Wednesday 17 February 2016

Operation Featherweight: Month 19, Week 4, Day 2.

Yesterday the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) did indeed meet to discuss Turkey's shelling of northern Syria which began on Saturday (13/2/16).

Turkey has quite clearly stated that the purpose of this shelling is to prevent the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) from liberating a roughly 100km (60 miles) long stretch of territory from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and Al Qaeda's affiliate in Syria the Al Nusra Front (ANF).

This was a closed UNSC session which is the polar opposite of this past weekend's Munich Security Conference. It is attended only by the 15 members of the UNSC and the convention is that none of those members speak directly to the media. As a result this is largely guess work.

However it appears that Russia tabled a statement "Urging Turkey to comply with international law." The choice of the word "urge" was a pointed reference to the statement the US issued on Saturday (13/2/16) urging Turkey to show restraint while calling on the YPG to stop fighting ISIL/ANF.

The use of the term "Urge" rather than say "Insists," "Demands," "Orders" etc gives the false impression that Turkey's compliance with international law is somehow optional.

This was pointed reference to the French authored UNSC Resolution 2249 (2015) that was passed on November 21st (21/11/15) just after the Paris Massacres. That limited the obligation to fight terrorism - a requirement under international law due to Resolution 2170 (2014) - only to nations "with the capacity to do so." The implication being that the "Desire" to fight terrorism is the same as the "Capacity" to fight terrorism.

Despite forcing two permanent, veto wielding, members to the UNSC to admit to their mistakes it appears that the Russian statement has been unanimously agreed upon. However it was never intended to be a public statement.

In the extremely polite world of international diplomacy this is rather a strong statement against Turkey.

However my concern is that even at the best of times Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan's relationship with reality is rather tenuous and subtly is not his strong suit.

So although this statement makes clear that Turkey's behaviour is a complete violation of international law it leaves the door open just a crack by suggesting that Turkey has the option of continuing to violate international law.

It seems that Turkey intends to try and force its way through that crack. Today government linked media in Turkey are trying to deny the statement ever existed while the Deputy Prime Minister has again re-stated Turkey's intention to invade Syria. A national security council meeting is scheduled to start right about now and Turkey has continued to shell the YPG.

Although it clearly needs to stop because people are being killed Turkey's actions fortunately don't seem to be making much of a difference. Despite the shelling on Monday (15/2/16) the YPG were able to liberate the town of Tel Rifat from Al Qaeda.

Today it is seems the genuinely moderate groups in Marea - which sits around 6km (3.5 miles) east of Tel Rifat - have decided that they have no fight with the YPG and will be allowing them to peacefully enter the town this evening.

15:15 on 17/2/16 (UK date).