Operation Featherweight: Month 21, Week 3, Day 3.

I should start with some good news from Iraq.

On Saturday (9/3/16) the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) continued their liberation of Hit by entering the centre of the city. Today they have confirmed that they have secured full control of that city centre. This brings them closer to taking full control of both the city and the Highway 12 road that runs through it linking the Ain al-Assad Air Base around 35km (20 miles) to the north-west with the recently liberated city of Ramadi around 50km (30 miles) to the south-east.

The slow and steady pace of the operation seems not to come from particularly stiff resistance by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). Instead the ISF seem to be operating methodically in order to minimise the risk to Hit's civilian population and damage to the city itself. ISIL's main tactic seems to be to prevent civilians leaving the city by placing landmines and Improvised Explosive Devices (IED's) on the roads out of the city in order to target fleeing civilians and slow the ISF advance. Just today 6 people were killed and a further 12 wounded when an ISIL suicide bomber attacked civilians as they were escaping Hit.

Elsewhere in Iraq the operation was launched on March 24th (24/3/16) to liberate the villages centred around al-Nasr (Nasser) that sit between the Makhmour frontline and the city of Mosul now seems to be permanently on hold. Again I consider this to be a good thing because the US ordered operation seemed to be launched in order to steal headlines away from the Russian-backed liberation of Palmyra on March 27th (27/3/16) rather than for any legitimate strategic military reason. The ISF's seeming inability to fully finish one operation before starting another one has been a growing problem in efforts to liberate Iraq from ISIL.

A prime example of this has been the area of Saladin province between the provincial capital Tikrit, the town of Baiji 50km (30 miles) to the north and the city of Kirkuk 110km (65 miles) north-east of Tikrit which has become known as the "Hawija Triangle." Despite Tikrit being officially liberated back in the spring of 2015 ISIL was never fully expelled from the Hawija Triangle and they actually appear to be re-grouping in Saladin province after being forced out of Anbar province and the provincial capital Ramadi.

At the US' insistence the Shia militia's that are collectively known as the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) have been denied permission to participate in the liberation of the predominately Sunni Anbar province. They have also been denied permission to participate in the Makhmour operation. Finding themselves at a bit of a loose end on Sunday (10/4/16) the PMF decided to launch an operation of their own to drive ISIL out of the village of Bashir. This sits around 25km (15 miles) south-west of Kirkuk.

More crucially though Bashir sits around 8km (5 miles) south-west of the town of Taza and has been used to launch attacks on Taza's civilian population for almost two years now. This includes the chemical weapons attack of March 12th (12/3/16) that sparked mass protests.

As such this operation seems to be a particularly good use of the PMF's time. However only if it is intended as a defensive operation to force ISIL out of range of Taza's civilians rather than a larger operation to liberate Bashir and the surrounding area. That type of operation will require much more careful planning and again shouldn't be attempted while the Anbar operation is still ongoing.

To give you an idea of the complexity of such a wider operation it would appear that in the first day of the operation against Bashir alone the PMF have met stiff resistance from ISIL with around 100 PMF fighters being reported as killed, wounded or missing.

Despite the progress being made in Iraq the situation across the border in Syria seems to be deteriorating.

Turkish irregular forces known collectively as the "Syrian Turkmen Brigades (STB)" have continued their advances in an area known as "Erdogan's Pocket." Stretching for some 100km (60 miles) along Syria's border with Turkey between the town of Azaz in the west and the Euphrates River in the east this has become ISIL's main supply route with Turkey and something that Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan has become desperate to keep open.

On April 5th (5/4/16) the STB launched an offensive to expand their presence within Erdogan's Pocket by capturing a number of villages centred around Al-Rai which act as a gateway to the town of Cobaney. This sits right on the border with Turkey around 50km (30 miles) west of the Euphrates and controls a road that runs to Raqqa - ISIL's de facto capital in Syria. On Saturday (9/4/16) the STB entered Cobaney and declared themselves to be in control of the town.

However today is seems that the STB have ceded control of not just Cobaney but also Al-Rai and the surrounding villages back to ISIL.

