Operation Featherweight: Month 29, Week 1, Day 4.

On October 17th (17/10/16) combined Iraqi Peshmerga and Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) began an operation around the northern Iraqi city of Mosul.

The purpose of this operation was to move forces into positions from where they could plan and then launch an operation to liberate the city which has been under the occupation of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) since the summer of 2014.

Unfortunately on November 3rd (3/11/16) my Internet router was put out of action. For a remote worker this is the equivalent of having your office blown up. Whilst you were out. So you'll excuse me if it takes me a little bit of time to get back into the swing of things.

The original plan involved combined ISF and Peshmerga forces taking up positions around Mosul on three fronts. The North, the East and the South.

The eastern or Kalak Front has always been the most advanced of the three.

On October 24th (24/10/16) the Peshmerga had reached the town of Top Zawa which is around 10km (6 miles) from Mosul. Under the plan this is as far as the Peshmerga will advance towards Mosul so it fell to the ISF alone to continue the advance. By October 31st (31/10/16) the ISF had succeeded in liberating an area known as Gogjali.  Located less then 150metres/yards from Mosul by non-locals this is often mistaken for being Mosul's most eastern district.

The northern or Tel Skuf Front saw almost as rapid progress.

By October 24th (24/10/16) the Peshmerga had surrounded around 10 villages around the town of Bashiqa & Bahzani which sits around 14km (8 miles) north-east of Mosul. The problem is though that rather than fully securing those villages the Peshmerga had simply Strong-Pointed them. That is to say that they had established a loose cordon around them but stopped short of actually entering them.

On November 7th (7/11/16) the Peshmerga did finally move to enter Bashiqa & Bahzani. By November 16th (16/11/16) they had succeeded in fully liberating Bashiqa. As a former resident of Brighton & Hove  I obviously think that it remains important for the Peshmerga to continue to liberate Bahzani as well along with the five villages they continue to strong-point. However it's worth noting that those villages are so small they're closer to sheep farms than villages in the traditional sense.

The southern front is where progress has been the most slow. This is divided into the Gwer Front to the south-east and the Qarrayah Front to the south-west.

On the Gwer Front on November 1st (1/11/16) the ISF had advanced to strong-point the town of Hamdaniya which sits 13km (8 miles) south-east of Mosul. They have since fully secured Hamdaniya and have advanced to secure all positions between Hamdaniya and Mosul including the areas of Shahrazad and Khuwaytilah. Like Gogjali these sit only a few hundred metres/yards from Mosul proper.

On the Qarrayah Front on November 1st (1/11/16) the most advanced position was the town of Ayn Nasr. This sits 22km (13 miles) south-west of Mosul and was actually liberated by the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) militia element of the ISF.

On November 5th (5/11/16) the ISF advanced on and entered the town of Haman al-Alil. The last significant town to the south this sits some 13km (8 miles) from Mosul. On November 7th (7/11/16) the ISF had succeeded in fully securing Haman al-Alil. Sadly in the process they uncovered three mass graves containing the bodies of 350  people who'd been murdered by ISIL.

This fear that ISIL would massacre large numbers of civilians in retaliation for the operation is exactly why I considered it vital that towns like Bashiqa & Bahzani were fully secured rather than simply strong-pointed.

Since then the ISF have advanced to fully secure the towns of Bakhira to the west and Tawajinat al-Jadidadh to the west along with all areas in between. This establishes as roughly 23km (14 mile) line of control some 7km (4 miles) to the south of Mosul.

The Americans sole motivation behind launching this Mosul operation now was to produce a big chest-beating, flag waving victory that would propel Hillary Clinton to the Presidency in the November 8th (8/11/16) election.

In order to achieve this the US had done a deal with ISIL that would see them mount only a symbolic defence of Mosul while they fled west back into Syria. For this purpose a vast 20,000kmsq (12,000 milesq) area to the west of Mosul which I dubbed; "The Falls Road" had been left entirely undefended.

This all changed on October 29th (29/10/16) when the PMF - almost entirely independently of the ISF - launched an operation to reach the town of Tal Afar from the town of Ayn Nasr on the Qarrayah Front.

Tal Afar sits around 65km (40 miles) north-west of Ayn Nasr on the main H47 Highway between Mosul and Iraq's border with Syria. Therefore liberating it along with all the positions between Tal Afar and Ayn Nasr would completely close the Falls Road cutting off ISIL's escape route into Syria.

This opening of a western front actually met with significant opposition from the US. For example the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) - refused to provide the ISF forces on the front with any air support.

Forces on the front also claim that the Turkish allied Nujaifi tribal militia were providing ISIL with their positions and that CJTFOIR was electronically jamming their communications. However with my own communications cut at the time I am unable to verify those claims. I can simply acknowledge that they were made.

