Operation Featherweight: Month 15, Week 1, Day 7.

On August 28th (28/8/15) Turkey formally joined Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) - the US-led coalition against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and associated groups such as Al Qaeda's Syrian affiliate Al Nusra Front (ANF).

It appears that a condition of this agreement was CJTFOIR blocking me from their Twitter account on which they release details of the air-strikes they have carried out. Initially this wasn't too much of a problem because I simply got the details off the US Department of Defence (DoD) website. However in mid-September the DoD stopped updating that website.

Obviously this is not my first day on the Internet. Therefore there are a few things I can do to get around the CJTFOIR block - simply following someone who re-Tweets the link for example. However I am hesitant to do this because I'm worried it will provide CJTFOIR with the excuse they're clearly looking for to stop providing details of the air-strikes they're carrying out altogether.

That is because although they were never particularly robust the intensity of CJTFOIR operations in Syria has now fallen to such a level it is embarrassing. The reason for this is that another condition of Turkey joining CJTFOIR is that it stops providing air-strikes in support of the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG).

Following a string of victories against ISIL the YPG's most forward position to the south is the village of Ain Issa which sits just 50km (30 miles) to the north of Raqqa - ISIL's de facto capital in Syria. As a result Turkey's demand that CJTFOIR cannot attack ISIL close to YPG positions has had the effect of creating this massive aerial dome over ISIL's strongholds under which they cannot be attacked.

This is the type of defensive tactic a military air force uses when it is trying to protect an area and the people within from attack. For example Israel has it's "Iron Dome" system to protect itself from attack.

Amid all this the YPG's press office has also been rather quiet. Part of the reason for this is that having established this vast 33,000km^2 (20,000mile^2) buffer-zone the YPG has really reached the extent of what it can do without support. Their role now is to protect that buffer-zone by maintaining a defensive line and conducting patrols. If this task is going well nothing happens and there is nothing to report.

However away from the single anti-ISIL strike it has conducted as part of CJTFOIR Turkey has also been bombing Kurdish positions within Turkey and Kurdish positions in Iraq. As part of these attacks - particularly in Iraq - Turkey has been flying attack aircraft extremely low and extremely aggressively over YPG positions as they make their way to and from their targets.

This has created a deeply unsettling situation whereby when the YPG see jets flying overhead they're not sure whether they're going to attack ISIL or bomb the YPG positions themselves. Under those circumstances rather then putting pressure on the YPG to provide more regular updates I actually think I should probably be over there doing it for them.

Although I did have my hand forced with the start of Russian anti-ISIL operations in Syria this week I have been extremely hesitant to bring up this protective dome that CJTFOIR have built for ISIL. My fear was that if I made clear to ISIL that they were free to attack YPG positions without the fear of being met by CJTFOIR air-strikes then that is exactly what ISIL would do.

Sadly there seems to be some indications that my fears have been realised. At dawn yesterday ISIL launched their most brutal assault on YPG positions around the city of Hasakah since their attempts to capture the city was repelled in late August. Hasakah of course sits on the southern boundary of the YPG controlled buffer-zone some 160km (95 miles) east of Ain Issa.

As is their standard tactic ISIL began the assault with three Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Devices (VBIED's) - including one on a motorcycle - being driven at YPG lines. These were then followed up by two waves of infantry. Fortunately the YPG were able to repel these assaults killing 28 ISIL fighters and destroying an ISIL Armoured Personnel Carrier (APC). 

In the process 7 YPG fighters lost their lives.

On this occasion CJTFOIR did conduct strikes against this ISIL attack destroying two ground (infantry) units. However I get the impression that for the benefit of Turkey CJTFOIR were forced to disguise these strikes as strategic attacks on ISIL oil facilities rather then support for the YPG.

Away from the buffer-zone the YPG have also come under attack in the City of Aleppo. On Thursday (1/10/15) YPG positions were attacked in the Sheikh Maqsood neighbourhood which they were able to repel. However these attacks came not from ISIL but from the Army of Conquest/Jais al-Fatah (JAF) coalition - specifically members of ANF. 

These are exactly the rebel groups that CJTFOIR are claiming that Russia are striking instead of ISIL and are making numerous threats - such as turning Syria into quagmire - demanding that Russia stops attacking them.

In an effort to comply with CJTFOIR's demands Russia has begun to knock on the door of CJTFOIR's protective dome around Raqqa. Yesterday (2/10/15) Russian aircraft struck ISIL targets around Deir-ez-Zour which is ISIL's second largest city in Syria some 130km (80 miles) south-west of Raqqa. They also struck ISIL positions close to Raqqa.

Despite some extremely amateurish demands by people such as the UK Defence Secretary Micheal Fallon and UK Prime Minister David Cameron that Russia intensifies its operations within CJTFOIR's protective dome this is creating quite a tense situation. 

Not only are there significant numbers of CJTFOIR aircraft operating over ISIL's heartland even before Turkey introduced its no-strike order those aircraft have been behaving in such a way as to suggest that there are western special forces operating on the ground in the area.

The obvious solution would be for CJTFOIR to make it clear that this deal with Turkey is no longer valid and any nation which wishes to end it's air operations in Iraq and Syria as a result should do so. That would allow CJTFOIR to defeat ISIL and associated groups within the Raqqa area while Russia takes on ISIL and associated groups within the rest of Syria.

The fact that Russia are now operating in Syria has made CJTFOIR's decision to block me on Twitter a major problem. If that block was lifted I could then start putting pressure on Russia to start providing the same level of information about the air-strikes they are carrying out.

Although the situation does force me to be all mysterious for now it's clear that in their rush to protect ISIL and JAF by criticising Russia people like Fallon and Cameron are failing to consider the bigger picture. 

I am aware though that the extremely cold winters combined with the extremely hot summers do tend to bake a sort of hardness into Russians that US President Barack Obama simply does not possess.

15:50 on 3/10/15 (UK date).