Due to violent opposition to action on climate change by the Gulf states led by Saudi Arabia this meeting triggered a global upsurge in Islamic inspired terrorism;
- On October 31st (31/10/15) the Russian airline Kogalymavia's flight 7K9268 was bombed out of the skies over Egypt killing all 224 people on board. This was intended as a show of force demonstrating that the terrorists can kill large numbers of civilians with impunity.
- On November 13th (13/11/15) a series of co-ordinated suicide bomb and gun attacks occurred across the French capital Paris killing 130 people. Again this was a show of force demonstrating not only that the terrorists could kill large numbers of civilians with impunity but also that they could strike at the heart of the city hosting the COP21 Summit. It was intended to disrupt COP21 by creating a climate of fear and forcing the French hosts to introduce restrictive security measures.
- On November 20th (20/11/15) a hotel in the Malian capital Bamako was attacked by gunmen who went on to kill 22 people. This was intended to further increase the oppressive atmosphere surrounding COP21 by creating fear that delegates could be attacked in their hotel rooms. It was also intended to demonstrate the global reach of the terrorists. Particularly in Africa where many of the most vulnerable and least capable nations in terms of climate change are located.
- On November 24th (24/11/15) terrorists attacked a bus carrying members of the Presidential guard in the Tunisian capital Tunis. This was intended to demonstrate that COP21 delegates could not only be attacked at the summit venue and at their hotels but also on the shuttle buses taking them from their hotels to the venue and back again.
- On December 2nd (2/12/15) terrorists struck in the city of San Bernardino, California, US. With the attack being carried out by an environmental health inspector and his wife in a the Riverside area of the city this raised a number of complex issues - such as access to water - that play a big role within climate change negotiations. It was also intended to send the message that the terrorists could strike at the heart of the US - the World's biggest economic and military power - and still US President Barack Obama would do nothing to challenge them.
- On December 7th (7/12/15) Jaafar Mohammed Saad - the Governor of Yemen's Aden province - was killed along with several of his aides in a car bombing in Aden. This was intended to remind everybody how Saudi Arabia is poised to attack any east/central African nations that oppose it through Somalia which sits across the Gulf of Aden from Yemen. It was also intended to show how far from being opposed to this the US is actively supporting Saudi Arabia in its efforts.
However if I had to identify the major problem it is that the draft agreement re-establishes what is known in the jargon as the principle of binary differentiation. The was the main reason why the Kyoto Protocol (KP) failed.
Essentially it limits the requirement to reduce greenhouse gas (ghg) emissions to just 38 nations who are defined as "developed." This definition does not include China - the World's 2nd largest economy - or India - the World's 9th largest. It is also a matter of debate whether this definition includes the US - the World's largest economy.
As a result this draft agreement will do absolutely nothing to keep global temperatures below a 3C rise let alone limiting them to the 2C rise needed to avoid runaway and uncontrollable changes to the global climate. By removing any obligation to reduce global ghg emissions it also destroys many of the programs such as Carbon Trading Schemes (CTS) that could reduce emissions by protecting Rainforests globally.
The absolutely critical flaw in the draft though is that unlike the Kyoto Protocol it contains no sunset clause at which point it ceases to be in effect. Therefore if ratified the COP21 draft not only fails to take action to combat climate change now it also prevents any action being taken at any point in the future.
With COP21 ending and the dust settling nations have had the opportunity to reflect on the decisions made. As a result a number of nations have begun to express regret at the draft. This includes the US who were the main authors of the text.
In order for the COP21 draft to become a global agreement it needs to be ratified by at least 55 nations by April 2017. If that fails to happen it will be scrapped and we can resume work on an agreement that might actually combat climate change.
China and India are obviously likely to ratify the draft because it allows them to continue to grow their economies by emitting ghg's while holding back their competitors. Due to President Obama's ego-driven desire to claim saving the World as part of his legacy the US is also likely to ratify the draft. As it prevents action being taken to tackle climate change being taken now or in the future Saudi Arabia is also likely to ratify the draft and bring with them the 22 nations that make up the Arab League.
However this still requires another 30 nations to ratify the COP21 draft before it can come into force. As a result Saudi Arabia has been trying to intimidate nations - particularly in east/central Africa - into ratifying the draft.
So on December 19th (19/12/15) there was yet another terrorist bombing in the Somali capital Mogadishu which targeted a cinema and a shopping. This of course was again intended to demonstrate Saudi Arabia's reach across the Gulf of Aden.