Despite these problems on November 16th (16/11/16) the PMF were able to complete their advance by liberating Tal Afar airport. This sits just 4km (2.5 miles) outside of Tal Afar itself. With control of the airport the PMF now control the H47 Highway west of Tal Afar meaning that they have succeeded in closing the Falls Road even if they do not liberate Tal Afar itself.

So while ideally I would like to see Bahzani along with Bashiqa fully liberated I am happy to say that as of November 16th (16/11/16) forces are now finally in position to prepare for an operation to liberate Mosul.

The problem is that with the entire operation being centred around the November 8th (8/11/16) US Presidential election the US certainly wasn't going to wait for forces to be in their proper positions between entering Mosul itself.

The first assault on Mosul proper began on November 1st (1/11/16).

Having liberated Gogjali the previous day the ISF then pressed into al-Quds neighbourhood which is directly west of Gogjali. At the same time they also entered the Judaydat al-Mufti neighbourhood. This sits around 3km (2 miles) and several neighbourhoods south of al-Quds.

Since then the ISF have advanced a full 1km (0.6miles) into the al-Karamah neighbourhood which sits directly to the west of al-Quds. To the south-east of the city they have also advanced into the Younis Sabawwi neighbourhood which sits between the al-Quds and the Judaydat al-Mufti neighbourhood and the Intisar neighbourhood which is directly west of both the al-Quds and Judaydat al-Mufti neighbourhoods.

The ISF have also entered the Falastin and Salam neighbourhoods which make up the south-eastern tip of the city along the Kirkuk-Mosul road.

On November 4th (4/11/16) the ISF also entered the Sadam/Zahra neighbourhood. This sits roughly 5km (3 miles) north of the al-Quds neighbourhood. Since then they have entered the 9 neighbourhoods between Sadam/Zahra and al-Karamah. They have also entered 4 neighbourhoods west of Sadam/Zahra as far as al-Zuhur which sits around 2km (1.2 miles) from Sadam/Zahra.

As a result the ISF now have a presence in 16 neighbourhoods arcing from al-Zuhur to the north-east to al-Karamah. The ISF also have a presence in 5 neighbourhoods arcing from al-Karamah to Salam to the south-east.

At around 18:10 on 24/11/16 (UK date) I'm going to have to pick this up after dinner.

Edited at around 19:45 on 24/11/16 (UK date) to add;

Progress inside of Mosul itself has been agonisingly slow.

Some 23 days after the ISF first entered the Judaydat al-Mufti neighbourhood they are still battling ISIL for control of the area. Of the 16 neighbourhoods in which they have established a presence the ISF are only considered to be in full control of 9 of them.

In no small part this lack of a significant breakthrough is due to the nature of urban warfare. It is always slow and it is always grinding.

Although they may not realise people in western nations actually have some experience of this. When the police are faced with a hostage situation. The operation at the Bataclan theatre on that black Friday in Paris, France sticks in my memory.

If you've ever watched a situation like that on the news you would know that the police turn up at the building and then spend a short period of time drawing up a tactical plan. They then storm the building which takes as long as it takes to win a gun battle in a narrow corridor.

If you want to liberate a city like Mosul you need to do that on every floor of every building on every street of the entire city. That takes time.

One thing that it make the situation worse inside of Mosul is that in many of these neighbourhoods the streets are extremely narrow. Single lane traffic in some places. The armoured HUMVEE's and Mine Resistant, Ambush Protected (MRAP) vehicles that the ISF are using to move around inside Mosul are extremely large.

That means that if the vehicle at the head of the column takes a wrong turn or gets damaged there is no way for the other vehicles in the column to drive around it or turn around. This makes it extremely easy for a small number of ISIL fighters to successfully ambush much larger ISF columns.

The CNN reporter Arwa Damon who was embedded with the ISF as they entered Mosul got a sharp lesson in exactly this sort of problem over the weekend of November 4th (4/11/16) to November 6th (6/11/16). 

Within a few hours all but 8 of the vehicles in their 35 vehicle convoy had been put out of action in a series of ambushes. That forced them to hole up in a building and engage in essentially a 28 hour long firefight until another column of vehicles could arrive to evacuate them, the wounded and the dead. If you've ever seen the movie "Blackhawk Down" that, basically.

Obviously it is extremely easy for me to sit here and be critical of the way that the operation has been planned and is being conducted. It is though a lot more difficult for me to suggest improvements that I think can be made.

Up until now I've been relatively happy to talk about what forces are being used and where they are located. That is because although accurate the information I'm publishing is not so accurate to be of any real military value. Also at distances of around 10km (6 miles) over open desert/brush land the different forces can not only see each other they can listen in to each other's communications.

It is talking about how you would move forward from those positions that I'm much more sensitive about. Although I think it's safe to assume that the Mosul operation is now well underway this will not be the last city that people will have to fight ISIL in. Therefore I'm not overjoyed about speculating on the tactics that may be used in those future battles.