In light of events since Saturday this could be an attempt to portray the STB as an opponent rather than an ally of ISIL. After all when Erdogan ordered the town of Marea to be ceded to ISIL back in August 2015 opening up Erdogan's Pocket there was a small amount of fighting in order to avoid it looking like control of the area being divided up between allies. However it may also be an early indication that the STB is to terminate its operation and Turkey is slowly coming to terms with the fact that Erdogan's Pocket is to be closed permanently.

Hopefully it is the latter because the STB operate as part of a wider coalition of extremist groups known as the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF). Alongside the STB this includes Al Qaeda's affiliate Al Nusra Front (ANF), the Islamic Movement of the Freemen of the Levant/Harakat Ahrar ash-Sham al-Islamiyya (Ahrar al-Sham) and the particularly extreme Army of Islam/Jaish al-Islam (JAI).

On March 28th (28/3/16) US President Barack Obama took the highly questionable decision to re-start the US' Train & Equip program to train and equip JAF at the start of an official Turkish visit to the US. Even before that week long visit had ended on April 3rd (3/4/16) the JAF took this as US permission to resume offensive operations in Syria's Aleppo province launching attacks on the frontlines with both Latakia and Homs provinces.

However the Army of Conquest's main focus seemed to be the Kurdish Sheikh Masqood neighbourhood of Aleppo City which is under the protection of the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) - the main anti-ISIL force within Syria. Since April 2nd (2/4/16) this Kurdish area has come under sustained rocket and artillery fire by the JAF coalition. This onslaught included the April 8th (8/4/16) chemical weapons attack.

This renewed fighting poses a somewhat interesting question of whether the ceasefire that came into effect on February 26th (26/2/16) remains in effect or whether the US, Turkey and their Army of Conquest coalition have completely violated it rendering void.

On the one hand it has always been agreed that this ceasefire has never applied to ISIL, ANF or any other individual, group, undertaking or entity associated with either ISIL or ANF. The JAF are very clearly a group, undertaking or entity associated with ANF having fought alongside them for more than a year. So technically the ceasefire never applied to JAF in this area of north-western Syria or anywhere else in the World.

However this fresh JAF offensive over the past two weeks has certainly brought renewed fighting to an area where there had been no fighting since the end of February.

This obviously places great pressure on Turkey to show that it is part of the international coalition fighting against terrorism rather than a state sponsor of terrorism fighting against that international coalition. In the past Turkey has tried denying that it is supporting terrorism by staging bomb attacks against itself. The purpose being to show that it is a victim of terrorism that the international community should rally behind.

At the risk of boring everyone to tears I've recently started going back to the gym. At this early stage this requires a degree of forward planning. Not only do I need to find time to actually go to the gym I've also got to schedule recovery time in order to avoid getting injured. Last Wednesday (6/4/16) I was debating whether to go to the gym next on Friday (8/4/16) or yesterday (11/4/16). A large part of my decision was based on a presumption that Turkey would carry out its next bombing on Sunday (11/4/16) and I would have to deal with it today.

Across much of the Middle-East region including Israel the weekend is based on Jewish and Islamic law running from Friday to Saturday making Sunday the first day of the working week. In much of the rest of the World including Turkey the weekend runs from Saturday to Sunday making Monday the first day of the working week. Starting the working week on a Sunday by carrying out a bomb attack allows Erdogan's Justice & Development Party (AKP) to subtly show off their Islamist credentials.

Plus yesterday in particular Turkish Embassies staged anti-terrorism demonstrations across a number of European cities. Particularly in Germany and Belgium. Obviously though the "terrorism" the Turkish government was protesting about was the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) and the increasingly long and bizarre list of groups they claim are linked to the PKK. A faked terror attack on Turkey during those demonstrations would certainly have given the Turkish government plenty of opportunity to say; "We told you so."

It seems though I wasn't the only one aware of this and on Friday (8/4/16) Israel issued a warning to its citizens to leave Turkey because of an impending attack. In turn this prompted the US to issue a similar warning on Saturday (9/4/16). This mounting pressure seemed to have an effect with Turkey cancelling Sunday's big spectacular in favour of the small explosion of a stun grenade in Istanbul on Saturday.

