Thursday, 2 April 2015

The Siege of Lausanne.

On March 26th (26/3/14) the US assembled the Iran and the four other permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) plus Germany in Lausanne Switzerland to prevent Iran obtaining nuclear weapons.

The only flaw in this premise is that no-one thinks that Iran is trying to obtain nuclear weapons. Instead they have been carrying out extensive research in the field of nuclear physics in order to improve their science and technology capabilities. For example the level of engineering expertise needed to produce a single enrichment centrifuge is absolutely mind-boggling. It is widely understood that one of the prototype centrifuges that Iran was building was completely destroyed because the corn starch used to lubricate the latex gloves the workers were using was ever so slightly too coarse.

Almost as a side-effect of these huge advances in science and technology Iran would be left in a position where it would be able break out and build a nuclear deterrent if a certain highly aggressive regional neighbour were to succeed in its efforts to obtain nuclear weapons.

One thing that Iran has certainly been doing is providing financial support, conventional weapons and strategic advice to Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza although due to recent events the relationship between Iran and that off-shoot of the Sunni Muslim Brotherhood has frayed somewhat. The nature of the support that Iran has been giving to these two groups is hard to quantify with the strategic advice being a complete intangible. So instead what Israel has been doing is using the headline grabbing issue of nuclear weapons as a way to exert pressure on Iran in order to stop it going too far in its support for Hezbollah and Hamas.

As a result neither Iran nor Israel have been in a particular rush for the arguments over Iran's nuclear program to end because they both have too much to gain from the argument itself. As Robert Frost might have put it; "The destination doesn't matter because the journey is the thing."

The problem arrived in 2008 when a group of Hollywood celebrities decided to prank us all by making Barack Obama President of the US. Shortly after his inauguration Obama received the Nobel Peace Prize simply by virtue of not being George W Bush. Sadly Obama took this award almost as a sign from God that it was his duty to bring peace to the middle-east by finally ending the conflict between the Israelis and the Palestinians.

Unfortunately lacking in national political experience let alone international experience Obama had absolutely no understanding of how the most complex political game on earth is played and he had no intention of attempting to learn. Instead he - rather like an autistic toddler throwing a tantrum - demanded that the argument be shut down once and for all so everybody would only ever say exactly what they meant!

As almost anything would have sounded intelligent after George W Bush and because Obama is quite charismatic he somehow managed to get the UNSC to agree to this plan and global sanctions were imposed on Iran.

What Obama didn't realise is that by imposing sanctions on Iran he was making the World almost entirely dependent of the Gulf Monarchies led by Saudi Arabia. So when the Saudis wanted to invade Libya no-one was in a position to stop them. When the Saudis wanted to invade Syria no-one was in a position to stop them. When the Saudis wanted to invade Mali - I think you can see where I'm going with this. We're currently up to Yemen.

Eventually most nations realised that granting Saudi Arabia superpower status was a huge mistake and introduced a temporary package that relieved a lot of the most severe sanctions on Iran. The purpose of this Lausanne summit has been to permanently remove all the UNSC sanctions on Iran before this temporary package expired on June 30th (30/6/15).

Although Obama is clearly a man with a lot of issues he needs to work through the main barrier to this goal being achieved has been France.

Despite their epic falling out with the US over the 2003 invasion of Iraq and their general reputation as a bunch of sulky socialists many of the civil servants that work in France's Foreign Ministry - particularly those promoted under Sarkozy - are actually neo-conservatives so hawkish they would put Ayn Rand to shame. The minister currently in charge of the department - Laurent Fabius - was made to look extremely foolish by the Iranians during negotiations in the early-1980's and seems to have held a grudge ever since. Plus judging by their recent UNSC resolution on Palestinian statehood the French also seem very keen on swooping in and claiming the glory for ending the Israel/Palestine conflict.

As such France has often been more obstructive then the US during the negotiations. For example absolutely nobody else involved in the process has been in any way interested in Iran's heavy water reactor at Arak because it has absolutely no role in the production of nuclear weapons whatsoever. However France and France alone has been repeatedly banging the table and demanding that Arak is dismantled before any deal is done.

So GermanWings flight 4U9525 wasn't crashed in France to allow Germany to discuss my case with Spain. Instead it was crashed in France two days before the start of the Lausanne summit in order to dump the whole thing on France's head to encourage them to behave more rationally during the negotiations. After all with the Saudis feeling confident to carry out terror attacks in the French capital Paris France's position on Iran seems suicidal.

Perhaps inadvertently increasing the pressure on France the GermanWings story rapidly spiralled out of control. I will try and come back tomorrow and expand on what is a very long list.

[Start of 4/4/15 Edit]

Due to Eurozone austerity there is was already a degree of tension between Germany and Spain. Plus killing 35 citizens of a country rarely goes down well. So on the following Sunday (29/3/15) Spain reasserted their support for me by killing two British citizens who were living in Benidorm. As a former Olympian the dead man - Peter Tarsey - is considered in the business so to speak.

At around this time last year I interrupted a burglary at my home during a meeting of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). As the latest in a long line of attacks on me during important diplomatic events this triggered roughly half a dozen British citizens being killed in retaliation. The Spanish really led the line with this with the killing of Andrew Bush on the Costa del Sol although I think it was the killed of a London Metropolitan Police Officer assigned to the UN in Somalia that really hit a nerve. Since then there have been no further attacks although I am still waiting for Chief Inspector McHarry to get back to me in order to find a more permanent solution.

Later on Sunday the French added their support to the Spanish position when a British citizen washed up dead on the Cote d'Azur.

On the Monday (30/3/15) the UK responded to these deaths with a British man murdering his Spanish wife and her two children before killing himself on the Gibraltar - a British enclave within Spain. This mainly seems to have been a British enquiry as to why British citizens were being killed in response to the Germanwings murder/suicide. Obviously though that's the sort of enquiry that needs to carry an air of menace with it.

[End of 4/4/15 Edit]

In my post on the subject on Sunday (29/3/15) I thought I made the true purpose of the Germanwings crash clear and was actually told off by the Israelis for lacking subtlety. Although they rapidly shifted their position the US did seem to pick up this and lashed out at the Germans through Monday's shooting at the NSA HQ. Following the Snowden leaks Germany had a massive falling out with the US over the NSA. Despite my years knocking around with lesbian wives and Brighton drug dealers even I think the stuff about the transgender male prostitutes in drag is weird as hell.

Since Monday the US' main objective from Lausanne seems to have been to keep the talks going on forever and prevent people from leaving in a sort of hostage-type situation. In part this was because by keeping the other 4 permanent members of the UNSC locked in on this issue it makes it much harder for them to intervene on issues such as the coup in Nigeria and the Saudi war on Yemen.

Mainly though with Congress likely to remove Obama's authority to participate in these negotiations in the next couple off weeks Obama knew that this was his last chance it make it appear as if he is relevant. I believe at one point the US were even pushing to extend the temporary package beyond the June deadline in order to keep the negotiation going.


 [Start of 4/4/15 Edit]

In order to keep the Lausanne talks going though the US had to pretend that it didn't know the real reason behind the Germanwings crash. So on Tuesday (31/3/15) there was a massive panic when a man who was in prison for burglary escaped from a hospital in Virginia. One of the main ways that threats to my security cause so much disruption is that everytime there is an alert like this people can get confused into thinking it is an alert involving me that could take me out of the game because I have to go to either hospital or prison.

Later on Tuesday the US put on a siege at a firehouse in Pennsylvania. Following the killing of a Jordanian pilot by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) I became very critical of the way Obama was handling the war. Obama responded to this by urging hi supporters to "go out and find their park" which was a coded instruction for his UK based supporters to go and attack me on his behalf. Through the subsequent fire at Dubai's Torch Tower the United Arab Emirates (UAE) who are not traditionally my biggest supporters told Obama that he was behaving like a petulant child.

Also on Tuesday - in response to events in Europe rather then the US - the UK unleashed the story of a frantic manhunt for a 10 year old boy with a rare medical condition who had gone missing little more then a 10 minute walk from my front door. Although about 5 years younger and a good couple of feet shorter the missing boy - Malakhi Chijiutomi-Ghosh - had a similar hairstyle and skin colour to another burglar I had to deal with back in the summer of 2013.

His need for daily medication was a reference to the fact I'm supposed to require daily medication but recently had to explain to my doctor why I hadn't needed a re-supply of that medication in almost a year. The medical condition he was suffering from affects the adrenal glands and can lead to transgenderism. Adrenaline is of course more commonly known as the "fight or flight" hormone that comes into play at times of high stress. I think it's fair to describe the Lausanne talks as highly stressful.

Mainly though the manhunt meant that my local area was swamped with police creating a very strange atmosphere. Fortunately after a couple of hours of me mocking them the UK changed their mind and the boy was found safe and well some 40 miles away. I suspect he'd been at that location all along.

The next day there was a massive fire affecting underground cables in central London close to the London School of Economics (LSE) university although it was a widespread fire. I was once offered a place to study at the LSE but they withdrew it at the last minute because apparently I'm no good at political geography. That decision has haunted the LSE ever since.

As I'm sure you know from Wikileaks diplomatic communications are known as "cables." In the past I have been accused of engaging in underground communications with Iran particularly over the Iranian capture of some British naval personnel. That situation was resolved with neither party making substantial concessions, the captives being freed and war being avoided.

The road most affected by this fire is "The Kingsway." I - Sovereignaka - took that as a rare endorsement.

[End of 4/4/15 Edit]

I still need to go through the fine print but it appears that this evening the siege has been lifted and the UNSC sanctions on Iran are to be scrapped. Saudi Arabia are not likely to take this news in good humour.

20:00 on 2/4/15 (UK date).

Edited at around 18:45 on 4/4/15 (UK date) to add above.

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