Operation Gold Beard: Week 3, Day 4.

In the 10 days since my last post on the subject Saudi led forces have continued their aerial and naval bombardment of Yemen. Yesterday the Saudis claimed that their 18 day assault had killed 500 Yemeni troops although that figure seems rather arbitrary.

Last Monday (6/4/15) the Pakistani Parliament began debating a motion introduced by the Prime Minister to give permission to the nation's armed forces to join in the Saudi war against Yemen. Apparently Prime Minister Sharif could not find a single MP prepared to speak in favour of the motion and it was defeated. On Friday (10/4/15) a second motion was introduced requiring Pakistan to remain neutral in the conflict. This motion passed with ease and as result Pakistan has withdrawn its offer to join the conflict.

The US however has not been able to maintain Pakistan's level of restraint and on Wednesday (8/4/14) announced that it will be speeding up deliveries of weapons to Saudi Arabia in order to support the conflict. On Thursday (9/4/15) the US stepped up its direct involvement by flying refuelling missions to Saudi aircraft carrying out bombing missions.

Despite the US' increased level of involvement there is little sign that the Saudi operation is making much progress. It is perhaps misleading to talk of Yemen's government making advances despite the air-strikes because back in January Yemen's former President Hadi was deposed by members of the Houthi tribe who established a transitional government. The majority of the nation then rallied behind that government. Therefore it is difficult to talk about the government making advances because they were always in control of the country. In the very south of the country however a small group of Sunni tribes did continue to back Hadi and seized control of certain districts in the southern city of Aden. Despite the air-strikes the Yemeni government has continued to expand it's control of those restive districts.

As such it seems that in order to tip the situation in Yemen back towards Hadi's favour the Saudis will need to send in ground forces. However they seem to be afraid of doing this because they tried an invasion of Yemen in 2009 and it failed. Egypt's invasion of Yemen which lasted from 1962 until 1970 is often likened to the US' involvement in Vietnam during the same period. Some even say that the 1973 war with Israel was started to allow Egypt to recover some of the military prestige that it lost in Yemen.

Instead what Saudi Arabia seems to be doing is sending in special forces to recruit, train and arm Sunni fighters. This was confirmed on April 3rd (3/4/15) when independent witnesses saw Saudi special forces collecting air-dropped supplies within Aden. This approach seems extremely risky for global security because the largest Sunni anti-government group within Yemen is Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) who have recently allied themselves with the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). On April 2nd (2/4/15) AQAP took advantage of the Saudi air-strikes to free 300 of their members from Al Mukalla prison. Given the experience of ISIL in Syria I doubt the Saudis will think twice about recruiting AQAP as part of their ground army.

On Thursday (9/4/15) Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khameini declared the Saudi operation to be a "genocide." Despite a death toll that is in the hundreds rather then the hundreds of thousands he may well have a point. Genocide is defined as an attempt to wipe out a religious or ethnic group. If one person is killed with that intent in mind then a genocide is being attempted if only one person has been killed. The Saudis have made clear time and time again that their mission is to destroy the Houthis - a religious and ethnic group that makes up around 40% of Yemen's population.

Although the Saudis have been distinctly less then surgical in their bombardment of Yemen the most pressing humanitarian threat in the country is currently a slow and discreet one. Despite having some of the most fertile farmland on the Arabian Peninsula Yemen still has to import around 90% of its staple foods such as wheat and rice. One of the Saudis first acts of the conflict was to impose a naval blockade of Yemen so these vital imports are no longer being allowed into the country. Along with the bomb damage that has severely disrupted water and sanitation supplies and a huge increase in demand for medical supplies food supplies are dwindling fast creating the risk of a man made famine.

Last Saturday (4/4/15) Russia attempted to tackle this problem by introducing a motion at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) calling for humanitarian supplies to be delivered to Yemen and for humanitarian pauses in the fighting allowing it to be distributed throughout the country. This resolution was discussed in closed session so I'm not even sure of the exact wording but apparently it failed to secure enough support to require a vote.

That should hardly come as a surprise because the UNSC is currently being chaired by Jordan who are participating in the air-strikes. Prior to the session the UK indicated that it would oppose the resolution while the US has not made any comment on its position although I think we can guess.

Despite the failure of the motion the pressure did appear to partly pay off with Saudi Arabia announcing that it would give permission for the International Red Cross to fly in two planeloads on humanitarian supplies. Those flights were finally given permission to take place on Thursday (9/4/15) and a further flight took place on Friday (10/4/15).

Rather then re-visiting the Russian resolution the UNSC currently seems more interested in pursuing a rival Saudi motion that would give formal UN backing to the blockade.

17:50 on 12/4/15 (UK date).