At around 17:20 on 11/4/16 (UK date) I will be back to deal with that more fully.

Edited at around 18:40 on 11/4/16 (UK date) to add;

Rather than making any definitive statement this incident was intended more to pose questions.

It is debatable whether setting off a stun grenade counts as a terror attack so much as a public nuisance. However if you view it as an attack then its intended target was a bus/tram stop outside Trump Towers.

The significance of a bus/tram stop being targeted is the series of suicide bombings that struck bus/tram stops in the Russian city of Volgograd at the end of 2013 in the run up to the 2014 Winter Olympics that were held in near-by Sochi. By escalating the the conflict over the Nagorno-Karabkh region it is clear that Turkey intends to repeat this model to punish Russia for its opposition to ISIL, ANF and their associates in Syria.

On Friday (8/4/16) the Russian security services arrested an ISIL linked terror group - "Pallasovsky Assembly/Pallasovsky Jamaat" who were planning attacks in the Volgograd. The implication being that this group was supported by and working in conjunction with the Turkish government. Saturday's explosion provided Turkey with an opportunity to poll international reaction to this development.

The significance of Trump Towers being targeted is of course Donald Trump - the building's owner and presumptive Republican nominee for the 2016 US Presidential election.

Back in December 2015 presumptive Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton claimed that groups like ISIL and their associates were using Donald Trump as a recruiting tool. She was promptly humilated when she was asked to provide evidence to support this claim and was unable to do so.

In January 2016 the Al Qaeda linked Somali terror group Al-Shabaab decided to do Hillary a favour by releasing a propaganda video featuring footage of Donald Trump. Following the March 22nd (22/3/16) attacks in Brussels, Belgium ISIL followed suit and also released a video featuring Donald Trump.

In short groups like ISIL and their associates are actively campaigning for Hillary Clinton because she gave them so much support during her 2008-12 spell as Secretary of State.

By setting this explosion outside Trump Towers the Turks were obviously trying assess reaction to this while giving Hillary a little bit more support.

The people who are most opposed to Donald Trump are the American and European left. The image that the Turkish government is trying to present both to its domestic population and the wider world is that it is under attack from a conspiracy of far left groups led by the PKK and backed by the Soviet Union - Erdogan seems unaware that Russia hasn't been the Soviet Union for a very long time.

One of the larger groups that Erdogan claims is in league with the vast PKK/Russian conspiracy is the Revolutionary People's Liberation Party–Front (DHKP-C). A revolutionary Marxist-Leninist group who incorporate the Soviet Hammer & Sickle in their logo the DHKP-C are about as hard left as you can get. They tend to base their operations in and around Istanbul. Therefore an attack on Trump Towers in Istanbul seems intended to make people think the DHKP-C were responsible.

Today ISIL linked terrorist carried out an unsuccessful suicide attack in Stavropol which is in southern Russia on the edge of the Caucus region that includes Chechnya, Dagestan and Ingushetia. Here three attackers tried to force their way into a police station before detonating their suicide bombs. The attackers succeeded in killing no-one but themselves making this less of a suicide attack and more just a suicide.

It is debatable whether the DHKP-C have ever really existed. However certainly since the collapse of the Soviet Union they have only existed as an extension of the Turkish intelligence services. They serve as a sort of bogeyman justifying Turkey's security state.

Following a long period of silence the DHKP-C suddenly returned with a suicide bombing at at police station in Istanbul on January 6th 2015 (6/1/15). However the fact that the attacker in that incident has since been identified as a member of ISIL and the wife of an ISIL fighter has rather cast doubt on the official position that it was a DHKP-C attack.

Today's attack in Stavropol seems intended to mimic the tactics of the DHKP-C. Particularly that 6/1/15 attack. As such it was supposed to be seen as a heroic Turkish retaliation for the 'Russian attack' that was scheduled to have struck Turkey yesterday.

Obviously the fact that Turkey were forced to call off yesterday's scheduled 'DHKP-C/Russian attack' under international pressure does make this retaliation look even more bizarre and aggressive.

19:30 on 11/4/16 (UK date).