However I can't help but notice that a number of the neighbourhoods that the ISF are battling for control of such as al-Quds, al-Karamah and Ikhaa sit alongside a main road - the M2 Highway, Hawler Road. This is a multi-lane carriageway more than capable of accommodating columns of HUMVEE's and MRAP's.

Therefore surely it would be better to secure the length of that road - by which I mean the city block either side needed for fire control - before trying to clear each neighbourhood. You can then divide the neighbourhoods into sections and work through them one-by-one. Meanwhile the road can serve as both a supply route and a humanitarian corridor allowing civilians to escape the fighting.

Sadly progress is going to get even slower when the ISF finally cross the Tigris River from east to west Mosul. This is known as the old city and is a warren of narrow streets and alleyways that are barely suited to people on horseback let alone columns of big, modern armoured vehicles.

The length of time that it will take to fully liberate Mosul means that the situation in Tal Afar becomes more critical by the day. By controlling the airport the PMF control H47 cutting off ISIL's escape route. Therefore it is not strictly speaking militarily necessary for them to enter the town itself.

However you still have the problem of all the civilians trapped in Tal Afar and in the numerous towns and villages between Tal Afar and Mosul. Not only are they at risk of being murdered and dumped into yet another mass graves they are also living under siege conditions meaning that vital supplies of things like food and medicine are dwindling.

Therefore if - as seems likely - the liberation of Mosul is going to take months rather than weeks someone is going to have to go into those towns to rescue those civilians. The question is who?

Sitting at the airport just 4km (2.5 miles) away the PMF are certainly the most local. However throughout the preparations for the operation Turkey has been putting about scare stories that if they enter the city the PMF will massacre the Turkmen that make up the majority of the population. This is obviously false information being put about in the hope of keeping ISIL's western escape route into Syria open.

Also there is a clear Turkish concern that with the black propaganda being proved false the Shia Turkmen will then side with the Shia elements of the PMF that rescued them. That will significantly reduce Turkish influence in an area that their President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan one day hopes to annex as part of his new Ottoman Empire.

However it is clear that ISIL's presence in Tal Afar and the surrounding areas is negligible at best. Therefore rather than being an out-and-out combat operation I think that Tal Afar will require something closer to a peacekeeping or policing operation. That is to say rather than going and battling lots of ISIL fighters the main objective will be to provide security to the local residents and re-establish vital services such as food supplies.

While I certainly do not believe Erdogan's horror stories about the PMF I am aware that they are a series of militias made up of, shall we say, enthusiastic amateurs rather than professional soldiers. So while they are extremely well suited to aggressive combat operations they wouldn't be my first choice for the type of operation required in Tal Afar.

As of yesterday (23/11/16) the Peshmerga have arrived from Sinjar/Shingal some 60km (35 miles) west along H47 to link up with the PMF at Tal Afar airport. The Peshmerga have a well earned reputation both for fairness and professionalism. So of the forces currently located at the airport I would prefer to see the Peshmerga to conduct any possible operation in Tal Afar.

The problem is that Erdogan is possibly even more opposed to the Peshmerga entering Tal Afar.

Employing his current position that any Kurd anywhere in the World is a member of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) Erdogan has repeatedly threatened to invade Iraq to protect Turkmen from "PKK Terror!" should the Peshmerga go anywhere near Tal Afar. The fact that this would allow Erdogan to annex northern Iraq as part of his new Ottoman Empire is apparently completely unrelated to his fear of "PKK Terror!"

The obvious solution would be for the Iraqi police to take the lead in Tal Afar. They however are located at the complete otherside of Mosul trying to fight their way through. I'm still trying to work out why we're attacking east to west rather than west to east.

I am not yet saying that there needs to be a Tal Afar operation. However if the need arises I think the Peshmerga are the best placed to conduct it. If Erdogan has a problem with that I've got a few suggestions of what he can do with his opposition. Even if they're not fit to print here.

I am though mindful of the fact that Erdogan has continued to position forces right on Turkey's border with Iraq and has continued to conduct airstrikes against northern Iraq.

As we wait for the US Presidential transition I think the best we can hope for from outgoing President Obama is that he stays out of it. The biggest worry is that he will give Erdogan the go ahead to annex northern Iraq simply to spite Donald Trump for defeating Hillary Clinton.

So the Tal Afar situation is one that I think requires careful monitoring.

Today (24/11/16) ISIL have carried out a truck bombing in the town of Hillah. This sits around 100km (60 miles) south of the capital Baghdad and around 500km (300 miles) south of Mosul. The current death toll stands at 100 - mostly Shia pilgrims.

ISIL are a nhilistic group with a particular hatred of Shia Muslims. Therefore it is easy to over analyse why they have decided to kill a large number of Shias. Particularly when they are being handed defeat after defeat by Shia's in and around Mosul.

Sadly though this latest bombing just further demonstrates that the liberation of Mosul will not mean the end of ISIL's presence in Iraq. There are other battles still to come.

However even I think that the Mosul operation has now passed the point of no return.

21:35 on 24/11/16 (UK date).