In the week before last the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) liberated the city of Tikrit from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). In Syria a coalition of 'moderate' rebels led by the Al Qaeda affiliated Al Nusra Front (ANF) seized the city of Idlib from the Syrian government. In the suburbs of the Syrian capital Damascus ISIL entered and seized control of 90% of the Yarmouk camp for Palestinian refugees.
As a result this past week has mainly been about letting the dust settle while everybody plans their next move. Within Tikrit efforts have continued to uncover the victims of ISIL massacres. So far 11 mass grave sites have been identified and 164 bodies have been recovered.
Late on Saturday (11/4/15) night ISIL launched a multi-pronged assault on the Baiji oi refinery. Located around 55km (33 miles) north of Tikrit this is Iraq's largest oil refinery and has always been considered part of the operation to liberate Tikrit. This attack was partially successful with ISIL seizing control of part of the perimeter. However by Sunday (13/4/15) afternoon the attack had been repelled with the ISF regaining control of the site and killing 38 ISIL fighters in the process.
This attack really highlights the problem with the strategic bombing approach that the US-led coalition is taking against ISIL. This involves the coalition gathering intelligence about largely static ISIL targets and then going all the way up the chain of command to seek permission to launch bombing raids against those targets. In the attack on the Baiji ISIL advanced on the refinery across a wide distance in large columns of vehicles such as Humvees. If the coalition was mounting regular patrols and had permission to attack so-called targets of opportunity they could have intervened and destroyed the ISIL attack before it converged on the refinery.
Despite the liberation of Tikrit ISIL were on Friday (10/4/15) able to launch an attack on ISF positions in the city leading to a gun battle that lasted several hours and left dozens dead on both sides. Rather then being an attempt to capture the city this seems to be more of a guerrilla-type attack intended to kill ISF soldiers behind the lines. That of course has always been ISIL's plan to defend Tikrit. Rather then trying to retain control of the city ISIL intended to withdraw to the Hawija district and then launch this type of guerrilla attack in order to put the ISF troops on edge in the hope of provoking them into cracking down hard on the local population. The hope being that this would cause the local population to side with ISIL over the ISF allowing them to re-take the city.
ISIL's plan was of course largely thwarted by an operation by the Kurdish Peshmerga who pushed down from Kirkuk into the Hawija district at the same time the ISF launched its Tikrit operation. The attack on the Baiji refinery along with Friday's attack highlights the need for the ISIL positions around Hawija to be dealt with in order to fully secure the sector between Tikrit, Kirkuk and Baiji.
Back in mid-February ISIL launched an offensive in Anbar province that succeeded in capturing the town of Al-Baghdadi which is around 200km (120 miles) north-west of the Iraqi capital Baghdad. They used this as a springboard to launch attacks on the Ain al-Asad airbase which is around 5km (3 miles) away and home to some 300 US Marines. This placed a great deal of pressure on the alliance between the Iraqi government and Anbar's Sunni tribes massively increasing the threat on Baghdad itself. As result it became a priority for the ISF to re-capture Al-Baghdadi and push ISIL back within Anbar.
That operation was declared a success on March 6th (6/3/15). It has though continued throughout the operation to liberate Tikrit with the focus shifting onto the town of Karma which sits around 13km (8 miles) north-east of the city of Fallujah which itself is around 65km (39 miles) west of Baghdad. Amid low level fighting Karma has now been almost completely liberated and buoyed by the liberation of Tikrit the Popular Mobilisation Force (PMF) militia are now pushing to start an operation to liberate Fallujah, Ramadi and "all of Anbar."
Due to its proximity to the capital I've always thought that liberating Anbar is more of a priority then liberating Mosul. However there have been previous attempts to liberate Fallujah and Ramadi that have failed. Most noticeably in September 2014 when an operation was launched only for the US-led coalition to abandon it in favour of randomly bombing Syria instead. Therefore rather then rushing into yet another failed operation I think it would be better for the ISF to wait and co-ordinate with all available forces including the coalition to draw up a comprehensive plan for the liberation rather like they did in Tikrit.
Up in Iraq's Kurdish north the big development is that last Wednesday (8/4/15) ISIL freed some 300 Yezidis that it had taken hostage when it over-ran Sinjar/Shingal back in July 2014. The following day the Peshmerga launched a raid on Tal Afar which sit between Shingal and Mosul freeing a further 31 Yezidi hostages. Along with a series of assassinations by resistance fighters in Mosul which killed around a dozen ISIL commanders this would suggest that the group are slowly loosing control of the area. However in the past when ISIL have been unable to control their hostages they have simply killed them in an attempt to terrorise the forces fighting against them. Therefore this sudden outbreak of humanity could well be an attempt to sweeten ISIL's recent offer of a truce with Peshmerga forces in the area.
Although there can be no suggestion that ISIL be allowed to hold onto the areas under their control it might be worth considering the idea of a temporary truce. With ISIL still in control of areas such as Anbar and Hawija it is going to be some time before the ISF and the coalition are going to be in a position to fully liberate the Nineveh plains region from ISIL. In the meantime the situation on the front-lines there remain rather static with ISIL periodically launching attacks on the Peshmerga. Although these are rapidly repelled they do result in people being killed and injured. Therefore a temporary truce that stops these harassment attacks and brings about the release of more ISIL hostages could be worth exploring.
The Peshmerga however are under no obligation nor pressure to make such an agreement because they remain firmly in control of the situation. In fact on Saturday (11/4/15) they teamed up with the Syrian Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) to launch a small offensive that succeeded in pushing ISIL from their positions around the village of Gabar further moving the front-line away from Shingal.
Within Syria the most urgent situation is the one at the Yarmouk refugee camp. Following four years of war and an international aid effort that has seemed more focused on assisting ISIL then helping civilians the humanitarian situation has become increasingly desperate. Back in December 2014 the UN's World Food Program (WFP) was forced to stop supplies to around 1.7 million people after running out of money. Although supplies have resumed they are now focused on doing the bare minimum of stopping people dying of starvation. With the ISIL seizing control of Yarmouk even that supply lifeline has been forced to stop and the UN Secretary General has likened the situation there to that of a Nazi death camp.
Last Monday (6/4/15) the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) issued a unanimous statement demanding that ISIL allow aid deliveries to resume. Two days later ISIL gave their response to the UNSC by burning the last remaining stock piles of food in Yarmouk claiming that it was un-Islamic.
Under the supervision of the Palestinian Liberation Organisation (PLO) the two main Palestinian militias in Yarmouk reached an agreement on Thursday (9/4/15) to work with the Syrian government to expel ISIL for Yarmouk. That operation cannot begin soon enough.
16:05 on 13/4/15 (UK date).
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment