On December 28th 2015 (28/12/15) the government of Iraq declared the city of Ramadi liberated from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). Ramadi is one of the largest cities in Iraq's predominately Sunni-Arab south-western Anbar Province and sits around 65km (40 miles) west of Iraq's capital Baghdad.
As far back as the summer of 2015 I've been complaining that I'd been unable to gather the same level of information about the fight against ISIL in Anbar Province as I had in the Kurdish areas of northern Iraq and Syria. I said that I needed time to build up that information.
Unfortunately in July 2015 US President Barack Obama made his now infamous telephone call to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. In this phonecall Obama seems to have given Erdogan permission to join the fight on the side of ISIL against the Kurdish forces conducting air-strikes against them in Iraq and threatening a ground invasion in Iraq. Since then the Kurdish areas along the Turkish border have produced one crisis after another.
Just today Turkey is reporting that ISIL fired mortars from inside Syria at a school in Turkey's southern Kilis Province killing one. As with the repeated ISIL strikes against the Bashiqa camp which is occupied by Turkish troops in northern Iraq this attack seems intended to provide Turkey with an excuse to resume its invasion plans on the pre-text of self-defence. The true purpose of any invasion of course would be to re-establish the supply lines between Turkey and Raqqa - ISIL's de facto capital in Syria.
However even without going into too much detail it seems obvious that in Ramadi ISIL has been deploying the same tactics it used in the battle of Tikrit back in March of 2015. Rather than attempting to hold territory ISIL build in multiple layers of minefield's and Improvised Explosive Devices (IED's) to slow the liberators advance while the ISIL fighters flee. Then while the liberators are clearing the IED's ISIL launch frequent raids which prevent the civilian population returning.
This proved a particular problem in the town of Baiji and its adjoining oil refinery which sits around 50km (30 miles) north of Tikrit. Although the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) were able to liberate Tikrit they failed to press home the advantage and clear ISIL from the triangle of land around Hawija that sits between Baiji, Tikrit and Kirkuk. As a result the battle over Baiji never really ended continuing for many months after it was first declared liberated.
The ISF seem to be encountering the same problem with Ramadi with fighting continuing almost 4 weeks after liberation was declared. However those attacks are becoming smaller and less frequent.
Therefore it is clear that the ISF's next objective has been liberating the area surrounding Ramadi from ISIL. This includes the series of towns that run north-west of Ramadi along the Euphrates River up to Qa'im on the border with Syria. The ISF have then got to liberate the city of Fallujah which sits between Ramadi and Baghdad. Once that is completed they need to return to Tikrit to clear out Hawija and link up with Kurdish Peshmerga forces in Kirkuk. Then and only then can the ISF think about liberating Mosul.
What is making progress so painfully slow is that US President Obama - the nominal Commander-in-Chief - of Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR), the international anti-ISIL coalition - simply does not view ISIL as an enemy. Instead he views them as a strategic partner in removing all Shia-Arab governments from the region. Quite why that is Obama's strategic objective is something we're still waiting for him to explain.
As a result rather than helping the Iraqis defeat ISIL CJTFOIR has been doing everything in its power to protect ISIL by slowing down the Iraqi's efforts. For example one of the main problems the ISF had in liberating Ramadi is that CJTFOIR had come in and destroyed all the bridges the ISF would have used to enter the city adding another layer to ISIL's defences. CJTFOIR of course flatly refused to participate in the liberation of Tikrit at all.
This position has become completely untenable for the US since Russia joined the fight against ISIL in Syria on September 30th 2015 (30/9/15). Russia most certainly do not view ISIL as an ally to be coddled. Instead they view them as an enemy to be defeated and they have set about that task with quite some pace.
Although it's an asymmetric battlefield without clearly defined front-lines in the three and a half months since joining the fight Russia has succeeded in pushing ISIL and associated groups some 120km (75 miles) back from Latakia Province into Aleppo Province. With Russia's backing the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) is rumoured to be about to launch a large offensive to drive ISIL and associated groups from Aleppo City and the surrounding areas.
