Wednesday 23 March 2011

Operation Oil Theft: Day 5.

In Libya no-one is respecting the ceasefire with fighting around Ajdabiya in the east of the country as the rebels attempt to advance against government troops and at multiple locations in the west of the country as government forces attempt to consolidate their position. This problem has been created by the rebels decision not to respect the ceasefire and use it as an opportunity to advance out of Benghazi. This left government forces with no other option then to fight back because a one sided ceasefire is more commonly known as a surrender.

The only area in Libya where there has been a reduction in the level of violence is with the foreign forces who have dramatically reduced the number of attacks since the UNSC reconvened to assess how resolution 1973(2011) is being applied in practice. Foreign aircraft are still patrolling the skies over Libya and those aircraft are still carrying live weapons but they are hesitant to engage ground targets until either their rules of engagement have been clarified or the UN stop checking that the rules of engagement are being adhered too.

More details have also begun to emerge about the USAF F-15 that crashed on 21/3/11. The USAF have released a statement saying that one of their F-15 Strike Eagle aircraft was operating over rebel territory near Benghazi when it suffered mechanical failure causing it to crash. The two crewmen both successfully ejected and landed in a field of sheep. Due to the strength of that statement the USAF were making sure that no-one involved would be unaware of the meaning of the incident.

The USAF deliberately crashed one of their ancient F-15 aircraft in order to send out two messages. The first was to make sure that foreign forces engaged in operations against Libya were drilled in what to do if an aircraft was shot down. As the shooting down of an American F-117 over Serbia caused America so many problems this was also an attempt to get a reaction from the Chinese observers however due to the cost of the operation I'm not sure what of equal or greater value the Americans were hoping to gain.

The second message was to the Libyan rebels telling them to withdraw back to Benghazi. This is because the UNSC is currently assessing the legality of 1973(2011). If the rebels remain in Benghazi then the resolution is legal however if they attempt to advance into Libya proper the resolution becomes a threat to the territorial integrity of Libya and therefore illegal under Chapter VII. I know that this is a contradiction with statements made by US Secretary of State but America's position on this issue is confused and they are trying to make people roar.

In preparation for the UNSC meeting on Thursday (24/3/11) where the area of operation in 1972(2011) is expected to significantly reduced members of the foreign coalition are meeting to discuss how much of Libya's oil fields will have to go to them in order to make it worth their while continuing operations. So basically Britain, France, Spain, Belgium and the Netherlands will today be meeting in Europe to decide where to draw a line of partition across Africa. Based on the history of the continent what could possibly go wrong(!)

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