles) south-east of Homs City. It also sits approximately 105km (60 miles) north-east of the capital Damascus. As such its liberation puts the SAA in control of the triangle between Damascus, Homs and Palmyra consolidating their control of the area in preparation for an operation to break the siege on Deir ez-Zour.

It almost goes without saying that ISIL has not taken the liberations of Palmyra and Qaryatan in good grace.

On Monday (4/4/16) they launched a barrage of artillery and rocket fire on SAA and civilian positions in city. These attacks employed some form of chemical weapon agent. Obviously with the city under siege it is difficult to determine exactly what type of chemical weapon was used but casualties are reporting symptoms consistent with Sulphur Mustard Gas.

Despite Russian air-drops the humanitarian situation within Deir ez-Zour remains dire. However for some reason the city was not included in a United Nations Security Council (UNSC) briefing on the humanitarian situation yesterday (5/4/16). Nor was the situation in the Iraqi city of Fallujah where over the past week they have reported children beginning to die of starvation.

In light of these Russian backed gains the US' anti-ISIL operations once again seem to be suffering from envy.

On Monday (4/4/16) the US announced that it will be following Russia's lead in Palmyra and deploying its own explosive specialists to de-mine the Iraqi city of Ramadi. This announcement comes more than three months after the city which sits around 100km (60 miles) west of the Iraqi capital Baghdad was liberated from ISIL on December 28th 2015 (28/12/15).

The day before on Sunday (3/4/16) it was announced that Radwan Nammous (AKA: "Abu Firas al-Suri") had been killed in an air-strike just north-west of the Syrian city of Idlib. Having fought alongside Osama bin Laden in Afghanistan from 1979 through to the US' invasion in 2001 Nammous is considered a senior leader within Al Qaeda. He was dispatched to Syria in 2012 to lead Al Nusra Front (ANF) - Al Qaeda's Syrian affiliate.

There is actually significant debate as to whether Nammous was killed by an American or a Syrian/Russia air-strike. However the US has been keen to claim it in the hope that a single high profile assassination will distract from the complete lack of progress in the fight against ISIL when compared to Russia's efforts.

Within Iraq that US-led anti-ISIL effort is still going nowhere fast.

In a small sign of progress on Thursday (31/3/16) the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) backed the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) - began to advance from Ramadi on the ISIL controlled town of Hit. This sits roughly 45km (30 miles) north-west of Ramadi along the Euphrates River and around 65km (40 miles) south-west of the government controlled town of Haditha.

Perhaps more crucially Hit sits around 35km (20 miles) south-east of the Ain Assad Air Base where several hundred US troops are stationed to train Iraqi forces. As such the liberation of Hit would greatly increase Iraqi control of the area between Haditha and Ramadi marking significant progress in the liberation of Anbar province. It would also greatly reduce ISIL's ability to launch attacks against US troops stationed at Ain Assad.

Today (6/4/16) the ISF have announced that they have succeeded in surrounding Hit and are preparing to enter the town shortly. However they are also reporting that once again ISIL is not making a concerted effort to defend Hit instead choosing to melt away to launch guerrilla style attacks from Saladin province to the north of Baghdad.

This is a particular problem because Saladin province should have been liberated along with the provincial capital Tikrit back in the spring of 2015. However that operation was never completed properly before everyone rushed off to liberate all of Anbar province. As such it seems to be becoming increasingly apparent that Iraqi territory isn't really being liberated from ISIL. Instead ISIL are just being moved from one part of Iraq to another.

Despite neither the Anbar operation nor the Saladin operation being completed the US has encouraged the Iraqis to start yet another operation to liberate Mosul City.

Seemingly influenced only by the Russia backed liberation of Palmyra on March 24th (24/3/16) this operation began with an offensive to liberate a number of small villages overlooking the Tigris River. These barely mapped villages centred around al-Nasr (Nasser) sit between Mosul City and what is known as the Makhmur frontline just outside the Kurdish town of Makhmur.

Almost immediately this operation bogged down amid a mixture of bad weather and uncharacteristically stiff resistance from ISIL. However on Monday (4/4/16) the ISF entered al-Nasr. Unfortunately they were immediately forced to surrender the village back to ISIL. The operation currently seems to be on hold while the US and the Iraqis consider their next move.

As I've said numerous times before I think the next step is suspend the Mosul operation in favour of adopting defensive positions along the Makhmur front at least until the Anbar operation has been completed. Beyond the looming humanitarian disaster the fact that Fallujah remains under ISIL occupation alone presents a significant problem.

Monday (4/4/16) was a particularly bloody day in Iraq with co-ordinated suicide bombings striking across the capital Baghdad and the near-by town of Abu Ghraib. The targets of these attacks that killed around 25 were not only Shia neighbourhoods but also specifically members of the Shia militias that are known collectively as the Popular Mobilisation Forces. (PMF).

