Operation Featherweight: Month 21, Week 4, Day 4.

On Saturday April 9th (9/4/16) the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) entered the centre of the city of Hit. By April 11th (11/4/16) they had secured the centre of the city from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). Last Thursday (14/4/16) the ISF fully liberated the city.

Obviously there is still work to be done clearing the city of the hundreds of landmines and Improvised Explosive Devices (IED's) that ISIL have left behind along with clearing the last few pockets of resistance between Hit and Haditha. However the liberation of Hit marks a significant victory for the ISF because it allows them to open the Highway 12 road that runs between Haditha some 65km (40 miles) to the north-west and Ramadi which sits around 50km (30 miles) to the south-east.

Crucially this will allow free movement between Ramadi and the Al-Baghdadi Air Base some 30km (20 miles) north-west of Hit when the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) - has been training members of the ISF.

With Hit liberated it raises the question of where the ISF should focus their efforts on liberating next. The obvious choice is the city of Fallujah. This represents ISIL's last significant area of occupation in Anbar province sitting between Ramadi 50km (30 miles) to the west and the Iraqi capital Baghdad 50km (30 miles) top the east.

Then of course there is the outstanding matter of the so-called Hawija triangle. This is a triangle of ISIL occupied territory centred around the town of Hawija between the cities of Tikrit, Kirkuk and the town of Baiji some 265km (160 miles) north of Baghdad.

Liberating Fallujah will be the harder task. When the US launched a operation to capture Fallujah back in the spring of 2004 it took a force of roughly 2,200 made up of well equipped and elite units such as the 82nd and 101st Airborne Divisions alongside 1st Marine Expeditionary Group and two Special Forces groups almost 4 weeks to defeat an enemy nowhere near as entrenched and motivated as ISIL. The second battle in the winter of 2004 involved roughly 13,000 US & coalition troops and lasted almost 12 weeks.

However as a major population centre and therefore source of tax revenue Fallujah is the bigger prize. Plus the liberation of Fallujah will effectively mean the complete liberation of Anbar province allowing the ISF to focus the bulk of their efforts elsewhere.

Unfortunately the US still seems utterly focused on forcing the ISF to rush ahead with an operation to liberate the city of Mosul - some 400km (240 miles) north of Baghdad - despite there still being so much unfinished business. As ISIL's de facto capital in Iraq Mosul will be even harder to liberate than Fallujah.

The operation will also have to involve close cooperation between the ISF, the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga and the Shia militias that are collectively known as the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF). More than two years in these groups seem to be being driven further apart by the pressure of the ISIL occupation of Iraq.

Yesterday (18/4/16) the US Secretary of Defence Ash Carter visited Iraq and used the opportunity to announce that a further 217 US ground troops will be sent to Iraq. Despite US President Obama's pledge of no boots on the ground this will bring the total number of US troops deployed to Iraq to over 4,000.

It is understood that some of these additional troops will be Special Forces operators who will be training ISF and Peshmerga troops. However the majority will be support staff for an unspecified number of AH-64 Apache helicopter gunships that the US will also be deploying.

Although it has not been officially stated the purpose of this latest deployment seems intended to put pressure on the ISF to begin an operation to liberate Mosul. This is despite the operation to liberate a number of villages centred around al-Nasr (Nasser) that sit between the town of Makhmur and Mosul being suspended indefinitely. Likewise a PMF operation to clear ISIL from the village of Bashir close to the town of Taza some 10km (6 miles) south of Kirkuk has also been aborted amid heavy casualties.

Fortunately there is absolutely no reason why those Apaches can't be used in operations to liberate other areas of Iraq such as Fallujah or the Hawija triangle. For the operation to liberate Fallujah they could be conveniently stationed at either Baghdad Airport of Al-Baghdadi Air Base.

As I've covered extensively on March 31st (31/3/16) the Army of Conquest coalition used the Geneva peace talks as cover to launch a largescale offensive across large areas of the north-west of Syria.

The Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) is of course a coalition of Sunni extremist groups headed by Al Qaeda's Syrian affiliate Al Nusra Front (ANF) alongside groups such as the Islamic Movement of the Freemen of the Levant/Harakat Ahrar as-Sham al-Islamiyya (Ahrar al-Sham) and the Army of Islam/Jaish al-Islam (JAI). They are joined by the Syrian Turkmen Brigades (STB) which itself is a coalition within a coalition made up of groups such as the Falcons of the Levant/Suqur al-Sham and the Levant Legion/Faylaq al-Sham.

Centred in a roughly 100km (60 mile) stretch of the Syria/Turkey border between Azaz in the west and the Euphrates River in the east known as "Erdogan's Pocket" which functions as their main supply route this latest Army of Conquest offensive has been focused on forcing Syrian government forces - the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) - out of Aleppo province. On the borders between Aleppo, Latakia and Idlib provinces this immediately brought the Army of Conquest into conflict with the SAA particularly around villages in the Latakia mountains on the border with Turkey.

Within Aleppo province itself the Army of Conquest's offensive seems focused on first surrounding and then capturing the provincial capital - Aleppo City. 

To this end the Army of Conquest have advanced to occupy villages on the high ground surrounding the city. From there they have been launching repeated artillery barrages against the Kurdish controlled Sheikh Maqsood district which is under the protection of the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) - the main anti-ISIL force within Syria. These have included at least two chemical weapons attacks. The Army of Conquest have also been moving to capture and cut the main M5 Highway that links Aleppo City with the rest of Syria.   

On April 12th (12/4/16) the Army of Conquest's advance on the M5 Highway brought them into contact with the SAA who were able to stop the advance driving the Army of Conquest back from the town of Al-Eis. Since then the SAA have launched a counter-offensive focused on securing the areas around the 214 Highway and the Tel Rifat road which both run north from Aleppo City to Azaz. The intention seems to be to end the Army of Conquest's offensive by cutting their supply lines between Erdogan's Pocket and Aleppo City.

On April 13th (13/4/16) Syrians went to the polls in their Parliamentary election. Although the results are yet to be formally announced it is expected that the incumbent Ba'ath Party of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad will win by a large margin. After all anyone who is voting is likely to have already decided that they support the Syrian government.

In order to distract from Syria's Parliamentary election and the deep support for the Syrian government that it shows the United Nations (UN) of all people decided to resume the Geneva peace talks on April 13th (13/4/16). Due to the election the Syrian government delegation did not attend those resumed talks and won't do so until the election is complete.

On Sunday (17/4/16) one of the lead negotiators for the High Negotiations Committee (HNC) which is opposed to the Syria government Mohammed Alloush - who also happens to be the head of the Army of Islam - declared the talks to be dead. He went on to call for the Army of Conquest coalition to ignite on all fronts urging them to strike at the throats of supporters of the Syrian government invoking a Qu'ranic verse that calls for the death of unbelievers.

On Monday (18/4/16) the Army of Conquest obliged Alloush and announced that it is launching a fresh offensive against the Syrian government they have named "Retaliation For Grievances." For the most part it has been impossible to distinguish this new offensive from the Army of Conquest offensive that has been ongoing since March 31st (31/3/16). However it seems to have triggered new fighting in Hama province centred around the town of Hakura close to the border with Latakia province.

Later on Monday (18/4/16) the rest of the HNC used the offensive they had launched as reason to withdraw from the Geneva talks. However their delegation will remain in Switzerland in order to participate in what they term "technical talks."

On Thursday (21/4/16) both US President Obama and US Secretary of State John Kerry will attend the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. It is of course Saudi Arabia that formed the HNC for the Geneva talks on Syria. 

As such it should be obvious that this Army of Conquest offensive and HNC walkout have been carefully staged in order to put pressure on the US to re-affirm at the GCC Summit that the purpose of the Geneva talks is not to bring peace to Syria. Instead it is simply another mechanism alongside war to overthrow the Syrian government and install the Army of Conquest in power in the country.

If Obama wants to bring peace to Syria it is clear what he needs to do.

17:25 on 19/4/16 (UK date).