Operation Misery: Month 5, Week 5, Day 2.

That really feels like the wrong post title to use because at this point Rihanna is currently back in her native Barbados more or less on holiday.

The fact that Barbados is part of the UK Commonwealth Realm obviously raises speculation that the UK will be getting access to all the juicy gossip and they were certainly very keen to let the world know they knew the moment that Rihanna arrived. However the fact that Rihanna is in Barbados rather than in France actually gives the UK less access to Rihanna because it is one thing to be able hear the opinions of onlookers and gawkers but quite another to actually have someone in the room with her. This change has led to some apparent dispute between the US and the UK which has led to former President George W Bush having a UK Prince Phillip style heart stent fitted. After all following the 2005 G8 Summit and winning his second term in 2004 George W Bush did seem to have something of a change of heart particularly when it came to African issues.

Getting back to the point though there have certainly been a lot of onlookers and gawkers over the past couple of days because Rihanna has been attending Barbados' annual carnival. This is something that happens every year and something Rihanna attends almost every year making it part of her normal, everyday life. Therefore the most politically relevant thing I can think to say about it is that if you've seen the photographs and videos you would immediately understand why Rihanna has a much more relaxed attitude towards nudity then, well, most other people on the planet. Over the coming weeks I expect Rihanna will be doing lots of family stuff, sunbathing and generally enjoying not being on tour. The only fly in the ointment is that Rihanna will have to attend a deposition in her case against Berdon LLP. However it's already been established that Berdon's legal team are happy to travel to Barbados and Barbados is happy for a deposition in the case to take place there.

Of course in the original plan we would currently be in a high stress period with Mali and Zimbabwe tearing themselves apart in the wake of controversial and disputed elections. As a result the US has been making sure that Rihanna is front and centre of everybody's attention. So for example radio stations in the US have been heavily playing Rihanna's current single "Right Now" ensuring that it gets pushed to the top of the Billboard dance/club chart. This is Rihanna's 20th single to top that chart putting her at number 2 in that chart only some 22 singles behind Madonna. Added to that over the weekend the US have been putting out lots of stories that make it appear that it is having an earnest discussion about the future of the Rihanna/Chris Brown operation especially after my involvement. These include an explosive demolition of a disused power generation plant in Bakersfield, California in which at least one onlooker was seriously injured, the incident in which driver used his car to deliberately target pedestrians walking on the Venice Beach boardwalk in California, a snowboarder who died after becoming buried in an icy tunnel in Oregon and a parachute instructor who died after his parachute failed in Mississippi. As the intention is to cause confusion all of these stories could be interpreted a number of ways however they all give the general impression that the US is now viewing the Rihanna/Chris Brown operation as a failure. Ahead of Chris Brown's mid-August Court appearance this raises the possibility that his handlers will be lifting their protection and he might actually be prosecuted for at least one of his legion of crimes. This obviously raises the tension for Rihanna who although is no longer dating him probably still cares enough about him not to want to see him sent to prison. It obviously also massively raises the pressure on Chris Brown who has responded by making a big show on Twitter of how him and Rihanna are no longer a couple. While I believe this to be true at this point Brown is clearly making sure that everybody knows in the hope that will lessen the clamour for him to be prosecuted.

Obviously being far more invested in Zimbabwe then anybody else the UK has also been contributing to the general level of confusion in a big way. However having been years in the planning the UK's effort is highly complicated and highly confusing meaning that it deserves a post all of its own. Canada has also decided to join in with a story about two young boys who were killed by an escaped python while staying with friends. This can obviously be interpreted in a number of ways not least in terms of jokes about penis size and paedophilia. However I suspect this mainly Canada being seen to contribute to the UK's Zimbabwe effort while reminding it's US neighbour that it is probably time to let the Rihanna operation go.

One thing that was most certainly not in the script was the continuation of the Egyptian revolution so alongside all this planned Rihanna stuff the US is also desperately trying to find out what is going on in Egypt. As a result Senators John McCain and Lindsey Graham are in Egypt on a legitimate fact finding mission. Also under pressure from Turkey whose Prime Minister Erdogan has his own reasons to feel nervous about events in Egypt US President Obama has controversially invited the worldwide leadership of the Muslim Brotherhood to a prestigious meeting at the White House. In the meantime the US's big terror alert is now focusing very much on Yemen. The fact the threat level is now described as "Extremely High" is supposed to make Egypt worried that the Saudis are about to use the Yemen route to punish Egypt for overthrowing Morsi. The deployment of evacuation of US nationals via military transport is supposed to make the Saudis worried that the US could be withdrawing its help to control the unruly elements of Yemen's militants. The killing of two suspected Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) in drone strikes is supposed to reassure the Saudis that the US is only bluffing about withdrawing its help.

The cumulative effect of all this is to heap pressure on the Egyptians to allow the US to force its way in as the lead negotiator between the Muslim Brotherhood and the Egyptian government. Out of laziness more than anything I suspect that the US will try to force the Egyptian government to share power with the Brotherhood in a sort of government of national unity. This is what Turkey and Saudi Arabia want and the US are likely to give to them because the US needs at least one of the other to give them a seat in the Syria game. I think this is all bad news for Egypt because the military's original plan seems to me to be a very good plan and the way to proceed. That is to say the government of national unity that is already in place continues until the security situation is stabilised and Egypt makes some key economic reforms before making way for a democratically elected government in the early part of 2014.

17:00 on 6/8/13.