As with most bombings in Iraq the primary purpose of the attacks was to increase sectarian division. ISIL's thinking being that Iraq's Shias - particularly the PMF - will be angered and react aggressively. This will then be used as reason by the US why the PMF can't participate in anti-ISIL operations - particularly in the Sunni dominated Anbar province where the PMF are currently banned from operating. This is course protects ISIL by reducing the forces that can be brought to bear against them including one of the most effective.

What stood out about this wave of attacks is that it included a seventh target in the centre of the city of Basra where 5 people were killed. This is significant because Basra sits around 465km (280 miles) south-east of Baghdad far beyond where ISIL have been previously able to operate.

So although a single suicide bombing is significantly different from being able to militarily capture and occupy a city this was ISIL trying to show that far from being defeated they are capable of projecting their power into areas of Iraq that they've previously been unable to reach.

It seems extremely likely that these attacks have been prepared and co-ordinated from within Fallujah. Therefore making the liberation of that city a priority would not only relieve the pressure on the capital Baghdad and improve the situation for the civilians trapped there. It would also deny ISIL this type of propaganda victory.

The most significant US failing of late though has been Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan's ridiculously long visit to the US last week. Particularly the way it seems to have triggered the resumption of the US' Train & Equip program.

At around 17:30 on 6/4/16 (UK date) I'll be back to deal with that after dinner.

Edited at around 18:50 on 6/4/16 (UK date) to add;

The first indication that the Train & Equip program had resumed came on Sunday (27/3/16) night when Russian aerial surveillance observed three armed pick-up trucks (Technicals) crossing the border from Turkey into Syria. The vehicles were tracked to an area just outside the Syrian town of Azaz which has become a vast logistics hub for Al Qaeda's Syrian affiliate Al Nusra Front (ANF).

Obviously the US is so proud of this development they have not formally commented on it let alone confirmed it. They certainly haven't confirmed whether this was indeed the first such deployment or whether there have been subsequent deployments.

ANF clearly took these fresh supplies as a sign that they now enjoy the full support of the US. The effect of this was almost immediate and resoundingly negative.

On Friday (1/4/16) ANF alongside their allies the Islamic Movement of the Freemen of the Levant/Harakat Ahrar ash-Sham al-Islamiyya (Ahrar al-Sham) and the Syrian Turkmen Brigades (STB) advanced to capture the village of Tel Al-Ais which overlooks Aleppo City. On this occasion they did fight a small, staged battle battle with ISIL. However it is clear that this Al Qaeda-led coalition known as the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF)'s ultimate objective is the capture of Aleppo City.

A clearer indication of the JAF's true objective was provided on Saturday (2/3/16). Here fighters from the exclusively STB part of the JAF coalition launched attacks on the SAA on the border between Aleppo and Latakia provinces that the SAA had liberated from the STB at the end of January. These attacks mark a clear violation of any ceasefire agreement even if you believe that groups allied to Al Qaeda were in any way covered by a ceasefire.

On Sunday (3/4/16) members of the JAF including ANF, Ahrar al-Sham and the STB announced that they were exploring a joint operation to capture Aleppo City. This was quite a bizarre announcement because I don't think any serious analyst believed that the JAF coalition had disbanded.

On Tuesday (5/4/16) the STB made quite clear what the JAF's true objective in the capture of Aleppo City is when they captured villages surrounding the border town of Cobaney which sits around 20km (12 miles) east of Azaz. 

The STB declared that if they are successful in the capture of Cobaney they will continue their advance east to the Euphrates River. Their objective can only be to prevent a westwards advance by the US supported Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) to ensure that the supply corridor between Azaz and the Euphrates known as "Erdogan's Pocket" remains open. 

Since Saturday (2/4/16)'s capture of Tel Al-Ais the STB faction of the JAF coalition have been raining artillery and rocket fire down on Aleppo City. Their target certainly hasn't been the portions of the city held by the JAF coalition partners of ANF or Ahrar al-Sham. It hasn't even been directed on the portions of the city held by the SAA.

Instead the STB's fire has been directed exclusively at the Kurdish Sheikh Maqsood neighbourhood of the city which is controlled by the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) - a key partner in the US supported QSD coalition. In the four days of bombardment 11 civilians have been killed including a 12 year old child and a further 38 have been wounded.

As such it is clear that Train & Equip has resumed exactly where it had to be abandoned because it was a disaster serving only to strengthen ISIL and Al Qaeda.

Today US President Barack Obama met with American military leaders. Hopefully they explained to him the difference between a lawful order that he can issue and they can follow and an unlawful that they cannot.  

19:50 on 6/4/16 (UK date).