Tuesday 2 February 2016

The Iowa Caucus.

Although it might be hard to tell underneath the weight of all the debates the 2016 US Presidential election only actually began yesterday with the Iowa Caucus'.

A quirk of the US electoral system this allows registered supporters to chose who the candidate will be for their party. Registered independents can actually vote in either the Republican or Democrat caucus in their state.

Following the failure of COP21 and the seemingly never ending war against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) I have recently found myself to be rather depressed and irritable.

A large part of the reason for this is that the 2016 Presidential race already seems to be utterly devoid of any hope. I mean that in the traditional sense rather than the Obama sense.

The Democratic race is already over. It was decided long ago that Hillary Clinton will be their 2016 candidate.

However they are aware that a Clinton coronation would be a massive turn-off amongst the vast majority of voters who aren't registered to participate in either caucus.

So instead they've introduced what is known in the trade as a stalking candidate in the form of Bernie Sanders.

Although two-fold Sanders role in the Democrat race is to not to win. Instead it is to make it look as though Clinton has been forced to compete while also making Clinton appear moderate and mainstream by comparison.

For example Sanders is quite proud of the fact he spent his 1988 honeymoon in the Soviet Union. In this day and age even the Russians think he's an idiot.

With registered Democrat supporters likely following the party line last night's caucus appears to have been close with Clinton's victory apparently only being decided on a coin toss. Next they will move onto New Hampshire which is firmly part of liberal New England and next door to Vermont - the state that has been electing Sanders as their Congressman since 1991.

It seems though that the Democrats are not happy simply having Hillary Clinton crowned as their candidate in a rigged race. They also want to rig the race so she can be crowned President.

So she has sent her close personal friend Donald Trump to ruin the Republican race by making them look like fools.

The outcome of this will be either one of two scenarios;

Either Trump will win the Republican nomination meaning that Clinton will win the Presidency.

Alternatively Trump will miss out on the Republican nomination and stand as an independent. This will split the Republican meaning that Hillary Clinton will win the Presidency.

In that second scenario the Republicans only hope is to select a moderate candidate who can pick up floating voters to make up for the core supporters that will be hemorrhaged to Trump. Unfortunately it currently seems impossible that the Republican field will be able to produce such a candidate.

The winner in Iowa was a guy called Ted Cruz who seems a bit of a worry. While understand that in the primaries you need to appeal to the base I get the impression announces policies as a form of mockery Cruz actually believes them.

Born in Canada it is questionable whether Cruz is even eligible to hold the office of President and any Republican who says he is is certainly going to be accused of racism by the Democrats

The second place in Iowa was a guy called Marco Rubio. The problem with both Cruz and Rubio is that they are both first term Senators with absolutely no experience in executive office - not even a Mayorship let alone a state Governorship.

Although I am not yet old enough to run for the office of President I actually have more political experience then Cruz and Rubio combined. It was Obama's lack of experience that proved a major problem.

When Rubio first entered the race I assumed the plan was that he would drop-out mid-way though to become Jeb Bush's running mate to appeal to Hispanic and younger voters. Then following a spell as Vice President Rubio would launch his actual campaign.

However so destructive has the effect of Trump been on the Republican race Bush's campaign seems to be in deep trouble polling 3% in Iowa. Another credible contender - Rick Perry - has already been forced to withdraw from the race. Although not paying a huge amount of attention I assumed Cruz would be Perry's Rubio.

The devastation in the Republican race has caused me to look again at New Jersey Governor Chris Christie. Due to Superstorm Sandy I've long been familiar with him having followed him of Twitter for almost four years now.

In that time he's shown himself to be that rarest of things in US politics - a realist and a pragmatist. That means that when a problem arises he tries to solve it rather than making it worse to energise his supporters.

The concern has always been that due to his rough around the edges style Christie would always struggle to rise to the role of international statesman that a US President needs to be.

For example when the issue of a sugar tax came recently Christie issued a statement saying that he's not interested in what Americans eat. For a man of Christies girth that seemed intended to set up the obvious response; "Provided you save some for him."

While I find that hilarious I'm aware that if you hold an office like President of the United States you can't get away with behaving like that on the international stage.

However with me following him on Twitter Christie has already been brought onto the fringes of that international stage.

For example it was at this point last week someone else I follow on Twitter - Baltimore's Mayor Rawlings-Blake seemed to be getting very concerned about a burst pipe on Belgian Avenue in light of the Flint water crisis as it relates to the fight against ISIL.

So along with his time prosecuting terrorism cases as the New Jersey District Attorney under George W Bush as the race has progressed I'm starting to think that Christie might be able to switch things up a gear and become a credible Presidential candidate.

Unfortunately for that to happen he will be need to be regularly mixing in with the front-runners. He's currently languishing away on the under-card polling just 2% in Iowa.

18:10 on 2/2/16 (UK date).

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