This is why Turkey is desperate to get its irregular Turkmen forces into position north of Aleppo City around the town of Marea and why ISIL are desperate to help them. If Turkey is unable to get its forces into position before the SAA then ISIL will be cut off in a small strip of land between the Euphrates River to the west and the Iraq border to the east. From there it will be relatively easy for the SAA to simply drive ISIL out of Syria and into Iraq.
The original plan of course was that CJTFOIR would drive ISIL out of Iraq and into Syria.
If Russia and the SAA do succeed in pushing ISIL out of Syria it will be catastrophic for the US. That's because it won't be long before the Iraqi government gets sick of the constant delays and dumps CJTFOIR in favour of Russia ending US influence in the country and greatly reducing its influence in the region.
Sadly I think that it is obvious to all that Obama will respond to this by increasing his backing of Turkey in the hope of protecting ISIL in Syria so he can continue to protect them in Iraq. However what he should be doing is speeding up operations in Iraq so ISIL end up getting crushed between the two advancing forces.
The quickest way for Obama to speed up operations in Iraq is by abandoning this constant training of the Iraq Army. Rather than attempting to create the greatest army the World has ever seen before giving it permission to attempt to fight ISIL CJTFOIR should concentrate more on forming a vaguely competent Iraqi army and then supporting it as it fights ISIL.
The other major thing that Obama could do to speed up operations in Iraq is include the Shia militias that are known collectively as the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF). This represents one of the largest and the most highly motivated fighting forces in Iraq.
However as Obama flatly refuses to accept that Iraq is a majority Shia nation CJTFOIR is forbidden from working with them. That is why the PMF were banned from the Ramadi operation and why CJTFOIR refused to participate in the Tikrit operation.
With CJTFOIR now having to liberate and hold vast areas of Iraq including the major cities of Fallujah and Mosul in what could be a period of less than three months it is clear that they are going to need every fighter available. That includes the PMF.
ISIL's main sponsor - Saudi Arabia - is clearly well aware of this so has spent the start of 2016 trying to inflame Sunni/Shia tensions across the region. This began with the execution of prominent Shia cleric Nimr al-Nimr on trumped up terrorism charges and continued with the breaking off of diplomatic relations with Iran - the regions largest Shia nation.
The intention being to re-enforce the claim that sectarian tensions - which Saudi Arabia created - mean that the Shia PMF couldn't possibly be used to liberate Sunni Anbar province. This of course would serve to preserve the positions held by ISIL and further delay the liberation of Iraq.
On the ground in Iraq ISIL have been attempting to capitalise of this increased support from Saudi Arabia by launching a new campaign of sectarian terror attacks against Iraq's majority Shia civilian population.
A particular attack of note occurred on January 11th (11/1/16) when ISIL gunmen set off a car bomb and then stormed the al-Jawhara Shopping Mall in Baghdad killing 18. This marked a shift in tactics away from ISIL's usual suicide bombings and seemed intended to mirror the tactics used by African Islamists. For example such as in the September 21st 2013 (21/9/13) attack on Westgate Mall attack in Nairobi, Kenya and the November 20th 2015 (20/11/15) attack on the Radisson Blu hotel in Bamako, Mali.
Capitalising on the wave of Islamist terrorism that has swept the globe in connection with the COP21 summit the al-Jawhara attack was ISIL trying to create a Shia backlash against Sunnis by announcing that they are backed by Saudi Arabia and together they're going to destroy all the Shias.
Yesterday it was announced that on Friday (15/1/16) three Iraqi-born US citizens had been kidnapped in Baghdad. Those who are clearly holding a grudge immediately blamed this on the PMF particularly the Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq group.
However I wouldn't be at all surprised to learn that this kidnapping had been ordered by Saudi intelligence specifically to drive a further wedge between the US and the PMF. Thus further protecting ISIL.
18:30 on 18/1/16 (UK date).
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