Operation Featherweight: Month 19, Week 3, Day 7.

In my post of January 28th (28/1/16) I mentioned how the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) backed by Russia air-power had succeeded in liberating all of Latakia Province on January 24th (24/1/16). What I may have failed to make clear is just how bad tempered this got.

Turkey was of course furious at the liberation of Latakia. That is because it sealed a roughly 75km (45 mile) stretch of the border between Turkey and Syria. Turkey had been using that stretch of territory to supply weapons and fighters to an irregular division of the Turkish Army known as the Syrian Turkmen Brigades (STB). 

As the the STB are waging war against the SAA - the main force  fighting the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) - their allegiance to ISIL is beyond dispute.

As if that wasn't humiliating enough for Turkey as the SAA liberated Rabia - the last town to be liberated - the Russians deployed a Special Forces - SPETSNAZ- ground unit. That unit's mission was simple - kill or capture Alparslan Celik. You may remember that Celik is the Turkish national who appeared as the spokesman for the STB celebrating the Turkish shooting down of a Russian Su-24 over Syria on November 24th (24/11/15).

During that address Celik spoke proudly of how the STB had machine gunned the Su-24 crew as they had parachuted to earth. In doing so Celik declared to the World that he is a war criminal and on December 23rd (23/12/15) Russia duly issued an international arrest warrant to see Celik held accountable for his crimes.

However it turns out that Celik had fled Rabia prior to the SPETSNAZ raid and was instead hiding out in Istanbul, Turkey. 

This was hugely embarrassing for Turkey because it made clear to everyone that the "moderate Syrian opposition" which Turkey speaks so fondly of are neither moderate nor Syrian. The fact that Celik was not arrested the moment he entered Turkey also made quite clear that Turkey is failing in its international obligations by continuing to shelter those who have committed war crimes and crimes against humanity.

Perhaps most importantly in the pseudo-macho culture Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan has cultivated it made quite clear that Celik is a coward who ran away and hid when the big boys came knocking

Italy in particular had a great deal of fun with this in the form of ongoing raids against organised crime - the mafia - in it's country. In one particular incident the supposedly all powerful leaders of one particular criminal group were found hiding out in the woods like rats in a hole. I personally found their interest in the Spanish wholesale market highly amusing.

It is of course Italy who have been leading efforts to block this USD/E3bn ransom payment from the European Union (EU) to Turkey over the refugees.

So on January 25th (25/1/16) Italian student Giulio Regeni went missing in Cairo, Egypt. The 28 year old had been living in Egypt for the past four months as part of his Cambridge, UK, University PHD thesis on the Egyptian Trade Union movement. Nine days later Mr Regeni's body was discovered partially burnt and showing signs of torture along with injuries suggesting he had been beaten to death.

It is well known that Turkey has a sizable presence in Turkey that is working to violently overthrow the Egyptian government under the "Rabia" banner as part of Erdogan's efforts to re-establish the Ottoman Empire. One of their main tactics is to undermine the Egyptian state by accusing the police of brutality. Quite how - as a Druze woman - George Clooney's wife Amal Alamuddin can continue to work in support of these Sunni-extremists is completely beyond me.

As such I think it is quite clear to all that Turkey had Giulio Regeni murdered as punishment for Italy's blocking of this E3bn ransom payment. The killing would then be blamed on the Egyptian police further weakening the Egyptian state and furthering Turkey's cause.

Unfortunately certain sections of the UK media - particularly Sky News - have fallen for this hook, line and sinker. Surely it can't be long before former Al Jazeera reporter Sherine Tadros' career in the UK media comes to an end. After all despite all her claims of in depth knowledge of Egyptian politics she completly missed the arrest on January 30th (30/1/16) of a Turkish police officer assigned to the Turkish Consulate who had been carrying out hostile reconnaissance of the security measures to protect tourists at the Giza Pyramids. 

Obviously with diplomatic immunity eventually being invoked the details of this have been quietend somewhat.

On February 3rd (3/2/16) the SAA were finally able to liberate the villages of Nubul and Zaharaa ending a three year long siege. These sit some 15km (9 miles) north-west of Aleppo City. Their liberation leaves the occupied Aleppo City surrounded on three sides and places SAA troops around 30km (18 miles) from the border with Turkey.

