COP21 Terrorism Update #20.

A month prior to the start of the COP21 Summit an Airbus A321 was bombed out of the skies over Egypt on October 31st 2015 (31/10/15). All 224 civilians aboard Russian Kogalymavia Airlines flight 7K9268 were killed.

Almost three weeks later of November 18th (18/11/15) the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) published a photograph of the bomb they claim had been used to bring down 7K9268. The problem was that the bomb presented by ISIL could not have brought down the airliner.

There are two possible explanations for this discrepancy. Firstly ISIL did carry out the bombing but were lying about how they did it in the hope of being able to carry out similar attacks in the future. Alternatively ISIL didn't carry out the bombing but were claiming responsibility in order to boost their own profile and protect the people who actually did carry out the bombing.

Rihanna's rumoured tryst with actor Leonardo DiCaprio in COP21 host city Paris, France on January 19th (19/1/16) triggered a renewed interest in both COP21 and the 7K9268 bombing. On January 29th (29/1/16) it became strongly rumoured that Egyptian authorities had identified and arrested a mechanic at Sharm el-Sheikh airport who had placed the bomb aboard 7K9268.

This has not been officially confirmed but it is understood that a number of men suddenly arrived at this mechanics home, gave him a package - the bomb - and told him to place it aboard the flight or his family would be killed. Obviously the identities of those men is of significant interest.

On Tuesday (2/2/16) an Airbus 321 operated by Somalia's Daallo Airlines was forced to make an emergency landing at Somalia's Mogadishu airport after an explosion tore a hole in the passenger cabin. Investigations into what caused that explosion are still underway by preliminary indications are that is was caused by a bomb similar to the type ISIL claim brought down 7K9268.

The fact that this aircraft was able to safely make an emergency landing with apparently only one fatality confirms that the catastrophic loss of 7K9268 could not have been caused by the type of bomb ISIL claimed to have used.

Again there are two possible explanations for this. ISIL's November 18th (18/11/15) claim was made in their "Dabiq" magazine which is published to inspire others to carry out attacks in ISIL's name. As such it is possible that a copycat has built a bomb exactly to ISIL's specifications only to discover that it doesn't work.

However the rumour doing the rounds is that the Daallo Airlines bomb used military grade TNT as an explosive rather than the homemade TATP that was used to bring down 7K9268. The use of a more potent explosive would obviously do more damage rather than less further underlining that the bomb design claimed by ISIL was not capable of bringing down 7K9268.

The rather low-key way this has been done suggests that it was intended to indicate that 7K9268 was the work of a nation state rather than ISIL in the hope of finding out how the investigation has progressed in identifying that nation state.

As an undercurrent of menace the fact that a nation state has been able to go unpunished after carrying out an atrocity on the scale of 7K9268 is intended as a show of force to show that particular nation state considers itself above international law and the internationally recognised norms of acceptable behaviour.

That is an extra threat to nations in central/east Africa who are already under great pressure to sign up the draft agreement produced by COP21 that will effectively block nations from taking action to combat climate change either now or in the future.

15:30 on 5/2/16 (UK date).