Since October 17th (17/10/16) combined Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) and Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga have been moving into a position to plan an operation to liberate Mosul. This northern Iraqi city has been under the occupation of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).
As part of their preparations the combined forces have been moving to encircle Mosul on three sides - the north, the east and the south.
Since October 24th (24/10/16) the eastern front has emerged as the most advanced. This was the day that the Peshmerga secured the town of Top Zawa just 8km (5 miles) from Mosul. This is as far as the Peshmerga will advance towards Mosul on that front. Amid either a collapse or a tactical withdrawal by ISIL on the following day (25/10/16) the ISF element entered and secured the town of Bazwaia which sits just 2km (1 mile) from Mosul. From there the ISF elite Counter Terrorism Force (CTF/Golden Division) have been launching raids into Gogjali which for all practical purposes in within Mosul.
On Monday (31/10/16) the CTF launched an operation to liberate Gogjali. Technically Gogjali sits outside of Mosul. However as within many other cities if you were wandering about on the ground it is unlikely that you would notice the administrative boundary unless you were already aware of it. Today the CTF have declared they have liberated the Gogjali district along with the State TV building that sits at the edge of parkland between Gogjali district and Qazah district which sits directly to the west. In literally the last hour or so the ISF have also announced that they have entered the Judaydat al-Mufti district which sits directly to the south of the Qazah district.
This is all consistent with a frontal assault on Mosul from east to west. This is the same tactic that the ISF deployed in the May-June 2016 Battle of Fallujah with disastrous results. Although the ISF do not publish official casualty figures I was hearing lots of rumours of over 100 killed on the first day. That was the price of simply standing still. The success of this tactic in Mosul is entirely dependent on ISIL sticking to their agreement with the US and only mounting a symbolic defence of the city while the majority of their forces escape west along the Falls Road into the heartlands around the city of Raqqa in Syria.
On Saturday (29/10/16) the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) who are part of the ISF opened up a new front from Qayyarah to the south of Mosul to the town of Tal Afar to the west of Mosul. The intention being to establish a defensive line cutting the Falls Road and preventing ISIL from escaping Mosul. That obviously makes it impossible for ISIL to stick with their deal with the US and only mount a symbolic defence of Mosul.
Although I accept that my information may be a little out of date the PMF seem to have only advanced as far as the village of Abu Hujaira which is around 40km (25 miles) south-east of Tal Afar. This means that the PMF are roughly only around two thirds of the way to their objective.
In protest the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) - is refusing to provide air support on the western front. Meanwhile Turkey has begun massing tanks on its border with Iraq in Silopi which is around 90km (55 miles) north of Tal Afar. The implicit threat being that Turkey will invade Iraq to keep the Falls Road open.
So at this point the Mosul operation is neither one thing nor the other. A dog's dinner, a pigs ear. A whore's c*ntfest. The barely translatable metaphors really write themselves.
To the north of Mosul the Peshmerga have made some progress fully securing some of the villages they had only previously strong-pointed. Crucially though this does not include the major town of Bashiqa & Bhazani.
Despite this on Monday (31/10/16) the ISF did launch operations against Hay Saddam and Hay Karkoukli. As with Gogjali these are both districts that technically fall just outside of Mosul between the M2 Motorway and the Mosul - Bashiqa Highway. Although it seems that every location in and around Mosul has at least 12 different names it appears that the ISF have today been able to declare those districts liberated.
On the southern front there appears to have been no progress since Saturday. On the Gwer Front to the south-east the most forward position continues to be Nimrud while on the south-western Qarrayah Front the most forward position appears to be Ayn Nasr 25km (15 miles) to the west.
It appears that neither the ISF nor the Peshmerga are in control of the town of Hamman al-Alil just 8km (5 miles) north of the Ayn Nasr - Nimrud line. However much of the focus in that area has gone on opening up the western front to Tal Afar.
17:25 on 1/11/16 (UK date).
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