This development simply added to Turkey's fury. Certainly since August 8th 2015 (8/8/15) Turkey has insisted that ISIL must be left in control of a section of it's border stretching some 100km (60 miles) from the Euphrates River in the east to roughly the border town of Kilis in the west. Containing the town of Marea this area of ISIL control has become known as "Erdogan's pocket."

Initially the purpose of establishing Erdogan's pocket was to provide a pre-text for a full-scale Turkish ground invasion of Syria. The purpose of this invasion was to strengthen ISIL's under pressure supply lines and to overthrow the main anti-ISIL force - the Syrian government. 

It seems that Erdogan has still not received a firm and non-negotiable "No" to this plan. However in the meantime he seems happy to keep his pocket open to guarantee at least a limited supply line between Turkey and Raqqa - ISIL's de facto capital in Syria.

The liberation of Nubul and Zaharaa obviously leaves the SAA poised to move in an seal Erdogan's pocket cutting what is left of ISIL's supply lines. So in response Turkey's propaganda machine has gone into overdrive throwing out wild claim after wild claim the hope of halting the SAA's advance.

So apparently the SPETSNAZ team dedicated to the capture of Alparslan Celik is now an "Anti-Sunni Death Squad" while Celik's return to his native Turkey is now apparently "Ethnic Cleansing."

The main effort though is the roughly 70,000 civilians who have fled north from the line of conflict into Erdogan's pocket. This is entirely a problem of Erdogan's creation.

Throughout the past five years Turkey has pumped out relentless anti-Shia propaganda. This has all been focused on telling the Syria people that they are engaged in the sectarian war to end all wars and the evil Shias of the Syrian government will murder them in their beds in they get the chance. Although entirely false governments and the media in the west have seen fit to recite these lies as fact rather than exposing them for what they are.

To the west of Erdogan's pocket you have the Kurdish Peoples Protection Units (YPG) operating in what they term the "Afrin Canton." To the east of Erdogan's pocket - across the Euphrates - you have the mixed forces of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD).

In war Internally Displaced People (IDP's) tend to flee away from the line of conflict no matter how jagged that is. If the YPG and the QSD moved in from the west and east in a pincer movement to the north then the IDP's would flee the line by heading south. This would put them in territory controlled by the Syrian government where they would discover that all the Turkish lies about the Syrian government are just that. Lies.

However Turkey has remained adamant that neither the YPG nor the QSD can move into remove ISIL from Erdogan's pocket. As such the only option remaining is for the SAA to advance from the south driving the IDP's north.

Not only is it entirely of Erdogan's creation this new IDP crisis seems to be of his design. There is significant concern that he will attempt to use it as the pre-text for the invasion of Syria. Turkey already seems to be involved in a sort of soft invasion under the pretence of sending humanitarian supplies to the IDP's.

So it raised many an eyebrow when on February 9th (9/2/16) German Chancellor/Head of Government Angela Merkel once again travelled to Turkey in order to indulge Erdogan's every whim lest he tells the world that she made another little girl cry.

As such that day's crash between two trains just outside the city of Munich in the German state of Bavaria should hardly have come as a surprise. In case you haven't worked it out by now one of the trains represented Turkey's desire to flood the EU with irregular migrants - I suspect Erdogan's focus is on terrorists rather than refugees. The other train represented the backlash for any right thinking person in Europe. The signal operator who is under investigation for making the mistake that caused the crash is of course Angela Merkel.

The death toll of 11 wasn't actually that bad in comparison. Erdogan drowns that many in the Aegean every day.

Demonstrating that Angela Merkel now speaks for no-one but Angela Merkel on Thursday (11/2/16) the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) announced that it was deploying a unified task force to the Aegean Sea. At the moment that task force's mission is to gather intelligence on the routes used to smuggle irregular migrants through Turkey into the EU. However if Turkey fails to act on that intelligence I can see it being turned into a blockade to stop Erdogan's train in its tracks preventing any future collisions.

Elsewhere everyone has really been focused on 'forgetting' to return emails about the YPG advancing out of the Afrin Canton with Russian air-support. On Thursday (11/2/16) the YPG had succeeded in liberating the Menagh airbase from groups allied to ISIL. This sits roughly 15km (8 miles) south of Syria's border with Turkey roughly 40km (24 miles) north of Aleppo City.

