Away from the fight against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) in Syria and Iraq there is still there is still the crisis of the refugees fleeing from the group.
Back on September 22nd (22/9/15) the European Union (EU) passed a package of measures to respond to the crisis. Unusually for the EU this measures were passed by majority vote with 23 nations voting in favour and four - Romania, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary - voting against. Normally the EU likes to reach decisions through consensus between the member states.
These measures can be read in full here; http://ec.europa.eu/dgs/home-affairs/what-is-new/news/news/2015/20150923_1_en.htm
However the main points are;
1. Relocate 160,000 refugees amongst the EU member states using a quota system. This will involve deploying "Migration Management Support Teams" made up of officials form the EU's FRONTEX border agency, the European Asylum Support Office (EASO), the EU police agency (EUROPOL) and the EU justice agency (EUROJUST) to designated "Hotspot" nations such as Greece, Italy and Hungary.
2. Activating the EU Civil Protection Mechanism. This allows personnel such as police officers and border guards along with humanitarian equipment (excluding food aid) to be shared between member states. This will allow for the deployment of Rapid Border Intervention Teams (RABIT's) to areas where national border controls are being overwhelmed.
Both of these measures are to be funded through the EU's Asylum, Migration and Integration Fund (AMIF) and the Internal Security Fund (ISF). The hope being that this will allow for the border controls implemented between EU member states to be lifted.
3. Co-ordinate diplomatically with nations outside of the EU to help them better accommodate refugees themselves. This is primarily aimed at non-EU members states such as Serbia and Macedonia that sit between EU member states but are not themselves members.
However following the long established principle that refugees are best cared for as close as possible to the place they are seeking refuge from this will also see the EU work with Turkey, Jordan and Lebanon along with the United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) to improve conditions in local camps by boosting funding to E1bn (USD1.11bn).
Unfortunately these measures will take time to implement. The EU has set itself the target of 6 months (April 2016) for full implementation although some of the easier steps are already being taken. For example on Wednesday (28/10/15) German police and border guards were deployed to Slovenia under the RABIT scheme.
The delay in implementation though continues to be the four EU members who voted against the measures and in particular Hungary.
Even before this current crisis Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban had crafted out a reputation for himself as a nasty little bigot. He has made it quite clear that he doesn't like Muslims, he doesn't like Jews, he doesn't like homosexuals, he doesn't like people with dark skin and he's not a big fan of women either.
So despite the measures being adopted as EU policy Hungary is continuing to refuse to implement them until the EU secures it's border like Hungary has done by building kilometres of fencing.
The problem with this is that the EU's main border is Greece which is a country made up of thousands of islands with 13,676km (8,498 miles) of coastline - the 11th largest in the World. As a result it is completely impossible to seal a border of that size without draining the sea.
Unfortunately rather then challenging Orban on his madness perhaps by getting him to explain how he intends to seal Greece's border or reminding him of the consequences of failing to implement EU policy the EU has decided to indulge him by getting Turkey to stop the flow of refugees out of it's country.
This has very serious implications for core objective of solving the problem at source by defeating ISIL. In order to achieve that aim the EU needs to be putting pressure on Turkey to end it's attacks on anti-ISIL forces in Syria and Iraq, dismantle the protective air dome it has established over ISIL's heartlands around Raqqa in Syria and stop the flow of fighters and supplies between ISIL and Turkey.
Just today two refugees from Raqqa were found beheaded in the Turkish city of Sanliurfa. This suggests that either despite all the assurances to the contrary ISIL are still being granted to freedom to cross Turkey's border at will or the Turkish state is actually operating on their behalf.
While the EU is being forced to seek Turkey's co-operation over the refugee crisis it is unable to exert that pressure on Turkey and in fact seems to be willing to make concessions to Turkey. For example at a October 15th (15/10/15) summit with Turkey the EU ended up giving away E3bn (USD3.3bn) along with visa free travel between Turkey and the EU and a promise to re-start Turkey's accession to the EU which has long stalled.
With ISIL seeming to continue to operate freely across Turkey's borders the idea of lifting border controls on visitors from Turkey to the EU seems a particularly bad idea.
Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan has clearly decided that the plight of the refugees is something that he can exploit in his never ending quest for absolute power.
So on October 21st (21/10/15) 114 refugees arrived by boat on Royal Air Force (RAF) base Akrotiri in Cyprus which is considered British sovereign territory and from where the UK is conducting it's anti-ISIL air operations.
With this being a never before used refugee route it struck me as Turkey sending the UK the message that the refugee crisis can get better or it can get worse depending on Turkey getting what it wants. After all Turkey's continued military occupation of northern Cyprus - an EU member state - is one of the main reasons why Turkey's EU membership continues to be delayed.
Erdogan then made the threat much more explicit by warning that Russian military intervention in Syria would lead to millions more refugees heading to the EU.
This is inconsistent with the situation in Syria where the advance of the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) has prompted millions of Syrians flee into Syrian government controlled areas around the capital Damascus. Now JAF are being pushed back with Russia help the areas they are leaving are being found to be completely empty.
The message from Erdogan though seems to be that if the EU doesn't do more to protect JAF and ISIL more refugees will simply be sent to the EU from camps in Turkey.
Despite the EU's overtures to Turkey Orban and Hungary still seem to be standing firm in their refusal to implement the common refugee policy. Sadly this has forced other EU nations to follow Hungary's example by temporarily closing their borders because Hungary can't be granted an opt out from the policy by refusing to implement it and forcing other EU members to pick up the slack.
On a slightly different note in my post on Wednesday (28/10/15) I commented on how Russia is no knocking on the door of the protective dome that the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) - has created over ISIL's heartland around Raqqa. I also commented on how Russia is now reaching out to the Kurdish dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) who are located to the north of that area.
Today the US has announced that it is sending 50 Special Forces operators to assist the SDF with logistics and co-ordinating with CJTFOIR air-strikes.
If you are part of the US domestic audience this is supposed to sound as though the US is moving forward with plans to supply the SDF directly from Iraq despite Turkish opposition. However if you are part of the Turkish governmental audience it is supposed to sound as though the US is strengthening the protective dome over Raqqa by preventing Russian air-strikes against ISIL and Russia supplying the SDF.
In reality it strikes me as yet another stalling tactic intended to buy US President Barack Obama time while he decides what to do next.
This is unfortunate because I don't think Russia wants to swoop in a steal the glory of defeating ISIL from the US. However if delaying tactics are all Obama has to offer then it is going to become inevitable.
17:10 on 30/10/15 (UK date).
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