At the same time there has been a concerted effort to destabilise the east/central African governments of Ethiopia, Burundi and Rwanda through 'popular protests'. These were intended to show that terrorism is not the only weapon in Saudi Arabia's arsenal when it comes to removing disagreeable governments.
Seemingly oblivious to the regional political climate the US threw its weight behind these efforts prompting a ticking off from both it's peers on the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) and the UN itself.
Saturday (16/1/16) sees the first formal UNFCCC meeting since COP21 take place in Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Although small and concentrating specifically on the issue of renewable energy this two day meeting will be the first time that delegates from UNFCCC nations will be gathered together in the same room at the same time.
It should come as little surprise then that today we have seen yet another Islamic inspired terror attack.
This one has taken place in the Indonesian capital Jakarta and has seen at least five attackers carry out Paris-style gun, grenade and suicide bomb attacks at multiple locations across the Sarinah district of the city. Fortunately at this early stage the death toll appears to be substantially lower than the 130 killed during the November 13th (13/11/15) Paris Massacres.
Within climate change negotiations Indonesia is considered a nation of particular interest. They've long operated a system of slash and burn farming whereby farmers set fire to the land they've been using all year in order for the ashes nourish the soil before moving on to the plot of land they burnt in previous years. Although technically carbon neutral this practice produces a lot of smoke/smog.
This smoke/smog's refusal to stay within Indonesia's borders has helped to develop what is known in the jargon as the principle of global commons - essentially the natural environment does not respect man-made borders. Many of Indonesia's neighbours have also long tried to use climate change negotiations to get Indonesia to end this practice including a concerted effort to have specific language on the issue included in the COP21 draft.
The US recently made a lot of reference to Indonesia in its sizable contribution to the discussion which took the form of the occupation of the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge in the US state of Oregon.
Indonesia is also a country of note within discussions about Islamic inspired terrorism. It is after all the World's most populous Muslim nation. However it doesn't generally subscribe to the nasty Wahhabist perversion of Islam that is promoted by Saudi Arabia and is particularly prevalent across the Arab World.
As a result Saudi Arabia cannot automatically count on Indonesia's support in the same way it can count on some of its regional neighbours such as Malaysia which has long used its flag-carrier Malaysia Airlines to prompt the cause of Islamic inspired terrorism across the globe.
Therefore today's attacks have simply been an attempt to intimidate Indonesia into ratifying the COP21 draft agreement.
However the specific targets chosen all seem to have their own individual meaning;
- Starbucks: International summits like COP21 tend to be fuelled by a heady mix of adrenaline and caffeine. Starbucks is of course the leading global brand when it comes to coffee. In fact I think it's only Cuba and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK/North) that don't have at least one branch of Starbucks.
- Djakarta Theatre & the Sarinah Shopping Mall: With the Djakarta Theatre essentially being just a cinema these are a direct reference to the December 19th (19/12/16) attack in Mogadishu, Somalia that struck a cinema and a shopping mall. This is intended as a reminder to east/central Africa that they are sill under threat and had better obey.
- Pakistani Embassy: On December 16th 2014 (16/12/14) Pakistan experienced the worst terror attack in its history when Islamic inspired terrorists attacked a school on a military base in Peshawar killing 141 people including 132 children. Coming days after COP20 which had been held on a similar military base near Lima in Peru this was another threat to nations not to defy Saudi Arabia by taking action on climate change.
- Turkish Embassy: Certainly in the past five years Turkey has been a major global exporter of Islamic inspired terrorism. As a key ally of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) Turkey has been implicated in both the bombing of flight 7K9268 and the Paris Massacres. Just this Tuesday (12/1/16) it appears to have carried out the murder of 10 German tourists in a suicide bombing in Istanbul. The fact that both the US and the European Union (EU) are not only failing to punish Turkey but actually rewarding them for their vile behaviour sends a chill wind across the globe.
- United Nations Offices: As with national Embassies such as those of Pakistan and Turkey UN buildings are protected by the 1961 Vienna Convention on Diplomatic relations. This obligates the nations hosting those buildings to protect them to the extent that if that are attacked the injured party can hold the host nation responsible for the attack even if they had nothing to do with it. This is something Saudi Arabia is currently doing to Iran over the attack on its Embassy in Tehran on January 3rd (3/1/16).
13:15 on 14/1/16 (UK date).
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