Meanwhile the US and France as part of Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) - the US-led coalition - have been busy bombing ISIL positions around the town of Manbij. This sits on the western bank of the Euphrates just beyond the Tishan Dam that the QSD liberated on December 26th (26/12/15). Since then Turkey's big concern is that the QSD will advance on Manbij and remove ISIL from Erdogan's pocket. 

I'm not saying that this bombing of Manbij is definitely CJTFOIR giving permission for the QSD operation to proceed. However if the QSD were to advance they would certainly find that the target has been softened up for them.

As such former French Foreign Minister's Laurent Fabius' curious pro-Turkish leaving comments struck me as the parting shots of a man whose been told that he doesn't need to work out his notice period after all.

Things got really interesting though on Wednesday (10/2/16) when US jets took off from United States Air Force (USAF) base Incirilk in Turkey. They proceeded to fly to Aleppo City and bomb targets being occupied by what Turkey terms the 'moderate opposition.' The Americans then immediately put out a statement claiming that two hospitals had been destroyed in strikes they blamed on the Russians.

However the next day CJTFOIR published their daily strike update. This edition was adorned with a photograph of the aircraft that carried out the Aleppo City strikes. Inside it made clear that CJTFOIR would be making no apologies for the strikes on Manbij.

Then on Thursday (11/2/16) evening someone thought it would be a good idea to hold a meeting of the poorly named International Syria Support Group (ISSG). Better referred to as the "Illegal Sunnistan Syria Group" the ISSG is an international group dedicated to the overthrow of the Syrian government. As this aim runs contrary to the charter of the United Nations (UN) I do not understand how it can, in any way, be endorsed by the UN or attended by any UN member state.

However it seems that some people enjoyed World War One and World War Two so much they just can't wait to start World War Three.

In what I can only assume was a psychotic episode in the stupidly early hours of Friday (12/2/16) morning the ISSG announced that it had reached an agreement. As always with these types of agreement exactly what was agreed is certainly open to interpretation.

For example you could interpret the agreement to mean that Russia and the Syrian government have decided to surrender and preserve ISIL's presence in the country for all eternity.

Alternatively you could interpret it to mean that the US has given itself a timetable of 7 days to end all pro-ISIL sanctions against Russia and formally designate Turkey as a state sponsor of terrorism. Thus ending its membership of NATO.

Assuming it was the former Islamist terrorists decided to celebrate by attacking a UN base near Kidal in Mali. Five UN staff members were killed in this attack.

However after having it explained to them that it was more of the latter the US then started to panic a bit with the shooting of two schoolgirls at the Independence High School in Arizona. The two girls represent the female fighters of the YPG to the west of Erdogan's pocket and the female fighters of the QSD to the east of Erdogan's pocket. The announcement that it was an "isolated incident" was intended to reassure Erdogan that the two girls would not be meeting at independence.

Emboldened by this on Saturday (13/2/16) Turkey started shelling YPG positions in Syria. The purpose of this barrage was to stop the YPG liberating the road that runs between the towns of Azaz and Tell Rifat which sits around 2km (1.2 miles) east of the Menagh airbase.

Both Azaz and Tell Rifat are currently under the occupation of Al Nusra Front (ANF) - Al Qaeda's affiliate in Syria. Therefore Turkey's actions can only be viewed as an unprovoked act of war against Syria and it's allies in direct support of an internationally recognised terrorist group.

Curiously the US - through Vice President Joe Biden - opted not to condemn Turkey's actions in support of a declared enemy of the US. Instead they merely urged Turkey to try and show restraint. Perhaps more shockingly the US went on to actively discourage the YPG from liberating any more territory for Al Qaeda.

Needless to say Turkey was further emboldened by these comments and continued to shell the YPG today. The Turks say that they've killed 32 YPG fighters while the YPG claim that only 2 have fallen. Either way it's been a bit nasty. 

While all this was going on the US was ruining it all by trying to force everyone to air their dirty laundry in public at the Munich Security Conference. This of course is the type of sounding out that should have occurred in the corridors of the closed NATO Summit that should have taken place immediately after the November 13th (13/11/15) Paris Massacres.

After all I gather the Munich Security Conference is only attended by the sort of podgy right-wing loons who get all sweaty in the palms at the mere mention of a little bit of military action.

Apart from that though I think it went well. After all US President Barack Obama never fails. 

He's Awesome.