The Magananville Terror Attack.

On Monday (13/6/16) night France experienced yet another terrorist attack. This time in the Maganville commune/suburb of Paris.

The first victim was Jean-Baptiste Salvaing who is effectively the Assistant Chief of Police for the near-by Les Mureaux district. As Salvaing was entering his home after returning from work he was ambushed by Larossi Abballa who screamed "Allahu Akbar! (God is Greatest)" as he stabbed and killed Salvaing. Abballa then forced his way into the Salvaing family home taking Jean-Baptiste's wife Jessica Salvaing - also a police officer - and the couple's, unnamed, 3 year old child hostage.

Following a stand-off lasting several hours’ French anti-terror police stormed the building shooting and killing Abballa. However by that point Jessica Salvaing had already been murdered leaving the surviving child as an orphan.

As I said as the topic was being extensively discussed during the Eurovision Song Contest France is certainly no stranger to Islamist terror attacks. In fact excluding active warzones I think the only nation that has seen more terror attacks that France recently is Israel.

At one extreme there were the November 13th 2015 (13/11/15) massacres in Paris that killed 130. This was the work of a military unit of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) that had been sent from the battlefields of Syria and Iraq to hide among the Muslim community in Belgium in order to carry out large-scale terror attacks across Europe.

At the other extreme on May 27th (27/5/16) a uniformed French soldier was attacked with a knife by two attackers who screamed about avenging France's killing of Muslims in Syria. That was very clearly the work of what are termed "Lone-Wolves" who radicalised themselves by reading about ISIL on the Internet. As such ISIL had no direct role in planning or ordering that attack.

Monday's attack seems to sit somewhere between those two extremes.

The attacker Abballa had been arrested and convicted in 2013 of being part of an Al Qaeda network sending recruits to training camps in Pakistan. As such he is clearly not self-radicalised and has existing contacts with known terrorists.

However there is absolutely no indication that he himself had received formal training and since being released from prison Abballa has been closely monitored by the French security services. As such it is known that he has not travelled to join ISIL and has not had any recent contact with known terrorists.

Prior to launching the attack Abballa formally pledged allegiance to ISIL. As such it is fair to describe him as a supporter of the group.

However in terms of direction by ISIL Abballa seemed to be acting on nothing more than a statement issued by ISIL prior to the start of Ramadan calling on supporters to launch attacks during this Holy month. This spoke specifically of attacking enemies of the group in their homes. However this is a standing order to all ISIL supporters rather than Abballa specifically. ISIL actually issued pretty much the exact same general order last year.

Following the attack ISIL did issue a claim of responsibility. However as I've mentioned before ISIL are perfectly capable of using the Internet to read international news sites. Particularly any occasion where their name is mentioned.

During the stand-off with police Abballa spent around 15 minutes broadcasting his actions live on the Internet using the Facebook Live system. This type of Internet live streaming was a big talking point at the Eurovision Song Contest. France itself contributed with a young woman broadcasting her own suicide live on Periscope.

However I don't think that Abballa's actions were intended as part of this discussion. Instead all terrorists - particularly ISIL - are very focused on what is termed the "Propaganda of the Deed." The intention being to make the act of violence echo amongst a much larger audience then those who directly witnessed it. This is done either to spread fear or inspire fellow supporters. Therefore I think Abballa was simply making use of the new technology without thought for the wider technical implications.

During his broadcast Abballa claimed that he was aware of a secret plot that ISIL had in place for the Euro 2016 football tournament. Obviously he gave no further details other than teasing that Euro 2016 would become a graveyard.

By definition terrorists seek to use fear and terror to achieve their aims. As such making a wild threat that something big and secret is coming is a rather cost effective way of achieving that fear factor without having to go to the trouble of actually carrying out an attack. We saw this particularly after the Brussels attacks where ISIL's European cell seemed to intentionally leave indicators that they were playing to attack Euro 2016 for the police to find.

In what seems to be in a similar vein following his death Abballa was found be in possession of a hitlist of other potential targets. Obviously I would like to know how detailed this list was. For example did it include details of the target's addresses and schedules? After all Abballa is someone who has been itching to take action for quite some time and therefore may have aspired to a larger killing spree. However the fact that he didn't destroy the list once he knew he was going to be killed/captured suggests to me that he was simply trying to spread more fear.

Abballa's actions - particularly his graveyard claim - already seems to have inspired other European ISIL sympathisers. Yesterday someone sent notes to several Belgian police stations detailing an ISIL plot to attack during Euro 2016. It talks about an ISIL combat unit being dispatched 10 days ago with orders to infiltrate Europe via Turkey and launch attacks in France and Belgium.

Obviously in response to this I don't think it would be a good idea to reduce security measures. However it strikes me as the work of someone who wants to spread fear but lacks the capacity to carry out an actual attack.

In hunting down the person(s) responsible for these notes the first place the police should look is the Molenbeek district of Brussels. This remains a hotbed of ISIL sympathisers. Just last Friday (10/6/16) two police cars were burnt out there in petrol bomb attacks. At Eurovision Belgium promised to get Molenbeek sorted. They now need to translate words into action.

In terms of reducing the terror threat is faces the French government really isn't doing itself any favours.

As I've said numerous times following the Paris Massacres France should have invoked the NATO's Article 5 mutual defence clause. If US President Obama refused they should have forced the issue. Instead though France introduced United Nations Security Council (UNSC) Resolution 2249 (2015). This sought to reduce the obligation on all nations to defeat ISIL created by the Chapter 7 Resolution 2170 (2014) by telling nations they could continue to support ISIL if that's how they feel.

The French government is of course a vocal supporter of the Islamist insurgency within Syria. It frequently refers to the "Legitimate Aspirations" of groups such as ISIL, Al Qaeda and their associates. It's hard to imagine what more the French government could do to tell its own Muslim population that this terrorism is legitimate and that they should join in.

France's President Hollande though seems to have found a way.

Much like Obama before him Hollande has decided that it is his legacy to win the Nobel Peace Prize by finally solving the conflict between Israel and Palestine. The problem is that the conflict in Syria and the rise of radical Islamist groups that France supports has ended any chance of peace between Israel and Palestine. Possibly for an entire generation.

Although as with all conflicts there are problems on both sides on the Palestinian side the problem has long been that if more moderate factions such as Fatah do too much to pursue peace with Israel they will lose support to more extreme elements such as Hamas. Prior to the rise of groups like ISIL much of the work was focused on getting Hamas and therefore the Palestinian population as a whole to be more moderate. This rise of ISIL has meant that there is a limit to how far Hamas can move in the pursuit of peace without them losing support and ISIL becoming the dominant force in Palestine.

As a result there is currently no partner for peace on the Palestinian side.

However much like Obama Hollande wants the glory but he doesn't want to do the hard work. So instead he's been clumsily trying to exploit this current wave of ISIL inspired stabbing attacks in Israel to put pressure on the Israeli government to sign up to France's peaceplan. Essentially everytime one of these stabbing attacks France defends the attackers and claims that Hollande's plan is Israel's only chance for peace.

As a result you have this churning French government propaganda machine telling French Muslims that terrorism against the Zionists is legitimate and something to be celebrated.

Basically Hollande has dropped to his knees and demanded that French Muslims carry out terror attacks against French citizens.

17:20 on 15/6/16 (UK date).