COP21 Terrorism Update #21

As the investigation has progressed under US & EU supervision a clearer picture has begun to emerge of the bombing of Daallo Airlines flight DAO 159 over Mogadishu, Somalia on February 2nd (2/2/16).

It now seems to be an exact carbon copy of the October 31st (31/10/16) bombing of Kogalymavia Airlines flight 7K9268 over Egypt in every way except for the death toll.

It appears that the bomb was smuggled through what little security there is at Mogadishu airport by a member of staff. It was then handed to the passenger who took it aboard only to be killed in the explosion. The main point of focus in the 7K9268 investigation is an airline mechanic who is suspected of smuggling the bomb aboard the flight under duress from persons unknown.

The bomb itself appears to have been hidden inside a laptop computer. Already containing the power supply, electronics and even the timer needed to detonate a bomb laptops have long been recognised as a convenient way to smuggle small bombs aboard aircraft. After all the explosive charge can be hidden in the X-ray voids such as the hard-disc or battery.

However as I've mentioned the big movie at the 2016 Oscars is "The Revenant." This is supposed to serve as a metaphor for the journey towards COP21 and finally win an Oscar for Leonardo DiCaprio who has been heavily involved in efforts to combat climate change for a number of years. I've also made clear that I'm in the process of writing up a full analysis of the the Oscars on an offline laptop computer that I will not publish until after the ceremony.

As I've said numerous times there is probably nothing worse than telling a bunch of spies that you know a secret. But you're not going to tell them what it is.

It has also emerged that DAO 159 was not the scheduled target. Apparently the passengers had brought tickets with Turkish Airlines only for the Turkish Airlines aircraft not to turn up. At the last minute Daallo Airlines stepped into take over the route.

With the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) claiming responsibility for 7K9268 Turkey has in turn being held responsible for the bombing because of its support for ISIL.

The purpose of the bombing of DAO 159 was always to cast doubt on ISIL's claim of responsibility for 7K9268 and suggest that a nation state had been responsible. Staging an ineffective bombing on a Turkish Airlines aircraft would certainly have served that purpose. However the fact that Turkey knew enough for their aircraft not to turn up certainly suggests they're in contact with those responsible for the bombing.

At the time I went on record blaming Saudi Arabia for the bombing of 7K9268. I'm not sure why I've suddenly become so coy.

Away from events in Somalia in the last couple of days there have been some big developments to do with the COP21 draft agreement itself.

The first of these is that on Tuesday (9/2/16) the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) issued a temporary injunction preventing the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) going into force. This is not the same as saying the US won't be meeting its obligations but it certainly won't be doing so until SCOTUS has issued a final ruling on the legality of the proposal.

This has come as a surprise to absolutely no-one. In fact I used it to highlight why the 5-year commitment cycles are simply unworkable in my December 12th (12/12/16) post; http://watchitdie.blogspot.co.uk/2015/12/cop21-wow-what-press-conference.html

The other big development is that yesterday (10/2/16) COP21 President Laurent Fabius resigned from his main job as France's Foreign Minister. Even before COP21 we knew that Fabius' term was ending and he would be leaving the post. However he seems to have been forced out a little bit earlier then expected. For example his parting shots on ISIL seemed somewhat inconsistent with French policy for reasons I shouldn't even hint at without putting in their proper context.

Throughout I've been saying that the big problem with COP21 has been US President Barack Obama's desire to force through any old agreement to secure his legacy rather then producing an agreement that actually works. The same problem has also applied to Fabius. Apparently he also wanted to secure a peace deal between Israel and Palestine before leaving office.

Obviously now Fabius has left office it has become a lot easier to consign his legacy to the litter - er, sorry recycling - bin.

So overnight US Federal authorities have moved into to arrest the final four members of the occupation of the Malheur Wildlife Reserve in Oregon. This of course was the US comprehensive contribution to the post-COP21 debate. The main point it seemed to raise was that by getting bogged down in the argument over REDD+ and the associated argument over indigenous rights both the US and Brazil had managed to lose sight of the wider objective.

However after the initial couple of days of excitement the "Oregon Occupation" as it was dubbed just sort of sat there not doing very much.

As such it really became a debate about when the campaign to have the COP21 draft adopted would end. This element really began on January 20th (20/1/16) with Oregon Governor Kate Brown demanding that Obama took action to end the "Spectacle of Lawlessness." It escalated further with the arrest of 8 and the killing of 1 of the protesters on January 26th (26/1/16) while US Secretary of State John Kerry was visiting China.

After last night's developments the general tone I'm getting out of the US is that it is definitely going to end soon.

France obviously tried to include itself in the discussion with the crash of a school bus into a truck in Rochefort, south-west France that killed six.

As I mentioned in discussing The Revenant it is heavily inspired by a French TV show called "Les Revenants" that begins with children killed in a school bus crash returning as zombies. As I also mentioned this became something of a big issue across South America throughout 2015 with the Temple of Santiago Church being revealed by receding reservoir water in Mexico and the Bento Rodrigues dam collapse in Brazil.

What I forgot to mention though was that France also made reference to this with the death of 45 pensioners where their bus collided with a truck near Puisseguin on October 23rd (23/10/15). Puisseguin is around 125km (75 miles) south-east of Rochefort.

In talking about The Revenant I expressed concern that perhaps my failure to address Les Revenants might have contributed to the failure of COP21. However I remain adamant that was not such a significant factor as Obama's decision to swoop in and tear up the agreement everyone had been working on for five in order to replace it with essentially blank pages.

On Tuesday (9/2/16) twin suicide bombers struck the Dika camp for Internally Displaced People (IDP's) in Nigeria's north-west Borno state which has long been plagued by the Islamist terrorism of Boko Haram.

As I said during COP21 I view Nigeria and the neighbouring states such as Cameroon as active war-zones alongside Syria and Iraq. Therefore bomb attacks occur with such frequency that it is impossible for me to comment on every one. However with 56 killed this seems to have been a particularly nasty one. The fact that an IDP camp was targeted seems to be a reference to the situation on the Syria/Turkey border. I will have to deal with that separately.

Today 6 people have been shot and killed at Education Department offices in Saudi Arabia's south-western Jazan Province.

The targeting of an educational facility seems intended to invoke memories of both the December 16th 2014 (16/12/14) attack on a school in Peshawar, Pakistan and the April 2nd 2015 (2/4/15) attack on Garissa University in Kenya. The fact that Jazan sits on Saudi Arabia's border with Yemen seems intended as a reminder to east/central African nations of the threat that lurks just across the Gulf of Aden.

So it seems that while nations such as the US are casting doubt on the COP21 draft agreement ever being ratified Saudi Arabia is upping its intimidation of the poorer nations in the hope of forcing it through.

18:35 on 11/2/16 (UK date).