Egypt's Continuing Revolution: Month 14, Week 4, Day 4.

The big news in Egypt today is the sensational announcement that former President Hosni Mubarak has been cleared of corruption charges and with no other outstanding allegations or convictions could be released from prison by the end of the week. In fact some sources initially reported that he'd already been released from prison. To me this seems very much like an attempt to promote discussion.

On the international level - particularly at today's special meeting of European Union (EU) Ambassadors - this was intended to promote discussion about how ridiculous the EU's demand that former President Mohamed Morsi is released from prison during the current state of emergency sounds. I don't know if the EU Ambassadors picked up on this point but they have called a special meeting of EU Foreign Ministers for Wednesday (21/8/13) to discuss Egypt. Despite all the talk of arms embargoes and suspension of aid money this primarily seems aimed at making sure that all voices within the EU are heard rather than being drowned out by militants such as the UK who seem intent on turning discussions about Egypt into discussions about Syria. For their part Saudi Arabia knowing which way the wind is blowing have pledged their support for Egypt's interim government of national unity and offered to make up for any EU aid money that is lost. This of course could also be a Saudi attempt to strengthen the Muslim Brotherhood who see themselves as mortal enemies of the Gulf Monarchs despite the strong Sunni bonds. So we shall see if the suspension of EU aid actually materialises and then if Saudi Arabia make good on their pledge. For their part the UK is trying to get the ball rolling on EU sanctions by announcing that it is ending all security co-operation with Egypt. As there is actually very little security co-operation between Egypt and the UK this is pretty meaningless in practical terms. It also seems a little odd because with the sudden re-emergence of the Climate Camp movement at an anti-fracking protest in Balcombe, UK leading up to this weekends Notting Hill Carnival it certainly looked as though the UK was trying to increase its influence with Egypt's government by giving it advice on how to police the Brotherhood camps that were cleared last week.

Within Egypt the Mubarak announcement was intended to start a national discussion about how far the Egyptian people would be prepared to go in reinstating Mubarak era security measures in order to combat the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamist terror groups along with the general level of violence and insecurity on Egypt's streets. Obviously a complete return to the Mubarak era would be completely unacceptable. However the complete disregard for law and order and security shown by the Morsi government is not the mark of a revolution. It is the mark of a failed state. As I mentioned in response to the re-opening of the Interior Ministry's department to monitor political and religious extremists one possible solution would be to re-open aspects of Mubarak's security apparatus but only allow them to act against groups that pose a real threat of violence rather than groups that merely hold a view that the government of the day doesn't agree with. After all as regular readers will know all too well even in supposedly democratic countries such as the UK political dissent has its limits.

Sadly the decision of how far the Egypt's security forces will have to go may not be their choice or even the choice of the Egyptian people. Instead it will be the choice of the Muslim Brotherhood and other terrorist groups because the more violence they are prepared to use the more restrictive the security forces will have to be in order to protect the Egyptian people. I actually think that has been the Brotherhoods long term plan all along. They mount increasingly violent attacks forcing the security forces to become ever more repressive. The Brotherhood then decry this repression as a return to the rule of Mubarak in the hope of getting anti-SCAF protesters and anti-Mubarak revolutionaries to join the Brotherhood in their quest to get their choice of dictator reinstated.

Although there is yet no evidence of a direct link to the Muslim Brotherhood another example of the general level of violence Egypt's security forces are facing came today in the Sinai with the killing of 25 off-duty police officers. According to the official report the two mini-buses in which the police officers were travelling were struck by Rocket Propelled Grenades (RPG) killing those on board. However based on some photographs from the scene it appears that the RPG's were just the opening salvo in a longer ambush which saw some of the police officers being taken off the mini-buses before being tied up and executed at the side of the road. It is curious that the Secretary General of the United Nations has called for yesterday's similar events at the Abu Zabaal prison to be investigated but seems to have little interest in finding out who carried out today's attack.

In slightly more positive news apart from a small disturbance in Sharqiya at dawn there is little evidence of the second day of the Brotherhoods planned week of protests actually taking place.

20:55 on 19/8/13.