Operation Featherweight: Month 15, Week 3, Day 3.

Backed by Russian air-support Syrian government forces have continued their offensive on the borders between Latakia, Aleppo, Homs and Hama provinces.

Building on Friday's (9/10/15) liberation of the village of Al-Basha - around 16km (9.5 miles) north of the City of Homs and around 36km (22 miles) south of the City of Hama - they have also liberated the villages of Jub-al-Ahmar and Kafr-Dulbah which sit around 3km (1.8 miles) and 10km (6 miles) respectively to the west of Al-Basha.

Further to the north the Syrian government have also liberated the town of Khan Sheikhun which sits on the M5 motorway around 35km (21 miles) north of the City of Hama and around 60km (36 miles) south of the City of Idlib. They have also captured the village of Kafr Nabuda which sits around 15km (10 miles) to the west of Khan Sheikhun. This gives the Syrian government control of the strategically important Sahl al-Ghab plain.

Both of these areas were previously held by the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition which is led by Al Qaeda's Syrian affiliate Al Nusra Front (ANF) and the Islamic Movement of the Freemen of the Levant/Harakat Ahrar ash-Sham al-Islamiyya (FML/Ahrar ash-Sham).

Saudi Arabia in particular seems very committed to halting this latest advance by the Syrian government. Reports have begun to emerge that in the 6 days since the operation began some 500 US made Tube-launched, Optically-tracked, Wire-guided (TOW) anti-tank weapons have been delivered to JAF from the Saudi stock-pile of some 13,000 such weapons. Numerous videos have also begun to appear on the Internet of these weapons being used by JAF against Syrian government forces.

Although I don't have the documents in front of me I strongly suspect that this transfer of TOW's to JAF violates the terms of the export license granted to Saudi Arabia that states that Saudi Arabia must be the end user of the weapons.

Around 56km (34 miles) to the north-east of Idlib city the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) continue to battle both the ANF and FML sections of the JAF coalition in the City of Aleppo. Although there have been no reported clashes in the two days since my last post on the subject the YPG have intensified checkpoints and patrols within Aleppo city to deter JAF attacks.

Around 105km (62 miles) to the north-east of Aleppo the YPG have continued to strengthen the 33,000km^2 (20,000mile^2) buffer-zone that stretches from the town of Sarrin on the banks of the Euphrates River all the way to Iraq's border with Iran. The main focus has been on increasing check-points and patrols to deter infiltration by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) alongside mine clearing operations around the village of Ain Issa which sits just 50km (30 miles) north of ISIL de facto capital in Syria Raqqa.

The big development from the YPG controlled north-east is Sunday's (11/10/15) formation of a new coalition known as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Alongside the YPG this includes the Euphrates Volcano/Burkan al-Furat and Revolutionary Army/Jaish al-Thuwar fragments of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and the Syriac Military Council (MFS) - a primarily Syriac Christian militia along with two local tribes. In total this new force has around 60,000 men/women at arms.

Over Sunday (11/10/15) night/Monday (12/10/15) morning the US air-dropped some 45 tonnes of small arms ammunition and grenades to the SDF. Officially this weaponry was only for the use by the Burkan al-Furat and Jaish al-Thuwar parts of the SDF coalition but with them making up just 7% of the SDF while the YPG makes up 80% it seems unlikely that the US can guarantee that some of these weapons won't fall into the YPG's hands.

As such these seems to be a further indication that the US is leaning towards arming the YPG directly. However it is US President Barack Obama's pathological fear of confrontation with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan that is preventing it from doing so.

This could become a serious problem because there seems to be a desire on the part of the FSA forces to lead the YPG into a full-scale attempt to liberate Raqqa itself. You only need to look at the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) efforts to liberates cities such as Tikrit, Ramadi and Fallujah to see that the YPG is in no-way equipped for such a task.

Therefore such an effort would be a suicide mission intended to destroy the YPG so they can be replaced by a Turkish invasion force. The US air-drop could also be viewed as an attempt to make this a reality by strengthening FSA voices within the SDF coalition.

I will come back tomorrow to offer a more in depth assessment of the wider situation. Unfortunately right now I lack the mental wherewithal to do that properly and this is one of those situations where a half-assed job simply won't do.

17:20 on 13/10/15 (UK date).